Friday, April 06, 2007

MLB: First Week Ramblings

- I watched the Dice-K start yesterday at work and between hooting and hollering at every pitch I noticed that the Royals broadcast team once refered to him as "Daisuke Matsui" and once as "Matmatzaka." As always the lesson is that if you're going to let white people announce sports contests, make sure they're younger than 50. White people and Walt Frazier.

- My koworker Karl sent me this article about an ambidextrous college pitcher today. For a long time Ian has been clamoring about the benefits of an switch-pitcher and I have been saying that it's almost impossible for someone to develop pitching-level arm strength in both arms. Well, Pat Venditte has proven me wrong and Ian right- a first in the history of our friendship. I think Venditte should take this whole two-handed thing further and develop an nasty two-handed breaking pitch that he delivers over his head as if he were a soccer player tossing a ball in from the sideline. Then he could give it a cool name like "The Annihilator" and mug for the crowd when he's about to pull it out with two strikes on a guy. Sorry, I've been reading too many wikipedia professional wrestling articles today.

- The fantasy season is only three games deep and already I've decided that my drafting of A.J. Burnett over Rich Harden was the stupidest thing I will do this year. On the team in question (I have three) my pitching is anchored by Dave Bush and Rich Hill with Brad Lidge in my bullpen. Yikes. And it was all a panicky brainfart during the 12th round when I saw I hadn't drafted a starter other than Kazmir yet. And I also drafted him before Papelbon. I'm going to propose that the league commissioner just dissolve my team. Not literally though, I'm just being dramatic.

- I know it's still early in the season, but I love that a Yankees starter has not lasted further than four and a third innings in the first two games this year. And I love that A-Rod popped out with the bases-loaded last night in the eighth when the Yankees lost by only one run. I love that too. And I love that for every Jeter error, A-Rod chokejob, or loss to the Devil Rays more and more New York fans jump on the Mets' bandwagon. That's what I love most of all.

Thursday, April 05, 2007

The Greatest Baseball Preview in America: Conclusion

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: Trillionaires Collide!*
*Might be overstating it a bit.


The day before the season's first full slate of games, Saj and I will break down the greatest rivalry in sports this side of Sorenstam-Pak. This rivalry, first born out of tradition and mutual disdain, has evolved into baseball version of the Cold War, with each side outspending all other competitors in the time-honored male activity of oneupsmanship. The last two seasons have had the New York Yankees spending over 200 million dollars each year, an accomplishment no other American sports organization has ever come close to. While the Red Sox stood a solid 70 million behind, that was still enough to be comfortably ahead of the third highest spender. Now the rough 2007 numbers have the Red Sox approaching 160 million, while the Yanks have only slightly trimmed down their gargantuan budget.

But now 'tis the season to see how well money can swing a bat and paint the corner. Time to break it down, position by position. Saj and I will alternate posting and responding at each position. Tomorrow afternoon, check back in for our official predictions of the 2007 season. We will then take a week off to recooperate from the longest month of our lives. (My fingers won't stop bleeding.)

Once again, my font is in bold, while Saj's font is regular. Without further ago, the conclusion to our month long baseball preview:

THE BOSTON RED SOX AND THE NEW YORK YANKEES

CATCHER


To properly gauge who has the better catcher, one needs to decide what is the catcher's
most important job on the team. Is it to provide good hitting to extend the potence of a lineup? Is it to be a human backstop behind the plate? Is it to be a de facto leader of the team? Is it to handle the pitching staff? The Red Sox and Yankees have two of the better catchers of the last six to eight years, but of late they have become known as such for two different reasons. Jorge Posada has consistently been one of the top hitting catchers in the game. He has hit 20 or more homeruns in six of the last seven seasons (the other season was 19). Last season he hit 24 home runs, drove in 93 runs, and played 143 games while hitting an admirable .277. As a switch hitter, he's more than a catcher, but an asset at the plate.


Jason Varitek, meanwhile, is much more of an asset behind the plate. His offensive numbers are in steady declinaton, but no one in baseball calls a better game or handles a pitching staff with as much skill. His powers of making a pitcher their best even extend into the fantasy realm. Last year, my fantasy baseball team, brilliantly named Cheney's Pacemaker, was in first place right through August. However, in mid-August at our trade deadline, I decided to shore up my last week link before the playoffs, and traded Varitek in a deal for Josh Willingham. My pitching staff promptly fell apart, and my first place regular season team lost in the semi-finals. That is the power of Varitek.

Lately, of course, mentioning power and Varitek in the same sentence is impossible. He looked increasingly terrible at the plate last year and looks atrocious this spring, hitting barely over .100. So we return to the beginning of this verbose catcher preview. Which do I prioritize as the chief task of the catcher? While all are important, I'll take the guy that can lower my pitching staff's ERA. Slight Edge: Red Sox

Ian, I agree with you. Posada is a better hitting catcher (Varitek will be atrocious at the plate this year), which may be more valuable than a catcher's effect on a pitching staff (great BP article), but as they both enter their age 35 season I just can't see Posada hitting like he used to which is where the bulk of his value lies. As far as more conventional defensive stats Posada has given up 43 passed balls in the last four years to Varitek's 11 and while Posada has a better caught-stealing percentage, people tend to run on him more for whatever reason and that could skew the numbers. In the end I give the edge to Varitek because there is no way in hell Posada could ever grow such an awesome goatee. And do I even have to mention how awesome THIS was? Edge: Red Sox.


FIRST BASE

The Yankees are a mystifying team in that for all their All-stars they always have one or two fundamentally terrible players in their lineup. Karim Garcia was one. Miguel Cairo was another. And the list goes on. In the spirit of that time-honored tradition, the 2007 Yankees have handed the first base reins over to the two-headed monster that is the Doug Mientkiewicz/Josh Phelps experience. Mientkiewicz is very, very bad at the plate. And while good, he's overrated as a defensive specialist. I think it was Confucius who said, "Fielding first base better than Kevin Millar is like beating a cripple in a footrace. You may win but that does not make you Jesse Owens." And that Confucius was a smart fella, I'll tell you that much. Oh, and Giambi might suit up at first for a few games (especially in inter-league play). Get ready to Tivo that steroid-fueled three ring circus. The guy can barely touch his toes with a yardstick.

Meanwhile the Red Sox are suiting up a man affectionately known to all as "The Greek God of Walks." Kevin Youkilis is an on-base machine who, as a transplanted third baseman, plays plus defense. He's very well suited to hit second ahead of Manny Ortez and the gang. Edge: Red Sox.


Am I the only one who was surprised that the Yankees didn't enter the now over Todd Helton talks? Either they upgrade at first base OR they drive up the price on the Sox. Giambi out of the infield is truly addition by subtraction, and the Yankees have enough hitting as it is, so I don't blame them for trying to shore up the defense of their entire infield (Can you say E-Rod?) by starting better defensive first basemen. Still, one cannot deny the pluses Youkilis brings to the table as a perfect table setter for the Sox loaded middle of the order. I'd like to see him hitting #1 or #2 all year. The Yankees platoon, defensively, is not far superior to Youkilis', but they will be a very weak spot in the Yankees offense, while Youkilis is an intergral part of the Sox' lineup. Edge: Red Sox


SECOND BASE

By the end of this season, Robinson Cano will be Yankees fans' second favorite player after his double play partner. He will hit well over .300, play a decent second base, and make every Yankee fan proud that he's one of the few players that came up through the system. The Red Sox counter with their own home grown product, Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia has been a name good Red Sox fans have known for a couple years. The 2007 season was always his target date of arrival, but now that he's here, Sox fans are more nervous than excited. With Hanley Ramirez, Freddy Sanchez, and Anibal Sanchez doing so well as ex-Red Sox farm products, Sox fans might become furious that the one that remained was the one that didn't amount to anything. Edge: Yankees

Agreed, Cano is good. Nothing to add. Edge: Yankees.


SHORTSTOP

This guy versus this guy? Long story short I am finally willing to admit that I want to be Derek Jeter. For the longest time I was 100% sure Jeter was overrated but he had a MVP-caliber season last year and he's shored up his spotty defense in recent years. He's still overrated by Yankee fans but he's a Hall-of-Famer in both the sport of baseball and the sport of banging impossibly hot and famous women. And for some goddamn reason the Red Sox paid Julio Lugo $36 million. Edge: Yankees.


Nah, I gotta take Lugo over Jeter. And then I'll take the Yankees to go all the way. Both statements are laughable. Edge: Yankees.

THIRD BASE

Man, this hurts. Where's Scott Cooper when you need him? Mike Lowell is respectable. He works hard, he's a good clubhouse guy, he can hit for power and hit in the gaps. Defensively, he plays a great third base. He has a goatee. And that's about it. He's not getting any younger and this will probably be his last year in Boston. On the Yankees' side, we have what could be the most talented player in the game. Sure, he's a bigger head case than Jason Voorhees, but he's still a five tool player who scares you for six innings a game and 140 games a year. Unless you're David Wright or Miguel Cabrera, the third base matchup will always go to the Bronx Bombers. Edge: Yankees.

I don't want to talk about it. Edge: Yankees

OUTFIELD

Very difficult to tell this one. So I'm going to say it's a wash. A healthy Coco Crisp and a healthy J.D. Drew alongside Manny Ramirez could eclipse the production of the vaunted Yankees outfield of Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, and Johnny Damon. All three of them aren't getting any younger and Matsui might be the only to reach upper 20's in homeruns. But they'll stay healthy which is more than you can say for the Red Sox. Edge: Even


What are you smoking? *Editor's note: You know what I'm smoking* As a whole this Yankee outfield is easily better than the Red Sox outfield. One by one, it's Manny over Matsui, but Damon and Abreu by a mile over Crisp and Drew. Edge: Yankees

DESIGNATED HITTER

Whew. Big Papi puts a stop to this Yankees run of four straight edges since the Sox took the first two. Giambi is a very good hitter. Nice OBP. Good eye. Good power, especially at Yankee Stadium. But David Ortiz is the best designated hitter in the league, and one of the top five hitters in all of baseball. Edge: Red Sox

Completely in agreement. Jason Giambi IS a very good hitter and his last two seasons in Oakland were actually statistically better than anything anyone else (not named Barry Bonds) has done in the last two decades of baseball, including Pujols, Hafner, and Ramirez. but Giambi is five or six seasons removed from those seasons and presumably from steroid abuse. He's still a dangerous hitter in a pro-lefty park but David Ortiz is 1B to Hafner's 1A in terms of the best DH's in the league. And he has the Papi-mystique, the 500-foot homeruns, the personality, and the second-best righthanded hitter in the game protecting him in the lineup. Simply put, David Ortiz is the best non-Ryan Howard bet to hit 60 homeruns this year. Edge: Red Sox

LINEUP

Edge: Yankees

Quick lineup note: It's easy to forget how good the Yankees lineup actually is. They lead the league in runs scored last year (scoring runs being the principle objective of an offense) by 60 and they are a good bet to do it again. But Cano is their only regular younger than 31 and their defense is weak. Edge: Yankees

PITCHING

I'm really happy to state this: the Red Sox have an unequivocally better pitching staff than the Yankees. You can't even argue this point. Top to the bottom in the rotation, and even, finally, in the bullpen. Schilling, even despite his opening day hiccup, Beckett, and Matsuzaka might be baseball's best top three and with Papelbon closing and guys like Romero, Donnelly, Pineiro, Timlin around to set up, this Red Sox bullpen is the best it has been since the days of Hipolito Pichardo and Rich Garces. Meanwhile the Yankees had to start THIS GUY on opening day, Andy Pettitte is sporting grey streaks in his hair (and a balky back), Mike Mussina will be 38 this season, and Chien-Ming Wang started the season on the DL with a strained right hamstring. Hamstring injuries don't just fade away (SEE ALSO: Junior Griffey) and his right leg is the one he uses to push off the rubber. How effective will his power sinker really be this season? Speaking of power sinkers, don't you need a good infield defense to complement them? I guess Brian Cashman never got that memo. And their bullpen looks just about as crappy as any other Yankees bullpen since they overused Tom Gordon and Paul Quantrill: cross your fingers for a few innings and let Mariano Rivera dominate the ninth. In the end the Yankees will score enough runs to make the playoffs in spite of their pitching, but to stick around in the playoffs I'll take Schilling, Beckett, and Daisuke. Edge: Red Sox.


My thoughts almost exactly. Though your comparison of lineups reeked of bias, this pitching comparison is spot on. I don't have anything else to add to the starters. For the bullpen, I'd say that Joel Piniero does not help ones argument when discussing the strength of Boston's bullpen. (I expect him to be traded soon.) Who you did forget was Craig Hansen and Manny Del Carmen, who are both very young, improving, and won't have to be relied upon to get big outs in the 8th and 9th. Papelbon's move to the bullpen I did not agree with, but it did mean that Boston's bullpen became a strength, as Romero, Timlin, and Donnelly is actually a damned good trio of set up men. Edge: Red Sox.


Final tally:
Yankees 4
Red Sox 4

Here we go again.


Ian calling me a biased sports fan is like Mussolini calling FDR a fascist.


Saj using humor as a defense mechanism is as automatic as Papelbon in the ninth.



Previous Previews

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Al East
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Devil Rays

AL Central
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
Kansas City Royals

AL West
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL East
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Florida Marlins
Washington Nationals

NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals
Houston Astros
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs

NL West
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks