Wednesday, November 01, 2006

NBA: Predictions

12:58 PM
I: The NBA is back. Rejoice. In ten years, the NBA will be as huge as the NFL and MLB. Mark my words.

The successful business that Bulls Michael Jordan left behind in 1998 has struggled almost as much as Wizards Michael Jordan. The NBA of yesteryear was popular, suave, and attracted fans of all ages...just like Bulls MJ. The NBA of late was a shell of itself, unsuccessfully trying to do things it once could, but falling painfully short...just like Wizards MJ (who can forget that missed dunk in the All Star Game?).


Until the NBA makes its full comeback, NBA fans like myself have to continually absorb insults thrown upon us and our precious league. The only good thing that came from this dip in NBA interest is that the few remaining NBA fans are strong, proud, and true. You can liken it to Red Sox fans before the 2004 World Series. If you were a Sox fan, you were probably a hardcore Sox fan.

Thankfully for the NBA, talented charismatic stars have made it through their formative years and are ready to take this country by storm. The best talent in the league is young. It starts with LeBron, D-Wade, and Carmelo and continues with Bosh, Arenas, Chris Paul, Yao, Amare, Dwight Howard, Josh Smith, and soon Gerald Green. Add in the plethora of veteran established stars still in their primes like Kobe, Duncan, Garnett, Dirk, Vince, Tmac, Nash, Pierce, Jermaine, Ray Allen, Brand, and Iverson, and you have a league that is bursting at the seams with marketable talent. Imagine if Shaq were still in his prime? (I think that has gone unnoticed...Shaq's admirable job of bridging the gap between MJ and LeBron. Sure, he's appreciated for the four titles and being the dominant player in the league, but not much is said about him, more than any other player of the last eight years, keeping the league alive. Just thought I should say it.)


Needless to say, I'm very excited to be back in the NBA season. Saj, I'd like to see some of your predictions. I want predicted division winners, surprises, dissapointments, Conference and NBA Finals. Feel free to just list them, and then I'll come back with my thoughts and even throw in some details to my picks.

As little as I know about the NFL, I know less about the NBA. But you're right, the NBA is chock full of very, very talented young men. I was watching the Knicks/Grizzlies game last night with my roommate Rob (a semi-Knicks fan) and was enjoying it for no other reason than Walt Frazier's amazing color commentary (scroll down and read under "Broadcasting" here.) when the most anemic triple overtime game in history broke out. I'm not going to harp on Jamal Crawford's (lack of) shot selection or how Isaiah Thomas left Channing Frye on the bench in crunchtime or even how terrible a game that actually was. What I will harp on is the fact that Rudy Gay and Hakim Warrick looked very, very good for the Grizzlies. And in the overtime periods, rookie Kyle Lowry, stepping in for the lame duck Damon Stoudamire, ran the offense like a veteran. My point, even though it's not so clear, is that there are A LOT of good young players in the NBA, even the guys that aren't stars (yet).

Predictions: I'm not good at these, I don't know enough, but here goes. NBA Champion: Los Angeles Clippers. Eastern Conference Champion: New Jersey (Brooklyn) Nets. Over/under on Pacers getting arrested on firearms and/or drug charges: 4. Number of times we see that quixotic "LeBrons" commercial where afro-ed Lebron does a fancy dive into the pool with his cellphone in his pocket: 157. MVP: Old man LeBron edges little boy LeBron in the closest MVP vote in history and all four LeBron incarnations are in the top ten. Most unlikely All-Star: Kevin Martin. Most likely All-Star that doesn't deserve it: Kobe (because he's an a******). Worst free throw percentage: Ben Wallace. NBA star I'd least like to fight: Ron Artest. NBA star I'd most like to fight: Steve Nash. Cutest: Dwyane Wade. Ok, I should probably stop there. Thoughts?


Nice ideas. I'll continue the format.
Most exciting thing about the coming season: LeBron James playing in four rounds of the playoffs. As you know, I teach high school. My oldest kid was 9 when Jordan was last a Chicago Bull. My youngest kids weren't born yet when the Bulls won their first championship. My point is, the Jordan they remember was the MJ that was a shell of himself in Washington. They never got to see greatness unfold. Well, you can see where this going. This generation now has its Michael Jordan.
Least exciting thing: The Atlantic Division. It's the Nets, two teams that are rebuilding, and two teams that are a mess. Due to this, I fully expect the Nets to have the best record in the Eastern Conference. Miam, Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, Washington, and maybe Orlando will be beating up on each other all year in their tighter divisions. Hopefully, Little Lawrence Frank can rest Kidd and let the underrated Marcus Williams play more and more minutes, or at the very least sing the Munchkin Land song.
Feel good story: New Orleans will continue the sports resurgence of the city, continuing what the Saints started. Chris Paul is their Reggie Bush (quantum young talent) and Stojakavich is their Drew Brees (established, talented Free Agent coming off an injury). The Hornets, despite the difficult conference, WILL make the playoffs.
Feel bad story: Vince Carter will have a great year because it's his contract year, reminding us once again of how much a jerk he was in Toronto.
Funniest thing: Increased ejections. We've already Seen three players tossed out of gams for arguing, including Rasheed Wallace. Good luck with that one.
Most contrived storyline: Dallas and San Antonio hating each other.
Legitimate storyline: Can LeBron match Wade? Can Carmelo catch up to either? Can Chris Bosh say "What the f*** about me?!" in French-Canadian?
Huge years, perhaps unexpectedly: Ron Artest, Larry Hughes, Kirk Hinrich, Caron Butler, Emeka Okafor, Peja Stojakavich, Mike Miller, Ricky Davis, Lamar Odom, Shareef Abdur-Rahim.
MVP Race: Lebron, Duncan, Kobe, Nash, Kidd, Vince, Wade, Billups, Pierce, Dirk, Yao.
Atlantic: New Jersey (57 wins), Boston (41), Philly, Toronto, New York (21)
Central (TOUGH DIVISION): Chicago (53), Cleveland (51), Detroit, Milwaukee, Indiana (33)
Southeast: Miami (50), Orlando (48), Washington, Atlanta, Charlotte (27)
Southwest (TOUGHEST DIVISION): San Antonio (59), Dallas (56), New Orleans, Houston, Memphis (35) Northwest: Denver (55), Utah (47), Seattle, Minnesota, Portland (26)
Pacific: Pheonix (58), LA Lakers (51), LA Clippers (50), Sacramento, Golden State (29)


Eastern Conference: New Jersey, Chicago, Miami, Cleveland, Detroit, Orlando, Washington, Boston
Western Conference: San Antonio, Pheonix, Denver, Dallas, Lakers, Clippers, Utah, New Orleans

EC Final: Cleveland d. New Jersey
WC Final: San Antonio d. Pheonix

NBA Final: San Antonio d. LBJ in 6

Tuesday, October 31, 2006

NFL: Week 8 Recap

7:14 AM
I: Hold on to your seats. The NFL cannot have a better matchup coming up. On Sunday night, it's going to be Brady and Manning, playing as well as they ever have, on national television. They have the best two records in the best conference in football. It might be the best rivalry going in the sport. Good times for NFL fans.

But before we get there, let's recap on the weekend that was. My issues:
Did a dominating blow out of the 49ers smooth over any Chicago Bears concerns?
Are the Falcons back? Has Vick finally grown up?
Can the Cowboys make a deep playoff run with Romo as their quarterback?
Who are the best five teams in football? Do the Ravens, even with a bounce back game on the road against the formerly 5-1 Saints, belong among them? (I say no)

I await your thoughts on week 8.


2:00 PM
So much to say. As for the Bears: the starting field position for each of their five touchdowns on Sunday was, respectively, San Francisco's 15, 41, 13, 24, and their own 30. Four of those touchdown drives came directly after turnovers and the fifth came after a 42 yard David Hester punt return. Simply put, they were almost never in a position where they had to move the ball down the field to score points. Overall, the 49ers turned the ball over five times on Sunday, which begs the excellent quasi-philosophical question: which came first the Bears' ability to create turnovers or the 49ers' propensity to give them? Sorta like the "chicken or the egg" question except in this case the egg is wearing a gold helmet and has a large crack down the side. The answer lies somewhere in the middle (a hybrid chicken-egg, like a marshmallow Peep but not marshmallow) and will likely not be resolved until Chicago loses in the first round of the playoffs to a team with an offense that runs the ball well and doesn't turn the ball over.

As for Vick: two games does not a grown man make, but I will say that the Falcons play calling has been spectacular as of late. The play action roll out is, for anyone who has ever played with Vick in a video game, an absolute essential. You bring him outside, fake towards the line of scrimmage, pull the ball back up and fire a 30 yard completion. Cake. If it works in video games, it HAS to work in real life.

As for Romo and the Cowboys: yes, they can make a deep playoff run with Romo. In 2003, they made the playoffs with Quincy Carter as their starting quarterback. As a rule of thumb, whenever you've been embarassed by the Giants on Monday night and your offensive line is made of cardboard and you're essentially starting a rookie quarterback AND your head coach has more breast meat than Boston Market, you will probably make the playoffs because Quincy Carter did it in 2003 with an inferior team.

Best five? Chicago, Indy, New England, Giants, Falcons. I'm going to put Baltimore at six simply because I'm afraid Ray Lewis might read this and he is scary.

More talking points: Reggie Wayne's Big Adventure, How F****** Good Tom Brady Looked (knock on wood), and why my fantasy teams are floating in a stool-filled toilet bowl right now (hint: Jon Kitna had a bye week).


2:26 PM
The Giants and Falcons over the Broncos and Chargers? I don't knock the Broncos for losing to the Colts. Manning is playing out of his gord, and so is Brady, which makes Sunday night such a fantastic matchup. I can't shake the memory of Denver going into Foxboro and punishing the Pats. Between that and the Broncos playoff win last year, I keep them the #3 team. If, however, the Pats can beat the Colts the week after the Colts beat the Broncos, the Pats leap up to #2. (And how about Indy having to travel to Denver and New England back to back weeks?) As for the Chargers, their games are finally starting to resemble their talent, and their talent is as good as anyone. But to say I have concerns about their coach is like saying Chuck Schumer has concerns with Howard Dean as DNC Chairman. ZING.

Anyway, a quick run down: 1. Bears 2. Colts 3. Broncos 4. Pats 5. Chargers 6. Ray Lewis 7. Giants 8. Falcons 9. Bengals 10. Saints and then a line is drawn before teams like the Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Panthers, and Eagles. I like how the Pats play the top 3 teams on this list. It's great playoff preparation.

Reggie Wayne is arguably the best #2 receiver in the game, the arguments being Terry Glenn, Keyshawn, and TJ Houszmendahdahahdamzmdandheamdahada. It's remarkable to me how Marvin Harrison never speaks up. He really just wants to win, and he'll accept the other team's lock down corner and double teams to do it. If he can afford it, Reggie Wayne should buy Harrison dinner every Monday.

We're almost halfway through the season...how about them Steelers? Any other disappointments this year?

Disappointments? Miami. I know, I know, you were the only one clairvoyant enough to predict this but I had these guys in the playoffs. It just goes to show you that I'm terrible at everything.

And the Steelers, wow. Are they allowed to bench Ben Roethlisberger? Will the city of Pittsburgh boycott the team if they do that? And how often can you put all the blame for a team's loss on the quarterback? I mean all of it. The Raiders did absolutely NOTHING to help themselves win that game. They ran 49 plays for 98 yards. If Roethlisberger had even thrown one less interception the Steelers probably win. It's time for people to admit that he isn't that good. Sure he won a Superbowl, but Trent Dilfer won a Superbowl once too.


3:22 PM
Is there any team flying under the radar...say 3 losses or more...that you think can still make a run at a Superbowl? I say the Panthers still have a great shot, as you alluded to the Bears being in trouble come January, while the Panthers are a proven playoff success.

Also, with Brady and Manning playing such great football, is it safe to say that we have a legitimate Montana-Marino duo going on? Can anyone say with certainty that neither of these quarterbacks will one day be considered among the greatest five quarterbacks to step on the field? Also, who's the 3rd, 4th, and 5th best quarterbacks in the league, and how far back are they?

It may be too early to talk about runs at the Superbowl, I could see half the teams in the league there, but I will say this: look out for the Kansas City Chiefs. Remember, you heard it here FIRST. And who knew that Trent Green was older than Drew Bledsoe? Not even Trent Green knew that.

Of course I have no real reason to tell people to watch out for the Chiefs except that Herman Edwards has not gotten nearly enough facetime in the national media this season.

Third, Fourth, Fifth best quarterbacks in football? It's hard to say the way some of these guys are playing but: Carson Palmer, Matt Hasselbeck, Marc Bulger/Drew Brees (I cheated on the last one).


Somewhere, Donovan McNabb's mother threw up Campbell's chunky soup.