Why Josh Beckett Must Start Game 4

If you don't know where you come down on the Beckett or Wakefield argument for tonight's Game 4, just consider this hypothetical scenario: If tonight's Game 4 were rained out, would Josh Beckett pitch tomorrow's game 4 on normal rest?

The answer is unequivocally yes.

And that's why Josh Beckett is the no brainer for tonight.

Is anyone questioning Beckett's effectiveness if he pitches tonight? He's 2-0 in his playoff career on three days rest. He threw one of the great World Series games on three days rest. He's completely in the zone. Sending him against Paul Byrd is the closest thing the Red Sox have to a sure thing in this series.

That is, except, Josh Beckett vs. Jake Westbrook in a potential Game 7.

And that's the crux of the issue, and neither of the WEEI guys acknowledged it in the debate this morning. The Red Sox have the potential to send Josh Beckett, head and shoulders their best pitcher, out to the mound three times this series, including a Game 7 where he'd be on FULL rest, thanks to scheduled offdays after Games 4 and 5.

I understand that the Red Sox don't want to push up Schilling and DiceK into games 5 and 6. I understand they want to give them longer than normal rest. Fine. Throw Wakefield in Game five instead of four. That's right, I'm saying let's go Beckett-Wakefield instead of Wakefield-Beckett.

The difference? Game 7.

Down two games to one means the Sox have to win three out of the next four. If Wakefield, on 18 days rest and a sore back and a cortizone shot and a terrible September, puts the Sox in a 3-1 series hole after tonight, then Boston needs to win three in a row, and that includes a DiceK Game 7 start. That's a tall order against a good Cleveland Indians club.

Finally, to really drive home the point, let's look a the four possible scenarios after tonight.

1. Wakefield starts, Red Sox lose, falling down 3 games to 1. Read the above paragraph.
2. Wakefield starts, Red Sox win, tying the series 2-2. The Red Sox still have to win two out of three, with two games coming against Sabathia and Carmona, and the last being another Matsuzaka start.
3. Beckett starts, Red Sox win, tying the series 2-2. The Red Sox have to win two out of the next three, but if they can win either Game 5 or 6, then they have Beckett on full rest against Westbrook in Fenway for Game 7. This is the most likely scenario.
4. Beckett starts, Red Sox lose, falling down 3 games to 1. Is there any possibility Beckett loses to Paul Byrd? I mean, at all?

Josh Beckett must start Game 4.

Reader email - July 3

Reader Keith from Connecticut asks:

You guys don't think Dan Haren should be starting for the A.L.? Before Sunday, 1.91 ERA in the ever so powerful American League.

Great point, Keith. I like Danny Haren, and for more reasons than simply his resemblence to me. His record (10-2) is comparable to Beckett's (11-2), and his ERA is just over a run lower. All that being said, I feel it's been Beckett's start to lose ever since he was 9-0 and 11-1. Those are simply eye-popping records. Haren was 0-2 and has played catch up ever since. Ten straights wins is great for any resume, but Beckett was in the driver's seat and hasn't done anything to lose the honor. And let's not forget Haren's 1.58 ERA has fallen to 2.20 in the last four starts. His lights out streak is definitely over.

And honestly, I don't believe everything I'm saying right now, but there is one more point to be made. The 2003 World Series MVP is the bigger name and this is the All-Star Game. I expect Beckett to get the nod. I also don't think it's out of the question that those two gentlemen's start this week may determine who's on the mound in the first inning. One of them gets shelled and one of them pitches well... that could decide it.

You know what's funny about this debate? There's a real possibility Leyland will choose his own player - Justin "no-no" Verlander.

What do you think, Saj?


Excellent question, Keith, excellent question. Ignoring my fanboy-ism (which is the only reason I chose Beckett anyway) and Ian's crafty exercise in rationalization there is no reason why Dan Haren should not start the All-Star Game. Bay area starter, having a fantastic season, Ian thinks he looks like him. No reason, except for C.C. Sabathia. While Haren leads the AL in ERA, ERA+, WHIP, and OPS against, Sabathia holds the edge in wins, innings pitched, K's, K/BB, and donuts consumed in a single sitting. I'm not saying that makes him more deserving, but 116 strike outs and only 17 walks is pretty ridiculous. As is the two dozen Krispy Kremes he demolished in twelve minutes.

Of course this is all subject to the caprice of Jim Leyland. He could go with his boy (Verlander), his old boy (Beckett), or the best pitcher on the planet (Johan Santana) in lieu of either Haren or Sabathia. I think Leyland goes with Haren. And I think Haren ends the season with an ERA above 3.50. And I think Santana drops his ERA another half run and wins the Cy Young Award. And I think I'll have ice cream for lunch today. Those are my thoughts.

Thanks for the emails, readers.