How long until Yankee fans plunge off Cloud Nine, and while hurdling at an ever quickening speed towards the earth, realize that Roger Clemens is not a parachute?
How long before they realize he never pitched more than seven innings last year for the Houston Astros, and only pitched seven innings five times? How long before they realize that their bullpen is taxed enough? That bringing in a 5-6 inning pitcher is not a good idea?
How long before they realize that the best hitting opponent in the NL Central last year (St. Louis Cardinals) was ranked 14th in major league baseball in batting average, with the other four teams ranked 26th and lower?
How long before they realize his five years with the Yankees produced ERA's not of the 2.98, 1.87, 2.30 variety that he earned in Houston, but of 4.60, 3.70, 3.51, 4.35, and 3.91, and that was in his late 30's?
In sum, with Clemens at 44 (45 in August), how long until they realize he's returning to the AL East, with better lineups both in the division and the American League, needing to throw more pitches (quality ones at that) than he did in the NL, thereby throwing less innings, thereby making the Yankees' bullpen throw more innings, thereby tiring them out by September and October, when the lineups become even tougher? How long until they realize they spent a record contract to get a 44-year-old with all of the above going against him?
Saj, come November, will the Yankees organization and will Yankee fans be happy they made this signing?
Sure, why not? I'm not a fatalist but I do think it was inevitable that Roger Clemens would pitch in a Yankees uniform this season. After an April like they had Roger's theatrical 7th inning announcement on Sunday was a foregone conclusion. But how much does this really help the Yankees? Very little I say. But that very little could be important. Let's say that Roger's value over a replacement player (say Igawa, Karstens, etc.) is probably less than people are saying. He's still a 6 inning pitcher and even if those six innings are very good that's still three your beleaguered bullpen will have to pitch. Best case scenario: Roger, from June 1 until the end of the season, is worth one to four more wins than a replacement pitcher. That doesn't seem like a lot, and it isn't. But if you're the Yankees and you're competing for a division title, four wins at the top side of the bell curve can be huge. This all goes back to the marginal cost of wins in baseball: as you get closer to the top of the league for each win you will have to pay more. Apparently the Yankees think that paying Roger between $5 million and $20 million a win is a worthwhile investment- not to mention keeping those wins away from the Red Sox.
That being said, Clemens landed where he should have landed. Plain and simple, he would have helped the Red Sox, with their great (so far, knock on wood) pen and their big three starters, much less than he will help the Yankees, especially if you consider Lester vs. Igawa/Karstens as the replacement players. Why not go somewhere where a large segment of the fans don't hate you and you could potentially be the best pitcher on the staff instead of the fourth best? This is all a moot point anyway, Clemens won't even be a top ten pitcher in the American League, let alone all of baseball.
Showing posts with label Houston Astros. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Houston Astros. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
Saturday, March 10, 2007
The Greatest Baseball Preview in America: Houston Astros
Quick thoughts on the Reds: I forgot how long the Reds were in the playoff race last year. They played their hearts out. It's why I feel so terrible for teams like the Reds, Royals, and Pirates of the world. When they top out, when everything comes together, they'd be lucky to make the playoffs. If the Yankees, Angels, or BoSox had a season like the Reds last year, it'd be an utter disappointment. My point? Cincinnati sucks.
Houston Astros
Pitching: You gotta love Roger Clemens. Wait, did I say love? Excuse me. You gotta dislike Roger Clemens. Understand that the Astros are the only team he'd sign with. He knew it last year and he knows it this year. Why make a team scramble, not knowing if you're going to be at or near the front of their rotation? It'd be so much easier on the Astros if they knew if he was playing or not. Brett Favre slows down the Green Bay Packers if they don't know if he'll be back under center the next year. Ricky Williams did the same thing when he retired right before training camp, leaving the Dolphins no time to effectively plug the bong shaped hole in their backfield. These athletes have become entirely too selfish in this decision making process. I'm all for them trying to get the most money possible, it is a business after all. However, in business, you should handle yourself as a professional and treat the franchise you might end up joining with respect.
Anyway, the Astros pitching is okay. They have a nice ace in Oswalt, but if Clemens doesn't come back, and with Pettitte gone back to the Bronx, they'll miss that veteran presence in their rotation. It severely weakens the strength on the back end of that rotation.
Bullpen: Like their starting pitching not knowing if they'll have Clemens, their bullpen is similarly pondering the state of Brad Lidge. Unlike Clemens, we know Lidge will lace up the cleats. Like Clemens, the Astros have NO idea what they will get out of Lidge, and this affects the rest of the bullpen. Is Wheeler closing with an inadequate set up man in front of him? Or do Wheeler and Lidge go back to shortening the game to 7 innings for the Astros starters? Or maybe this is the year Lidge blows yet another save to Pujols and the Cards, resulting in Lidge heading over to jump off the old Astrodome.
Hitting: They made a nice addition with Carlos Lee, finally concentrating on some offense in an offseason. He will provide great protection from Berkman, who put up some monster numbers last year (45, 136, 95). I'm eager to see if Morgan Ensberg can bounce back to his 2005 form, where he hit 36 dongs and broke the 100 RBI mark. If he returns to form and you throw him in there with Berkman and Lee in a hitters' ballpark, Houston might make a run at 90 wins even without Clemens.
Miscellaneous: I want Mark Lorette to play. And if he doesn't, I want to know why the Sox parted with a hard worker like Loretta and downgraded to Dustin Pedroia, then spent millions of dollars on JD Drew who won't play 100 games this year, all the while giving up on young, powerful Wily Mo Pena, a move that Saj waxed poetic on earlier this week. The two moves are contradictory philosophies, though Red Sox Nation should be getting used to that.
Astros-related Ridiculous Proposition Bet: Let's make it non-ridiculous: Line on when Roger Clemens throws a pitch for the Astros - July 1.
Previous Preview
NL Central
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
NL West
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
Houston Astros
Pitching: You gotta love Roger Clemens. Wait, did I say love? Excuse me. You gotta dislike Roger Clemens. Understand that the Astros are the only team he'd sign with. He knew it last year and he knows it this year. Why make a team scramble, not knowing if you're going to be at or near the front of their rotation? It'd be so much easier on the Astros if they knew if he was playing or not. Brett Favre slows down the Green Bay Packers if they don't know if he'll be back under center the next year. Ricky Williams did the same thing when he retired right before training camp, leaving the Dolphins no time to effectively plug the bong shaped hole in their backfield. These athletes have become entirely too selfish in this decision making process. I'm all for them trying to get the most money possible, it is a business after all. However, in business, you should handle yourself as a professional and treat the franchise you might end up joining with respect.
Anyway, the Astros pitching is okay. They have a nice ace in Oswalt, but if Clemens doesn't come back, and with Pettitte gone back to the Bronx, they'll miss that veteran presence in their rotation. It severely weakens the strength on the back end of that rotation.
Bullpen: Like their starting pitching not knowing if they'll have Clemens, their bullpen is similarly pondering the state of Brad Lidge. Unlike Clemens, we know Lidge will lace up the cleats. Like Clemens, the Astros have NO idea what they will get out of Lidge, and this affects the rest of the bullpen. Is Wheeler closing with an inadequate set up man in front of him? Or do Wheeler and Lidge go back to shortening the game to 7 innings for the Astros starters? Or maybe this is the year Lidge blows yet another save to Pujols and the Cards, resulting in Lidge heading over to jump off the old Astrodome.
Hitting: They made a nice addition with Carlos Lee, finally concentrating on some offense in an offseason. He will provide great protection from Berkman, who put up some monster numbers last year (45, 136, 95). I'm eager to see if Morgan Ensberg can bounce back to his 2005 form, where he hit 36 dongs and broke the 100 RBI mark. If he returns to form and you throw him in there with Berkman and Lee in a hitters' ballpark, Houston might make a run at 90 wins even without Clemens.
Miscellaneous: I want Mark Lorette to play. And if he doesn't, I want to know why the Sox parted with a hard worker like Loretta and downgraded to Dustin Pedroia, then spent millions of dollars on JD Drew who won't play 100 games this year, all the while giving up on young, powerful Wily Mo Pena, a move that Saj waxed poetic on earlier this week. The two moves are contradictory philosophies, though Red Sox Nation should be getting used to that.
Astros-related Ridiculous Proposition Bet: Let's make it non-ridiculous: Line on when Roger Clemens throws a pitch for the Astros - July 1.
Previous Preview
NL Central
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
NL West
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
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