Football Friday: Week 7

Editors' note: Every week, these two idiots will play a Pick 'Em NFL game. The object is for each editor to pick four seemingly even NFL matchups from the upcoming weekend, challenging the other pick to the winners. A running record will be tallied. Feel free to play along at home. Leave comments with your own picks if you want to go on the record. Standings (Last week in parenthesis)

Ian 13-7 (2-2)
Saj 10-10 (1-3)

1:30 PM
S: Okay, I have a new strategy. Every week I will make my picks and then bet large sums of money that I am wrong. That should work, right? I mean we're not even dealing with handicaps here and I'm 10-10. Disgraceful. Here are your four games:

Carolina at Cincinnati (Sunday, 1:00)

Pittsburgh at Atlanta (Sunday, 1:00)

Green Bay at Miami (Sunday, 1:00)

NY Giants at Dallas (Monday, 8:30)

A bit of gamesmanship here, Ian: I gave you the Dallas game yet again just to piss you off; have fun picking Bledsoe and company against the surging Giants. I also made it impossible for you to give me the Miami game because I know I could not keep myself from picking Miami this week. One of these days they'll win a game and on that day I will be vindicated. Joe-Joe for life.

1:51 PM

I: If I ever find the time and motivation, I'm going to go through out blogs and find all my dead-on predictions. I don't mean picking a certain game, I mean things like: "Miami is the most overrated team heading into the season," and "watch out for multiple T.O. T.D's" against the Texans. Afterall, if we don't get picked up by a paying employer, the best part about this blog will be looking back on all broad predictions 6 months from now.

Anyway, good strategy on Miami. I usually look for games that will dupe you into making the wrong pick, much like you're now doing with Dallas. Chin up, though; a .500 record might win the NL West some day.

Here you go, buddy. When picking these, I realized there's never been more deviation of difficulty between the first four and next four games.

San Diego at Kansas City (Sunday, 1:00)

Detroit at New York Jets (Sunday, 1:00)

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (Sunday, 1:00)

Arizona at Oakland (Sunday, 4:15)

2:53 PM

Right you are on the deviation in difficulties. I can't go 4-0 this week (because I can't pick the Jets. Ever) but if I don't go 3-1 this week then I'll be just flabbergasted.

SAN DIEGO

In German, San Diego means "a whale's vagina." Have you ever tried running the ball in or around a whale's vagina? It's not easy. Not easy at all. And with Trent Green still out of commission the Chiefs have to rely on Damon Huard and/or Brodie Croyle to man the offense. That means lots of touches for Larry Johnson for not that many yards against a pretty darn good defense. And speaking of exuberance, does anyone else notice how incredibly jazzed up Philip Rivers' is after a good play? Jumping up and down and acting a fool? I love it.

DETROIT

You completely set me up with this one, thank you. I can't pick the Jets, I have to stand by my buddy Jon Kitna and you knew all of this. On the bright side the cable is finally on in my new place so I can be reminded of exactly how terrible it is to ALWAYS GET THE JETS GAMES IN NEW YORK CITY. Man I hate the Jets.

PHILLY

This is what you came up with? I mean come on. This can't be one of the top eight hardest games to pick this week. What about Minnesota at Seattle or Washington at Indy? Do the Eagles and Bucs even have to play? Donovan McNabb, if you're reading this, here's what you do. When you go out for the coin toss just say, "Listen, the guys are really tired from the New Orleans game last week, what if we just agreed upon a score and called it a day? You know something respectable we can both live with. 20-17? You guys can even have a couple of interceptions, maybe a fumble recovery, what do you say? I mean Lito already left for the day, and Coach Reid is taking a nap." It's a deal Tampa Bay would be crazy not to take.

ARIZONA

So this is the trendy pick for the Oakland Raiders first win. But I don't see it. I don't see it at all, not against the Cardinals, a team that was four flukey plays from beating the Chicago Bears. Granted they should have put the game away when they had the chance, but that doesn't mean they didn't have the ability to do it. The Oakland Raiders "end to futility" watch will have to wait until December 3rd when they host the Texans or December 31st when they visit the Jets in the Meadowlands. They'll still be futile, but maybe not without a win. Sidenote: The Oakland D-line vs. the Arizona O-line is the mini-battle of the week. We'll finally find out what happens when the blockable object meets the object that effectively doesn't exist. Something has got to give.

You're up.

5:29 PM

"We'll finally find out what happens when the blockable object meets the object that effectively doesn't exist. Something has got to give." Brilliant line, perhaps the best of our fledgling blog. And you're spot on about my Jets strategy. You use my foolish Cowboy love against me, so I reciprocate the gesture my capitalizing on your overwhelming hatred of the Jets. Still, don't forget who you're dealing with (cough, 13-7). I have correctly made all Cowboys picks, including the loss in Philly. Speaking of Philly, be careful, my young padawan. Your cockiness might be your downfall. Either that or your drinking problem.

Yikes, I'm at a yuge disadvantage this week. I'm hoping to break even this week before retaking momentum in Week 8. Without further ado...

Game 1: Carolina @ Cincinatti: Tough pick. The Panthers are hot with 4 wins in a row after opening with back to back losses. What's more, the second of those losses was that flukish lateral play, so you can almost look at it as five wins in a row coming into this. Cincinatti, on the other hand, is a strong team playing at home. It's really hard picking against that. But I will anyway. Why? Because despite the Bengals' talent, it's becoming clear that they're not that good against other good teams - especially physical good teams, like the Steelers, Patriots, and Panthers. Am I saying the Bengals are soft? No. But they're not exactly hard. [Insert typical Saj phallic joke here] Pick: Carolina

Game 2: Pittsburgh @ Atlanta: I just have no idea. That Giants win in Atlanta last week really shook me up. I have been hating on New York while loving Atlanta all year. The lesson, as Joe Morgan might point out if he were a football analyst, "when your quarterback throws a pick and fumbles four times, you have a worse chance to win the game than if he didn't do any of those things." On the other side, you have a Steelers team that thinks they have found their way, when all they've done is improve to 2-4 by hosting and beating a 2-3 Kansas City Chiefs team. Long story short, I'm not high on either one of these teams, which is more than I can say for Mike Vick, who seems like he's always playing high. Home team pulls it out. Pick: Atlanta

Game 3: Green Bay @ Miami: A real battle of the titans - thanks a lot. In fact, having the Titans instead of one of these teams might even improve the game, which is really saying something. This doesn't even deserve my time. My logic for picking this one is simple: If I gave you the game, you'd take Miami. But since you're wrong as often as you are right, that doesn't help me in itself. What does help me is that if you pick Miami, they lose. So I take the Pack. Pick: Green Bay

Game 4: New York Giants @ Dallas: T.O. is trying to take the Cowboys hostage. Team not names the Texans are begging balls to get throw to T.O. He's always covered! Why do you think Julius Jones is breaking 100 yards every week and Terry Glenn, in all her glory, is on pace for a Pro-Bowl appearance? It's because NFL defenses are concerned about the best receiver in the game. Marvin Harrison didn't get a TD catch until Week 6, but his team still is undefeated. Good receivers get attention and their numbers go down. It happened to Harrison, it happened to Moss, and it's happening to Johnson. But T.O. can't accept this. He has a gun to the Cowboys' head, ready to make the Cowboys season unravel faster than a Grady Little bullpen decision. Parcells and Bledsoe are hanging on for dear life. I just hope someone is getting through to Owens: Stay a decoy and we'll get into the playoffs. Demand the ball and we won't.

Where am I going with this? It's Monday Night Football. It's a national audience. T.O. will demand the ball. Pick: New York.

Baseball: NLCS and World Series

7:04 AM
I: I know it's your turn to give the picks first, but I just want to get some baseball out of the way.

That was a truly fantastic Game 7. Not only was it a good game, it was quite representative of a wacky postseason. Examples:

• There have been six series played thus far this post season. The underdog has won five of them. Only in the Mets-Dodgers series has the favorite come out on top. Tony LaRussa will surely share this with his club.
• The Tigers and the Cardinals were arguably the worst playoff team from their respective league, and inarguably playing the worst baseball of any playoff teams heading into the playoffs. I brought this up before the NLCS began, when the Tigers were rolling, as a hope for Cardinals fans.
• If you were to tell the Cardinals that, in the NLCS, Pujols would have one RBI and the Cardinals would lose both Chris Carpenter starts...they'd immediately turn their thoughts to the Rams.
• John Maine and Oliver Perez start Game 6 and 7 back to back in a Championship Series???
• If you were to tell the Mets that John Maine would pitch 5 scoreless in Game 6 and Oliver Perez would go 6 innings of one-run ball in Game 7, they'd say "book us tickets to Detroit."
• Oliver Perez will really dissapoint Mets fans next year...but he was magnificent until that Rolen at bat.
• Endy Chavez robbing the Rolen homerun was the best play I have seen in a long time. (I actually slapped my forehead while alone in my room and noticed my mouth agape.) If the Mets had won the game, it would go down as perhaps the greatest defensive play in baseball history; maybe second to Willie Mays at the Polo Grounds. The Chavez play, especially considering the double play, was probably the better play, but the Mays Catch was in the World Series.
• Jeff Suppan was the NLCS MVP. And deservedly so.

As for the World Series itself, my quick thoughts:

• I give the Cardinals a better shot to upset the Tigers than I did the Tigers to upset the Yankees. However, I feel that would be an irresponsible way to look at the series. The difference in the two matchups? The Tigers have pitching, the Yankees did not.
• The time off the Tigers have received is interesting. There couldn't be more disparity between the two World Series teams. The ALCS started first and it was a sweep; the NLCS started second and it went seven games. This could benefit either team, really...which is good for the Cards because they can use all the variables they can get. All I know is, Zumaya loved that week off.
• Playoff rotations if I were managing: St. Louis: Save Carpenter for Game 3 and Suppan for Game 4. St. Louis is on enough fumes as it is. Go Marquis in Game 1 and save Weaver on full rest for Game 2. If it goes 6 games, bring back Carpenter on 3 days rest and Suppan for Game 7 on 3 days. Detroit: Robertson, Rogers moved up to Game 2 (to start Games 2 and 6 at home) Bonderman (want him in Game 7), Verlander.
• Tigers in 5.

Notes on your comments and comments of my own:

The Cardinals did not lose both Chris Carpenter starts. Carpenter got the no decision in his first start (game 2) and the Cards won the game when they put up three runs on Billy Wagner.

I don't think the Cardinals let Jason Marquis pitch a marketing strategy let alone Game 1 of the World Series, but I agree with you on the Cardinal rotation. La Russa will probably throw Reyes for Game 1 and Weaver for Game 2, then the day off, and then Carpenter for Game 3 at home where he pitches phenomenally. The alternative would be both Weaver and Carpenter on short rest in Detroit and if they do that, well then, the terrorists have already won.

I'm not entirely sure how Jim Leyland will set his rotation after that short vacation they had and I'm not even going to pretend that I know which way is the best to set it. Any of their four starters could pitch Game 1 and I'm guessing Leyland will keep the rotation as is: Robertson, Verlander, Rogers, Bonderman. And speaking of interminable amounts of rest between starts, remember how well Verlander pitched on long rest in the Yankee series? It's been eleven days since he last pitched. Eleven days. In the past eleven days there have been 1.1 billion videos watched on youtube, I've shaved twice, and scientists began, and completed, construction on the world's first time machine. A lot has happened in the last eleven days, except Justin Verlander has not stepped foot on a pitching mound. Ditto Zumaya.

Yes, that Endy Chavez catch was ridiculous. I was in a bar somewhere in midtown Manhattan when it happened and the atmosphere (this may be semi-sacrilegious) was a decently watered down imitation of Boston in 2004. People were back-slapping and high-fiving and calling Joe Buck a douchebag. Just like in Boston. Until...

The Mets got Molina-ed. They got Molina-ed good. Yadier "I'm not as fat as my brothers" Molina hit a two-run game winning homer in the top of the ninth. To get to the bottom of the complete improbability of this ever happening I'm going to throw out some numbers: .274, 417, 6, 87, 5. Care to guess what these numbers represent? No? Okay, I'll tell you.

The first number is Yadier Molina's ON BASE PERCENTAGE. Yes, you read that correctly. ON BASE PERCENTAGE. His OBP was almost sixty points lower than Albert Pujols' batting average.

The second is the number of at bats he had this year, fairly standard for a catcher, and the third is the number of homeruns he hit. Six homeruns in 417 at bats. That's about one every seventy at bats. If you assume he gets an average of four at bats a game, that's a homerun for every seventeen regular season games. And this was the youngest Molina's second homerun of a postseason in which he was playing his eleventh game.

Finally, the fourth and fifth numbers relate to the svelte Mr. Aaron Heilman, the man who most directly got Molina-ed. Eighty seven is the number of innings Heilman pitched this season (with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP) and five is the number of homeruns he has surrendered. That's a homerun every 17 innings or so against, on average, hitters who are a good deal better than Yadier Molina. And he was pitching in Shea Stadium which was, despite the very competent Mets offense, the fifth worst park for the long ball this year. And the Mets were 7th in MLB in homeruns with 96 of their 200 homers being hit at home. Assuming the statistics for homeruns per game held from September 6th through the end of the season, visiting teams hit only 60 homeruns at Shea Stadium. What in the name of Aaron f****** Boone happened last night??

Finally, I have to mention that bottom of the ninth. Down two runs, bases loaded, two outs, and the Mets had their best hitter at the plate. If you wrote that scenario into a movie script it would get nixed for being too trite. I swear if Beltran had hit a homerun Oliver Stone would have began shooting a conspiracy theory film the very next day (Kevin Costner as Tony La Russa?) But Beltran struck out on three straight pitches against Adam Wainwright, a guy who had already given up two base hits and a walk to load the bases. I defer to my friend Jim, a diehard Mets fans:

"They had him (Wainwright) rattled. You could see his nerves were getting to him. He bore down, though.. he bore down and threw an amazing pitch when it mattered most. Beltran has to swing at it, no matter how good it is. The pitch before that, the one he fouled off, looked like a hanger.. it was inside, so location was good, but I felt that Beltran should've been able to put a better swing on that pitch. I felt like THAT was the pitch that turned the at bat... not the gem of a curve that followed. I mean, I don't see him putting wood on that pitch even if he swings.. but he has to swing. bottom line, he has to swing..."

And Jim is right. That pitch Wainwright threw was absolutely filthy. It was the second called third strike of the inning on a devastating curveball that was dead in the strike zone. But with the count at 0-2, Beltran had to swing at it. But I still love you, Carlos. I still love you.

Cardinals in six. Think red.

Sorry, my bad. I meant Carpenter didn't get any wins.

Baseball: NLCS

9:00 AM
I: This NLCS is turning out to be pretty good...even if the winner is fodder for the juggernaut known as the Detroit Tigers (who can believe I'm even saying that?). Zumaya's sore wrist even gets a week of recooperation time. Still, with the Tigers having so much mojo, maybe the week off can get them rusty giving the National League champions a shot.

I'd like to see how much chance you give either NL team to win the World Series. Rank the following in order of probability, and once I see how you like the NL team's chances, we'll circle back to talking NLCS:

The National League team beats the Detroit Tigers in the World Series.
The Chicago Bears win at least 15 games in the regular season.
The New England Patriots get the top seed in the AFC.
Roger Federer and Tiger Woods combine to win six majors next year.



Sorry for the delay in posting. Some of us have "jobs" and"responsibilities" and "lives." To rank the above four scenarios from likeliest to unlikeliest:

Roger Federer and Tiger Woods combine to win six majors next year.

Easily the most likely; these guys are unfathomably good. The only way this does not happen is if they combine to win MORE than six majors. Or if Tiger picks up tennis and Roger picks up golf. Then they'll tie each other for first place in all eight so that's sixteen titles between the two of them. There must be some kind of bonus is their respective Nike contracts for this.

The National League team beats the Detroit Tigers in the World Series.

I don't see why the Mets or Cardinals can't beat the Detroit Tigers. Sure there's all that baseball talk about pitching and hitting and defense, and blah blah blah, but in the end it's only a best of seven series. A small sample size. It could happen. Let's say the Mets win the NLCS. Glavine would probably be ready to start Game 1 and he's exactly the type of pitcher (a good one) that can be effective against the Tigers lineup of free swingers. The 85-year-old El Duque said he'd be okay to pitch if the Mets make the Series and NOBODY throws a 56 mph curveball like El Duque. And what about Darren "Willie Randolph Jr." Oliver throwing those six shut out innings on Saturday night? Freaky things happen in baseball games. And the same can be said for the Cardinals if they win the NLCS but I won't get into it because I don't want to. Forget all this talk about rust and rest and my man-crush on Carlos Beltran. The Mets are going to win the World Series.

The New England Patriots get the top seed in the AFC

I'm not sure how likely this really is, but looking at the schedule for the rest of the season for the Patriots, Colts, Broncos and Chargers it could happen. The Patriots play only three tough opponents for the rest of the season: Indy, Chicago, and Jacksonville, and they have the Colts and Bears at home. A 12-4 record is not only probable, it's the baseline here. The Colts play Washington, Denver, New England, Dallas, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Cincinnati. The Broncos play Indy, Pittsburgh, San Diego (x2), Seattle, Kansas City, and Cincinnati. And the Chargers play Kansas City (x2), St. Louis, Cincinnati, Denver (x2), and Seattle. Tough games all around, and the Broncos and Chargers already have a loss each. So this crazy Pats getting the top seed scenario is slightly more likely than...

The Chicago Bears win at least 15 games in the regular season.

Too much variation in football. If it weren't for three touchdowns scored by the defense and special teams and a missed 41 yard field goal by a guy who was so automatic last year you could schedule your bowel movements by him the Bears would have their first loss at this very moment. Not only did Rex Grossman break the record for most Grossman-related turnovers in a game (set in 1963 by the great Adelai "One arm" Grossman) he broke the record against the CARDINALS DEFENSE. What in Sally Struthers is that all about? At least Adelai Grossman had the excuse of having only one arm. I guess all those sportswriters who keep saying that Rex Grossman has finally grown up are right. He has finally grown up. Into Kurt Warner.