Remember when the Celtics traded for and reacquired Antoine Walker in the middle of the 2003-2004 season? At the time, the Celtics were slumping and might not have made the playoffs. But they made the trade, added instant offense, started winning the majority of their games, and made the playoffs. Good trade, right?
Well, the C's lost in the first round of the playoffs to a mediocre Indiana Pacers team (I attended Game 7, which they lost by 27 points). They ended up with the 15th pick in the draft, usually a spot where you will not find an impact player. Surprisingly, Al Jefferson fell to them. I remember watching the draft with my buddy Greg and we were praying that he would last that long but severely doubted it. Yet there he was.
However, most times, a stud player like Al Jefferson does not fall that low. That means teams that make first-round exits rarely have a chance to improve themselves. As stated in yesterday's Seattle Supersonics post, a team needs to know when to sacrifice the short term for the long term. Danny Ainge's Walker trade (the second one) set back the franchise 2-3 years.
The obvious question is: Has Danny Ainge repeated his mistake? I've got my thoughts on it Saj, but I'm dying to hear yours.
None of this is as bad as the Sebastian Telfair trade last year. Chew on that for a moment.
Anyway, I like Ray Allen and I wasn't crazy about any of the guys we could have gotten at five so the deal isn't terrible. Not exactly Hollinger-esque basketball analysis, but whatever. Ray Allen was awesome at Connecticut, he was awesome in "He Got Game" (sorta), and I'm pretty sure that both he and Kenny Lofton appeared on the same episode of The Wayans Brothers. What this trade does is put the Celtics in the playoffs. They're still not contenders, but, realistically, Oden or Durant were the only two players that would have cemented the foundation of this team. For all the Garnett and Marion trade rumors they weren't the players who would get us out of the East.
Oh, basketball.
The Ray Allen deal is exciting from a Celtics perspective and here's why: They'll probably win the Atlantic Division. This means a shot at the #3 seed (or #4, with the new playoff seeding rules) and guaranteed homecourt advantage in the first round. In other words, this means the inside track to the conference semi-finals and being one of the last eight teams still playing. Essentially, this trade makes them better than a one-and-done playoff team.
Boston immediately becomes, without a doubt, the best offensive Celtics team since #33 roamed the court. This is as strong of a 1-4 as you can hope for in this league, and probably the best 1-4 in the Eastern Conference (which is kind of like being the sanest person at the asylum). Rajon Rondo runs a terrific point guard and plays fantastic on the ball defense on the opposing point guard (Think a young Jason Kidd...now if he could only learn how to shoot like J. Kidd never did). Ray Allen at the two must always be guarded, which frees up room for two things. First, Paul Pierce at the three has more room to penetrate and either score or dish. Second, Al Jefferson at the four, who will command double teams all season, can only be double teamed at the expense of leaving open Allen or Pierce.
The diversity of scoring options for the Celtics means that Rondo and the center position don't even have to be scoring threats. If they can make lay ups, that's good enough.
Okay, enough offense talk, because we already know this team can average 105 points a night. The problem with this trade is that they could very well give up 106. (Think 2006-2007 Wizards.) The three great scorers I just mentioned are not good defenders...especially Ray Allen. Trading Delonte West and the potentially defensive minded #5 pick meant the only defense left on the Celtics roster was a point guard who can't shoot (Rondo), a shooting guard coming off major knee surgery (Tony Allen), and a decrepit shot-blocking center whose most attractive quality is that he's in the last year of his contract (Theo Ratliff).
This concerns me. Every good team has a good perimeter defender. Bowen, Prince, Bell, Howard. You need someone to slow down the other team's best player. For the Celtics, it's Tony Allen, but the two highest paid players on the team play his position. Not only is he coming back from surgery, but there's not enough perimeter minutes to go around. I think you'll see the Celtics go small a LOT this upcoming year, with Pierce (a good rebounder) seeing time at power forward and Jefferson sliding to center. And this just makes the interior defense that much worse.
Fortunately, their awesome offensive fire power is good enough to win the Atlantic. However, without defensive talent or defensive depth (And I didn't even touch their questionable coach), they have no shot to compete for an NBA Championship, nor did this trade put them in any position to do so down the road.
Saj, would you like to see the Celts make one more deal this offseason or go forward with this squad?
Friday, July 06, 2007
Thursday, July 05, 2007
NBA: Sonics and other
Ian, tell me your thoughts on the Seattle Supersonics and Supersonic-related developments. They grab two blue chippers in the draft (Kevin Durant and Jeff Green) while getting rid of their two best players from the 2006-2007 team (Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis), dramatically altering their roster. Meanwhile Allen is sent to Boston and Lewis signs a max contract (!) with the Magic.
Also, Greg Oden's blog: is he too nice? I mean, this guy seems awesome. Like I'd want to hang out with him and play video games. Maybe I'll move to Portland and ask him if he has any need for someone with my specific skill set in his entourage. And by skill set I mean my sick AND1 basketball moves and bikini inspecting ability. What say you?
P.S. Just for fun, Baron Davis emasculating Andrei Kirilenko.
Seattle did it the right way. I think Seattle did what countless franchises in sports should do but, due to incompetence or lack of opportunity, don't: Blow up the team and go with a youth movement. How often do we hear that a team and/or its fanbase is sick of being an also-ran, but each year they think they can make the playoffs so they don't do anything drastic to make a long-term solution. They don't want to kill three season to be a contender in the fourth. Then the long term arrives and they're still mired in mediocrity, wishing they did it the right way five years ago. The kicker is that they readily repeat those same mistakes again.
Well, Seattle was given an opportunity with the second pick in the draft. They blew up their team. They used the second pick to get an offensive dynamo. They traded their best player to get the fifth pick and a legitimate second banana for the dynamo. They let their second best player go (Max contract? Good riddance!) to keep cap space to do any necessary signings when the complimentary pieces are necessary. It's a great job by the Sonic front office.
Now this is Kevin Durant's team from day one. Make no mistake about it. And Jeff Green? He's their #2 from day one. There will be no Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis demanding shots and money and stunting the growth of the future of the franchise.
So how will Seattle do in 2007-2008? Probably not make the playoffs. Then they add another lottery pick. And the following season? A first-round exit at best. But in five years? You're looking perennial contenders.
Seattle did it the right way.
With Greg Oden, we have a gregarious big man cut from the mold of David Robinson and Shaquille O'Neal. He's very likeable, and I full expect him to be the second face of the league, after LeBron James. It's guys like Greg Oden that make me think the NBA is going to be all right. Think about it. Five years from now, we could very well see Oden, Durant, James, Carmelo Anthony, and Dwayne Wade consistently get beyond the second round of the playoffs. They'll become household names like Magic, Larry, and MJ. Getting the casual fan excited about a league? That's the ticket to success.
I'll save the Celtics for tomorrow. It deserves its own thread.
Also, Greg Oden's blog: is he too nice? I mean, this guy seems awesome. Like I'd want to hang out with him and play video games. Maybe I'll move to Portland and ask him if he has any need for someone with my specific skill set in his entourage. And by skill set I mean my sick AND1 basketball moves and bikini inspecting ability. What say you?
P.S. Just for fun, Baron Davis emasculating Andrei Kirilenko.
Seattle did it the right way. I think Seattle did what countless franchises in sports should do but, due to incompetence or lack of opportunity, don't: Blow up the team and go with a youth movement. How often do we hear that a team and/or its fanbase is sick of being an also-ran, but each year they think they can make the playoffs so they don't do anything drastic to make a long-term solution. They don't want to kill three season to be a contender in the fourth. Then the long term arrives and they're still mired in mediocrity, wishing they did it the right way five years ago. The kicker is that they readily repeat those same mistakes again.
Well, Seattle was given an opportunity with the second pick in the draft. They blew up their team. They used the second pick to get an offensive dynamo. They traded their best player to get the fifth pick and a legitimate second banana for the dynamo. They let their second best player go (Max contract? Good riddance!) to keep cap space to do any necessary signings when the complimentary pieces are necessary. It's a great job by the Sonic front office.
Now this is Kevin Durant's team from day one. Make no mistake about it. And Jeff Green? He's their #2 from day one. There will be no Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis demanding shots and money and stunting the growth of the future of the franchise.
So how will Seattle do in 2007-2008? Probably not make the playoffs. Then they add another lottery pick. And the following season? A first-round exit at best. But in five years? You're looking perennial contenders.
Seattle did it the right way.
With Greg Oden, we have a gregarious big man cut from the mold of David Robinson and Shaquille O'Neal. He's very likeable, and I full expect him to be the second face of the league, after LeBron James. It's guys like Greg Oden that make me think the NBA is going to be all right. Think about it. Five years from now, we could very well see Oden, Durant, James, Carmelo Anthony, and Dwayne Wade consistently get beyond the second round of the playoffs. They'll become household names like Magic, Larry, and MJ. Getting the casual fan excited about a league? That's the ticket to success.
I'll save the Celtics for tomorrow. It deserves its own thread.
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
Reader email - July 3
Reader Keith from Connecticut asks:
You guys don't think Dan Haren should be starting for the A.L.? Before Sunday, 1.91 ERA in the ever so powerful American League.
Great point, Keith. I like Danny Haren, and for more reasons than simply his resemblence to me. His record (10-2) is comparable to Beckett's (11-2), and his ERA is just over a run lower. All that being said, I feel it's been Beckett's start to lose ever since he was 9-0 and 11-1. Those are simply eye-popping records. Haren was 0-2 and has played catch up ever since. Ten straights wins is great for any resume, but Beckett was in the driver's seat and hasn't done anything to lose the honor. And let's not forget Haren's 1.58 ERA has fallen to 2.20 in the last four starts. His lights out streak is definitely over.
And honestly, I don't believe everything I'm saying right now, but there is one more point to be made. The 2003 World Series MVP is the bigger name and this is the All-Star Game. I expect Beckett to get the nod. I also don't think it's out of the question that those two gentlemen's start this week may determine who's on the mound in the first inning. One of them gets shelled and one of them pitches well... that could decide it.
You know what's funny about this debate? There's a real possibility Leyland will choose his own player - Justin "no-no" Verlander.
What do you think, Saj?
Excellent question, Keith, excellent question. Ignoring my fanboy-ism (which is the only reason I chose Beckett anyway) and Ian's crafty exercise in rationalization there is no reason why Dan Haren should not start the All-Star Game. Bay area starter, having a fantastic season, Ian thinks he looks like him. No reason, except for C.C. Sabathia. While Haren leads the AL in ERA, ERA+, WHIP, and OPS against, Sabathia holds the edge in wins, innings pitched, K's, K/BB, and donuts consumed in a single sitting. I'm not saying that makes him more deserving, but 116 strike outs and only 17 walks is pretty ridiculous. As is the two dozen Krispy Kremes he demolished in twelve minutes.
Of course this is all subject to the caprice of Jim Leyland. He could go with his boy (Verlander), his old boy (Beckett), or the best pitcher on the planet (Johan Santana) in lieu of either Haren or Sabathia. I think Leyland goes with Haren. And I think Haren ends the season with an ERA above 3.50. And I think Santana drops his ERA another half run and wins the Cy Young Award. And I think I'll have ice cream for lunch today. Those are my thoughts.
Thanks for the emails, readers.
You guys don't think Dan Haren should be starting for the A.L.? Before Sunday, 1.91 ERA in the ever so powerful American League.
Great point, Keith. I like Danny Haren, and for more reasons than simply his resemblence to me. His record (10-2) is comparable to Beckett's (11-2), and his ERA is just over a run lower. All that being said, I feel it's been Beckett's start to lose ever since he was 9-0 and 11-1. Those are simply eye-popping records. Haren was 0-2 and has played catch up ever since. Ten straights wins is great for any resume, but Beckett was in the driver's seat and hasn't done anything to lose the honor. And let's not forget Haren's 1.58 ERA has fallen to 2.20 in the last four starts. His lights out streak is definitely over.
And honestly, I don't believe everything I'm saying right now, but there is one more point to be made. The 2003 World Series MVP is the bigger name and this is the All-Star Game. I expect Beckett to get the nod. I also don't think it's out of the question that those two gentlemen's start this week may determine who's on the mound in the first inning. One of them gets shelled and one of them pitches well... that could decide it.
You know what's funny about this debate? There's a real possibility Leyland will choose his own player - Justin "no-no" Verlander.
What do you think, Saj?
Excellent question, Keith, excellent question. Ignoring my fanboy-ism (which is the only reason I chose Beckett anyway) and Ian's crafty exercise in rationalization there is no reason why Dan Haren should not start the All-Star Game. Bay area starter, having a fantastic season, Ian thinks he looks like him. No reason, except for C.C. Sabathia. While Haren leads the AL in ERA, ERA+, WHIP, and OPS against, Sabathia holds the edge in wins, innings pitched, K's, K/BB, and donuts consumed in a single sitting. I'm not saying that makes him more deserving, but 116 strike outs and only 17 walks is pretty ridiculous. As is the two dozen Krispy Kremes he demolished in twelve minutes.
Of course this is all subject to the caprice of Jim Leyland. He could go with his boy (Verlander), his old boy (Beckett), or the best pitcher on the planet (Johan Santana) in lieu of either Haren or Sabathia. I think Leyland goes with Haren. And I think Haren ends the season with an ERA above 3.50. And I think Santana drops his ERA another half run and wins the Cy Young Award. And I think I'll have ice cream for lunch today. Those are my thoughts.
Thanks for the emails, readers.
Monday, July 02, 2007
All Star Ruminations
Well, Saj and I decided to take the month of June off to recharge the old batteries. Saj will probably try to convince you that he left me in the States to go oil up Swedish supermodels, but that would be a lie. They were Norwegian and I was there, too.
We return now on the first Monday of July with a promise. Throughout the summer, we will have two posts a week for you. Please check back regularly. It'll be mostly baseball for a while, with tennis, golf, and offseason NBA and NFL mixed in. Around September, things will heat up with the NFL kicking off and baseball getting into its stretch run, with our beloved BoSox making a run at another World Series.
Later this week, Saj and I will give our thoughts on recent NBA developments around the league. Today, however, we will concentrate on yesterday's announced MLB All-Star rosters.
I'll start with what I think was the biggest snub of the year, an interesting choice for me as many are saying Kevin Youkilis, my favorite player in the league, was the biggest AL snub. However, easily the biggest snub of the year is one of my least favorite players in the league: Gary Sheffield.
Check it: Gary Sheffield is 2nd in in the American League in runs, 3rd in homeruns, 10th in RBI but has more stolen bases than anyone with more RBI than him, he's 4th in walks, and 7th in OPS. Most importantly, he's carried my fantasy team while the likes of David Wright, Carlos Beltran, and Miguel Tejada were underperforming. That, Saj, is an All-Star. What do you think? Who's the biggest snub?
I will agree that Gary Sheffield is having a very good season, his LL Cool J/pedophile moustache notwithstanding. But while deserving, it's hard to find a place for him. For one, the AL already holds five reserve outfielders on it's roster. Crawford and Rios are picks of necessity (baseball's inane "every team" rule) and Hunter and Sizemore legitimately deserve their selections. The only spot I could see being vacated for the good Mr. Sheffield would be Ramirez's. And, yes, Sheffield is having a better season that Manny, but the All-Star Game is as much a popularity contest as it is a celebration of performance. And Manny, I'm willing to wager, is somewhere near infinitely more popular than Gary Sheffield. Why? Because Sheffield is the kind of guy who would steal walkers from old people and punch them in the face.
I'd say the biggest collective snub of this year's All Star rosters belongs to the alienated trio of the NL shortstop quintet that is taking the league by storm this season. While Jose Reyes and J.J. Hardy are definitely deserving, Hanley Ramirez (on pace for 20 HR, 50 SB and 130 R), Edgar Renteria (hitting .324, OPS .879), and Jimmy Rollins (on pace for 30 HR, 30 SB, 100 RBI, 130 R!) are having great seasons as well. In fact, I would like to see Orlando Hudson removed from the roster in favor of one of these guys. No offense, Orlando.
Not a bad observation. The talented NL shortstops brings me back to the turn of the millenium when the American League had four dynamo short stops (Arod, Nomar, Jeets, Tejada) battling for the crown of best shortstop in the game. Now two of them play other positions and one was probably on roids. Still, even though Jeter seemingly survived the battle, Arod is still the best shortstop ever... he just plays third base.
Let's project some lineups, shall we? Here's what I got for the American League:
1. Ichiro Suzuki CF
2. Derek Jeter SS
3. Alex Rodriguez 3B
4. David Ortiz 1B
5. Vlad Guerrero RF
6. Magglio Ordonez LF
7. Ivan Rodriguez C
8. Placido Polanco 2B
9. Josh Beckett P
Saj?
I agree for the most part. The only thing I'd add is that maybe Leyland throws his guy Magglio a bone at 3 and moves the others down. And flip flop Polanco and Pudge. Also, I like Beckett starting.
National League:
1. Jose Reyes SS
2. Chase Utley 2B
3. Carlos Beltran CF
4. Barry Bonds LF
5. Ken Griffey Jr. RF
6. Prince Fielder 1B
7. David Wright 3B
8. Russell Martin C
9. Jake Peavy P
I barely agree with this, but I think La Russa likes Beltran at three. And as per convention Griffey gets the nod at 5 over young guy Fielder, the catcher hits before the pitcher, and there's a bigheaded asshole in the clean up spot.
Bonds in his home park is up in the first inning, so he hits 3rd, thus defying the general rule of the big-head hitting fourth (see Ortiz). So I swap your three and four, and the rest are the same.
1. Reyes SS
2. Utley 2B
3. Bonds LF
4. Beltran CF
5. Griffey RF
6. Fielder 1B
7. Wright 3B
8. Martin C
9. Peavy P
It appears our lineups are quite similar. At least that makes it easy to see who's more right, which is usually me. We'll keep an eye on the 3-4 in the NL and where Magglio hits in the AL.
NBA Draft fallout later in the week.
Conceding your Bonds point. It makes too much sense. But in that case I see Griffey hitting clean up.
We return now on the first Monday of July with a promise. Throughout the summer, we will have two posts a week for you. Please check back regularly. It'll be mostly baseball for a while, with tennis, golf, and offseason NBA and NFL mixed in. Around September, things will heat up with the NFL kicking off and baseball getting into its stretch run, with our beloved BoSox making a run at another World Series.
Later this week, Saj and I will give our thoughts on recent NBA developments around the league. Today, however, we will concentrate on yesterday's announced MLB All-Star rosters.
I'll start with what I think was the biggest snub of the year, an interesting choice for me as many are saying Kevin Youkilis, my favorite player in the league, was the biggest AL snub. However, easily the biggest snub of the year is one of my least favorite players in the league: Gary Sheffield.
Check it: Gary Sheffield is 2nd in in the American League in runs, 3rd in homeruns, 10th in RBI but has more stolen bases than anyone with more RBI than him, he's 4th in walks, and 7th in OPS. Most importantly, he's carried my fantasy team while the likes of David Wright, Carlos Beltran, and Miguel Tejada were underperforming. That, Saj, is an All-Star. What do you think? Who's the biggest snub?
I will agree that Gary Sheffield is having a very good season, his LL Cool J/pedophile moustache notwithstanding. But while deserving, it's hard to find a place for him. For one, the AL already holds five reserve outfielders on it's roster. Crawford and Rios are picks of necessity (baseball's inane "every team" rule) and Hunter and Sizemore legitimately deserve their selections. The only spot I could see being vacated for the good Mr. Sheffield would be Ramirez's. And, yes, Sheffield is having a better season that Manny, but the All-Star Game is as much a popularity contest as it is a celebration of performance. And Manny, I'm willing to wager, is somewhere near infinitely more popular than Gary Sheffield. Why? Because Sheffield is the kind of guy who would steal walkers from old people and punch them in the face.
I'd say the biggest collective snub of this year's All Star rosters belongs to the alienated trio of the NL shortstop quintet that is taking the league by storm this season. While Jose Reyes and J.J. Hardy are definitely deserving, Hanley Ramirez (on pace for 20 HR, 50 SB and 130 R), Edgar Renteria (hitting .324, OPS .879), and Jimmy Rollins (on pace for 30 HR, 30 SB, 100 RBI, 130 R!) are having great seasons as well. In fact, I would like to see Orlando Hudson removed from the roster in favor of one of these guys. No offense, Orlando.
Not a bad observation. The talented NL shortstops brings me back to the turn of the millenium when the American League had four dynamo short stops (Arod, Nomar, Jeets, Tejada) battling for the crown of best shortstop in the game. Now two of them play other positions and one was probably on roids. Still, even though Jeter seemingly survived the battle, Arod is still the best shortstop ever... he just plays third base.
Let's project some lineups, shall we? Here's what I got for the American League:
1. Ichiro Suzuki CF
2. Derek Jeter SS
3. Alex Rodriguez 3B
4. David Ortiz 1B
5. Vlad Guerrero RF
6. Magglio Ordonez LF
7. Ivan Rodriguez C
8. Placido Polanco 2B
9. Josh Beckett P
Saj?
I agree for the most part. The only thing I'd add is that maybe Leyland throws his guy Magglio a bone at 3 and moves the others down. And flip flop Polanco and Pudge. Also, I like Beckett starting.
National League:
1. Jose Reyes SS
2. Chase Utley 2B
3. Carlos Beltran CF
4. Barry Bonds LF
5. Ken Griffey Jr. RF
6. Prince Fielder 1B
7. David Wright 3B
8. Russell Martin C
9. Jake Peavy P
I barely agree with this, but I think La Russa likes Beltran at three. And as per convention Griffey gets the nod at 5 over young guy Fielder, the catcher hits before the pitcher, and there's a bigheaded asshole in the clean up spot.
Bonds in his home park is up in the first inning, so he hits 3rd, thus defying the general rule of the big-head hitting fourth (see Ortiz). So I swap your three and four, and the rest are the same.
1. Reyes SS
2. Utley 2B
3. Bonds LF
4. Beltran CF
5. Griffey RF
6. Fielder 1B
7. Wright 3B
8. Martin C
9. Peavy P
It appears our lineups are quite similar. At least that makes it easy to see who's more right, which is usually me. We'll keep an eye on the 3-4 in the NL and where Magglio hits in the AL.
NBA Draft fallout later in the week.
Conceding your Bonds point. It makes too much sense. But in that case I see Griffey hitting clean up.
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