Football Friday: Week 6

Editors' note: Every week, these two idiots will play a Pick 'Em NFL game. The object is for each editor to pick four seemingly even NFL matchups from the upcoming weekend, challenging the other pick to the winners. A running record will be tallied. Feel free to play along at home. Leave comments with your own picks if you want to go on the record.

Standings (Last week in parenthesis)

Ian 11-5 (3-1)

Saj 9-7 (3-1)

6:50 AM

I: Look at our records. If this were the NFL,I'd be coasting to a 2 seed and first round bye. You'd be scoreboard watching hoping to get in on some cheap tie-breaker. Man, you're cheap. See if you can make headway with these (I'm definitely trying to bait you with one of these):

Buffalo at Detroit (Sunday 1:00pm)

Philadelphia at New Orleans (Sunday 1:00pm)

Miami at NY Jets (Sunday 4:15pm)

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (Sunday 4:15pm)

11:08am

Talk big while you can, Ian. It's only two games. Speaking of only two games, there are only 13 games on the NFL schedule this week. Six teams have byes. Six teams! I'm not sure why this is alarming to me but it is. Anyway, here are your games conejo:

Carolina at Baltimore (Sunday 1:00pm)

NY Giants at Atlanta (Sunday 1:00pm)

Seattle at St. Louis (Sunday 1:00pm)

Houston at Dallas (Sunday 1:00pm)

Have fun with that last one.

1:27 PM

Two gimmies and two tough ones, therefore the best you can do in the overall standings this week is tie me. Thanks for a stressless Sunday.

Game 1: Carolina @ Baltimore: One of the tough ones. I think Baltimore may have peaked at 4-0, but they're still a good team. The problem is, Jamal Lewis isn't as good as I thought he was. Combine that with average or below average players at every other offensive position (sans the above average Todd Heap) and the Ravens won't be making too much noice down the stretch. They can beat Cleveland twice and maybe even Pittsburgh twice to finish at 10 wins, but this is not a good team - just a good defense. I see Carolina having a very difficult time putting points on the board in Baltimore. If someone were to offer them a total of 13 points for the game, take it or leave it, they'd take it. McNair, like in Weeks 3 and 4, does juuuust enough to win. Pick: Baltimore

Game 2: NY Giants @ Atlanta: One of the gimmies. Atlanta has shown to be the better team in ever facet of the game with the possible exception of quarterback. (And I mean possible, but come on, Vick can't hit receivers.) Add in home field advantage and it's a lock. Pick: Atlanta

Game 3: Seattle @ St. Louis: One of the toughies. Seriously. I don't know who's going to win this game. If we had a spread, I'd take the dog Rams because they get three points. Straight up though, this is really tough. If Shawn Alexander were playing, I'd give it to the Seahawks, but with Morris in their running game, I'm not confident. On the Rams side, there are legit weapons all over the offensive side of the ball, and the Seahawks will look to keep pace with a growing score. Look for Seattle to use a lot of 4 Wide Receiver sets and make it a track meet on the St. Louis turf. Shootout here, and the team with the better coach, quarterback, and receivers win. Pick: Seattle

Game 4: Houston @ Dallas: Please. If it weren't for Oakland traveling to Denver, this would be the lock of the week. This is only Dallas' second home game, and I like them putting up close to 40 points here. Look for a couple T.O. T.D.'s. Pick: Dallas

2:49pm

The Giants game is not a gimmie, but I'm glad you think so you overconfident ass. On to the picks...

DETROIT

I am not making this pick because Jon Kitna is the starting QB for both of my fantasy teams. Again, that is NOT why I am making this pick. Okay, this is why I am making this pick. Admitting that Jon Kitna cannot beat the Buffalo Bills at home is the same as admitting that my fantasy teams are terrible. And that is something, however true, that I refuse to admit. One of my teams also has Kevin Jones. Shoot me.

PHILADELPHIA

Who doesn't love Reggie Bush? Nobody. Nobody doesn't love Reggie Bush. He is really effing good. It's too bad the Eagles are better.

MIAMI

This is a stupid pick. A very stupid pick. But Miami has to finally win a game within their division (right?) and there's no better time than Joe-Joe's second start as a Dolphin. Well there could be a better time. Like when they Green Bay. Or when they play Detroit. But I can't pick the Jets. Ever. I don't care if the Tuna Bowl rivalry has been dead for nigh six seasons, any time I can see the Jets and Jets fans suffer, I take it. So this pick would be doubly satisfying. J-E-T-S!! S-U-C-K!!

KANSAS CITY

This was a tough pick and a great example of why someone who knows absolutely nothing about football (i.e. my friend Lindsey) probably picks this game correctly more often than someone who thinks they know something about football (i.e. me). So I let her do it for me. I was probably going to overthink it and end up picking the Steelers after predicting that this is the game where Ben Roethlisberger finally adds 2+2 and gets 4. But I would be wrong. P.S. as a backup, I flipped a coin. It landed tails: Kansas City. Just too many random determinants coincide here for me to pick against them.\

Good luck, and go Texans.

Baseball: More playoffs

6:58 AM
I: First, let's eradicate the elephant in the room. The Cory Lidle tragedy is obviously a sad story, but it really could have been worse, so let's be glad it wasn't. At the end of the day, when the uniforms come off, all baseball players are workers in society. They're just more famous for what they do. Anyway, too bad. Sad story for baseball yesterday.

Back to on-the-field: The Oakland A's have no homefield advantage in terms of fan support. Empty seats in a Championship Series? That's unacceptable, especially since they haven't been there since 1990. Detroit will be rocking for Games 3-5, and that is why I want them to win the whole thing at this point. And to think, three years ago they were chasing the worst record ever. Good story.

As far as the X's and O's of the ALCS, this has to go the Tigers way. Thought Zito is arguably the best starting pitcher of the series, he has already lost and the Tigers' starting pitching seems to be throwing a better ball right now. Add in the Rodney-Zumaya-Jones option at the end of a game(And no, I cannot believe I just laid praise on Fernando Rodney and Todd Jones), and this team is tough to score runs on. Their lineup is the second best lineup still going in baseball, if for no other reason than they have the knack of getting those huge hits.

Thoughts on the ALCS?


12:15pm
Way to pick the Tigers after they're already up 2-0. Risk taker. Normally people make these picks before the series starts but since we don't have that luxury I am going to retroactively predict that the Athletics will win this series in five games on the strength of their starting pitching. Of course now that proves impossible and I look like an idiot.

Speaking of starting pitching, what happened to the Athletics? You say that Barry Zito is arguably the best pitcher of the series, and considering the job he did on Tuesday that is definitely arguable. Listen here Mets, Yankees, Angels, and other teams looking to throw millions of dollars at a starting pitcher this offseason: Barry Zito is not that good (despite what Scott Boras may tell you). His numbers this season were strikingly similar to his 2004 campaign where he went 11-11 and had a 4.48 ERA playing half his games in his cavernous home park. His WHIP and K/BB were actually worse and his OPS against and ground ball to fly ball ratio were identical. Sure he has pretty hair and a curveball good enough to bring Candy Cummings back from the dead, but he's not worth the 12 to 15 million a year he will get. In fact, very few pitchers are in a world where Josh Johnson can give you a 3.10 ERA and success on the mound can be as fleeting as a professional athlete's relationship with Alyssa Milano.

And what more can be said about Esteban Loaiza aside from the fact that he should have decked Milton Bradley instead of being a huge gaping mangina about it. Okay, so it really wasn't a big deal but I would have loved to see that fight. Maybe Loaiza would get absolutely owned by our angry young friend but he's got three inches and 25 lbs on Bradley. And who would play peacemaker in that fight? Adam Melhuse or Marco Scutaro?

Bottom line: The A's are down two games to none and the Tigers haven't even pitched their two best starting pitchers. As Scooby Doo would say, "Ruh Roh Raggy..."

NLCS?


1:39 PM
The NLCS is tough, as the Cardinals have the best starting pitcher in the series, but the Mets have the best everything else. Often times, however, it comes down to who has the best starting pitcher to clinch those two games. That leaves the team only needing to take two of the remaining five games, while the opponent has to win four of the remaining five. The trick is, of course, to get those two wins from the stud pitcher. Just ask the Twins.

So, I'm taking Mets. They can probably split the Carpenter starts, and their lineup can definitely outslug the Cardinals' lineup in three of the other five games. If, however, the Cardinals do win, it'll be because Carpenter has two wins and Pujols pulled a Carlos Beltran 2004. (I'm looking forward to see if Carlos Beltran 2006 can pull a Carlos Beltran 2004.)

These first two games definitely set the pace for the series. If the Mets can leave Shea up 2-0, it probably shows St. Louis is out of their league, and the series will be done in four or five games. If the Cardinals can salvage a game at Shea, this series is definitely coming back to New York for Game 6 and probably 7, as the Cardinals should take two at home once they prove they can take one on the road.

I refuse to believe that this is the year either the A's or Cardinals finally break through for a World Series victory after all of their great teams earlier in the decade. Both of them have had consistently better teams come up short in recent times.

I'm not only predicting, but I'm hoping for a Tigers-Mets World Series. Two great crowds, two historical teams...that series will have a lot of juice. What are your predictions and what are you hoping for?

3:45pm
In response to being asked for a prediction, Clubber Lang once said,"Prediction? PAIN." And I too predict pain for anyone watching the NLCS this year. It's going to be ugly, ugly stuff. Bad pitching from both teams involved in a series is just no fun to watch. No fun at all.

It's hard to not see a Tigers-Mets World Series. It was my wish to see the Athletics win the World Series but the odds of that happening are looking bleak after the 2-0 defecit they put themselves in.

I don't have much to say about the Cardinals except that Bruce Bochy is the reason they made it to the the NLCS this year. As long as Willie Randolph is smart enough to not pitch to Albert Pujols I think the Mets will be fine. And speaking of fine Mets, how about that Tom Glavine? Interesting and esoteric statistics are great fun!

Final note on the NLCS: Game 4 is fixin' (yes, fixin') to match up pitchers Darren Oliver and Anthony Reyes in quite possibly the worst postseason pitching matchup in history. I'm calling ELIAS to confirm this.


5:36 PM
That's a great observation about Game 4. While I agree that it's much more compelling to watch well pitched series, I would definitely say that the viewing audience prefers slugfests. I think 10-8, 8-7, 9-6, 11-9 games would be very entertaining for the general audience. And it's those types of games that the Cardinals need when Carpenter isn't pitching, so you have a team trying for those scores. I'd much rather watch a pitching duel, but America wouldn't. Remember, these are the same people who will watch American Idol and Dancing with the Stars over The West Wing and Arrested Development.

Back to baseball, did you notice that it was the Tigers and Cardinals who staggered across the finish line? They really collapsed near the end. Now, the Tigers are the hottest team on the planet. Moreover, the Cardinals just ousted the Padres who had to play well to take their division over the Dodgers. Does this mean anything? Might the Cardinals surprise us, showing their midseason form over their September form, just like the Tigers did? How about this: Which is more likely to happen: The Cardinals win their series OR the A's force a Game 6.

5:57pm
I think the public, more than anything, wants to watch a game that progresses quickly. You can have your 11-9 slugfest, but it better be done in less than three and a half hours. I don't think you can make the Tigers-Cardinals corollary here. Different teams in different situations. The Tigers played themselves out of winning the division, the Cardinals almost played themselves out of the playoffs entirely.

I'm going to say that it's more likely that the A's force a Game 6 than the Cardinals win the NLCS. If either will happen is a different question entirely.

NFL: Week 5 Recap

1:02 PM
I: Well, if it wasn't official before, it certainly is now. The Chicago Bears are the best team in the NFL. They are the team to beat. They are the team no one wants to play. At a distant second are the Indianapolis Colts, who while still undefeated, barely got past the woeful Tennessee Titans with a 14-13 victory. The Colts, as has been said numerous times in this blog by both writers, have some real problems stopping the run. That is a huge problem to have in the NFL. Hayuge. We can fill out the rest of our power rankings later.

Saj, I want you to take a look at the Bears remaining schedule and tell me why they won't win at least 14 games this year: @Arizona, Bye, SF, Mia, @NYG, @NYJ, @Pats, Min, @Stl, TB, @Det, GB.

It doesn't take an expert to say that the three straight rode games in the Northeast is a very tough stretch...but these are the Chicago Bears. Northeast weather will not phase them in the least. That means they beat the bad team (Jets), beat the decent team (Giants) in a tight game , and have trouble with the good team (Pats). The fact that all three are road games (fans and familiarity being the factor, not weather conditions) means the Bears might lose two of those, but have a great chance to go 2-1 if not 3-0. And where else on their schedule, Saj, is there a loseable game? Nowhere. Fourteen wins easy, am I right?


1:45pm
S: Looking at that schedule, I don't think anything is out of the question. It's tough to predict 14 wins, but I can say with confidence that the Bears are a mortal lock for at least 12. Arizona, Bye week, San Francisco, and Miami? That's like having a month off to prepare for the Giants on November 12. And who knows which Giants team shows up that day and whether or not Eli decides to play like Eli or play well enough to win. Up next are the Jets and we saw how they perform against a good defense this past week. Chad Pennington looked so bad, I thought he was autistic. The Patriots at Gillette at the end of that three game spell will be a tough play, but, and it pains me to say this, the Bears are good enough to embarass New England in that game.

14 wins is tough to say. That's going 9-2 for the rest of the season and, as we've learned, predicting anything this season is so infuriatingly difficult. It can happen, but the Bears will at least go 7-4 and win the division easily unless Sexy Rexy and half the starting defense contracts a debilitating case of gonorrhea from a stripper during Week 9 in Miami.

And speaking of debilitating and Miami, how about that Joey Harrington? Imagine leaving Detroit, not a great city to spend the winter (or any) months in, and it's 5-11 team for Miami, a city with not only more thongs per capita than any other in this great nation, but with an 8-8 football team on the rise where he'd be asked only to carry a clipboard. Exciting right? Would Joey even have to wait until after the game to pop some ecstasy and hit up South Beach? It turns out that he will have to wait (at least for South Beach) until after the game nowadays because, CONGRATULATIONS JOEY, you're the new starting quarterback of the 1-4 Miami Dolphins! I wonder if he's at all happy about this. Just listen carefully Joey: Throw Chris Chambers the ball. He's killing both my fantasy teams.

On a related note (completely unrelated but you KNOW I had to mention this) how about that completely uncharacteristic, out of the blue, Bledsoe interception on the goalline that Lito Sheppard ran back for the game-sealing touchdown? How about it? Assuming Bledsoe could have gotten the ball in the (correct) endzone, that's a 14 point swing. In a million years I would not have expected something like that to happen. A million years. How 'bout them COWBOYS!!!


2:10 PM
All right, listen. The Cowboys are still a strong team. This just in: a team that travels to Philly this year is supposed to lose. Even if the Bears went there, people would take Phily. The Eagles are a top 5 team. In fact, you will see they're my #3 team in my Power Rankings. The fact that the Cowboys were down a touchdown and driving in the closing minutes does not mean they're a bad team. They've played 3 of 4 games on the road, losing in Jacksonville and Philly. They're doing just fine.

Their weak link is Bledsoe and pass protection, no doubt about it. The rest of this team, however, puts them in elite company. I am confident this is one of the ten best teams in the league. Very confident. I'd put them in the top 5 once their record reflects it. Their defense is young, hungry, and improving...probably a top 3 defense in the conference. Their receiving corps, including their elite Tight End, is as good as any in the NFL, remembering that Palmer and Manning throw to the ones you might put on top. They have two NFL caliber running backs. Their coach is an all time great. Only a handful of teams are as complete as this.

Indeed, it comes down to the quarterback and the offensive line. I knew the blit happy Philly defense would give them trouble and they did. Seven sacks is unacceptable in this league. Unacceptable. No one will win with that stat. Credit Philly, don't hate on the Cowboys. They will make you eat your words down the stretch.

So yeah, I have Philly at my #3 on the Rankings. Fourth and fifth I have Denevr and New England. Dropping out, of course, are the Ravens, who I have correctly assessed for weeks. I look forward to seeing your top 5. (And how about this one...who's the next worst team in football? Titans? Texans? Lions?)


3:43pm
The Cowboys are one of the best teams in the NFL. But every team knows that they will lose if you blitz Bledsoe. Interesting, very interesting. You mentioned the seven sacks for Bledsoe this past Sunday, but what about the three interceptions? As good as everything else is about the Cowboys, they will not make the playoffs with Drew Bledsoe as their QB, especially not in the NFC East. Tony Romo anyone? And doesn't Tony Romo's name sound like he should have have a moustache?

And I will credit Philly for the impressive performance they put together. I will credit Hank Baskett and Reggie Brown for outperforming Dallas' "elite receiving corps." I will credit Lito Sheppard for not dropping a pass that was thrown right to him. And I will credit the Eagles fans for not getting arrested in their attempts to heckle Terrell Owens. Let's just say that if Dallas is going to make me eat my words, I'm going to be eating a whole lot of them. GO COWBOYS!

As for the Power Rankings, I think your top 5 are solid. A case can be made for San Diego (legitimately scary with the defense, their two runningbacks, and Rivers looking swell against Pittsburgh) but it would be pointless to worry about it.

For the second worst team in the NFL it's a dead heat between the Titans and Lions. The Lions are, well, the Lions, but at least they have shown they can put points on the board. While the Titans defensive performance this Sunday made me giddy, I realized that they probably won't be able to score any more than 13 points in a game ever. Holding Manning to only one score for most of the game was just not going to happen and it didn't. Sidenote: Peyton scares me right now. That's two consecutive weeks when the Colts should have rolled through strikingly inferior teams yet the games have been very close. I swear that m*****f***** is playing possum, I swear to the spirit of Johnny Unitas. Unless he's not dead yet. Then I apologize.


3:59 PM
My point was, it's just one problem with the team, as opposed to several for most others. Problems can be fixed, and this one will be. Trust me. I'm the guy with an 11-5 record in picks. And anyone suggesting Romo is the better option is off their rocker. I'm convinced they just love the name. These are the same people who thought booting Bledsoe in favor of Losman would improve that team. It didn't. They went from playoff contender to joke overnight when they jettisoned Bledsoe. People think that there are Tom Brady's lurking in the wings. There aren't. There's only one Tom Brady, it was lightning in a bottle.

What grade do you give the Pats heading into the bye week?

4:21pm
On the conventional A-F grading scale, I'd say the Patriots have earned a B+ to A-. Two sloppy wins, a terrible defeat, two convincing wins. But I don't believe in grades. Or bye weeks. Or if and how fluffernutter is bad for you.