Football Friday: Week 3

Editors' note: Every week, these two idiots will play a Pick 'Em NFL game. The object is for each editor to pick four seemingly even NFL matchups from the upcoming weekend, challenging the other pick to the winners. A running record will be tallied. Feel free to play along at home. Leave comments with your own picks if you want to go on the record.
Standings:
Ian 3-1
Saj 2-2


10:46am
So you won Week 2 Ian. Impressive. Chicago over Detroit was a hell of a pick, it really was. If it weren't for John Fox getting cheeky on a punt return you'd be 4-0. But alas he was cheeky, and alas you came out of the weekend 3-1 only a game ahead of me. I'm not proud of 2-2, but with those games I'll take it (the flyer on the Redskins was worth the potential of being doubly rewarded by Bledsoe finding a way to be Bledsoe).

Since you picked the first four games last week, I will do the honors today, and they're tough Ian. They are tough:

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (Sun, 1:00pm)
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (Sun, 1:00pm)
NY Giants at Seattle (Sun, 4;15pm)
Green Bay at Detroit (Sun, 1:00pm)


12:59 PM
Won't be a problem, chum.........p. Here are yours:
NY Jets at Buffalo (Sun, 1:00)
Washington at Houston (Sun, 1:00)
Carolina at Tampa Bay (Sun, 1:00)
St. Louis at Arizona (Sun, 4:15)


2:58 PM
Here goes:

BUFFALO

I still think the Jets are terrible. They beat a laughably bad Tennessee team (Kerry Collins has an interception for every six completions, and VY isn’t exactly showing him up with a below 60 QB rating) and were two ridiculous plays from their wide receivers away from being thoroughly embarrassed by the future AFC East champion New England Patriots (ETA for clinching the division: Week 9. Not sure if that’s mathematically possible). Meanwhile the Bills put together two spirited defensive performances against offenses that are arguably superior to that of the Jets. To add fudge syrup to this ice cream sundae, J.P. Losman had himself a touchdown last week. If Losman can throw a touchdown pass in the NFL, well then there’s hope for anything in this crazy world of ours.

WASHINGTON

Recently discovered information about Clinton Portis:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clinton_Portis#Characters
http://www.deadspin.com/sports/nfl/coach-janky-spanky-cliffs-notes-version-147013.php

Sure this is old news to most, especially Redskins fans, but it's new to me. Clinton Portis is now my favorite player in the NFL. And while the Redskins secondary might make David Carr look like John Elway, the Texans defensive line will make Clinton Portis look like, well, Clinton Portis. It’s a must win game for the Skins to stay semi-competitive in the NFC East, and they oblige.

CAROLINA

A theory: John Fox hit his head pretty badly during the game last week and woke up thinking he was 12 again and was playing two-on-two touch football in his backyard. A likely explanation for that ill-advised lateral in a game they were completely controlling. Regardless, the Panthers looked good for a time against Minnesota while the Buccaneers looked terrible yet again. To be fair to Tampa Bay, they have played two of the stronger teams in football but Chris Simms is playing like Molly Sims. The Panthers defense has shown susceptibility to the running game so far this season, but Cadillac’s back may prevent Tampa Bay from exploiting it. Toss in a dash of Steve Smith and Tampa is looking at an 0-3 (0-2 in the division) start to the season.

ST. LOUIS

Stephen Jackson, averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season, has a third straight 100 yard rushing game and finally finds the end zone saving the season for my fantasy team. St. Louis had some trouble last week with Frank Gore and Antonio Bryant, but Scott Linehan’s team dials it up, smothering the Cardinals running game and putting 30 points up on the board.

Simple stuff, let’s see what you got.


Time to build on a 3-1 record, 4-0 if it weren't for that aforementioned John Fox blunder.
Game 1: Jacksonville @ Indianapolis: It's actually not as hard of a pick as I thought it would be earlier in the week. I'm going Indy for a couple reasons. First, domefield advantage. The game is different on the carpet and in a controlled environment. Peyton Manning and those receivers really thrive on it. In fact, Manning is at his best when there are as little variables as possible, preferably with everything scripted. You know, like in a commercial.
Second, Jacksonville's strength is clearly its run defense. They have two bohemeth defensive tackles that absolutely ate up the last two offensive lines they confronted. It's been the irresistable force versus the 1500 pound O-Line...irresistable force wins 9 times out of 10, depending on the O-Line's blindside Tackle. The Colts, however, can win with no running game! It's nearly irrelevant to their success. They will win games passing the ball, which is why everyone who drafted Peyton Manning in their fantasy league are thanking their lucky stars for having a middle pick.
The game's in a dome. The Jaguars' defense can't possibly be as good as we've seen. I see a shoot-out here. Take the Over. Take the Colts. Pick: Indianapolis

Game 2: Cincinatti @ Pittsburgh: Which Pittsburgh Steelers team will show up - the Week 1 dominant version or the Week 2 version that got bageled? And do we read anything into the fact that Batch started that first game and Roethlisberger the second? (No.) I think Cincinatti has been waiting for this game since Carson Palmer's injury at the hands of the Steelers in last year's playoffs. I think the Steelers have been waiting for this game since Sunday night. Cincinatti may want it more, but the Steelers have two tangible things going for them. One, it's in their stadium. Two, they own the head-to-head matchups. Cincinatti has yet to learn to play tough teams, which is why, until they prove otherwise, they will have difficulties with the New Englands, the Jacksonvilles, and the Pittsburghs of the world. Pick: Pittsburgh.

Game 3: Green Bay @ Detroit: Thanks a lot. I love picking between two 0-2 teams in disarray. Is this the first playoff game of the year? Two 0-2 teams in a division with two 2-0 teams. The loser is realistically finished. Oh-and-three teams don't make the playoffs. So which of these teams have no shot at the playoffs? The answer is Green Bay. They are terrible. If it weren't for the catastrophe known as the Oakland Raiders, the Pack would be the worst team in football. At least the Lions have talent and some hope. AND the game's in Detroit? Pick: Detroit.

Game 4: NY Giants @ Seattle: Last year, the Seattle Seahawks beat the Giants in a game Seattle had no business winning (the 3 missed game winners from Feeley). In fact, this happened twice to Seattle last year (2 missed game winners from the Dallas kicker). Both ended up being OT victories for Seattle. Could those games have played a part in Seattle getting the 1 seed last year? Yes. Does that mean Seattle might have been overrated heading into this year? Yes. Does this mean I am finally picking a road team this week? No. Seattle has a better running back, quarterback, receiving corps, and head coach. The Giants defense looks great on paper, and they talk a big game, but they haven't proven ANYthing yet. I'm taking Seattle, but let me just say I think you're wrong about Eli. I think he's going to be a top 5 QB in this league before you turn 25. Pick: Seattle

Ok, so I'm probably wrong about Eli. But you're wrong about Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Green Bay, and New York. Getting ready for 0-4, Ian?

NFL: Week 2 Recap

7:16 AM
I: What have we learned? We've learned the Jaguars are pretty darn good. We've learned the Panthers, a trendy NFC pick, are in trouble. We've learned the NFC East is as competetive as we expected. We've learned the Patriots are going to go 6-0 in the division.

The top story of Week 2 is the emergence of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars are nasty. I think Drew and the Cowboys got vindicated on Monday night, and they didn't even play. Their struggles in Jacksonville during week 1 are nothing compared to the struggles of the defending champs last night. It is becoming clear that there are three dominant defensive teams in the NFL. The Bears and Ravens were the obvious ones. The Jaguars are becoming the third. This team is extremely dangerous.

What are your thoughts from Week 2?

12:42 PM
S: Top story of Week 2? No interceptions for Drew Bledsoe. Just kidding.

You're definitely right about the Patriots and the AFC East. It took two absolutely ridiculous plays by Jet wide receivers to even make the game close, people tend to ignore this fact. Jericho Crotchery getting flipped upside down and staying on his feet was an amazing play, but a lucky one (he landed on Eugene Wilson). And Laveranues Coles' run was brilliant, arguably a better football play than Crotchery's, but these aren't plays that will help a team like the Jets win on a weekly basis.

I still have faith that Miami will right ship and and finish with a winning record. Culpepper looked terrible against the Bills and took at least six more sacks than he should have. As he gets more comfortable with his receivers and learns to look for the open man, he will come around. He is too good not to.

The Colts may have scored 43 points, but they allowed 24. I understand that 21 of those points came in the fourth quarter when the Colts were already ahead 30-3, but letting David Carr throw for three scores and letting Ron Dayne, Wali Lundy, and Sam Gado gut you for 4.7 yards a carry does not bode well for Week 3 when they face a Jacksonville team with a deadly defense and a healthy Fred Taylor who went for 120 or so all purpose yards against the Steelers defense. Byron Leftwich was very efficient against Pittsburgh with a 66% completion percentage for 260 yards and with Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, and Ernest Wilford at receiver the Colts secondary will be kept busy all game.

Still not completely sold on the Chargers. Beating up on Oakland and Tennessee is like dropping a guy two weight classes lower than you in boxing. Wait until you match up against the heavyweights...


12:55 PM
So the matchup of this week is clearly Jacksonville at Indianapolis. The winner is probably the early favorite to win the conference, and therefore also the early Superbowl favorite. Am I wrong?

I can't even blame the media at this point for overlooking the Pats. The wide receiving corps is a huge issue. We will hear "Tom Brady is great, but he needs someone to throw to" countless times as the season progresses. The more learned Pats fan, however, understands Branch is not a gamechanger. He's not a top 10 wideout. Sure, we'd be better with him, but this team has plenty of weapons still intact. It'd be like if Wayne Knight left the Seinfeld cast. (Jerry-Belechik, Kramer-Brady, Elaine-Seymour, George-Harrison)

What surprises me is HOW little the national media thinks of this Patriot squad. Check out the ESPN Power Rankings. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/powerranking The Pats are ranked 10th, not to mention the third lowest 2-0 team, ahead of only the previously pathetic Saints and Vikings.

So my question to you regarding the national media's perception of the Patriots is: What do we know that they don't? OR What do they know that we don't?


2:45PM
Everybody has an angle on the Pats, and it differs. If they're too high in the power rankings then people say they're getting preferential treatment. If they're too low then they're not getting any respect. The bottom line is that thanks to all the superbowls and Tom Brady-mania, the Patriots have been overexposed. While it's refreshing to see a team like the Jaguars or Bengals in the top five, seeing the Colts, Patriots, Eagles up there all the time can be nauseating. Not saying that I agree, just saying that I understand.

Looking at the power rankings, it would be tough to justify the Patriots being ranked above any of the teams above them. Aside from the Chargers and maybe the Bears the Patriots have had the easiest first two games of the 2-0 teams. But the Patriots have only scored nine more points than their opponents while the Bears and Chargers proceeded to swallow and digest their opponents with gusto.

While you can make a case for the Patriots at 9 over the Steelers after that embarassing display on Monday night, you have to remember that the Steelers have given up less total points to two better teams and they did have to face Jacksonville's defense on the road with a still in preseason form Ben Roethlisberger. If we're making projections then Steelers may not even have a winning record in the NFC North let alone miss the playoffs, but we're not. The power rankings react to what happens now, on the field. If anything, I'd drop the Seahawks down and move the Falcons and Jaguars up. By the end of the season the Patriots will be a reluctant inclusion in the top 5 and Brady will cry "NO RESPECT."

As for the Pats offense, lost in all the Deion Branch hoopla (and you're right, he's not that good) is the fact that they've ran for a total of 330 yards, 180 of which against a surprisingly good Buffalo defense. They're no Falcons running game (558 yards, three guys over 100) but this has to be the best rushing attack for the Patriots this side of Curtis Martin. Thoughts?


3:13 PM
Excellent breakdown of the Pats ranking. You convinced me. Other teams have beat better teams or beat bad teams in a better way. The Pats just do whatever it takes to beat whoever is in front of them.

Remember, however, that this has been a staple for New England in this era of dominance. The last five Patriots teams have not been much for blowing teams out a la the Colts and Rams. Even when the Pats were the unquestioned supreme team in football, they still beat teams by a field goal and/or touchdown. The difference now is that they aren't coming off a Superbowl. When they are coming off a Superbowl, their narrow margins are a testament to their gritty toughness and clutch performances. When they are coming off a second round playoff loss, their narrow margins are chalked up to not having the ability to dominate. In the former case, this means they are still #1. In the latter case, it's enough reason to keep them out of the top 5. It is my prediction that, one by one, these teams ranked ahead of them will lose. Meanwhile, New England will run out to 5-1 and 7-2 with their one possession victories and steadily climb the charts in the minds of fans and the media.

Of course, a big part of this has to do with the cake division. Nevertheless, the cake division will aid the quest for homefield advantage in the playoffs, giving the cold-weather Patriots a huge boost.

As far as the Patriots' running backs are concerned, this is without question our best lot since I started following them. Curtis Martin is undoubtedly the best single talent to come out of the Patriot backfield, but between Dillon, Maroney, and Kevin Faulk, this is a phenomenally versatile platoon. Dillon's the power, Maroney has the scatback ability, and Faulk has that tremendous pass catching ability, a skill never so important considering Brady's depleted weaponry.

The Atlanta Falcons are scary good. I might have a new pick for the NFC soon. I'm pulling hard for the Cowboys, and I think Seattle and the G-Men are serious contenders, but the Falcons have everything it takes to win. They can control the clock with the best running attack in football, and their defense is not too shabby. Mike Vick is the biggest variable since Bo Jackson. Maybe he doesn't pass for 200 yards a game, but Warrick Dunn didn't turn into a rushing machine overnight. If you have Defensive Ends and linebackers keeping an eye on Vick the whole time, there will be holes for the running attack. The biggest problem the Falcons have is a questionable head coach, but he's young and can learn.

Baseball: Playoff Team Prognosticating

6:14 PM
I: Bad news. Very bad news. Something occured to me today while grading an essay on the Neolithic Agricultural Revolution...

The New York Yankees are going to win the World Series.

Yeah, it totally sucks. It's bad for baseball, especially when they beat the New York Mets to do it. But it's going to happen. I will now chug a bottle of rubbing alcohol.


6:59 PM
S: Try mouthwash, it goes down easier. Before we go listing all the "rational baseball arguments" you can make for the Yankees winning the World Series this season, and for some darn reason there are a lot of them, let us not forget the incredible force with which we hate them. I hate them more than I hate bee stings. I hate them more than I hate really really cold weather. I hate them more than I hate JAY LENO. And I really hate Jay Leno.

That being said, when they win the World Series after scoring 80 runs in five games against the sacrificial NL pennant winner I will refuse to believe that it happened. Fucking cheaters.


7:35 PM
I don't think the baseball community realizes what's going, especially New Englanders. For most in our region, the baseball season ended with Boston Massacre III. It was football season even before the Bills came to Gilette.

The American League is, without question, the dominant league. The only NL team that could beat an American League lineup are the pitching rich Houston Astros, and they're not making it. This is why we stay in the AL when discussing World Series contenders. There are five remaining survivors in the AL. The Yanks and the A's have clinched. The Tigers, Twins, and White Sox will battle it out in the AL Central for the division and wild card. Here is the division with 13 games to play:

Al Central
Detroit
Minnesota (1 back)
Chicago (5 back)

And Chicago and Detroit open up a 3 game series tonight. Therefore, barring a complete collapse by Minnesota, the Twins will get in the playoffs. Either Detroit wins the series, effectively eliminating Chicago, or Chicago wins the series giving Minnesota the inside track to the division title.

So Minnesota is in. The problem is, they got to this point riding the stalwart pitching of Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano. Liriano is done for the year, making the Twins a MUCH weaker team. So weak that they aren't playoff quality. (If Liriano was healthy, this would be my World Series pick. But Santana can't carry them by himself. This is a first round knockout waiting to happen. Now they're only good. Before they were great.)

And let's face it, the odds are Chicago isn't getting in. Five games back with thirteen to play are long odds. This is the only team still alive that can possible topple the Yanks, so keep an eye on them to run off a winning streak. They probably have to go 10-3 to have a shot.

Recent playoff history shows only a couple AL teams can play with the Yankees, especially in the playoffs: Boston and The Los Angeles California Angels of Anaheim California. They are the only two teams that have stood up to them in the American league since 1997. They are the only two teams not afraid of them and not afraid of Rivera.

Oakland has buckled to the Yanks in the playoffs, multiple times. Ditto on Minnesota. And Detroit? They had a double digit lead in their division and are now only a game up, not to mention this is their first taste of meaningful fall baseball. Can those young, inexperience players really hang with New York? Can those pitchers get through the highest paid lineup in the history of the game? No and no.

See? It's decided. The New York Yankees are going to the World Series. If they don't, with that payroll, with that lineup, with no Boston, Chicago, or Anaheim in their way, they're an absolute joke.

And who will they see in the World Series? They'll see some National League team who will get run over like Billy Joel's mailbox. The Mets are the class of the National League, almost like they don't belong in it. In the American League, they're probably behind the Yankees, Boston, Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago, Oakland, and Anaheim. But they could at least hang with those guys. The Mets in the NL instead of the AL is like Danny Almonte in Little League instead of Senior League. They're still good, but nowhere near special.

Agreements? Disagreements?