MLB: Second Half Predictions

Ian, before we get to our hare-brained second half predictions, let's assess last night's All Star game- particularly the end. Let's pretend that you're Tony La Russa. Let's say yesterday morning you woke up in your hotel (rising from the hyperbolic chamber in which you sleep) ordered a coffee and a croissant from room service, turned the television to the weather channel and stepped out on your balcony to breath in the fresh San Franciscan air. And then you said to yourself, "Tony, you handsome sexagenarian, if by some stroke of serendipity your National League squad finds itself down by one run with the bases loaded, two outs in the ninth inning, and career league-average hitter Aaron Rowand at the plate, by gum, you will let that Rowand boy hit. Sure you could pinch hit the best righthanded hitter in the game, Albert Pujols, and, yes, Pujols is to Rowand as Optimus Prime is to a Chevy Silverado, but why give the National League the best chance to win the game when you can lose the game AND piss off your best player at the same time?" I'm assuming that question is no longer rhetorical because that's exactly what Tony La Russa did. Why, Tony? Why?


I was watching the game with buddies Greg and Pete, and the lot of us were befuddled. We assumed that Pujols was injured and LaRussa didn't want to play his own player in an quasi-exhibition game. However, from what I've read after the game, Pujols was ready to go. Therefore, LaRussa not only robbed the NL from breaking a 9-now-10-year losing streak, not only did he rob the NL from a chance at homefield advantage in the World Series, but he also robbed us, Major League Baseball fans, from perhaps the most exciting All-Star at bat of this generation! And for that, he should not be forgiven.

If you want the answer as to why he did this, I'm sure you already read LaRussa's cockamamie excuse as to Pujols' versatility in extra innings... but since when has a manager managed for extra innings when he was DOWN ONE RUN in the ninth. A tie game is one thing, but down a run in the ninth or the bottom of an extra inning? Does Terry Francona let David Ortiz run if they're down one in the 10th? Not a chance. He gets a pinch runner. You need that run to win. I mean, managers often pinch run their second catcher in an extra innings without another catcher on the roster because they need that run to keep playing. You figure out who's playing where AFTER you extend the game.

And if the answer to all these criticisms are, "It's just an exhibition," than that is precisely the reason as to why the move should have been made. It would have been fun to see a couple guys out of position in an All-Star Game. And if the answer to that is, "The game counts, no fooling around," than Albert Pujols must see an at bat there. End of story.

I rest my case.

Saj, get us started on second half predictions.


You know, I was all set to do this: internet research, lots of reading and statistics, but I really don't want to. In lieu of any of that, here are some arbitrary statements about the next three months of baseball.

1. The Philadelphia Phillies will make the playoffs. Chase Utley will hit 45 more homeruns, the last 15 or so he'll will out of the park using only his mind and his crystal clear blue eyes. Girls you can have Cole Hamels and Grady Sizemore, the Chaser is all mine. Oh, and Brett Myers will remember that he's f****** Brett Myers. Not the beating his wife part but the good at pitching part.

2. Everyone will jump off the "Detroit Tigers are the best team in baseball" bandwagon when Curtis Granderson (of blogging fame) breaks his wrist in August and the damn thing crashes into a telephone pole. Lucky for them, the Los Angeles Angels bandwagon will pick them up when the Angels make an ill-advised trade for a hitter they don't need. None of this will prevent both these teams from being obliterated in the postseason by Boston. Angels Note: Reggie Willits will end the season hitting below .280.

3. Unless it has already happened, Ichiro will not sign an extension with Seattle. Please be aware that the rules of time do not apply to this statement. So, technically, I can't be wrong.

4. Barry Bonds will hit homeruns 755 and 756 in the same day and as he crosses homeplate the second time he will remove a mask to reveal that he is actually Mark McGwire and the real Barry Bonds has been locked in a basement since 1999. McGwire will go on to tell the media that he got the idea from the 1986 comedy "Soul Man" where a white student masquerades as an African American so that he may receive a scholarship to Harvard. McGwire will also say that he "would have gotten away with it if it weren't for those meddling kids and their damn dog."

5. The Cleveland Indians will issue an "Indian of the month" 2008 calendar as a giveaway on the last day of the season. While Grady Sizemore will be Mr. April and Travis Hafner will be Mr. May, C.C. Sabathia will be Mr. August, Mr. September, and Mr. October. The joke here is that C.C. Sabathia is fat.

6. The San Diego Padres will win the NL Pennant by sweeping the Phillies prompting Fox to go into panic mode when the Mariners take a 3-1 lead on the Red Sox in the ALCS. Before Game 5, a ski-mask clad Chris Myers will take a lead pipe to Ichiro's knee destroying Seattle's morale and saving postseason ratings from West Coast irrelevance. Ichiro will silently lament not signing that ridiculous contract the Mariners offered him back in July but then he will smile wryly because he appreciates the irony. Unless, of course, it has already happened.

Ian?


How in Mike Greenwell's name am I supposed to counter those rock solid, take-it-to-the- bank predictions? I mean, the don't even have to play the rest of the regular season anymore. Saj has figured it out for us.

Anyway, instead of building to my World Series prediction, I will start there (kind of) and work my way back. I'll start with this:

The two most important players in determining the World Series participants are the same two most important players of the 2004 season and playoffs - Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling. Simply put, those two players determine how far their respective teams advance in the playoffs.

In the case of Pedro and the New York Mets, if he looks as good as he and everyone else who has seen him says he is, the Mets will be playing in the 2007 World Series. If he's not, and especially if the Metropolitans cannot pick up another starter better than Tom Glavine, than it's the San Diego Padres in the Series. The Mets lineup is the best in the National League. All they need is two quality starters which they currently don't have. It's as simple as that.

Verdict for NL Champion
A good or better Pedro = New York
An average or worse Pedro = San Diego
Prediction - San Diego Padres, behind Jake Peavy's 2 wins and a win from David Wells and someone else, and thanks to lackluster performances from the Mets pitching staff, are in the World Series.

In the case of Schilling and the Boston Red Sox, if Schilling returns to at least 80% of the typical playoff Curt Schilling, the Red Sox are going to win the World Series. If not, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka are not enough to topple the Detroit Tigers.

Verdict for AL Champion
A good or better Schilling = Boston
An average or worse Schilling = Detroit
Prediction - Schilling, at forty years of age and decidedly out of shape, does not bounce back like he once could. Detroit matches up very well with the BoSox and takes the series in a classic seven games.

Rounding out the playoffs - Milwaukee falls apart, and a sizzling second half from Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and the Chicago Cubs' lineup gives the Cubs the NL Central. The Brew Crew and the Dodgers battle it out for the wild card, but the Dodgers' experience is victorious and earn the honor of once again traveling to New York in the first round... where they will again lose.

Over in the AL, the Yankees do make an August and September push, taking advantage of many games with Tampa, Baltimore, and Toronto. However, this postseason will give way to many "Out like the Yankees in October" jokes, as the Cleveland Indians return to the playoffs as the AL wildcard. The Tigers start their World Series run with a drubbing over the AL West Champion Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

That's it. Predictions locked in. I'll be sure to post this link again in October.

MLB: First Half Awards

(we're playing with the colors, bear with us)

All right, Saj, the All-Star Break has arrived. Time for some first half awards.

MVP

NL

National League MVP to date: Prince Fielder
Reasoning: The Milwaukee Brewers are in first place. The Milwaukee Brewers. Are in first place. Formerly consistent losers, the Milwaukee Brewers are in first place. Not only are they in first place, but at 4.5 games, they have the largest division lead in in the National League, and second largest division lead in the majors after the Red Sox domination of the AL East. Therefore, the Brewers' surprising success combined with their relative comfort on their perch makes me want to search their squad for the to-date NL MVP. Their best hitter, Prince Fielder, is headed to his first All-Star Game. He leads the NL in homeruns and slugging, he's second in RBI, and he's fifth in runs.
National League MVP at the end of the year: Carlos Beltran
Reasoning: The Brewers are going to lose their division lead. The Mets are going to pull away with the best record in the National League, and they're going to do it because their stud center-fielder will heat up like an oven.

Saj? NL MVP?

Completely in agreement. At this point in the season, Prince Fielder gets the award. By the end of the season watch out for the following two guys: Chipper Jones and Chase Utley. Jones is quietly putting together one of his best seasons and Utley is on pace to set new career highs in RBIs and Total Bases. While I can't see Beltran winning the award (if it's a Met, I think it'll be Wright or Reyes) I do think the NL MVP will come out of the East.

AL

American League MVP to date: Alex Rodriguez. I know the whole "the MVP has to play for a winning team" argument, but what Alex Rodriguez is doing this year is ridiculous. And once he's got his filthy hands around another MVP award it will be that much sweeter when he opts out and leaves New York for Chicago or LA. Go ahead, Ian. Make the argument for Magglio Ordonez.

American League MVP at the end of the year: Rodriguez. Ordonez's average will drop like a French hooker's panties on Bastille Day. And that, ladies and gentlemen, was my "Dennis Miller would make that joke" joke of the day.

American League MVP to date: Vladimir Guerrero

Reasoning: In 2003, Alex Rodriguez won the AL MVP while playing for the last place Texas Rangers. Tell me, Saj. How valuable is a guy whose team finished in last place? I mean, if he wasn't on their team, what place might they have come in? LasteR? Besides, aren't teams always better when he leaves?

The American League MVP to date is not Arod, nor is it Magglio Ordonez (and if it were Maggs, I'd have to pick someone else after your snide comment). The AL MVP to date is Vladimir Guerrero. The reason? The Tigers and Yankees have a MUCH better supporting cast to surround their best hitters. On the Tigers, Gary Sheffield, Placido Polanco, Carlos Guillen, and Pudge Rodriguez are all having very good seasons; even Curtis Granderson and Sean Casey bring something to the table. The Yankees simply aren't performing well, and I can't help but think of Arod was released today, the Yanks would go on a huge tear without him. The Angels after Vlad Guerrero do not have the supporting casts of the other division leaders in the AL, and yet they are within a half game of both the Tigers and the Red Sox for the league's best record. Thank Vlad.

American League MVP at the end of the year: Magglio Ordonez.

Reasoning: I suspect that Detroit Tigers will end up with the best record in baseball, and Magglio's great season will be why. Best player on the best team is usually a safe bet.

Cy Young Award

AL

American League Cy Young to date: Dan Haren

Reasoning: Just last week, Saj and I predicted that Josh Beckett would be names AL All-Star Game starter. A reader emailed us and begged to differ, stating it'd be Dan Haren. He was right. We were wrong. But he doesn't have his own blog, so here's my chance to rectify it. Dan Haren's ERA (2.30) leads the league. I've always been a fan of the lowest ERA winning the Cy Young, unless there's a reeeeeal good case made in other categories by one other pitcher (usually K's, Wins, WHIP). Since Haren is second in the AL in WHIP (1.00!), and fourth in wins, I can ignore his paltry ninth place ranking in K's.

American League Cy Young at the end of the year: Josh Beckett

Reasoning: Because he's going to get to the magic number: 20+ wins.

Ian, you ignorant slut. There's no way you can ignore a season like ARod's. No way. At least you're right about Haren being the Cy Young Award winner thus far. As for Haren's second half, he will fade and fade spectacularly. In his place will rise the most usual of suspects: Johan Santana. As I said in the previous post: "...I think Haren ends the season with an ERA above 3.50. And I think Santana drops his ERA another half run and wins the Cy Young Award..." It's pretty much fact that when I quote myself I'm right.

NL

National League Cy Young to date: Jake Peavy. Brad Penny has more wins, Chris Young has a lower ERA, but Peavy ranks second in both and leads the league in K, K/9, and awesomeness.

National League Cy Young at the end of the year: Jake Peavy. He's very good at what he does. Honorable Mention: Cole Hamels.

National League Cy Young to date: Peavy

Reasoning: Because he's the best pitcher in the National League to date.

National League Cy Young at the end of the year: Pedro Martinez

Reasoning: Just kidding. Jake Peavy

Good, sensible answer.

Rookie of the Year

NL

NL ROY to date: Much has been said about Hunter Pence of the Houston Astros and for good reason. The guy is leading the NL in batting (.342) and he runs kinda funny (evidence here). A great case can be made for Ryan Braun of the Brewers who is batting .350 in 40 games with 11 homers, but I'm giving the midseason nod to Pence because he's played 24 more games and Sportscenter anchors are wont to crack up during his awkward fielding highlights.

NL ROY at the end of the year: Braun. What he's done so far, extrapolated over a whole season is a 45 homer, 130 RBI season with an OPS+ of 173. And there's no reason why he won't continue to beat the crap out of major league pitching. Braun slugged .726 in the 113 at-bats he took in AAA this season (his only at-bats ever in AAA) and when he was drafted in 2005 he was considered to be the consensus best athlete available. Others drafted that year: Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Troy Tulowitzki, Jacoby Ellsbury, Craig Hansen, and Mike Pelfrey. Okay, the last two were jokes but those first five include a former National High School player of the year and the second-coming of George Brett. An infield of Ryan Braun, J.J. Hardy, Rickie Weeks, and Prince Fielder; this is like God rewarding Brewers fans for their patience. Imagine if Yi Jianlian and his agents relent, we're talking a duel sport revival in the "Cream City" (yes, that's an actual nickname for Milwaukee). Side Yi Note: Ian, if ten years ago you told me an NBA team would have a starting front court featuring a Chinese player and a big white guy from Australia I probably would have lost a lot of respect for you.

Saj, the thing about our relationship is, you never respect me until ten years after I say something. And since we've known each other since Fall 1998, we're just over a year from me earning your respect. I can't wait.

NL ROY to date: It's Pence. No rookie has any business leading the National League in hitting. Hitting takes too much trial and error to do well, especially at the major league level. A rookie beating out the likes of Matt Holliday, Chipper Jones, Chase Utley, Miguel Cabrera, and Todd Helton is out of this world impressive.

NL ROY at the end of the year: If he ends up winning the batting title, it HAS to be Pence. If he doesn't, The Next Big Thing Ryan Braun will take it home.

AL

AL ROY to date: Can I have a three way tie between three Red Sox? If yes, I award the ROY to Hideki Okajima, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Dustin Pedroia. If not, I'll single out Okajima. In my estimation, he's the MVP of the Red Sox this year. Think about that. A middle reliever is the MVP on a team with the best record in the American League. He deserves it though, a 0.83 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, he's holding opponents to a .191 Slugging Percentage (!!), and the only homerun he's given up all year was to the first batter he faced in his major league career.

AL ROY at the end of the year: Daisuke Matsuzaka has had a phenomenal second half to the first half of the season. He's pitching like an experienced veteran and has the potential to be the best starter in the AL in the second half of the season. That probably makes him the AL Rookie of the Year.

AL ROY to date: As valuable as Okajima has been to the Red Sox, I can't see giving the ROY award to someone who has thrown just 43 innings. Don't get me wrong, I LOVE Okajima. In fact, I think I'm going to get 1,000 "Okajima is my Oka-jigga" t-shirts printed so I can sell them out of a box on Yawkey Way. That being said, and apologies to Reggie Willits and Dustin Pedroia, I have to give the midseason ROY to Daisuke. Before getting touched up by the Tigers in his last start, he went six starts giving up a total of six earned runs and striking out 51, lowering his ERA a whole run in the process.

AL ROY at the end of the year: I really want to give this award to Pedroia, but he's not on pace to collect the raw numbers (runs, RBIs, HRs) that people salivate over. If this last month and a half is any indicator of the future, it's going to be Daisuke, who looks like he could also make a serious run at the Cy Young.

Pence-Braun Note: Not to blow up your spot, Ian, but while Pence is leading the league with a .342 average, Matt Holliday is right behind him at .341, and Pence's OBP is a low (for his batting his average) .367. He's walked ten times in 64 games. As I've said before: Hell, even Bill Mueller's won a batting title.



One more knock on Bill Mueller and I'll have your balls in my Red Sox 2004 World Series Champion coffee mug. Mueller drove in Roberts, Saj. MUELLER DROVE IN ROBERTS!!