Very exciting week of playoff games. And by that I mean the AFC games. The NFC games are going to be borderline unwatchable. On to the picks.
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (Saturday, 4;30pm)
ESPN's Len Pasquarelli does a decent job of breaking down what needs to happen on the surface for either of these teams to win so read that if you want all your bases covered. Here's my two cents: the most important factor in this game will be Baltimore's ability to stop the run without cramming eight guys in the box. If they can come out in their 3-4 set and keep Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes in check with seven or less guys that not only takes away the threat of a play action pass but also frees up some of their vicious linebackers to come in on various blitz packages or drop back into coverage. Last week the Chiefs gave up 196 rushing yards and Addai and Rhodes averaged 5.0 yards a carry. That's a product of defenses focusing too much on Peyton Manning. This isn't Urban Meyer's spread offense at Florida. If the Colts can't run the ball on the Ravens defense, the Colts can't pass the ball on the Ravens defense. And by the "can't run the ball and can't pass the ball" syllogism, the Colts probably won't score many points.
And what are the odds of a "They used to be the Baltimore Colts" puff piece rearing its boring, over-hyped head sometime this weekend? I swear on the ghost of Johnny Unitas that nobody gives a s*** anymore. Unless he's not dead yet. Then I apologize.
I think the Ravens defense can stop the run. I think the Colts defense will not duplicate the effort they put forth against the Chiefs last week. I think in this matchup of 2003 NFL co-MVPs Peyton Manning has the more impressive game statistically but heads his Opie Taylor ass back to Mayberry for some of Aunt Bee's "You got knocked out of the playoffs again" apple pie. The Ravens to win and to cover the 4.5 to 5 point spread.
A couple things before I get started. First, this is our 50th post of the blog, and may I say I am proud of the both of us for never letting our success go to our heads. Two lesser men surely would have given up by now.
Secondly, you didn't give the playoff standings for our contest. In a result that was eerily analogous to the regular season, I took 3 out of 4 as you split 2-2. Once again, I'm usually right and you're sometimes right. I promise you, however, that I will not play Marty-ball and keep the ball on the ground for the last three quarters. I've already made my four picks for the weekend. So let's get to them, shall we?
Saj, do you realize that the Colts used to play in Baltimore? That's such a great storyline. It's overwhelmingly relevant to the matchup. How exciting for all involved.
I don't think this game is too difficult to pick. In fact, it's the game I feel most confident picking, which isn't saying much as all four picks were onerous decisions. Ultimately, one can rely on the proven adage that dictates a good defense can slow down or stop a good offense. The Patriots have proven it countless times, often against these very Colts. Great offenses put up great season long numbers while roughing up the lesser teams. However, come playoff time, especially when they have to go on the road in January, good defenses can slow them down. And Baltimore has a GREAT defense. Pick: Baltimore wins, but a prevent defense helps Manning get inside the spread.
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (Saturday, 8:00pm)
There's an old rule about picking winners in football games. When the game is going to suck and you don't care about the outcome, pick the favorite to cover the spread. When I first saw that this was the game they chose for Saturday night, I wondered why they didn't put the Colts on primetime. Then I remembered that this was primetime on Saturday night, not Sunday. What kind of loser (Ian) is going to be sitting at home watching that game?
In football related news: The Saints are very good on offense and I am supremely confident that Reggie Bush will do something really awesome tomorrow night. Thank God for Sportscenter and TiVo because I am NOT sacrificing my date with three Brazilian swimsuit models to watch the Saints play the Eagles. New Orleans to cover the spread, Jeff Garcia to cover his bald spot with a bad hairpiece.
I'm one Brazilian swimsuit model. Who are the other two?
Yes, I will be home watching this game. I've worked over twelve hours three days this week, but most of that has been at work. I am looking forward to the three day weekend, when I only have to work eight to ten hours a day and I can do it from the comfort of my bedroom. Apparently, I've broken one of the teaching commandments: Thou shalt now assign a term paper that is due during the week of exams. I have never EVER had so much work to do in a two week stretch. Why this digression? It's all my way of saying thank God for a Saturday night football game that I can follow while grading essays and papers.
This gets me to my point. God. After forsaking New Orleans because of their sin, he has clearly decided to make amends by sending their football team to the Superbowl. So even though God shows the emotion of wrath, he also shows that he admits he's fallible. What a guy. I mean God. Pick: New Orleans covers. Reggie Bush scores. Donovan McNabb rejoices.
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (Sunday, 1:00pm)
The spread for this game is somewhere near nine points with the Bears favored and why not? They demolished the Seahawks earlier in the season, they still have their defense, and it's going to colder in Chicago than the Propecia Matt Hasselbeck applies to his scalp (assuming Propecia has to be refrigerated before use.) Wow, that's two digs at bald/balding quarterbacks for me. Thank God for Tom Brady and his full head of hair.
Speaking of Tom Brady, a game like this makes me realize how much I love him. Call it what you will, hetero or homo, I love the man. In contrast, the Bears have Rex Grossman. Yikes. Personally, I think too much is being made of out Grossman's poor performance lately. The Bears don't need him to play well to win, they could beat Seattle if they punted on every first down and routinely had eight to ten defenders on the field. I'm not sure if that's a testament to how bad Seattle is or how good Chicago is, but it's a testament to how badly one team will beat the other. I hesitate to take the Bears to cover here, just because I'm not sure if they will even score nine points. Bears to win but not cover.
First, I agree completely with the person who commented on today's blog. Second, you made a great point on Grossman. So many fans in the NFL are scared everytime their quarterback drops back. Patriots fans haven't had that feeling since Tony Eason (Shut up, Saj. Just shut up. I'm really stressed out.).
I just realized that not only is each game difficult to pick, but they are increasingly more difficult as the the weekend progresses. The espn experts would seem to disagree, as they are all but unanimous picking the top seeds this weekend.
I think this spread is way too high. Chicago is not a dominant team. How can a team that has no idea how they will score their points be over a touchdown favorite? I mean, you can't ASSUME the defense will score points. Sure, they do often, but not every week. Moreover, the chief ball-handlers of Seattle (Hasselbeck and Alexander) are experienced both in tenure and in the playoffs. They aren't nearly as turnover prone as other teams, especially in the playoffs. If they were, you wouldn't be able to explain three straight winning seasons with playoffs appearances capped off with a trip to the Superbowl.
Chicago, meanwhile, has Rex Grossman leading a mediocre offense whose ONLY playoff appearance in the last five years was last year. And what happened in that appearance? They lost after a first round bye. Pick: Seattle outright.
New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers (Sunday, 4:30pm) GOTY
Picking Seattle outright? You're insane. As for the GOTY, there's another when it comes to picking football games: Saj is a homer. I'm taking the Patriots here principally because I can't allow myself to pick against them. I could cook up some rationalizations for why they win this game, but I really don't care to. PATRIOTS.
To stop LT, the Patriots need to put 7-8 men in the box. If they do that, Gates cannot be properly guarded. I had Gates on both my fantasy teams and I was waiting all season for his 2006 breakout game. It looks like he was just waiting for 2007. He catches two touchdowns and LT has another. New England will feel like they're doing a good job on LT, and then he'll break a big one out of nowhere and it'll hurt bad.
If the Patriots can lose to last year's Broncos team, they can definitely lose to this year's Chargers team. The New England fan base is way too confident heading into this game. San Diego is better. They're just better. It's not a slight that most people are taking the Chargers. The Pats lost to Miami and the Jets, for Pete's sake. And now Pats fans want to think we're going into San Diego and beating them? It's insane.
I mean come on. The Chargers have the best record in football. They went undefeated at home. They have the best football player on the planet. They're very strong on both sides of the football. How in the hell can Patriots Nation be so confident? Is there an objective answer out there?
Yes. Yes there is. And it reads like this: 2001-2002 Rams. 2002-2003 Colts. 2003-2004 Steelers. Tom Brady. Bill Belichick. Pick: PATRIOTS
GO PATS!!!
Friday, January 12, 2007
Thursday, January 11, 2007
NFL: The Game of the Year
The New England Patriots at the San Diego Chargers is the best and most important NFL game since last year's Superbowl. This is not hyperbole. Name me a better one. You can't.
The winner of this game will be the favorite in the AFC Championship. The winner of the AFC Championship will be a heavy favorite in the Superbowl. Therefore, via the transitive property, the winner of this game is the odds on favorite to hoist the Vince Lombardi trophy.
What makes it all the more exciting is that people are having a real difficult time picking a winner. You can make a strong case for both teams.
The Patriots have four of the six most important advantages a team would want in a playoff game. The Chargers have the other two, as well as numbers seven through infinity. The Patriots have the far superior head coach and quarterback, they have more experience, and they should do a better job controlling the passing game on both sides, as their quarterback is bright, talented, and experienced, while their defensive line is young, strong, fast, heavy, and good.
The Chargers have two of the six most important things in their column. They will run the ball better and they will better effectively stop the run. Their back is the best in the league and their linebackers are scary good.
Saj, I will hold off my pick of the game, as I'm sure the contrarian in you will go the other way, so you're just waiting for me to make the pick. Not happening. Per last week's agreement, you're going first on all picks this week. I'd like your thought on the magnitude of this game, as well as some other subplots you'd like to discuss.
Just putting it out there, but I would have named the post "NFL: GOTY." Partially because I love useless acronyms and partially because GOTY sounds funny. Anyway, GOTY is shaping up to be positively EPIC. I'm going to go a step further than you and say that this is the most important NFL game since New England beat Indianapolis 24-14 in the 2003 playoffs. Last year's Superbowl was barely a football game, not to take anything away from the Steelers. And speaking of the Steelers and important games when I told my Steeler fan co-worker how I thought the 2003 AFC Championship was the most important game of the last four years he said, "I can see how a Patriots fan would think that," and walked away. So objectively, as a Patriots fan, I am right.
Intriguing subplot #1: Shawne Merriman.
I'm not going to moralize about his suspension for steroid abuse (or maybe I am), but I'll leave it up to James Blake via SI's Jon Wertheim to expound on punishment as rewards for steroids (middle of the page):
And that's how I feel about the Merriman suspension and the entire issue of steroids in the NFL; punishments that could double as rewards. In baseball, mere speculation has altered Mark McGwire's legacy and in soccer the punishment for even missing a scheduled drug test is somewhere near eight months. The two most damning results of a positive steroid test are 1) public perception and loss of both integrity and respect and 2) severe suspension or financial punition. Merriman skirted both, only getting a four game suspension and remaining eligible for post-season honors (Defensive Player of the Year, Pro Bowl selection, etc.) Do you see how someone could abuse this system? Let's say Merriman has a existing knee condition that requires him to either shut down for a month or apply some sort of steroid cream which would facilitate the healing process and allow him to play immediately. Assuming he could weather the financial loss of four games worth of paychecks, he knows his team is in a great position to make the playoffs, he's looking at a Pro Bowl selection regardless, and the chance of not getting caught is a non-zero number, HE DOES IT EVERY SINGLE TIME. Bottom line: the deterrent to steroid abuse in the NFL is simply not strong enough. And if you disagree, ask yourself what would happen if Merriman goes on to break the all-time NFL sack record 12 years from now. The answer is that he's going to Canton. Think about that this weekend while he's breaking Tom Brady's ribs.
Intriguing subplot #2: Bill Belichick and his God Complex.
I love Bill Belichick, but if I were anybody but a Patriots fan I would absolutely hate the guy. Boring press conferences, dresses like a hobo, dour expression, shoves camera guys in the face, he is just a very, very unhappy man. The man may be the best coach in football, but does he ever know it. A lot of that is his status in New England. He could walk along the Freedom Trail in downtown Boston screaming disparaging epithets about the city and smearing his feces all over the statue of Paul Revere and not a bad word would be said about him. And he exerts an incredible amount of control over that organization, partially a result of people cherry-picking players and coaches he effectively created. How long can the Patriots hemorrhage talent, both on the field and off, before it becomes an issue? We'll find out when one too many Deion Branchs and Charles Weises leave the team.
Intriguing subplot #3: The Chargers banning ticket sales to Patriots fans.
I'm well aware that New England fans are insufferable. But this is just petty. If you're the best team in the league and you can't fill your home stadium then, with all due respect, f*** off. Sports are all we have in New England: the weather sucks, the beaches suck, the women dress like Eskimos for eight months of the year. Throw us a bone, San Diego.
Overrated intriguing subplot #1: Marty Schottenheimer.
I'm of the "way too much is being made of Schottenheimer as a bad playoff coach" school of thought. Maybe that's just me. Maybe.
Has any team been favored by 4.5 points over the Pats in the playoffs since their win over the St. Louis Rams in Superbowl XXXVI? Since that Superbowl, New England has been followed by an incredible amount of respect from oddsmakers and learned fans of the NFL. For six years, they've been as perfect of a team as could realistically be formed in the NFL of the 21st century. They've had a great coach, a great quarterback, proud veterans who never got sick of winning (Law, McGinest, Vrabel, Bruschi, Harrison, Brown), and brilliant front office managing to continue the influx of youth through the drafts (Seymour, Warren, Wilfork, Graham, Watson, Samuel, Maroney).
Not since that Rams game has this earned respect been as tested as it is now. You mentioned the 2003 AFC Championship. Please remind your Steelers fan co-worker that the Steelers went 15-1 the next year (thanks to a regular-season victory over a banged up Pats team), had homefield throughout the playoffs, and the Patriots were still favored in the AFC championship game against them.
But the Pats are not only underdogs in an easy place to play, but they're underdogs by more than a field goal. Why? Because this San Diego team, on paper, is the best non Patriots team put together since the 2000-2001 Baltimore Ravens. Arguments?
I'm going to have to disagree with you on that last one. The best non-Patriots team of the past six or so years was last year's Colts team. Tomorrow we do the picks, chronological this time.
Teams that don't win a playoff game are not that good, especially ones that lose big home games to six seeds. See you tomorrow.
The winner of this game will be the favorite in the AFC Championship. The winner of the AFC Championship will be a heavy favorite in the Superbowl. Therefore, via the transitive property, the winner of this game is the odds on favorite to hoist the Vince Lombardi trophy.
What makes it all the more exciting is that people are having a real difficult time picking a winner. You can make a strong case for both teams.
The Patriots have four of the six most important advantages a team would want in a playoff game. The Chargers have the other two, as well as numbers seven through infinity. The Patriots have the far superior head coach and quarterback, they have more experience, and they should do a better job controlling the passing game on both sides, as their quarterback is bright, talented, and experienced, while their defensive line is young, strong, fast, heavy, and good.
The Chargers have two of the six most important things in their column. They will run the ball better and they will better effectively stop the run. Their back is the best in the league and their linebackers are scary good.
Saj, I will hold off my pick of the game, as I'm sure the contrarian in you will go the other way, so you're just waiting for me to make the pick. Not happening. Per last week's agreement, you're going first on all picks this week. I'd like your thought on the magnitude of this game, as well as some other subplots you'd like to discuss.
Just putting it out there, but I would have named the post "NFL: GOTY." Partially because I love useless acronyms and partially because GOTY sounds funny. Anyway, GOTY is shaping up to be positively EPIC. I'm going to go a step further than you and say that this is the most important NFL game since New England beat Indianapolis 24-14 in the 2003 playoffs. Last year's Superbowl was barely a football game, not to take anything away from the Steelers. And speaking of the Steelers and important games when I told my Steeler fan co-worker how I thought the 2003 AFC Championship was the most important game of the last four years he said, "I can see how a Patriots fan would think that," and walked away. So objectively, as a Patriots fan, I am right.
Intriguing subplot #1: Shawne Merriman.
I'm not going to moralize about his suspension for steroid abuse (or maybe I am), but I'll leave it up to James Blake via SI's Jon Wertheim to expound on punishment as rewards for steroids (middle of the page):
"...In tennis, the punishment for drug cheats -- suspension -- is really no punishment at all. The sport is exceptionally grueling with virtually no offseason and an unrelenting travel schedule. Telling a player, 'You have six months of no matches and no travel, but you can work on your game, improve your fitness and convalesce your aches and pains' isn't exactly a harsh sentence.
'Take a look at guys like [Juan Ignacio] Chela and now [Guillermo] Canas,' says Blake. 'They took time off [for a doping suspension] and came back playing some of their best tennis.'"
And that's how I feel about the Merriman suspension and the entire issue of steroids in the NFL; punishments that could double as rewards. In baseball, mere speculation has altered Mark McGwire's legacy and in soccer the punishment for even missing a scheduled drug test is somewhere near eight months. The two most damning results of a positive steroid test are 1) public perception and loss of both integrity and respect and 2) severe suspension or financial punition. Merriman skirted both, only getting a four game suspension and remaining eligible for post-season honors (Defensive Player of the Year, Pro Bowl selection, etc.) Do you see how someone could abuse this system? Let's say Merriman has a existing knee condition that requires him to either shut down for a month or apply some sort of steroid cream which would facilitate the healing process and allow him to play immediately. Assuming he could weather the financial loss of four games worth of paychecks, he knows his team is in a great position to make the playoffs, he's looking at a Pro Bowl selection regardless, and the chance of not getting caught is a non-zero number, HE DOES IT EVERY SINGLE TIME. Bottom line: the deterrent to steroid abuse in the NFL is simply not strong enough. And if you disagree, ask yourself what would happen if Merriman goes on to break the all-time NFL sack record 12 years from now. The answer is that he's going to Canton. Think about that this weekend while he's breaking Tom Brady's ribs.
Intriguing subplot #2: Bill Belichick and his God Complex.
I love Bill Belichick, but if I were anybody but a Patriots fan I would absolutely hate the guy. Boring press conferences, dresses like a hobo, dour expression, shoves camera guys in the face, he is just a very, very unhappy man. The man may be the best coach in football, but does he ever know it. A lot of that is his status in New England. He could walk along the Freedom Trail in downtown Boston screaming disparaging epithets about the city and smearing his feces all over the statue of Paul Revere and not a bad word would be said about him. And he exerts an incredible amount of control over that organization, partially a result of people cherry-picking players and coaches he effectively created. How long can the Patriots hemorrhage talent, both on the field and off, before it becomes an issue? We'll find out when one too many Deion Branchs and Charles Weises leave the team.
Intriguing subplot #3: The Chargers banning ticket sales to Patriots fans.
I'm well aware that New England fans are insufferable. But this is just petty. If you're the best team in the league and you can't fill your home stadium then, with all due respect, f*** off. Sports are all we have in New England: the weather sucks, the beaches suck, the women dress like Eskimos for eight months of the year. Throw us a bone, San Diego.
Overrated intriguing subplot #1: Marty Schottenheimer.
I'm of the "way too much is being made of Schottenheimer as a bad playoff coach" school of thought. Maybe that's just me. Maybe.
Has any team been favored by 4.5 points over the Pats in the playoffs since their win over the St. Louis Rams in Superbowl XXXVI? Since that Superbowl, New England has been followed by an incredible amount of respect from oddsmakers and learned fans of the NFL. For six years, they've been as perfect of a team as could realistically be formed in the NFL of the 21st century. They've had a great coach, a great quarterback, proud veterans who never got sick of winning (Law, McGinest, Vrabel, Bruschi, Harrison, Brown), and brilliant front office managing to continue the influx of youth through the drafts (Seymour, Warren, Wilfork, Graham, Watson, Samuel, Maroney).
Not since that Rams game has this earned respect been as tested as it is now. You mentioned the 2003 AFC Championship. Please remind your Steelers fan co-worker that the Steelers went 15-1 the next year (thanks to a regular-season victory over a banged up Pats team), had homefield throughout the playoffs, and the Patriots were still favored in the AFC championship game against them.
But the Pats are not only underdogs in an easy place to play, but they're underdogs by more than a field goal. Why? Because this San Diego team, on paper, is the best non Patriots team put together since the 2000-2001 Baltimore Ravens. Arguments?
I'm going to have to disagree with you on that last one. The best non-Patriots team of the past six or so years was last year's Colts team. Tomorrow we do the picks, chronological this time.
Teams that don't win a playoff game are not that good, especially ones that lose big home games to six seeds. See you tomorrow.
Tuesday, January 09, 2007
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