Editors' note: Every week, these two idiots will play a Pick 'Em NFL game. The object is for each editor to pick four seemingly even NFL matchups from the upcoming weekend, challenging the other pick to the winners. A running record will be tallied. Feel free to play along at home. Leave comments with your own picks if you want to go on the record.
Standings (Week 16 in parentheses)
Ian 28-20 (1-3)
Saj 21-27 (2-2)
I'll kick us off with some housekeeping. That reminds me of some dialogue from The West Wing.
Sam: Let me tell you people something. The GAO needs a little housekeeping, and that's my nickname, okay? I'm "The Housekeeper."
[beat]
Sam: God, that's a terrible nickname.
Josh: Well, start getting used to it for a while.
Anyway, here's the housekeeping. First, we're pushing Football Friday up to Thursday. My holiday weekend begins a little early, but the final week must be contested, as it's Saj's last hope to win the contest.
This is where you, the loyal reader of Around the Blog, might wonder, "But Ian, your worthy but misguided opponent Saj cannot win. With only four games to choose from each week, he cannot make up a seven game deficit!" And cue the second piece of housekeeping.
To celebrate the final week of a crazy NFL season, we are each picking all 16 games on the NFL's slate. For those keeping track at home, Saj must win 8 more than me to take the contest. Therefore, if I win 4 this weekend, he must win 12. This is all my way of making him feel like he's a loser for a third straight week.
On with the show...
1. NY Giants at Washington (Saturday, 8:00) - The Giants started out at 6-2 and have since been 1-6. The main difference? Quality of opponents. They played mostly bad teams the first half of the season and mostly good ones the rest of the way. Washington falls under the "bad" category. Pick: New York
2. Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (Sunday, 1:00) - You know what, I'm just going to go ahead and pick all the home teams who need a win to get into the playoffs. Knowing this NFL season, however, that's probably a death knell. Pick: Cincinnati
3. Detroit at Dallas (1:00) - See above. Pick: Dallas (This is probably the lock of the week. Dallas needs the win for a shot at a home game in the playoffs, and Detroit needs the loss to clinch the top pick, which they'll try to trade, be unsuccessful, end up taking Brady Quinn, and finally fire Matt Millen. Everybody wins. As for Dallas, Parcells would really be wise to let Bledsoe see some snaps before going to him in the playoffs.)
4. New England at Tennessee (1:00) - See above two. Pick: Tennessee (Belichick loses on purpose. We'll see Matt Cassel and Vinny in this one, as well as a running back you never heard of. Also, loyal readers might remember our Patriots predictions from last August, where we agreed on an 11-5 finish with a division title wrapped up by the final week.)
5. Jacksonville at Kansas City (1:00) - See above three. Pick: Kansas City (I would love to see a Denver Broncos screw job this weekend, but it needs a Chiefs victory to happen.)
6. St. Louis at Minnesota (1:00) - I usually hate picking St. Louis on the road, but Minnesota is a similar place to play, and the Rams offense was on fire last week. That and the Vikings suck. Pick: St. Louis
7. Carolina at New Orleans (1:00) - The Saints are locked into the two seed,with a win getting them nothing and a loss costing them nothing. The Panthers, meanwhile, need to win to have a shot at the playoffs. Pick: Carolina
8. Oakland at NY Jets (1:00) - See 2, 3, and 4. Pick: New York. (The Jets did not come this far and upend everyone's expectations to lose a game to the worst team in the league. Also, all the Raiders will be scoreboard watching the Lions game...except for Art Shell, who will be watching nothing in particular.)
9. Seattle at Tampa Bay (1:00) - Poor Seattle. They lost their best two players midway through the year, struggle to win their division, have to fly down to Tampa to play a meaningless game, then fly back to Seattle to host an NFC East team in the first round. Not good times. Pick: Seattle
10. Cleveland at Houston (1:00) - If I was NBC, I definitely would have taken this game as part of the flex package. Pick: Houston
11. San Francisco at Denver (4:15) - See 2, 3, 4, and 8. Pick: Denver (But I'll reeeeeeaaaly be pulling for an upset here. This game and the Indy game could seriously impact the Patriots chances in the playoffs.)
12. Miami at Indianapolis (4:15) - Can we even be confident with a Colts win here? They're an absolute mess. I'll swallow my pride and pull for the Dolphins in this game, as a Colts loss coupled with a New England win gets the Pats the 3 seed and, more importantly, a delayed date with San Diego, who might be upset in round 2, thereby setting up an AFC Championship game in Foxboro. Sound feasible? Come on, Miami! Pick: Indianapolis
13. Atlanta at Philadelphia (4:15) - If I had to rank the pathetic good teams, the Falcons would definitely be third behind the Colts and Giants. How can fans of those teams look at themselves in the mirror? Pick: Philadelphia
14. Arizona at San Diego (4:15) - Regular season mission almost accomplished. The Chargers are one game away from homefield throughout the playoffs. The Cardinals are one game away from doing the same thing they do every January. Pick: San Diego.
15. Buffalo at Baltimore (4:15) - I just got this feeling. Pick: Buffalo
16. Green Bay at Chicago (8:15) - At first, I questioned NBC's decision earlier this week to choose this game for Sunday Night Football. One team (Green Bay) might be eliminated by 7:30 on Sunday night. The other team (Chicago) has the #1 seed all wrapped up and might be resting some players.
And then it slowly started to dawn on me.
Either A) It's Brett Favre's last game or B) It's Brett Favre leading his team to the playoffs. Throw in that it's Chicago on December 31 (Snow and wind?), it's two superb fan bases, and it's a national look at the NFC's top team before their playoff run, and it's a pretty good matchup for NBC. I foresee huge ratings, especially if the Packers are alive.
Just imagine, as the minutes wane deeper into December 31, as New Years Day is just around the corner - as Father Time takes an extended look at all of our souls - Brett Favre, the all time great, fights off not only the Chicago Bears defense, but Father Time's sythe, in the cold and windy stage of his greatest rival's stadium. Yeah, that's good television.
"10. Cleveland at Houston (1:00) - If I was NBC, I definitely would have taken this game as part of the flex package. Pick: Houston..."
Priceless. There's nothing quite like a Derek Anderson, David Carr quarterback duel. And speaking of poor David Carr.... poor David Carr. It's like the Texans have steadfastly refused to build an offensive line in front of him. And just when he thought he was going to spend the next decade throwing screen passes to Reggie Bush, they take Mario "Sam Bowie" Williams. The Texans f***** up. Well, David, there's always the CFL.
Before I get to my picks for this week: I spent a few hours or so yesterday sorting out the the strength of victory and strength of schedule tiebreaking scenarios in the event of the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers both winning their games tomorrow. I'm talking pages of notes, calculations, protractors, slide rules, supercomputers, everything. And then today I realized that others in the media get paid to do this and present in a coherent manner. Damn you, Associated Press. I will spare you my methodology and the lengthy explanations, just read that link. Anyway, here are my picks:
1. NY Giants at Washington (1:00) - Barring wins from Detroit, Minnesota, and two of Arizona/San Francisco/Miami, if the Giants win they pretty much guarantee themselve a spot in the playoffs. It's too bad they won't win because they're playing terrible football. Meanwhile the Redskins may have nothing to play for, but they aren't playing like it having beaten New Orleans and having lost two close games to Philadelphia and St. Louis in their last three. REDSKINS
2. Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (1:00) - Bill Cowher wins this game. Bill Cowher retires. Bill Cowher comes back in three years to coach the Browns. Bill Cowher is hated in Pittsburgh. Bill Cowher refers to himself in the third person. STEELERS
3. Detroit at Dallas (1:00) - Detroit tries to throw this game to guarantee at shot at the top pick but somehow they screw that up too. Matt Millen gets a ten year contract extension after the game and Detroit fans express their happiness by burning half the city. DETROIT
4. New England at Tennessee (1:00) - Bill Belichick is a smart coach. But he is also a proud coach. No way he lets Vince "Wonderlic Wonderboy" Young win this game. Brady plays the first half and then the Cassel/Testaverde machine takes over. PATRIOTS
5. Jacksonville at Kansas City (1:00) - The winner of this game makes nine wins. That's pretty big, especially if (and when) the Broncos and and the Jets lose. I really think Kansas City wins this game, but since you picked them I'm going with Jacksonville. JAGUARS
6. St. Louis at Minnesota (1:00) - Minnesota has to win for the convoluted Packers-Giants tiebreaking scenario to be resolved in favor of the Packers. Therefore I take the Vikings. Logical to the end. VIKINGS
7. Carolina at New Orleans (1:00) - Sean Payton doesn't take it easy this week even though the Saints really have nothing to play for. With the bye week they'll already have a good deal of rest and it's best not to get rusty. Unless Brees is nursing an injury, he'll play the entire game. Look for a lot of Deuce McCallister, look for a lot of just trying not to get hurt. Look for the Panthers to suck in a game they need to win. SAINTS
8. Oakland at NY Jets (1:00) - Do I really need to explain myself? I mean, really? Last night at a bar I trying to convince a Jets fan that the Jets suck and that Chad Pennington is mentally retarded. In response he asked me what I would say if the Jets won the Superbowl and I told him I'd say pretty much the same thing. But that's like asking me what I would say if I saw a centaur and unicorn fighting over a pastrami sandwich. I mean, everyone knows unicorns are vegan so it would never happen. RAIDERS
9. Seattle at Tampa Bay (1:00) - Two words. Three syllables. Tim Ratty. Enough said. BUCCANEERS
10. Cleveland at Houston (1:00) - Mario Williams has 4.5 sacks this season. Reggie Bush has 1200+ yard from scrimmage and seven touchdowns. I can't take a team that sabotages itself like that. Gotta go with my man, Romeo. BROWNS
11. San Francisco at Denver (4:15) - This game is a must win for the 49ers in terms of the Packers-Giants tiebreaker. And beating Denver makes the AFC playoff picture that much more interesting. I don't fear Denver in the playoffs as much as Ian does. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate lead to suffering. 49ERS.
12. Miami at Indianapolis (4:15) - What has twenty-two legs and sucks? If you guessed a twenty-two legged vampire bat, you'd be wrong. It's the Colts defense. Get it? You see, there are eleven players on the defensive side of a football team and each of those players has two legs. I'll give it some time to sink in. DOLPHINS
13. Atlanta at Philadelphia (4:15) - Atlanta wins this game. Philly, due to the Dallas loss, still wins their division. Jim Mora Jr. accepts a job offer from the Temple University football team at halftime. ATLANTA
14. Arizona at San Diego (4:15) - Another one of the games that has to go in the Packers favor in the event of a tiebreaker. San Diego wants homefield, but they'll be happy to get out of this game without any injuries. CARDINALS
15. Buffalo at Baltimore (4:15) - Buffalo needs this game to end the season at 8-8 and I believe in them. But I don't believe in them enough to score points on this Baltimore defense. Final score: Baltimore 10, Buffalo -6. RAVENS
16. Green Bay at Chicago (8:30) - You didn't pick a winner for this game, so I'm going to pick one for you. You picked Chicago. You're against the spirit of competition and you don't want to see the Packers in the playoffs. You hate Brett Favre and you hate America. Just move to Kandahar and change your name to Ian Walker Lindh. PACKERS!
HaHA! You totally fell for it. I had no idea who to take Sunday night. Who are the most inconsistent players in the NFL? Any list that doesn't include Mike Vick and Brett Favre at the top should be exposed to 451 degrees of heat.
Anyway, as I can see that SNF game going in a myriad of ways, I thought I'd dupe you into making a pick before me. Then, I would take whoever you didn't. That's the only way I could guarantee greater than a 50-50 shot. Pick: Chicago
I've heard recently that this might not be Favre's last season. So I have to ask you - How will the rest of the Packers season affect Favre's decision? Does a win tomorrow night convince him to stay? Does a playoff appearance convince him to stay? Or does either one of those things convince him to go out with some dignity? What do you think?
Anything short of a Superbowl brings Brett Favre back. Favre is gonna play as long as he physically can and only a championship will keep him from coming back. Although a slightly successful playoff run might prove enough of a happy ending to leave the NFL. In short, I have no idea. GO PACKERS!
Thursday, December 28, 2006
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Gerald Ford: An athlete and a President
| Former President Gerald Ford died Tuesday at the age of 93. Early reports are that he may have been senselessly eaten by wolves. And Tom Brokaw may be gay. Dana Carvey had no idea how prescient he really was. (Saturday Night Live, ca. 1996) | |
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
NFL: Week 16 Recap
What in the name of Science is going on?
Has anyone who doesn't get paid for it taken a look at the clinching scenarios? How about the wild playoff standings that show 20 of the 32 NFL teams still alive heading into the last week? It's crazier than a caffeinated Tom Cruise. One scenario paints this picture beautifully.
The Packers have five clinching scenarios, four of which are unique from each other. The most likely scenario alone is enough to make ones head look like that bald guy at the end of Raiders of the Lost Arc. Try to follow along as I try to articulate the language of nonsense into the more familiar language of gibberish.
The New York Giants and Green Bay Packers are currently the 6th and 7th teams in the NFC, respectively. Only the top 6 get in. So, one would assume if they both won, then the Giants would stay at 6 and get in, while the Packers would stay at 7 and be the first team out. However, this is not necessarily the case.
The reason the Giants get in over the Packers is because the Giants win the 3rd tiebreaker - record against common opponents, or teams that both New York and Green Bay have played. The Giants have one more win against common opponents than the Packers (Laughably, it turns out the Giants have one win against common opponents and the Packers have zero). The catch is that in Week 17, the Packers play one such common opponents - the Chicago Bears. The Giants play a non-common opponent in the Washington Redskins. Therefore, the Packers can make up that game in the last week. So, since we're assuming they both win and remain tied in their overall record, the Packers tie the Giants in the 3rd tiebreaker. That means it goes to the 4th tiebreaker - strength of victory. And, as Saj himself put it so eloquently last night: "What does that even mean?"
Neither of us are sure, but I'm fairly certain it's the equivilent of the BCS' margin of victory. And according to everything I can find, this tiebreaker is still up in the air. I suspect, considering the sizeable fanbases of the G-Men and Pack, that there will be a lot of number crunching by ESPN and the like to figure out what has to happen this weekend if both teams win.
I'll turn it over to you Saj. Thoughts on the NFL right now? How about our beloved Patriots and their possible playoff road? (We can finally talk about it now that the Pats clinched.)
Before I get into the NFL, I want to discuss something vastly more important: the dangers of fantasy football. If you have been reading this blog for the past months then you know that for a period of time Jon Kitna was the starting quarterback for both of my fantasy football teams. Jon Kitna. That should give you an idea of how my seasons went. But somehow I ended up, to Ian's chagrin, in the title game of our league this past weekend. And in true Saj form I overthought my starters and benched Trent Green, Chris Chambers, Reggie Bush and the Minnesota defense for Alex Smith, Braylon Edwards, Ronnie Brown and St. Louis, a -32 point swing in a week where I lost by THREE POINTS.
But the worst part about that loss was that I was completely engrossed in watching that trainwreck of a Monday night game between the Jets and the Dolphins. And THAT is the true danger of fantasy football. It will compel even the most honorable and stoic of men to degrade themselves by watching three hours of the most horrendous football games. That game was so bad Kornheiser and Theisman had to force themselves to trade barbs. It was like the sloppy play, Kornheiser's seasonal depression, and Theisman's probable drinking problem just took the fight out of them. It was painful to watch (but I'm glad I DVR'ed it).
Thoughts on the NFL that I think I think (apologies, Peter King)
1. I can never correctly gauge the Patriots. They always look terrible to me in games like the one they played in Jacksonville, but they still won. Not a single turnover against a pretty good Jacksonville defense, domination of the time of possession, over a 100 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns, and a 71% completion rate for Tom Brady. But the Patriots still only won by three and Jacksonville was marching for at least the game-tying field goal until Jarvis Green forced David Garrard to fumble in the waning minutes. I just can't tell how good this team is or how they'll play against good teams in the playoffs. To be fair I could never tell that about any team, but still. Sidenote on Scobee: If Josh Scobee, the Jacksonville kicker, had made a 50+ yard field goal to send the game into overtime I would have won my fantasy league but the Patriots may not have won the game to clinch their division. To make an offensive and barely apt analogy, it would have felt like Sophie's choice.
2. I hope with all of my heart that the Green Bay Packers make the playoffs. They were 4-8 three weeks ago and now they have a better shot of making it than Atlanta, Carolina, or St. Louis. Just one game against a Chicago team that has nothing to play for and some convoluted voodoo math re: the Giants is between Brett Favre and the playoffs. This may be crazy, but in the terrible NFC the Packers could win a few games in the postseason.
3. Jeff Garcia looked PHENOMENAL against the Cowboys and Tony Romo looked like a guy from Eastern Illinois who went undrafted.
4. Terrell Owens needs to realize that if his hands won't allow him to catch the football, the Cowboys will stop throwing to him.
5. ESPN needs to cool it with the video montages they play before the Monday Night Football games. Last night's game started off with a dramatization of a young child dreaming about the Jets scoring a touchdown on Christmas with the voiceover work obviously done by a 45 year old woman. Then Kiefer Sutherland showed up and rather intensely informed us that he was ready for some football and asked if we were as well. Finally they played their standard over-saturated introduction. It was like an 8 year old's art project after he/she had recently discovered glitter glue. And all of this pales in comparison to their alternate Hank Williams introduction with Silvo Dante on guitar and Angela Bassett playing Little Richard. And ESPN did so well with those brilliant "Is it Monday Yet?" television spots. At least they didn't commission Pink to sing a terrible song over some B-rate computer generated graphics. SO MANY LINKS!!!
6. Saw a mock MLB fantasy draft on Yahoo. When do pitchers and catchers report again?
Damn, you, Saj. I was going to use the pitchers and catchers line...only I was going to wait until the Pats were defeated in the playoffs! What the hell are you doing? The Pats are alive and well. There is no team the Patriots cannot defeat when they are healthy. Still, some roads to the Superbowl are easier than others. There are two teams the Patriots can face in the first round - The Denver Broncos and the New York Jets. Either game would take place in Foxboro. Which would you rather see?
Was that Romo line a thickly veiled plea to see Drew Bledsoe at the helm again? It's not as crazy as it sounds. The Cowboys are starting to put forth that lackadaisical effort that we were seeing earlier in the year. When they went to Romo, the excitable rookie who the team could rally around, all players, in every facet of the game, picked up their effort. Now, with the team once again needing an adrenelin push, couldn't they turn to the likeable, cagey veteran who the team could rally around? Remember when Brady got hurt in that Steelers AFC Championship game? Bill Simmons himself said that the Pats would not have won that Steeler game if Brady didn't get hurt. Bledsoe was the wildcard that kicked the team in gear.
Anyway, Parcells going back to Bledsoe is not as crazy as it sounds. What do you think?
Finally, a though on Jeff Garcia and those Philadelphia Eagles. I'd like to point out that they did something I'm almost positive no other team did this year. They just won three road games in three weeks. Not only that, they were all division opponents. They just defeated the Redskins, Giants, and Cowboys in front of each of their respective home fans. You just don't see that in the NFL. Is there any team in football that you would pick to defeat all three division rivals on the road in three straight weeks? I wouldn't. Not the Pats, not the Bears, not the Chargers. Hats off to the Eagles.
Which gets me to my larger point. For the Eagles-Cowboys matchup yesterday, I said the team that won that game plays the Bears in the NFC Championship. I firmly believed that then and I firmly believe that now. The Eagles are going to be the 3rd seed, win a home game, then go on the road to play the Saints, where they lost by three points when they weren't playing nearly as well and the Saints were playing much better. The Eagles are proving to be an excellent road team down the stretch. Everyone has stepped up in the absence of Owens and now McNabb. Watch out for Philadelphia!
On Eagles: If your home stadium was in Philadelphia, you'd be a better road team too.
On Bledsoe: Not Romo's fault that the Cowboys couldn't punch the ball in from the 1 yard line with three attempts. Not even an attempt at a QB sneak. And the whole time John Madden is playing the part of the old curmudgeon lamenting about how the young guys don't go with the play actionpass nowadays like they should.
On Broncos or Jets: I could see the Patriots beating either of these teams, but when it comes down to it I'd rather see the Broncos. Denver's defense isn't playing as well as it had been earlier in the season and they'll have a rookie QB on the road in the playoffs. While the Jets really, really suck, we can't forget about Mangini- he's a dour expression and mustard-stained sweatshirt away from morphing into Bill Belichick. Nobody wants to play Belicheck in the playoffs, especially Belichick.
I'm eating major crow on the Jets. I never thought they had a shot at the playoffs, and now they're a win over the hapless Raiders away from getting in. I think it ultimately comes down to this: The AFC East was never as bad as we thought it would be. The Dolphins and Bills were tough outs down the stretch. They'll both finish within a game or two of .500, and that's after having to play the Pats and the Jets twice each. Only two divisions per conference get two playoff teams, and the AFC East was one of them.
So not only are the Jets going to make it, but you could make the case they deserve to. They rolled with some punches, knocked off the Pats, played big down the stretch, and won their winnable games - ugly or nay. They're probably one and done in the playoffs, but they still overachieved because they have a coach and team that worked their ass off. Watch out for the AFC East next year. Three teams will be battling for the playoffs.
I think you're crazy to want to see the Broncos more than the Jets. Can you imagine if there was a team that the Patriots defeated in the playoffs last year AND in the regular season for years and years, and one their fans came up to you and said they wanted to see the Pats in the playoffs this year? You'd laugh in their face. That's us and the Broncos. The Broncos, for whatever reason, play the Pats very well every year. They always give Brady problems. Homefield, time of year, health of players, it doesn't matter. The Broncos play the Pats well every single year in every single scenario. So if they beat the Patriots in round 1, I don't want anyone surprised. They scare me. Bring on the Jets. Mangini may be the next Belichick, but Belichick is the current Belichick.
How about after the first round? Would you want to travel to San Diego, Baltimore, or Indianapolis?
Baltimore. I don't like our chances outscoring Indy and I don't like our chances in stopping Tomlinson. Baltimore may have the best defense in the AFC, but we can win a 13-10 game. I don't think we can win a 37-31 game.
Has anyone who doesn't get paid for it taken a look at the clinching scenarios? How about the wild playoff standings that show 20 of the 32 NFL teams still alive heading into the last week? It's crazier than a caffeinated Tom Cruise. One scenario paints this picture beautifully.
The Packers have five clinching scenarios, four of which are unique from each other. The most likely scenario alone is enough to make ones head look like that bald guy at the end of Raiders of the Lost Arc. Try to follow along as I try to articulate the language of nonsense into the more familiar language of gibberish.
The New York Giants and Green Bay Packers are currently the 6th and 7th teams in the NFC, respectively. Only the top 6 get in. So, one would assume if they both won, then the Giants would stay at 6 and get in, while the Packers would stay at 7 and be the first team out. However, this is not necessarily the case.
The reason the Giants get in over the Packers is because the Giants win the 3rd tiebreaker - record against common opponents, or teams that both New York and Green Bay have played. The Giants have one more win against common opponents than the Packers (Laughably, it turns out the Giants have one win against common opponents and the Packers have zero). The catch is that in Week 17, the Packers play one such common opponents - the Chicago Bears. The Giants play a non-common opponent in the Washington Redskins. Therefore, the Packers can make up that game in the last week. So, since we're assuming they both win and remain tied in their overall record, the Packers tie the Giants in the 3rd tiebreaker. That means it goes to the 4th tiebreaker - strength of victory. And, as Saj himself put it so eloquently last night: "What does that even mean?"
Neither of us are sure, but I'm fairly certain it's the equivilent of the BCS' margin of victory. And according to everything I can find, this tiebreaker is still up in the air. I suspect, considering the sizeable fanbases of the G-Men and Pack, that there will be a lot of number crunching by ESPN and the like to figure out what has to happen this weekend if both teams win.
I'll turn it over to you Saj. Thoughts on the NFL right now? How about our beloved Patriots and their possible playoff road? (We can finally talk about it now that the Pats clinched.)
Before I get into the NFL, I want to discuss something vastly more important: the dangers of fantasy football. If you have been reading this blog for the past months then you know that for a period of time Jon Kitna was the starting quarterback for both of my fantasy football teams. Jon Kitna. That should give you an idea of how my seasons went. But somehow I ended up, to Ian's chagrin, in the title game of our league this past weekend. And in true Saj form I overthought my starters and benched Trent Green, Chris Chambers, Reggie Bush and the Minnesota defense for Alex Smith, Braylon Edwards, Ronnie Brown and St. Louis, a -32 point swing in a week where I lost by THREE POINTS.
But the worst part about that loss was that I was completely engrossed in watching that trainwreck of a Monday night game between the Jets and the Dolphins. And THAT is the true danger of fantasy football. It will compel even the most honorable and stoic of men to degrade themselves by watching three hours of the most horrendous football games. That game was so bad Kornheiser and Theisman had to force themselves to trade barbs. It was like the sloppy play, Kornheiser's seasonal depression, and Theisman's probable drinking problem just took the fight out of them. It was painful to watch (but I'm glad I DVR'ed it).
Thoughts on the NFL that I think I think (apologies, Peter King)
1. I can never correctly gauge the Patriots. They always look terrible to me in games like the one they played in Jacksonville, but they still won. Not a single turnover against a pretty good Jacksonville defense, domination of the time of possession, over a 100 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns, and a 71% completion rate for Tom Brady. But the Patriots still only won by three and Jacksonville was marching for at least the game-tying field goal until Jarvis Green forced David Garrard to fumble in the waning minutes. I just can't tell how good this team is or how they'll play against good teams in the playoffs. To be fair I could never tell that about any team, but still. Sidenote on Scobee: If Josh Scobee, the Jacksonville kicker, had made a 50+ yard field goal to send the game into overtime I would have won my fantasy league but the Patriots may not have won the game to clinch their division. To make an offensive and barely apt analogy, it would have felt like Sophie's choice.
2. I hope with all of my heart that the Green Bay Packers make the playoffs. They were 4-8 three weeks ago and now they have a better shot of making it than Atlanta, Carolina, or St. Louis. Just one game against a Chicago team that has nothing to play for and some convoluted voodoo math re: the Giants is between Brett Favre and the playoffs. This may be crazy, but in the terrible NFC the Packers could win a few games in the postseason.
3. Jeff Garcia looked PHENOMENAL against the Cowboys and Tony Romo looked like a guy from Eastern Illinois who went undrafted.
4. Terrell Owens needs to realize that if his hands won't allow him to catch the football, the Cowboys will stop throwing to him.
5. ESPN needs to cool it with the video montages they play before the Monday Night Football games. Last night's game started off with a dramatization of a young child dreaming about the Jets scoring a touchdown on Christmas with the voiceover work obviously done by a 45 year old woman. Then Kiefer Sutherland showed up and rather intensely informed us that he was ready for some football and asked if we were as well. Finally they played their standard over-saturated introduction. It was like an 8 year old's art project after he/she had recently discovered glitter glue. And all of this pales in comparison to their alternate Hank Williams introduction with Silvo Dante on guitar and Angela Bassett playing Little Richard. And ESPN did so well with those brilliant "Is it Monday Yet?" television spots. At least they didn't commission Pink to sing a terrible song over some B-rate computer generated graphics. SO MANY LINKS!!!
6. Saw a mock MLB fantasy draft on Yahoo. When do pitchers and catchers report again?
Damn, you, Saj. I was going to use the pitchers and catchers line...only I was going to wait until the Pats were defeated in the playoffs! What the hell are you doing? The Pats are alive and well. There is no team the Patriots cannot defeat when they are healthy. Still, some roads to the Superbowl are easier than others. There are two teams the Patriots can face in the first round - The Denver Broncos and the New York Jets. Either game would take place in Foxboro. Which would you rather see?
Was that Romo line a thickly veiled plea to see Drew Bledsoe at the helm again? It's not as crazy as it sounds. The Cowboys are starting to put forth that lackadaisical effort that we were seeing earlier in the year. When they went to Romo, the excitable rookie who the team could rally around, all players, in every facet of the game, picked up their effort. Now, with the team once again needing an adrenelin push, couldn't they turn to the likeable, cagey veteran who the team could rally around? Remember when Brady got hurt in that Steelers AFC Championship game? Bill Simmons himself said that the Pats would not have won that Steeler game if Brady didn't get hurt. Bledsoe was the wildcard that kicked the team in gear.
Anyway, Parcells going back to Bledsoe is not as crazy as it sounds. What do you think?
Finally, a though on Jeff Garcia and those Philadelphia Eagles. I'd like to point out that they did something I'm almost positive no other team did this year. They just won three road games in three weeks. Not only that, they were all division opponents. They just defeated the Redskins, Giants, and Cowboys in front of each of their respective home fans. You just don't see that in the NFL. Is there any team in football that you would pick to defeat all three division rivals on the road in three straight weeks? I wouldn't. Not the Pats, not the Bears, not the Chargers. Hats off to the Eagles.
Which gets me to my larger point. For the Eagles-Cowboys matchup yesterday, I said the team that won that game plays the Bears in the NFC Championship. I firmly believed that then and I firmly believe that now. The Eagles are going to be the 3rd seed, win a home game, then go on the road to play the Saints, where they lost by three points when they weren't playing nearly as well and the Saints were playing much better. The Eagles are proving to be an excellent road team down the stretch. Everyone has stepped up in the absence of Owens and now McNabb. Watch out for Philadelphia!
On Eagles: If your home stadium was in Philadelphia, you'd be a better road team too.
On Bledsoe: Not Romo's fault that the Cowboys couldn't punch the ball in from the 1 yard line with three attempts. Not even an attempt at a QB sneak. And the whole time John Madden is playing the part of the old curmudgeon lamenting about how the young guys don't go with the play actionpass nowadays like they should.
On Broncos or Jets: I could see the Patriots beating either of these teams, but when it comes down to it I'd rather see the Broncos. Denver's defense isn't playing as well as it had been earlier in the season and they'll have a rookie QB on the road in the playoffs. While the Jets really, really suck, we can't forget about Mangini- he's a dour expression and mustard-stained sweatshirt away from morphing into Bill Belichick. Nobody wants to play Belicheck in the playoffs, especially Belichick.
I'm eating major crow on the Jets. I never thought they had a shot at the playoffs, and now they're a win over the hapless Raiders away from getting in. I think it ultimately comes down to this: The AFC East was never as bad as we thought it would be. The Dolphins and Bills were tough outs down the stretch. They'll both finish within a game or two of .500, and that's after having to play the Pats and the Jets twice each. Only two divisions per conference get two playoff teams, and the AFC East was one of them.
So not only are the Jets going to make it, but you could make the case they deserve to. They rolled with some punches, knocked off the Pats, played big down the stretch, and won their winnable games - ugly or nay. They're probably one and done in the playoffs, but they still overachieved because they have a coach and team that worked their ass off. Watch out for the AFC East next year. Three teams will be battling for the playoffs.
I think you're crazy to want to see the Broncos more than the Jets. Can you imagine if there was a team that the Patriots defeated in the playoffs last year AND in the regular season for years and years, and one their fans came up to you and said they wanted to see the Pats in the playoffs this year? You'd laugh in their face. That's us and the Broncos. The Broncos, for whatever reason, play the Pats very well every year. They always give Brady problems. Homefield, time of year, health of players, it doesn't matter. The Broncos play the Pats well every single year in every single scenario. So if they beat the Patriots in round 1, I don't want anyone surprised. They scare me. Bring on the Jets. Mangini may be the next Belichick, but Belichick is the current Belichick.
How about after the first round? Would you want to travel to San Diego, Baltimore, or Indianapolis?
Baltimore. I don't like our chances outscoring Indy and I don't like our chances in stopping Tomlinson. Baltimore may have the best defense in the AFC, but we can win a 13-10 game. I don't think we can win a 37-31 game.
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