MLB: Second Half Predictions

Ian, before we get to our hare-brained second half predictions, let's assess last night's All Star game- particularly the end. Let's pretend that you're Tony La Russa. Let's say yesterday morning you woke up in your hotel (rising from the hyperbolic chamber in which you sleep) ordered a coffee and a croissant from room service, turned the television to the weather channel and stepped out on your balcony to breath in the fresh San Franciscan air. And then you said to yourself, "Tony, you handsome sexagenarian, if by some stroke of serendipity your National League squad finds itself down by one run with the bases loaded, two outs in the ninth inning, and career league-average hitter Aaron Rowand at the plate, by gum, you will let that Rowand boy hit. Sure you could pinch hit the best righthanded hitter in the game, Albert Pujols, and, yes, Pujols is to Rowand as Optimus Prime is to a Chevy Silverado, but why give the National League the best chance to win the game when you can lose the game AND piss off your best player at the same time?" I'm assuming that question is no longer rhetorical because that's exactly what Tony La Russa did. Why, Tony? Why?


I was watching the game with buddies Greg and Pete, and the lot of us were befuddled. We assumed that Pujols was injured and LaRussa didn't want to play his own player in an quasi-exhibition game. However, from what I've read after the game, Pujols was ready to go. Therefore, LaRussa not only robbed the NL from breaking a 9-now-10-year losing streak, not only did he rob the NL from a chance at homefield advantage in the World Series, but he also robbed us, Major League Baseball fans, from perhaps the most exciting All-Star at bat of this generation! And for that, he should not be forgiven.

If you want the answer as to why he did this, I'm sure you already read LaRussa's cockamamie excuse as to Pujols' versatility in extra innings... but since when has a manager managed for extra innings when he was DOWN ONE RUN in the ninth. A tie game is one thing, but down a run in the ninth or the bottom of an extra inning? Does Terry Francona let David Ortiz run if they're down one in the 10th? Not a chance. He gets a pinch runner. You need that run to win. I mean, managers often pinch run their second catcher in an extra innings without another catcher on the roster because they need that run to keep playing. You figure out who's playing where AFTER you extend the game.

And if the answer to all these criticisms are, "It's just an exhibition," than that is precisely the reason as to why the move should have been made. It would have been fun to see a couple guys out of position in an All-Star Game. And if the answer to that is, "The game counts, no fooling around," than Albert Pujols must see an at bat there. End of story.

I rest my case.

Saj, get us started on second half predictions.


You know, I was all set to do this: internet research, lots of reading and statistics, but I really don't want to. In lieu of any of that, here are some arbitrary statements about the next three months of baseball.

1. The Philadelphia Phillies will make the playoffs. Chase Utley will hit 45 more homeruns, the last 15 or so he'll will out of the park using only his mind and his crystal clear blue eyes. Girls you can have Cole Hamels and Grady Sizemore, the Chaser is all mine. Oh, and Brett Myers will remember that he's f****** Brett Myers. Not the beating his wife part but the good at pitching part.

2. Everyone will jump off the "Detroit Tigers are the best team in baseball" bandwagon when Curtis Granderson (of blogging fame) breaks his wrist in August and the damn thing crashes into a telephone pole. Lucky for them, the Los Angeles Angels bandwagon will pick them up when the Angels make an ill-advised trade for a hitter they don't need. None of this will prevent both these teams from being obliterated in the postseason by Boston. Angels Note: Reggie Willits will end the season hitting below .280.

3. Unless it has already happened, Ichiro will not sign an extension with Seattle. Please be aware that the rules of time do not apply to this statement. So, technically, I can't be wrong.

4. Barry Bonds will hit homeruns 755 and 756 in the same day and as he crosses homeplate the second time he will remove a mask to reveal that he is actually Mark McGwire and the real Barry Bonds has been locked in a basement since 1999. McGwire will go on to tell the media that he got the idea from the 1986 comedy "Soul Man" where a white student masquerades as an African American so that he may receive a scholarship to Harvard. McGwire will also say that he "would have gotten away with it if it weren't for those meddling kids and their damn dog."

5. The Cleveland Indians will issue an "Indian of the month" 2008 calendar as a giveaway on the last day of the season. While Grady Sizemore will be Mr. April and Travis Hafner will be Mr. May, C.C. Sabathia will be Mr. August, Mr. September, and Mr. October. The joke here is that C.C. Sabathia is fat.

6. The San Diego Padres will win the NL Pennant by sweeping the Phillies prompting Fox to go into panic mode when the Mariners take a 3-1 lead on the Red Sox in the ALCS. Before Game 5, a ski-mask clad Chris Myers will take a lead pipe to Ichiro's knee destroying Seattle's morale and saving postseason ratings from West Coast irrelevance. Ichiro will silently lament not signing that ridiculous contract the Mariners offered him back in July but then he will smile wryly because he appreciates the irony. Unless, of course, it has already happened.

Ian?


How in Mike Greenwell's name am I supposed to counter those rock solid, take-it-to-the- bank predictions? I mean, the don't even have to play the rest of the regular season anymore. Saj has figured it out for us.

Anyway, instead of building to my World Series prediction, I will start there (kind of) and work my way back. I'll start with this:

The two most important players in determining the World Series participants are the same two most important players of the 2004 season and playoffs - Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling. Simply put, those two players determine how far their respective teams advance in the playoffs.

In the case of Pedro and the New York Mets, if he looks as good as he and everyone else who has seen him says he is, the Mets will be playing in the 2007 World Series. If he's not, and especially if the Metropolitans cannot pick up another starter better than Tom Glavine, than it's the San Diego Padres in the Series. The Mets lineup is the best in the National League. All they need is two quality starters which they currently don't have. It's as simple as that.

Verdict for NL Champion
A good or better Pedro = New York
An average or worse Pedro = San Diego
Prediction - San Diego Padres, behind Jake Peavy's 2 wins and a win from David Wells and someone else, and thanks to lackluster performances from the Mets pitching staff, are in the World Series.

In the case of Schilling and the Boston Red Sox, if Schilling returns to at least 80% of the typical playoff Curt Schilling, the Red Sox are going to win the World Series. If not, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka are not enough to topple the Detroit Tigers.

Verdict for AL Champion
A good or better Schilling = Boston
An average or worse Schilling = Detroit
Prediction - Schilling, at forty years of age and decidedly out of shape, does not bounce back like he once could. Detroit matches up very well with the BoSox and takes the series in a classic seven games.

Rounding out the playoffs - Milwaukee falls apart, and a sizzling second half from Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and the Chicago Cubs' lineup gives the Cubs the NL Central. The Brew Crew and the Dodgers battle it out for the wild card, but the Dodgers' experience is victorious and earn the honor of once again traveling to New York in the first round... where they will again lose.

Over in the AL, the Yankees do make an August and September push, taking advantage of many games with Tampa, Baltimore, and Toronto. However, this postseason will give way to many "Out like the Yankees in October" jokes, as the Cleveland Indians return to the playoffs as the AL wildcard. The Tigers start their World Series run with a drubbing over the AL West Champion Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

That's it. Predictions locked in. I'll be sure to post this link again in October.

Reader email - July 3

Reader Keith from Connecticut asks:

You guys don't think Dan Haren should be starting for the A.L.? Before Sunday, 1.91 ERA in the ever so powerful American League.

Great point, Keith. I like Danny Haren, and for more reasons than simply his resemblence to me. His record (10-2) is comparable to Beckett's (11-2), and his ERA is just over a run lower. All that being said, I feel it's been Beckett's start to lose ever since he was 9-0 and 11-1. Those are simply eye-popping records. Haren was 0-2 and has played catch up ever since. Ten straights wins is great for any resume, but Beckett was in the driver's seat and hasn't done anything to lose the honor. And let's not forget Haren's 1.58 ERA has fallen to 2.20 in the last four starts. His lights out streak is definitely over.

And honestly, I don't believe everything I'm saying right now, but there is one more point to be made. The 2003 World Series MVP is the bigger name and this is the All-Star Game. I expect Beckett to get the nod. I also don't think it's out of the question that those two gentlemen's start this week may determine who's on the mound in the first inning. One of them gets shelled and one of them pitches well... that could decide it.

You know what's funny about this debate? There's a real possibility Leyland will choose his own player - Justin "no-no" Verlander.

What do you think, Saj?


Excellent question, Keith, excellent question. Ignoring my fanboy-ism (which is the only reason I chose Beckett anyway) and Ian's crafty exercise in rationalization there is no reason why Dan Haren should not start the All-Star Game. Bay area starter, having a fantastic season, Ian thinks he looks like him. No reason, except for C.C. Sabathia. While Haren leads the AL in ERA, ERA+, WHIP, and OPS against, Sabathia holds the edge in wins, innings pitched, K's, K/BB, and donuts consumed in a single sitting. I'm not saying that makes him more deserving, but 116 strike outs and only 17 walks is pretty ridiculous. As is the two dozen Krispy Kremes he demolished in twelve minutes.

Of course this is all subject to the caprice of Jim Leyland. He could go with his boy (Verlander), his old boy (Beckett), or the best pitcher on the planet (Johan Santana) in lieu of either Haren or Sabathia. I think Leyland goes with Haren. And I think Haren ends the season with an ERA above 3.50. And I think Santana drops his ERA another half run and wins the Cy Young Award. And I think I'll have ice cream for lunch today. Those are my thoughts.

Thanks for the emails, readers.

All Star Ruminations

Well, Saj and I decided to take the month of June off to recharge the old batteries. Saj will probably try to convince you that he left me in the States to go oil up Swedish supermodels, but that would be a lie. They were Norwegian and I was there, too.

We return now on the first Monday of July with a promise. Throughout the summer, we will have two posts a week for you. Please check back regularly. It'll be mostly baseball for a while, with tennis, golf, and offseason NBA and NFL mixed in. Around September, things will heat up with the NFL kicking off and baseball getting into its stretch run, with our beloved BoSox making a run at another World Series.

Later this week, Saj and I will give our thoughts on recent NBA developments around the league. Today, however, we will concentrate on yesterday's announced MLB All-Star rosters.

I'll start with what I think was the biggest snub of the year, an interesting choice for me as many are saying Kevin Youkilis, my favorite player in the league, was the biggest AL snub. However, easily the biggest snub of the year is one of my least favorite players in the league: Gary Sheffield.

Check it: Gary Sheffield is 2nd in in the American League in runs, 3rd in homeruns, 10th in RBI but has more stolen bases than anyone with more RBI than him, he's 4th in walks, and 7th in OPS. Most importantly, he's carried my fantasy team while the likes of David Wright, Carlos Beltran, and Miguel Tejada were underperforming. That, Saj, is an All-Star. What do you think? Who's the biggest snub?


I will agree that Gary Sheffield is having a very good season, his LL Cool J/pedophile moustache notwithstanding. But while deserving, it's hard to find a place for him. For one, the AL already holds five reserve outfielders on it's roster. Crawford and Rios are picks of necessity (baseball's inane "every team" rule) and Hunter and Sizemore legitimately deserve their selections. The only spot I could see being vacated for the good Mr. Sheffield would be Ramirez's. And, yes, Sheffield is having a better season that Manny, but the All-Star Game is as much a popularity contest as it is a celebration of performance. And Manny, I'm willing to wager, is somewhere near infinitely more popular than Gary Sheffield. Why? Because Sheffield is the kind of guy who would steal walkers from old people and punch them in the face.

I'd say the biggest collective snub of this year's All Star rosters belongs to the alienated trio of the NL shortstop quintet that is taking the league by storm this season. While Jose Reyes and J.J. Hardy are definitely deserving, Hanley Ramirez (on pace for 20 HR, 50 SB and 130 R), Edgar Renteria (hitting .324, OPS .879), and Jimmy Rollins (on pace for 30 HR, 30 SB, 100 RBI, 130 R!) are having great seasons as well. In fact, I would like to see Orlando Hudson removed from the roster in favor of one of these guys. No offense, Orlando.


Not a bad observation. The talented NL shortstops brings me back to the turn of the millenium when the American League had four dynamo short stops (Arod, Nomar, Jeets, Tejada) battling for the crown of best shortstop in the game. Now two of them play other positions and one was probably on roids. Still, even though Jeter seemingly survived the battle, Arod is still the best shortstop ever... he just plays third base.

Let's project some lineups, shall we? Here's what I got for the American League:

1. Ichiro Suzuki CF
2. Derek Jeter SS
3. Alex Rodriguez 3B
4. David Ortiz 1B
5. Vlad Guerrero RF
6. Magglio Ordonez LF
7. Ivan Rodriguez C
8. Placido Polanco 2B
9. Josh Beckett P

Saj?


I agree for the most part. The only thing I'd add is that maybe Leyland throws his guy Magglio a bone at 3 and moves the others down. And flip flop Polanco and Pudge. Also, I like Beckett starting.

National League:

1. Jose Reyes SS
2. Chase Utley 2B
3. Carlos Beltran CF
4. Barry Bonds LF
5. Ken Griffey Jr. RF
6. Prince Fielder 1B
7. David Wright 3B
8. Russell Martin C
9. Jake Peavy P

I barely agree with this, but I think La Russa likes Beltran at three. And as per convention Griffey gets the nod at 5 over young guy Fielder, the catcher hits before the pitcher, and there's a bigheaded asshole in the clean up spot.


Bonds in his home park is up in the first inning, so he hits 3rd, thus defying the general rule of the big-head hitting fourth (see Ortiz). So I swap your three and four, and the rest are the same.

1. Reyes SS
2. Utley 2B
3. Bonds LF
4. Beltran CF
5. Griffey RF
6. Fielder 1B
7. Wright 3B
8. Martin C
9. Peavy P

It appears our lineups are quite similar. At least that makes it easy to see who's more right, which is usually me. We'll keep an eye on the 3-4 in the NL and where Magglio hits in the AL.

NBA Draft fallout later in the week.


Conceding your Bonds point. It makes too much sense. But in that case I see Griffey hitting clean up.