Quick Marlins thought: The Florida Marlins payroll is smaller than each of the salaries of several Yankees players.
THE ATLANTA BRAVES
Pitching: I love the Braves pitching. The Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz combo will be tough to beat, especially with Denny Neagle, Steve Avery, and Charlie Liebrandt to round out the rotation. Can Mark Wholers stay healthy in the pen? Or will Alejandro Pena have to step into the closers role? Well, whoever's on the mound, I'm sure Leo Mazzone will be able to get the very best out of them.
Wait, wait. This isn't the 90's? Oh.
The Braves pitching is not good.
Hitting: Out on a limb, but I'm confident: Andruw Jones is going to be a first ballot hall of famer. Chipper Jones won't be. Who saw that coming five years ago? The rest of this squad, aside from Smoltz, Wickman, and Renteria, is VERY young. If Atlanta starts getting some money again, the Braves and Mets can own two playoff spots through the end of the decade. While the Mets should get back this year, the Braves are still a year away.
Miscellaneous: I used to be a full-fledged Braves fan until about the 99 season, when I slowly started moving towards the Sox. By 2001, I was fully in the Sox camp, cheering hard for them in the interleague games against the Braves, and being truly bummed out when the Sox missed the playoffs and not caring that the Braves were in them. By 2003, the Braves were just another team to me, with the Cubs surpassing them as my favorite NL team. The point? I have none.
Braves-related Ridiculous Proposition Bet: Over/Under on amount of teams that inquire about uber-valuable Free-Agent to be Andruw Jones at the trade deadline: 12.5
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Friday, March 16, 2007
Thursday, March 15, 2007
NCAA: Beware the Ides of March Madness
A break from our poorly researched MLB preview to address something more pressing. Before the shroud of unproductivity that accompanies the NCAA tournament blankets all of America's schools and offices, we felt that we should address the Madness that is March.
1. Courtesy of my friend Dan, go here to watch all the games on your computer. And while you're at it just give your two weeks notice before your boss has the opportunity to fire you. That way you can say you left because of creative differences and not because you spent two hours screaming in your cubicle for Creighton to "hit a f****** shot." At least leave with some dignity.
2. I have two brackets in my office pool ($10 each, play money not real money) and they could not be more different. It's like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Bracket. I realize that this is a smart move in terms of hedging my bets, but now I'm conflicted. Until I see how each bracket is going to unfold who do I root for in the first rounds? UVA or Albany? Butler or ODU? Florida or Jackson State? Okay the last one was a joke.
3. Speaking of Florida, if sports in HD is the argument for high definition broadcasts then Joakim Noah is the very persuasive counter-argument.
4. Do teams like Winthrop, Creighton, or Xavier even play any regular season basketball games? You never hear anything about them until mid-March and suddenly they're populating the 9-12 seeds of the tourament. I'm convinced they play in one team conferences where they have intra-squad scrimmages all year and then announce themselves champions.
5. Who else can't wait to see Tyler "Psycho T" Hansbrough flip out with the mask on like a dog with one of those cones around its head? Yet another reason why you shouldn't put animals in people's clothes.
6. Greg Oden is going to issue a huge reality check and reassert his status as the far and away number one pick in this year's NBA draft. With all the pre-college hype followed by the broken wrist and the unassuming performance this year, Oden's Q rating has been surpassed by Kevin Durant and his trascendent season for Texas. Durant is very good, but Oden is Oden and has played all year relying on his non-dominant hand. Nobody in the college game can stop him near the basket, as simple as that. And, yes, I did pick Acie Law IV and Texas A&M in beat them in the Dr. Jekyll bracket.
Ian, additions?
Yeah, I got additions.
1. Duke sucks. I knew they sucked heading in and thought they'd be "upset" in round 1. I picked them to go to the sweet sixteen, however, in order to paint myself into a win-win scenario. Either they'd be bounced in the first two rounds making me happy, or they'd make the third round and make me right. Well, I'm happy, but I can't help but be remiss about the opportunity I had to be happy and right.
2. Day 1 had me going 12 for 16. I consider this an underperformance, but it's irrelevant, as the first round hardly matter in any pools. It's all about keeping the subsequent rounds intact as long as possible. I had GW and Duke in the Sweet Sixteen, so I only have fourteen SS teams left. My goal is to have 10 alive after the first round, and eight alive heading into the actual Sweet Sixteen. I also am confident of all my Elite 8 picks. If I get 6 or 7 of them, that should put me in a comfortable spot in my "friendly contest."
3. Who are these Elite 8 teams? Florida, Oregon, Kansas, UCLA, Texas, Georgetown, Ohio State, and Louisville. Three one's, two two's, a three, a four, and a six.
4. Duke lost in the first round to Virginia Commonwealth.
5. I'm hoping both Oden and Durant have great tournaments, as any tumbling of stock might convince them to get in another year at the college level. As this is the year my Boston Celtics are bottoming out, I want badly both of them in the draft.
6. Picks for today, the 16th of March: #13 Albany, #10 Georgie Tech, #2 Memphis, #11 Winthrop, #12 Long Beach State, #2 Wisconsin, #10 Creighton, #3 Oregon, #1 Kansas, #12 Illinois, #8 Arizona, #4 Texas, #9 Villanova, #13 Holy Cross, #1 Florida, #12 Arkansas
7. Haha, Duke.
8. I am a school teacher and I have a snowday today. Now I can watch all these games scheduled between 12 and 1. Talk about a gift from the gods.
1. Courtesy of my friend Dan, go here to watch all the games on your computer. And while you're at it just give your two weeks notice before your boss has the opportunity to fire you. That way you can say you left because of creative differences and not because you spent two hours screaming in your cubicle for Creighton to "hit a f****** shot." At least leave with some dignity.
2. I have two brackets in my office pool ($10 each, play money not real money) and they could not be more different. It's like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Bracket. I realize that this is a smart move in terms of hedging my bets, but now I'm conflicted. Until I see how each bracket is going to unfold who do I root for in the first rounds? UVA or Albany? Butler or ODU? Florida or Jackson State? Okay the last one was a joke.
3. Speaking of Florida, if sports in HD is the argument for high definition broadcasts then Joakim Noah is the very persuasive counter-argument.
4. Do teams like Winthrop, Creighton, or Xavier even play any regular season basketball games? You never hear anything about them until mid-March and suddenly they're populating the 9-12 seeds of the tourament. I'm convinced they play in one team conferences where they have intra-squad scrimmages all year and then announce themselves champions.
5. Who else can't wait to see Tyler "Psycho T" Hansbrough flip out with the mask on like a dog with one of those cones around its head? Yet another reason why you shouldn't put animals in people's clothes.
6. Greg Oden is going to issue a huge reality check and reassert his status as the far and away number one pick in this year's NBA draft. With all the pre-college hype followed by the broken wrist and the unassuming performance this year, Oden's Q rating has been surpassed by Kevin Durant and his trascendent season for Texas. Durant is very good, but Oden is Oden and has played all year relying on his non-dominant hand. Nobody in the college game can stop him near the basket, as simple as that. And, yes, I did pick Acie Law IV and Texas A&M in beat them in the Dr. Jekyll bracket.
Ian, additions?
Yeah, I got additions.
1. Duke sucks. I knew they sucked heading in and thought they'd be "upset" in round 1. I picked them to go to the sweet sixteen, however, in order to paint myself into a win-win scenario. Either they'd be bounced in the first two rounds making me happy, or they'd make the third round and make me right. Well, I'm happy, but I can't help but be remiss about the opportunity I had to be happy and right.
2. Day 1 had me going 12 for 16. I consider this an underperformance, but it's irrelevant, as the first round hardly matter in any pools. It's all about keeping the subsequent rounds intact as long as possible. I had GW and Duke in the Sweet Sixteen, so I only have fourteen SS teams left. My goal is to have 10 alive after the first round, and eight alive heading into the actual Sweet Sixteen. I also am confident of all my Elite 8 picks. If I get 6 or 7 of them, that should put me in a comfortable spot in my "friendly contest."
3. Who are these Elite 8 teams? Florida, Oregon, Kansas, UCLA, Texas, Georgetown, Ohio State, and Louisville. Three one's, two two's, a three, a four, and a six.
4. Duke lost in the first round to Virginia Commonwealth.
5. I'm hoping both Oden and Durant have great tournaments, as any tumbling of stock might convince them to get in another year at the college level. As this is the year my Boston Celtics are bottoming out, I want badly both of them in the draft.
6. Picks for today, the 16th of March: #13 Albany, #10 Georgie Tech, #2 Memphis, #11 Winthrop, #12 Long Beach State, #2 Wisconsin, #10 Creighton, #3 Oregon, #1 Kansas, #12 Illinois, #8 Arizona, #4 Texas, #9 Villanova, #13 Holy Cross, #1 Florida, #12 Arkansas
7. Haha, Duke.
8. I am a school teacher and I have a snowday today. Now I can watch all these games scheduled between 12 and 1. Talk about a gift from the gods.
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
The Greatest Baseball Preview in America: Florida Marlins
Too busy at work to blog in complete sentences.
THE FLORIDA MARLINS
Pitching: Dontrelle Willis: good. Scott Olsen: potential (good K/9). Anibal Sanchez: blah, success in limited 2006 action (SEE: no-hitter), won't keep it up. Josh Johnson: last year's team ERA leader but hurt. The rest: YUCK. Watch out for Yusmeiro Petit, though.
Hitting: Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez: great. Jeremy Hermida: potentially great. Ignore what you hear about Josh Willingham, Dan Uggla, and Mike Jacobs. They're decent but not very good. Noteworthy: Aaron Boone could play all four infield positions for them during the season. Aaron f****** Boone.
Miscellaneous: I'm okay with the Red Sox trading Anibal Sanchez to Florida in the Josh Beckett deal, but Hanley Ramirez will haunt them for the rest of his career. Solace: I don't think the deal would have happened if Hanley wasn't included and I'm optimistic about Beckett this year. But there still must have been some way to pull off the deal without trading him. And speaking of the Marlins trading pitchers or letting them walk at their prime, let's review who they've had and gotten rid of in the last few years: A.J. Burnett, Josh Beckett, and Brad Penny. Take a look at what those three have been up to since they left Florida. The Marlins aren't fools. Just a note to whichever team gets roped into trading for Dontrelle Willis.
Marlins-related Ridiculous Proposition Bet: The line for when the Marlins' Mermaids (baseball's first and only cheerleading corps) officially go topless: May 12th.
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THE FLORIDA MARLINS
Pitching: Dontrelle Willis: good. Scott Olsen: potential (good K/9). Anibal Sanchez: blah, success in limited 2006 action (SEE: no-hitter), won't keep it up. Josh Johnson: last year's team ERA leader but hurt. The rest: YUCK. Watch out for Yusmeiro Petit, though.
Hitting: Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez: great. Jeremy Hermida: potentially great. Ignore what you hear about Josh Willingham, Dan Uggla, and Mike Jacobs. They're decent but not very good. Noteworthy: Aaron Boone could play all four infield positions for them during the season. Aaron f****** Boone.
Miscellaneous: I'm okay with the Red Sox trading Anibal Sanchez to Florida in the Josh Beckett deal, but Hanley Ramirez will haunt them for the rest of his career. Solace: I don't think the deal would have happened if Hanley wasn't included and I'm optimistic about Beckett this year. But there still must have been some way to pull off the deal without trading him. And speaking of the Marlins trading pitchers or letting them walk at their prime, let's review who they've had and gotten rid of in the last few years: A.J. Burnett, Josh Beckett, and Brad Penny. Take a look at what those three have been up to since they left Florida. The Marlins aren't fools. Just a note to whichever team gets roped into trading for Dontrelle Willis.
Marlins-related Ridiculous Proposition Bet: The line for when the Marlins' Mermaids (baseball's first and only cheerleading corps) officially go topless: May 12th.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2007
The Greatest Baseball Preview in America: Washington Nationals
Cardinals thoughts: How in the HELL did they win the World Series last year?
WASHINTON NATIONALS
Pitching: Well, we've gone from the defending World Series champs to the team which I predict will have the worst record in baseball. Saj and I agreed that previews of some teams, due to their anemic chances in the upcoming season, will not be as lengthy as others. This is one such time.
Their pitching stinks. John Patterson and Chad Cordero will both be wearing different uniforms by August.
Hitting: Their hitting stinks. Ryan Zimmerman is a nice young ballplayer, though. Then again, so was I.
Miscellaneous: This franchise leading the league in wins in the strike-shortened 1994 season has to be one of the more overlooked baseball achievements of the last 20 years.
Nationals-related Ridiculous Proposition Bet: President Bush must be throwing out the first pitch, right? You know, there's a joke waiting to be made comparing the ineffectiveness of the National front office to the similarly ineffective Bush Administration, but I'm just not seeing it.
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NL Central
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WASHINTON NATIONALS
Pitching: Well, we've gone from the defending World Series champs to the team which I predict will have the worst record in baseball. Saj and I agreed that previews of some teams, due to their anemic chances in the upcoming season, will not be as lengthy as others. This is one such time.
Their pitching stinks. John Patterson and Chad Cordero will both be wearing different uniforms by August.
Hitting: Their hitting stinks. Ryan Zimmerman is a nice young ballplayer, though. Then again, so was I.
Miscellaneous: This franchise leading the league in wins in the strike-shortened 1994 season has to be one of the more overlooked baseball achievements of the last 20 years.
Nationals-related Ridiculous Proposition Bet: President Bush must be throwing out the first pitch, right? You know, there's a joke waiting to be made comparing the ineffectiveness of the National front office to the similarly ineffective Bush Administration, but I'm just not seeing it.
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NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals
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Monday, March 12, 2007
The Greatest Baseball Preview in America: St. Louis Cardinals
I disagree with you regarding Mark Loretta.
THE ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Pitching: Before I get all negative about the Cardinals pitching staff I want to make everyone aware of the following: Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, Mark Mulder, Anthony Reyes, Jeff Weaver, and Sidney Ponson all started more than ten games for the Cardinals last year. Suppan was the only non-Carpenter one of those guys who was even barely better than league average. The other five guys were absolutely terrible in the regular season. The reason I bring this up? Because it proves that a Chris Carpenter and a bunch of schmucks who are playing for contracts can turn in virtuoso Octobers and win the World Series. This is like a beacon of hope for the "as bad or worse" 2007 Cardinals rotation. Unfortunately life doesn't work out that way. Sure you may not crash your car the first time you drive home from the bar with a BAC two times the legal limit, blindfolded, and steering with your teeth but the next time you do it you'll probably miss the playoffs (or you'll just get lazy with your metaphor.) Bottom Line: After Carpenter there is a lot of uncertainty. The suddenly-thirty Kip Wells is being billed as a number two, Adam Wainwright is making the always fun transition from closer to starter, and Mark Mulder is a 29-year-old coming off shoulder surgery and a truncated season where he got knocked around more than an Alabama hooker. The bullpen sees the return of Jason Isringhausen from hip surgery but the loss of the surprisingly effective Adam Wainwright to the rotation. NOTE ON ISRINGHAUSEN: In fantasy baseball, I traded Luis Gonzalez for Isringhausen the year Gonzalez hit 57 homeruns. Something I'm not proud to admit.
Hitting: Aside from the hitting vacuum that will be the middle of their infield and their catcher (David Eckstein, Adam Kennedy, Yadier Molina) the Cardinals are doing okay in the hitting department. Scott Rolen's shoulder is another year removed from surgery and while he may never repeat his 2004 season, he's a good bet to improve on his numbers from last year. Chris Duncan, who will start in left field, showed 30-40 homerun power in his 90 or so games last year. The negatives: Jim Edmonds will be 37 this year AND he may not even be ready for Opening Day and Juan Encarnacion is somehow still playing professional baseball. FANTASY SLEEPER ALERT: The guy heading into camp at the top of the list for the job at first base is Albert Pujols. Right now the job is Pujols' to lose and I really have to say that I'm impressed by the confidence LaRussa is showing in him. Watch out for him on draft day. You can thank me when you've got your league rapped up by mid-August.
Miscellaneous: Just to piss off roommate and FJFP writer Rob, here's a Molina-related excerpt from an NLCS Game 7 post a few months ago:
'The Mets got Molina-ed. They got Molina-ed good. Yadier "I'm not as fat as my brothers" Molina hit a two-run game winning homer in the top of the ninth. To get to the bottom of the complete improbability of this ever happening I'm going to throw out some numbers: .274, 417, 6, 87, 5. Care to guess what these numbers represent? No? Okay, I'll tell you.
The first number is Yadier Molina's ON BASE PERCENTAGE. Yes, you read that correctly. ON BASE PERCENTAGE. His OBP was almost sixty points lower than Albert Pujols' batting average.
The second is the number of at bats he had this year, fairly standard for a catcher, and the third is the number of homeruns he hit. Six homeruns in 417 at bats. That's about one every seventy at bats. If you assume he gets an average of four at bats a game, that's a homerun for every seventeen regular season games. And this was the youngest Molina's second homerun of a postseason in which he was playing his eleventh game.
Finally, the fourth and fifth numbers relate to the svelte Mr. Aaron Heilman, the man who most directly got Molina-ed. Eighty seven is the number of innings Heilman pitched this season (with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP) and five is the number of homeruns he has surrendered. That's a homerun every 17 innings or so against, on average, hitters who are a good deal better than Yadier Molina. And he was pitching in Shea Stadium which was, despite the very competent Mets offense, the fifth worst park for the long ball this year. And the Mets were 7th in MLB in homeruns with 96 of their 200 homers being hit at home. Assuming the statistics for homeruns per game held from September 6th through the end of the season, visiting teams hit only 60 homeruns at Shea Stadium. What in the name of Aaron f****** Boone happened last night??'
Addendum: Yadier Molina's OPS+ last year was 54. He was half as good as the average baseball player in 2006.
Cardinals-related Ridiculous Proposition Bet: Over/under on how many times my friend Pax will use the phrase "You are So Taguchi and you don't even know it" during a Dodgers-Cardinals game this year: 1,263.
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NL Central
Houston Astros
Cincinnati Reds
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NL West
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Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
THE ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Pitching: Before I get all negative about the Cardinals pitching staff I want to make everyone aware of the following: Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, Mark Mulder, Anthony Reyes, Jeff Weaver, and Sidney Ponson all started more than ten games for the Cardinals last year. Suppan was the only non-Carpenter one of those guys who was even barely better than league average. The other five guys were absolutely terrible in the regular season. The reason I bring this up? Because it proves that a Chris Carpenter and a bunch of schmucks who are playing for contracts can turn in virtuoso Octobers and win the World Series. This is like a beacon of hope for the "as bad or worse" 2007 Cardinals rotation. Unfortunately life doesn't work out that way. Sure you may not crash your car the first time you drive home from the bar with a BAC two times the legal limit, blindfolded, and steering with your teeth but the next time you do it you'll probably miss the playoffs (or you'll just get lazy with your metaphor.) Bottom Line: After Carpenter there is a lot of uncertainty. The suddenly-thirty Kip Wells is being billed as a number two, Adam Wainwright is making the always fun transition from closer to starter, and Mark Mulder is a 29-year-old coming off shoulder surgery and a truncated season where he got knocked around more than an Alabama hooker. The bullpen sees the return of Jason Isringhausen from hip surgery but the loss of the surprisingly effective Adam Wainwright to the rotation. NOTE ON ISRINGHAUSEN: In fantasy baseball, I traded Luis Gonzalez for Isringhausen the year Gonzalez hit 57 homeruns. Something I'm not proud to admit.
Hitting: Aside from the hitting vacuum that will be the middle of their infield and their catcher (David Eckstein, Adam Kennedy, Yadier Molina) the Cardinals are doing okay in the hitting department. Scott Rolen's shoulder is another year removed from surgery and while he may never repeat his 2004 season, he's a good bet to improve on his numbers from last year. Chris Duncan, who will start in left field, showed 30-40 homerun power in his 90 or so games last year. The negatives: Jim Edmonds will be 37 this year AND he may not even be ready for Opening Day and Juan Encarnacion is somehow still playing professional baseball. FANTASY SLEEPER ALERT: The guy heading into camp at the top of the list for the job at first base is Albert Pujols. Right now the job is Pujols' to lose and I really have to say that I'm impressed by the confidence LaRussa is showing in him. Watch out for him on draft day. You can thank me when you've got your league rapped up by mid-August.
Miscellaneous: Just to piss off roommate and FJFP writer Rob, here's a Molina-related excerpt from an NLCS Game 7 post a few months ago:
'The Mets got Molina-ed. They got Molina-ed good. Yadier "I'm not as fat as my brothers" Molina hit a two-run game winning homer in the top of the ninth. To get to the bottom of the complete improbability of this ever happening I'm going to throw out some numbers: .274, 417, 6, 87, 5. Care to guess what these numbers represent? No? Okay, I'll tell you.
The first number is Yadier Molina's ON BASE PERCENTAGE. Yes, you read that correctly. ON BASE PERCENTAGE. His OBP was almost sixty points lower than Albert Pujols' batting average.
The second is the number of at bats he had this year, fairly standard for a catcher, and the third is the number of homeruns he hit. Six homeruns in 417 at bats. That's about one every seventy at bats. If you assume he gets an average of four at bats a game, that's a homerun for every seventeen regular season games. And this was the youngest Molina's second homerun of a postseason in which he was playing his eleventh game.
Finally, the fourth and fifth numbers relate to the svelte Mr. Aaron Heilman, the man who most directly got Molina-ed. Eighty seven is the number of innings Heilman pitched this season (with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP) and five is the number of homeruns he has surrendered. That's a homerun every 17 innings or so against, on average, hitters who are a good deal better than Yadier Molina. And he was pitching in Shea Stadium which was, despite the very competent Mets offense, the fifth worst park for the long ball this year. And the Mets were 7th in MLB in homeruns with 96 of their 200 homers being hit at home. Assuming the statistics for homeruns per game held from September 6th through the end of the season, visiting teams hit only 60 homeruns at Shea Stadium. What in the name of Aaron f****** Boone happened last night??'
Addendum: Yadier Molina's OPS+ last year was 54. He was half as good as the average baseball player in 2006.
Cardinals-related Ridiculous Proposition Bet: Over/under on how many times my friend Pax will use the phrase "You are So Taguchi and you don't even know it" during a Dodgers-Cardinals game this year: 1,263.
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Houston Astros
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