Football Friday: NFL Championship Games

Playoff Standings (last week in parenthesis)
Ian 5-3 (2-2)
Saj 5-3 (3-1)

Big games coming up this weekend, Ian. Big games. And with spreads of 2 and 3 points, people are predicting close games too. This is what it's all about, Ian. This is where we prove our mettle as idiots who pick football games. This is where I insert another cliché to give what we do a sense of gravitas sort of like when Fox plays one of those fast-paced halftime highlights montages to a piece of weighty, dramatic, classical music. WE MUST PROTECT THIS HOUSE!

Aye. The last great weekend of football.

NFC Championship: New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (Sunday, 3:00pm)

Speaking of arbitrary scheduling, the games this week start at 3:00pm and 6:30pm respectively. I don't get it. Not only are these odd times but there is great potential for the NFC game to run long and overlap the beginning of the AFC game. All this just so ESPN can cram an extra two hours of Sunday NFL Countdown down our throats? I think they're trying to hypnotize me with Michael Irvin's suits. And speaking of how terrible Sunday NFL Countdown is, NEVER watch it in HD. Chris Berman's face looks like it's made of playdough.

On to the game, or as I like to call it: SBGOTW. SBGOTW should be an interesting matchup between a team that is actually fun to watch and the Chicago Bears. Honestly, so boring. Don't get me wrong I wish them well and all that other polite stuff I don't mean, but aside from Devin Hester and Brian Urlacher they are so incredibly boring to watch. Something about the backfield tandem of Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones just doesn't get my heart racing and Rex Grossman would only get my heart racing were I a Bears fan (but not in a good way.) So f****** boring.

On the flip side you have America's team of the year, the New Orleans Saints. Honestly, it feels a little like the movie Major League, with the dastardly owner looking to move the team to greener pastures while the wily group of outcasts and veterans and the old timer coach miraculously finagle their way to the pennant. Except the Saints have a Pro-Bowl quarterback (Brees), the most electric player on the field (Bush), a hammer up the middle (McAllister), a trio of sure-handed receivers (Colston, Horn, Henderson), and a 43 year old first time head coach who won Coach of the Year. And they don't call it "winning the pennant" in football. But the dastardly owner part is true (Tom Benson).

So what's going to happen? I think too much is being made of New Orleans' susceptibility to the deep ball. If you know it's coming, and I think Payton has some idea, you can stop it. It's ludicrous to assume the Saints don't have a plan for Bernard Berrian's streak patterns. Score points early, make Grossman read the zone coverage and deliver the ball accurately, and pay a Bears clubhouse attendant to spike Brian Urlacher's Gatorade with horse, elephant, and killer whale tranquilizers. I'm taking the Saints, despite my belief that Tom Benson is the Jeffrey Loria of the NFL.


The 2006-2007 New Orleans Saints are the best American sports story since McGwire-Sosa in '98. However, since hindsight reveals that the homerun race of '98 is more tainted than a Jason Giambi urine sample, the Saints' success is the best American sports story since probably the 1980 U.S. Olympic hockey team. Was there ever a point in the last 25 years where this entire country was cheering harder for one team throughout the entire season? The 2001 Yankees caught steam after September 11. The 2001-2002 Patriots caught steam after the Snowbowl. Lance Armstrong's sport isn't popular enough. Tiger Woods is sheer greatness but not that special of a story. Kirk Gibson was one game. Rocky IV was a movie. And if you talk to any neoconservative, anything successful since 1981 was a product of Reaganomics. Therefore, Lake Placid was the last great American sports story until these New Orleans Saints.

So now the Saints go marching into Chicago. We were robbed (looted?) out of another game in the Superdome. Seattle should have defeated Chicago last week and most people know that. I even knew it before the game. I've also known since Week 14 that New Orleans was going to the Superbowl this year.

It's not just the karma, though I'd be lying if I don't think that gives them extra juice every time they step onto a football field, not to mention it puts something in the back of their opponents' minds - something that says "Sure, I want to win, but if I lose, I want it to be to them." That can't help anyone...except the Saints.

Yes, it's more than karma. It's the fact that, head to head, I'd take them against any team in their conference. The Saints offense is just too diverse, their coaching is just too good, and their defense is just good enough.

But just for s's and g's, let's take a look at their matchup this week. The Bears are showing a steadily declination in prowess. Their defense is not in midseason form. The loss of Tommie Harris is huge. Take any team's best defensive lineman out of the game and it'd be a huge hit for the team. Do you know how many points the Bears have given up in the 5 games since he's been out? 27, 31, 21, 26, and 24. That is not a good defense and that's their strength! Moreover, the middle three of those five games were against Tampa, Detroit, and Green Bay - not exactly the class of talent in the NFL. So how will the Bears defense do against the Saints? They're going to give up close to 30 points, if not more.

Therefore, I think the Saints can score early. And you made a great point, Saj. If Rex Grossman has to bring them back, that's a problem for the Bears. Oh we gotta big problem, Jerry.

So, the Saints should and will win. If they don't, well, I should have known better than to make a pick that makes sense. After all, it's the 2006-2007 NFL season. Pick: New Orleans

AFC Championship: New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 6:30pm)

Any guesses as to which way I'm leaning?

I feel bad calling the earlier game a Junior Varsity game. It's a good game. The Saints obviously have the overachievement story in the year following the city's disaster. They were statistically the top offensive team in football. The Bears contribute to a good game because they're from Chicago and have a storied history in the league. They had the top ranked defense in the conference (despite the stumble down the stretch). Finally, they were the top two teams from the NFC and they made it to the conference's title matchup. It's not a bad game at all.

But it's definitely the JV game.

At 6:45, the Varsity game will kick off. Colts-Pats has a number of terrific storylines, some of which are: Vinatieri could beat his former team or choke in a new uniform; Gostkowski could replace Vinatieri with a big kick or he could choke while Vinatieri looks on; Brady and Belechick improving on a 12-1 playoff record, cementing their legendary status (Lombardi and Montana are really around the corner if they win it all this year); Patriots looking to be only the second team to ever win 4 out of 6 Superbowls; and of course extending the rivalry between these two teams, which is arguably the greatest non-division rivalry in the NFL.

The paramount storyline, however, is Peyton Manning. Indianapolis does not win this game unless he plays well. If he plays well and wins the game and goes on to win the Superbowl, he can then be safe as an all-time Top 5 quarterback. He'll be in the pantheon (Unitas, Montana, Elway, eventually Brady). If he doesn't play well and they lose, it will be his worst loss yet. If he doesn't win this time, at home, in a dome, as the favorite, against his top rival, then he'll probably never get another chance like this. If he doesn't beat the Patriots in the playoffs now, he never will. This is his "silver bullet" game. Everything has aligned perfectly for him. He must win this game, or his career will never be the same. Thus, this is without a doubt the top storyline. A career will be defined. He's a Hall of Famer no matter what - but will he be Montana or Tarkenton?

I don't think he'll be good enough to win. These last two victories by the Colts were mirages. Both Kansas City and Baltimore had a fatal flaw. The Colts stacked the line against Larry Johnson and average-at-best quarterback Trent Green didn't have the skills or weaponry necessary to take advantage. The Ravens had an anemic offensive game, as two over the hill players were the engine of their offense. The Patriots, meanwhile, are the second most complete team of these playoffs, and they just beat the most complete team. Can the Colts stack the line on the Patriots to stop the three running backs? Not with Brady back there. So do they rush three and drop 8 back? No, then they'll get run on or picked apart by Brady because the Offensive Line could give him three days in the pocket.

And factor in what we know about the Patriots. There's the playoff record of their coach and quarterback (12-1). There's Brady's record in a dome (10-0). There's their uncanny ability to win all close games (6 of their 12 playoff wins this century were by 3 points). The crux of the argument is not that they just do whatever it takes to win games, but that they can do whatever it takes to win games.

See, people outside of New England can't figure out the Pats. Everyone tries to pidgeonhole the great teams and explain what they do so well. The Steelers and Bears of the 70's and 80's had great defenses. The Niners and Cowboys of the 80's and 90's had great offenses. Even the Rams and Ravens Superbowl teams at the turn of the century were teams that played spectacularly well on one side of the ball in order to earn their rings.

Since 2002, however, the dominant team in the NFL, the New England Patriots, have been essentially chameleonic. They morph into whatever it takes to win. Their head coach and front office has set up a brilliantly balanced team. They can win a shoot out with Brady, they can control the clock with their backs, their defense can rush the quarterback or drop back in zone with equal effectiveness. And it drives the rest of the country nuts that they can't figure out how the Pats keep winning. But that's just it. That's what they do so well. They win football games.

The problem, of course, is that people are scared of this enigmaticism, almost as scared as they are of me making up words in the middle of a blog. Since New England's consistent winning doesn't make sense, they just keep picking against them.

And that, friend, is the epitome of a big mistake. I plead with you to not play a contrarian. Scrap whatever argument you've concocted to support a Colts victory and let's head into the Superbowl with an even record. We'll find some interesting way to break a tie. You must pick the Pats. You did last week against the Chargers and the Colts are a worse team. I'll end with a quote from you: "Saj is a homer. I'm taking the Patriots here principally because I can't allow myself to pick against them." Follow through. Pick: PATRIOTS


Quite a post. What else can I say? I can't pick against the Patriots in this game regardless of any football analysis, so there's that. I am left only to provide you with this short one act play loosely based on both Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman and George Bernard Shaw's Pygmalion:

My Fair Peyton
(enter stage left, a teenage Peyton Manning, a prepubescent Eli Manning, and father Archie, all in overalls)

PEYTON: Hey Pop! Go long.
ARCHIE: Ha, ha. Okay, son, okay. (runs across the stage as Peyton throws it to him)
ELI: Wow, Pey! What a spiral! You're going to be a great quarterback someday.
PEYTON: Ah, shucks. Thanks, Eli. You're the best little brother anybody could ever hope for in the whole wide world (rubs his head affectionately). If you work real hard like me you could be a great quarterback someday too.
ELI: Nah, I'll never be good enough (looks at his feet) on account of my learning disability and all.
ARCHIE: Hey, Eli! Out pattern, go. (Archie cocks his arm, and throws a pass. Eli confuses an out pattern for a post route and the ball goes sailing off stage) I said OUT PATTERN! Are you stupid? I swear you got creamed corn between your ears. (Eli heads off stage to retrieve the ball.)
PEYTON: Now, Poppa. You know he don't know any better. He's trying, poppa. He's trying.
ARCHIE: Well he should, dangnabbit. He should. You and Cooper, you were running out patterns at age five.
PEYTON: He's just different. That's all. (Eli returns with the ball)
ELI: Sorry, Pop. I'll get it next time, I swear. (Archie goes in to hug his son, but strikes his face with the back of his hand and takes the football from him)
ARCHIE: You're damn right you will. (He pulls a flask from his front overall pocket and takes a long swig) We're gonna do it again and again until you learn.
ELI: But Pop, I don't want to be a football player.
PEYTON: Now, Eli, cool it. You know how Poppa gets.
ARCHIE: No, Peyton. Let the boy finish (turning to Eli). So all of a sudden you're too good for football?
ELI: I didn't say that, Pop. I just said-
ARCHIE: Oh, I heard what you said. Come with me, Ima take my belt to you boy. (Archie grabs Eli by the arm and starts to lead him offstage)
PEYTON: Pop, wait- (Archie glares at him and tosses him the football)
ARCHIE: Mind your tongue, Peyton. Practice with the tire swing while I tend to your brother. If you tell your mother about this I'll come back at you twice as hard. And that's a promise. (exit Archie dragging a silent Eli)
PEYTON: (poised to throw the ball, speaking to himself) I'm gonna be the greatest quarterback ever.
(enter a young Tom Brady, wearing a leather jacket, the two prettiest girls in high school on his arms)
TOM: Yo, Manning! What's shaking kid?
PEYTON: Oh, hey Tom.
TOM: What are you up to man? It's Saturday night I know you got some ridiculous shit planned.
PEYTON: I'm just gonna throw for an hour or so, then head in to wash up for dinner. Gotta get up early for church tomorrow and maybe throw some more. (chuckles nervously) Gotta work hard if I want to be the starting quarterback next year.
TOM: Gunning for my job, are you Manning? (slaps him on the back) Just kidding, bro. Say, I just found three hundred dollars on the ground, is it yours?
PEYTON: Nah, Poppa doesn't like us carrying our own money.
TOM: Ah, cool. Okay, I'm gonna head out of here. Drew Brees is having a party at his place and Candice here (squeezing the ass of one of the girls) is inviting her bisexual twin sister. Come on through if you want.
PEYTON: Thanks for the invitation, Tom. I'll probably stay in tonight with my brothers and play Boggle.
TOM: Whatevers clever. Peace out, Manning. (exit Tom Brady, and the women)
PEYTON: I'm gonna be the greatest quarterback ever! (throws a perfect spiral through a tire swing. Fade out.)

PATRIOTS.

NFL: Ramp up to the next GOTY

It didn't take long, but the NFL, fresh off a classic New England-San Diego matchup, has another Game of the Year. This matchup pits arguably the greatest playoff rivalry in the sport, with the New England Patriots heading to Indianpolis to play the Colts. Saj, there's much to talk about, but I'll start with this:

How are the Colts three point favorites? Is it as simple as them having the better record and homefield advantage? Or do most people actually expect the Colts to win? Give me your thoughts.


Sorry, I can't provide you with any sound football analysis just yet, my mind is still reeling from learning that Tom Brady is now seeing Gisele Bundchen. Unbelievable. As my friend Dan said, "what did he do in some prior life to be rewarded with this one?" Winning three Superbowls is one thing. Dating a woman the caliber of Bridget Moynahan is another thing. Either of those would definitely take something on par with developing a polio vaccine or saving a group of school children from a five alarm fire. But Gisele Bundchen is the last straw. I have no doubt in my mind that Tom Brady was Mahatma Gandhi in a past life. That's the only way to explain how charmed his life has been; he was a transcendently pure individual that brought justice to millions and died unfairly and abruptly. This is God saying "my bad" for allowing him to be assassinated in 1948. In all seriousness, Tom Brady just vaulted Jeter in a pasttime Jeter invented (namely, sports stars bagging impossibly famous and beautiful women). Somewhere Peyton Manning is crying into his Ovaltine.


Seriously. It just doesn't get any better for a man. You win an enormous playoff game in which you were an underdog. An entire region loves you. You go the lockerroom and wash up and Giselle Bundchen, solidly in my Worlds Top 3, is waiting for you outside the lockerroom. It's like being the star athlete in high school with the hottest girl at school waiting for you after you win the conference. Times a gajillion.

Is this why the spread favors the Colts? Might they esimate Tom Terrific's intentions as losing as soon as possible in order to begin the offseason early? He doesn't even have to go the Pro-Bowl. If he loses, he's on the next jet to Rio.

I mean, the odds makers certainly aren't relying just on football. If they were, the Colts would not be favored, agreed?


I think it's exactly the opposite. Relying solely on football is why the Colts are favored. They're 9-0 at home and they've produced impressive defensive showing in back to back games in the playoffs. And let's not forget that they beat the Patriots in Gillette Stadium earlier this year. The Colts are a talented team. Of course there are things going against them, namely history. And the fact that Peyton Manning threw his offensive line under the bus after last year's divisional playoff loss to the Steelers:




Saj, what most angers me is that national experts like Clayton and Pasquerelli are saying the Colts are going to win because Peyton Manning is "due." It's absurd. If I were to beat you in a game nine straight times, even if we seemed evenly matched, would people bet on you to win the tenth one because you were due? No, people would bet on me because I've proven that I can consistently beat you.

The Patriots, when it counts, consistently raise their game, and this twice included convincing victories over the Colts. The Colts, when it counts, consistently lower their game, including the aforementioned results in Patriot games. Two Indianapolis playoff wins this year does not make them a better team than New England, especially considering in both those weeks the Pats beat two superior teams.

I'm not saying New England is a lock win this Sunday. I'm saying it's absurd they're three point underdogs. What am I missing?


Why are you complaining about the point spread? The Pats are getting three points; put some bills on them this weekend and supplement your salary. I think the spread is justified- the Colts have been almost unbeatable at home in the past two calendar years. Their defense, however aided by playing against two terrible quarterbacks and one game against Herman Edwards, has looked impressive. Maybe they just needed a confidence boost, and holding Larry Johnson to less than thirty rushing yards qualifies as one.

That being said I do see your point. Like when I kept beating you at NBA Jam with Glenn Rice and the Miami Heat. Sure you were due for a victory but you didn't get it until you turned the hot spots back on and I couldn't capitalize on them because any video game in more than two dimensions is suprising mentally taxing for me. Perhaps this is the year the Indianapolis Colts find the hot spots that New England can't capitalize on?


It's Glen Rice with one 'n'. Asshole.

I think what you meant to close with, as our second commenter astutely alluded to, is that Roger Goodell and the referrees will turn the hot spots on for the Colts. I think we'll see at least one Patriot D-Linemen (Warren?) "rough" the passer on Sunday.

The spread is not justified.

The Patriots allowed the second fewest points in the NFL this year. The Patriots just went on the road and beat the #1 seed who was undefeated at home. Two years ago, the Patriots defeated a team much more complete than this Colts team, when they dismantled Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship when the Steelers were 16-1 and hot as a firecracker. The Patriots have never lost an AFC championship in their history, and that includes three of the last five years, two of them coming on the road. The Patriots have handily won the last two post season matchups between these two teams. The Patriots, as you and I have vehemently agreed on, could have beat the Colts in the regular season if they didn't abandon the run.

Peyton Manning's Colts have never won a championship game. The Colts were pitiful against the run in the regular season, letting terrible running backs set PR's. The Colts have faced a one dimensional and no dimensional offense in this year's playoffs, with the one dimensional offense having a horrendous defense. Peyton Manning's Colts have never beat a team seeded higher than them in the playoffs until last Sunday against said no dimensional offense.

These are two completely different histories. I just don't get it.

So I'll just ask you this. Who will most of the country pick in the ESPN Sports Nation poll?


Don't be overconfident. Tread softly. BEWARE OF THE MANNING.

Re: ESPN Sports Nation, the country picks the Colts. America wants the 6'5" quarterback with the laser, rocket arm to win his damn Superbowl. Ignore the point spread, people think he's the underdog here in his umpteenth attempt to vanquish the evil Belichick and his minions, that ne'er-do-well womanizer Tom Brady included. Peyton Manning is the A-rod of football only the public doesn't hate him because he's white, he's doofy-looking, and he plays in a shitbox of a city like Indianapolis and not in a liberal cesspool on one of the coasts. It's like the team merely being from Indianapolis inspires sympathy. God I hate Peyton Manning.


I couldn't help but notice you referred to him as an underdog... No, Saj. He's the favorite by 3 points. You just subconciously surrendered the argument. I accept.

One final thing before we shut this thread down in preparation for tomorrow's Football Friday. As a Patriots fan, do you feel more, less, or about as confident as you did heading into the San Diego game?


Less, believe it or not. My mentality comes for the skewed risk-reward dynamic. The Patriots CANNOT lose to Peyton Manning. The pain of losing is far greater than the pleasure of winning. I can't believe I'm saying this, but this must be how it feels to be a Yankee fan.


You're crazy. There is nothing the Colts do better than the Chargers with one exception: throw the ball. And throwing the ball is exactly what Bill Belechick is best at stopping, and has done it to Peyton Manning in their last two playoff meetings.

The Chargers were unstoppable at home, had the best player in the league, had a much better defense than Indianapolis, and a coach that is no worse than Tony Dungy.

I'll close the thread with this: The Patriots can definitely lose. They can definitely lose. I mean, it's the NFL we're talking about here. But to be more confident against them than the Chargers makes no sense, nor does the point spread. See you tomorrow for picks.

NFL: Gorillaz at 2006 Grammys

Just because they are awesome and we can't say anything about this weekend's past four playoff games that ESPN hasn't discussed ad naseum:



Feel free to ignore Madonna's parts if you are so inclined, but take a moment to acknowledge the awesome 3D animation and the amount of trickery and misdirection it took to make Madonna look fifteen years younger.