Football Friday: Week 17

Editors' note: Every week, these two idiots will play a Pick 'Em NFL game. The object is for each editor to pick four seemingly even NFL matchups from the upcoming weekend, challenging the other pick to the winners. A running record will be tallied. Feel free to play along at home. Leave comments with your own picks if you want to go on the record.

Standings (Week 16 in parentheses)
Ian 28-20 (1-3)
Saj 21-27 (2-2)

I'll kick us off with some housekeeping. That reminds me of some dialogue from The West Wing.

Sam: Let me tell you people something. The GAO needs a little housekeeping, and that's my nickname, okay? I'm "The Housekeeper."
[beat]
Sam: God, that's a terrible nickname.
Josh: Well, start getting used to it for a while.

Anyway, here's the housekeeping. First, we're pushing Football Friday up to Thursday. My holiday weekend begins a little early, but the final week must be contested, as it's Saj's last hope to win the contest.

This is where you, the loyal reader of Around the Blog, might wonder, "But Ian, your worthy but misguided opponent Saj cannot win. With only four games to choose from each week, he cannot make up a seven game deficit!" And cue the second piece of housekeeping.

To celebrate the final week of a crazy NFL season, we are each picking all 16 games on the NFL's slate. For those keeping track at home, Saj must win 8 more than me to take the contest. Therefore, if I win 4 this weekend, he must win 12. This is all my way of making him feel like he's a loser for a third straight week.

On with the show...

1. NY Giants at Washington (Saturday, 8:00) - The Giants started out at 6-2 and have since been 1-6. The main difference? Quality of opponents. They played mostly bad teams the first half of the season and mostly good ones the rest of the way. Washington falls under the "bad" category. Pick: New York

2. Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (Sunday, 1:00) - You know what, I'm just going to go ahead and pick all the home teams who need a win to get into the playoffs. Knowing this NFL season, however, that's probably a death knell. Pick: Cincinnati

3. Detroit at Dallas (1:00) - See above. Pick: Dallas (This is probably the lock of the week. Dallas needs the win for a shot at a home game in the playoffs, and Detroit needs the loss to clinch the top pick, which they'll try to trade, be unsuccessful, end up taking Brady Quinn, and finally fire Matt Millen. Everybody wins. As for Dallas, Parcells would really be wise to let Bledsoe see some snaps before going to him in the playoffs.)

4. New England at Tennessee (1:00) - See above two. Pick: Tennessee (Belichick loses on purpose. We'll see Matt Cassel and Vinny in this one, as well as a running back you never heard of. Also, loyal readers might remember our Patriots predictions from last August, where we agreed on an 11-5 finish with a division title wrapped up by the final week.)

5. Jacksonville at Kansas City (1:00) - See above three. Pick: Kansas City (I would love to see a Denver Broncos screw job this weekend, but it needs a Chiefs victory to happen.)

6. St. Louis at Minnesota (1:00) - I usually hate picking St. Louis on the road, but Minnesota is a similar place to play, and the Rams offense was on fire last week. That and the Vikings suck. Pick: St. Louis

7. Carolina at New Orleans (1:00) - The Saints are locked into the two seed,with a win getting them nothing and a loss costing them nothing. The Panthers, meanwhile, need to win to have a shot at the playoffs. Pick: Carolina

8. Oakland at NY Jets (1:00) - See 2, 3, and 4. Pick: New York. (The Jets did not come this far and upend everyone's expectations to lose a game to the worst team in the league. Also, all the Raiders will be scoreboard watching the Lions game...except for Art Shell, who will be watching nothing in particular.)

9. Seattle at Tampa Bay (1:00) - Poor Seattle. They lost their best two players midway through the year, struggle to win their division, have to fly down to Tampa to play a meaningless game, then fly back to Seattle to host an NFC East team in the first round. Not good times. Pick: Seattle

10. Cleveland at Houston (1:00) - If I was NBC, I definitely would have taken this game as part of the flex package. Pick: Houston

11. San Francisco at Denver (4:15) - See 2, 3, 4, and 8. Pick: Denver (But I'll reeeeeeaaaly be pulling for an upset here. This game and the Indy game could seriously impact the Patriots chances in the playoffs.)

12. Miami at Indianapolis (4:15) - Can we even be confident with a Colts win here? They're an absolute mess. I'll swallow my pride and pull for the Dolphins in this game, as a Colts loss coupled with a New England win gets the Pats the 3 seed and, more importantly, a delayed date with San Diego, who might be upset in round 2, thereby setting up an AFC Championship game in Foxboro. Sound feasible? Come on, Miami! Pick: Indianapolis

13. Atlanta at Philadelphia (4:15) - If I had to rank the pathetic good teams, the Falcons would definitely be third behind the Colts and Giants. How can fans of those teams look at themselves in the mirror? Pick: Philadelphia

14. Arizona at San Diego (4:15) - Regular season mission almost accomplished. The Chargers are one game away from homefield throughout the playoffs. The Cardinals are one game away from doing the same thing they do every January. Pick: San Diego.

15. Buffalo at Baltimore (4:15) - I just got this feeling. Pick: Buffalo

16. Green Bay at Chicago (8:15) - At first, I questioned NBC's decision earlier this week to choose this game for Sunday Night Football. One team (Green Bay) might be eliminated by 7:30 on Sunday night. The other team (Chicago) has the #1 seed all wrapped up and might be resting some players.

And then it slowly started to dawn on me.

Either A) It's Brett Favre's last game or B) It's Brett Favre leading his team to the playoffs. Throw in that it's Chicago on December 31 (Snow and wind?), it's two superb fan bases, and it's a national look at the NFC's top team before their playoff run, and it's a pretty good matchup for NBC. I foresee huge ratings, especially if the Packers are alive.

Just imagine, as the minutes wane deeper into December 31, as New Years Day is just around the corner - as Father Time takes an extended look at all of our souls - Brett Favre, the all time great, fights off not only the Chicago Bears defense, but Father Time's sythe, in the cold and windy stage of his greatest rival's stadium. Yeah, that's good television.


"10. Cleveland at Houston (1:00) - If I was NBC, I definitely would have taken this game as part of the flex package. Pick: Houston..."

Priceless. There's nothing quite like a Derek Anderson, David Carr quarterback duel. And speaking of poor David Carr.... poor David Carr. It's like the Texans have steadfastly refused to build an offensive line in front of him. And just when he thought he was going to spend the next decade throwing screen passes to Reggie Bush, they take Mario "Sam Bowie" Williams. The Texans f***** up. Well, David, there's always the CFL.

Before I get to my picks for this week: I spent a few hours or so yesterday sorting out the the strength of victory and strength of schedule tiebreaking scenarios in the event of the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers both winning their games tomorrow. I'm talking pages of notes, calculations, protractors, slide rules, supercomputers, everything. And then today I realized that others in the media get paid to do this and present in a coherent manner. Damn you, Associated Press. I will spare you my methodology and the lengthy explanations, just read that link. Anyway, here are my picks:

1. NY Giants at Washington (1:00) - Barring wins from Detroit, Minnesota, and two of Arizona/San Francisco/Miami, if the Giants win they pretty much guarantee themselve a spot in the playoffs. It's too bad they won't win because they're playing terrible football. Meanwhile the Redskins may have nothing to play for, but they aren't playing like it having beaten New Orleans and having lost two close games to Philadelphia and St. Louis in their last three. REDSKINS

2. Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (1:00) - Bill Cowher wins this game. Bill Cowher retires. Bill Cowher comes back in three years to coach the Browns. Bill Cowher is hated in Pittsburgh. Bill Cowher refers to himself in the third person. STEELERS

3. Detroit at Dallas (1:00) - Detroit tries to throw this game to guarantee at shot at the top pick but somehow they screw that up too. Matt Millen gets a ten year contract extension after the game and Detroit fans express their happiness by burning half the city. DETROIT

4. New England at Tennessee (1:00) - Bill Belichick is a smart coach. But he is also a proud coach. No way he lets Vince "Wonderlic Wonderboy" Young win this game. Brady plays the first half and then the Cassel/Testaverde machine takes over. PATRIOTS

5. Jacksonville at Kansas City (1:00) - The winner of this game makes nine wins. That's pretty big, especially if (and when) the Broncos and and the Jets lose. I really think Kansas City wins this game, but since you picked them I'm going with Jacksonville. JAGUARS

6. St. Louis at Minnesota (1:00) - Minnesota has to win for the convoluted Packers-Giants tiebreaking scenario to be resolved in favor of the Packers. Therefore I take the Vikings. Logical to the end. VIKINGS

7. Carolina at New Orleans (1:00) - Sean Payton doesn't take it easy this week even though the Saints really have nothing to play for. With the bye week they'll already have a good deal of rest and it's best not to get rusty. Unless Brees is nursing an injury, he'll play the entire game. Look for a lot of Deuce McCallister, look for a lot of just trying not to get hurt. Look for the Panthers to suck in a game they need to win. SAINTS

8. Oakland at NY Jets (1:00) - Do I really need to explain myself? I mean, really? Last night at a bar I trying to convince a Jets fan that the Jets suck and that Chad Pennington is mentally retarded. In response he asked me what I would say if the Jets won the Superbowl and I told him I'd say pretty much the same thing. But that's like asking me what I would say if I saw a centaur and unicorn fighting over a pastrami sandwich. I mean, everyone knows unicorns are vegan so it would never happen. RAIDERS

9. Seattle at Tampa Bay (1:00) - Two words. Three syllables. Tim Ratty. Enough said. BUCCANEERS

10. Cleveland at Houston (1:00) - Mario Williams has 4.5 sacks this season. Reggie Bush has 1200+ yard from scrimmage and seven touchdowns. I can't take a team that sabotages itself like that. Gotta go with my man, Romeo. BROWNS

11. San Francisco at Denver (4:15) - This game is a must win for the 49ers in terms of the Packers-Giants tiebreaker. And beating Denver makes the AFC playoff picture that much more interesting. I don't fear Denver in the playoffs as much as Ian does. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate lead to suffering. 49ERS.

12. Miami at Indianapolis (4:15) - What has twenty-two legs and sucks? If you guessed a twenty-two legged vampire bat, you'd be wrong. It's the Colts defense. Get it? You see, there are eleven players on the defensive side of a football team and each of those players has two legs. I'll give it some time to sink in. DOLPHINS

13. Atlanta at Philadelphia (4:15) - Atlanta wins this game. Philly, due to the Dallas loss, still wins their division. Jim Mora Jr. accepts a job offer from the Temple University football team at halftime. ATLANTA

14. Arizona at San Diego (4:15) - Another one of the games that has to go in the Packers favor in the event of a tiebreaker. San Diego wants homefield, but they'll be happy to get out of this game without any injuries. CARDINALS

15. Buffalo at Baltimore (4:15) - Buffalo needs this game to end the season at 8-8 and I believe in them. But I don't believe in them enough to score points on this Baltimore defense. Final score: Baltimore 10, Buffalo -6. RAVENS

16. Green Bay at Chicago (8:30) - You didn't pick a winner for this game, so I'm going to pick one for you. You picked Chicago. You're against the spirit of competition and you don't want to see the Packers in the playoffs. You hate Brett Favre and you hate America. Just move to Kandahar and change your name to Ian Walker Lindh. PACKERS!


HaHA! You totally fell for it. I had no idea who to take Sunday night. Who are the most inconsistent players in the NFL? Any list that doesn't include Mike Vick and Brett Favre at the top should be exposed to 451 degrees of heat.

Anyway, as I can see that SNF game going in a myriad of ways, I thought I'd dupe you into making a pick before me. Then, I would take whoever you didn't. That's the only way I could guarantee greater than a 50-50 shot. Pick: Chicago

I've heard recently that this might not be Favre's last season. So I have to ask you - How will the rest of the Packers season affect Favre's decision? Does a win tomorrow night convince him to stay? Does a playoff appearance convince him to stay? Or does either one of those things convince him to go out with some dignity? What do you think?


Anything short of a Superbowl brings Brett Favre back. Favre is gonna play as long as he physically can and only a championship will keep him from coming back. Although a slightly successful playoff run might prove enough of a happy ending to leave the NFL. In short, I have no idea. GO PACKERS!

Gerald Ford: An athlete and a President

Former President Gerald Ford died Tuesday at the age of 93. Early reports are that he may have been senselessly eaten by wolves. And Tom Brokaw may be gay. Dana Carvey had no idea how prescient he really was. (Saturday Night Live, ca. 1996)

NFL: Week 16 Recap

What in the name of Science is going on?

Has anyone who doesn't get paid for it taken a look at the clinching scenarios? How about the wild playoff standings that show 20 of the 32 NFL teams still alive heading into the last week? It's crazier than a caffeinated Tom Cruise. One scenario paints this picture beautifully.

The Packers have five clinching scenarios, four of which are unique from each other. The most likely scenario alone is enough to make ones head look like that bald guy at the end of Raiders of the Lost Arc. Try to follow along as I try to articulate the language of nonsense into the more familiar language of gibberish.

The New York Giants and Green Bay Packers are currently the 6th and 7th teams in the NFC, respectively. Only the top 6 get in. So, one would assume if they both won, then the Giants would stay at 6 and get in, while the Packers would stay at 7 and be the first team out. However, this is not necessarily the case.

The reason the Giants get in over the Packers is because the Giants win the 3rd tiebreaker - record against common opponents, or teams that both New York and Green Bay have played. The Giants have one more win against common opponents than the Packers (Laughably, it turns out the Giants have one win against common opponents and the Packers have zero). The catch is that in Week 17, the Packers play one such common opponents - the Chicago Bears. The Giants play a non-common opponent in the Washington Redskins. Therefore, the Packers can make up that game in the last week. So, since we're assuming they both win and remain tied in their overall record, the Packers tie the Giants in the 3rd tiebreaker. That means it goes to the 4th tiebreaker - strength of victory. And, as Saj himself put it so eloquently last night: "What does that even mean?"

Neither of us are sure, but I'm fairly certain it's the equivilent of the BCS' margin of victory. And according to everything I can find, this tiebreaker is still up in the air. I suspect, considering the sizeable fanbases of the G-Men and Pack, that there will be a lot of number crunching by ESPN and the like to figure out what has to happen this weekend if both teams win.

I'll turn it over to you Saj. Thoughts on the NFL right now? How about our beloved Patriots and their possible playoff road? (We can finally talk about it now that the Pats clinched.)


Before I get into the NFL, I want to discuss something vastly more important: the dangers of fantasy football. If you have been reading this blog for the past months then you know that for a period of time Jon Kitna was the starting quarterback for both of my fantasy football teams. Jon Kitna. That should give you an idea of how my seasons went. But somehow I ended up, to Ian's chagrin, in the title game of our league this past weekend. And in true Saj form I overthought my starters and benched Trent Green, Chris Chambers, Reggie Bush and the Minnesota defense for Alex Smith, Braylon Edwards, Ronnie Brown and St. Louis, a -32 point swing in a week where I lost by THREE POINTS.

But the worst part about that loss was that I was completely engrossed in watching that trainwreck of a Monday night game between the Jets and the Dolphins. And THAT is the true danger of fantasy football. It will compel even the most honorable and stoic of men to degrade themselves by watching three hours of the most horrendous football games. That game was so bad Kornheiser and Theisman had to force themselves to trade barbs. It was like the sloppy play, Kornheiser's seasonal depression, and Theisman's probable drinking problem just took the fight out of them. It was painful to watch (but I'm glad I DVR'ed it).

Thoughts on the NFL that I think I think (apologies, Peter King)
1. I can never correctly gauge the Patriots. They always look terrible to me in games like the one they played in Jacksonville, but they still won. Not a single turnover against a pretty good Jacksonville defense, domination of the time of possession, over a 100 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns, and a 71% completion rate for Tom Brady. But the Patriots still only won by three and Jacksonville was marching for at least the game-tying field goal until Jarvis Green forced David Garrard to fumble in the waning minutes. I just can't tell how good this team is or how they'll play against good teams in the playoffs. To be fair I could never tell that about any team, but still. Sidenote on Scobee: If Josh Scobee, the Jacksonville kicker, had made a 50+ yard field goal to send the game into overtime I would have won my fantasy league but the Patriots may not have won the game to clinch their division. To make an offensive and barely apt analogy, it would have felt like Sophie's choice.
2. I hope with all of my heart that the Green Bay Packers make the playoffs. They were 4-8 three weeks ago and now they have a better shot of making it than Atlanta, Carolina, or St. Louis. Just one game against a Chicago team that has nothing to play for and some convoluted voodoo math re: the Giants is between Brett Favre and the playoffs. This may be crazy, but in the terrible NFC the Packers could win a few games in the postseason.
3. Jeff Garcia looked PHENOMENAL against the Cowboys and Tony Romo looked like a guy from Eastern Illinois who went undrafted.
4. Terrell Owens needs to realize that if his hands won't allow him to catch the football, the Cowboys will stop throwing to him.
5. ESPN needs to cool it with the video montages they play before the Monday Night Football games. Last night's game started off with a dramatization of a young child dreaming about the Jets scoring a touchdown on Christmas with the voiceover work obviously done by a 45 year old woman. Then Kiefer Sutherland showed up and rather intensely informed us that he was ready for some football and asked if we were as well. Finally they played their standard over-saturated introduction. It was like an 8 year old's art project after he/she had recently discovered glitter glue. And all of this pales in comparison to their alternate Hank Williams introduction with Silvo Dante on guitar and Angela Bassett playing Little Richard. And ESPN did so well with those brilliant "Is it Monday Yet?" television spots. At least they didn't commission Pink to sing a terrible song over some B-rate computer generated graphics. SO MANY LINKS!!!
6. Saw a mock MLB fantasy draft on Yahoo. When do pitchers and catchers report again?


Damn, you, Saj. I was going to use the pitchers and catchers line...only I was going to wait until the Pats were defeated in the playoffs! What the hell are you doing? The Pats are alive and well. There is no team the Patriots cannot defeat when they are healthy. Still, some roads to the Superbowl are easier than others. There are two teams the Patriots can face in the first round - The Denver Broncos and the New York Jets. Either game would take place in Foxboro. Which would you rather see?

Was that Romo line a thickly veiled plea to see Drew Bledsoe at the helm again? It's not as crazy as it sounds. The Cowboys are starting to put forth that lackadaisical effort that we were seeing earlier in the year. When they went to Romo, the excitable rookie who the team could rally around, all players, in every facet of the game, picked up their effort. Now, with the team once again needing an adrenelin push, couldn't they turn to the likeable, cagey veteran who the team could rally around? Remember when Brady got hurt in that Steelers AFC Championship game? Bill Simmons himself said that the Pats would not have won that Steeler game if Brady didn't get hurt. Bledsoe was the wildcard that kicked the team in gear.

Anyway, Parcells going back to Bledsoe is not as crazy as it sounds. What do you think?

Finally, a though on Jeff Garcia and those Philadelphia Eagles. I'd like to point out that they did something I'm almost positive no other team did this year. They just won three road games in three weeks. Not only that, they were all division opponents. They just defeated the Redskins, Giants, and Cowboys in front of each of their respective home fans. You just don't see that in the NFL. Is there any team in football that you would pick to defeat all three division rivals on the road in three straight weeks? I wouldn't. Not the Pats, not the Bears, not the Chargers. Hats off to the Eagles.

Which gets me to my larger point. For the Eagles-Cowboys matchup yesterday, I said the team that won that game plays the Bears in the NFC Championship. I firmly believed that then and I firmly believe that now. The Eagles are going to be the 3rd seed, win a home game, then go on the road to play the Saints, where they lost by three points when they weren't playing nearly as well and the Saints were playing much better. The Eagles are proving to be an excellent road team down the stretch. Everyone has stepped up in the absence of Owens and now McNabb. Watch out for Philadelphia!


On Eagles: If your home stadium was in Philadelphia, you'd be a better road team too.

On Bledsoe: Not Romo's fault that the Cowboys couldn't punch the ball in from the 1 yard line with three attempts. Not even an attempt at a QB sneak. And the whole time John Madden is playing the part of the old curmudgeon lamenting about how the young guys don't go with the play actionpass nowadays like they should.

On Broncos or Jets: I could see the Patriots beating either of these teams, but when it comes down to it I'd rather see the Broncos. Denver's defense isn't playing as well as it had been earlier in the season and they'll have a rookie QB on the road in the playoffs. While the Jets really, really suck, we can't forget about Mangini- he's a dour expression and mustard-stained sweatshirt away from morphing into Bill Belichick. Nobody wants to play Belicheck in the playoffs, especially Belichick.


I'm eating major crow on the Jets. I never thought they had a shot at the playoffs, and now they're a win over the hapless Raiders away from getting in. I think it ultimately comes down to this: The AFC East was never as bad as we thought it would be. The Dolphins and Bills were tough outs down the stretch. They'll both finish within a game or two of .500, and that's after having to play the Pats and the Jets twice each. Only two divisions per conference get two playoff teams, and the AFC East was one of them.

So not only are the Jets going to make it, but you could make the case they deserve to. They rolled with some punches, knocked off the Pats, played big down the stretch, and won their winnable games - ugly or nay. They're probably one and done in the playoffs, but they still overachieved because they have a coach and team that worked their ass off. Watch out for the AFC East next year. Three teams will be battling for the playoffs.

I think you're crazy to want to see the Broncos more than the Jets. Can you imagine if there was a team that the Patriots defeated in the playoffs last year AND in the regular season for years and years, and one their fans came up to you and said they wanted to see the Pats in the playoffs this year? You'd laugh in their face. That's us and the Broncos. The Broncos, for whatever reason, play the Pats very well every year. They always give Brady problems. Homefield, time of year, health of players, it doesn't matter. The Broncos play the Pats well every single year in every single scenario. So if they beat the Patriots in round 1, I don't want anyone surprised. They scare me. Bring on the Jets. Mangini may be the next Belichick, but Belichick is the current Belichick.

How about after the first round? Would you want to travel to San Diego, Baltimore, or Indianapolis?


Baltimore. I don't like our chances outscoring Indy and I don't like our chances in stopping Tomlinson. Baltimore may have the best defense in the AFC, but we can win a 13-10 game. I don't think we can win a 37-31 game.

Football Friday: Week 16

Editors' note: Every week, these two idiots will play a Pick 'Em NFL game. The object is for each editor to pick four seemingly even NFL matchups from the upcoming weekend, challenging the other pick to the winners. A running record will be tallied. Feel free to play along at home. Leave comments with your own picks if you want to go on the record.

Standings (Week 15 in parentheses)

Ian 27-17 (3-1)
Saj 19-25 (1-3)

As Ian so graciously pointed out to me, being 8 games back with two weeks to go means that I'm not technically eliminated. You know what that means? Comeback City, baby. Population: me. Week 15 boasts some of the toughest matchups of the year for you, Ian. Let's see if you at least get one of these right.

Tampa Bay at Cleveland (Sunday, 1:00pm)

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (Sunday, 1:00pm)

Cincinnati at Denver (Sunday, 4:15pm)

Philadelphia at Dallas (Monday, 5:00pm)

One of those is a trap game. And if you give me New England at Jacksonville, I will lose whatever respect I still have for you.


Why would I give you New England at Jacksonville? I just need you to get one more loss. No freebies yet. Instead, here are your four. Your back is against the wall. Because I kind of like you, I gave you all relevent games. Time to run the table:

Atlanta at Carolina (Sunday, 1:00) Winner is alive for the last playoff spot next week.

Tennessee at Buffalo (Sunday, 1:00) Yes, Tennessee counts is still alive. But will they be alive when they host the Pats next week?

New Orleans at NY Giants (Sunday, 1:00) This is the second straight year the Saints travel to New York, only this year it's fair.

San Diego at Seattle (Sunday, 4:15) I like this game. Twill be a treat on Christmas eve.


I knew I should have given you the Tennessee game. Stupid, stupid me. Okay, here goes (winning team in bold.)

Atlanta at Carolina

Carolina, a popular preseason choice to win the NFC, is freefalling faster than, well, something that falls really fast (Sorry, can't be clever right now, I have a vicious head cold and I've been whining about it for the last few days.) Right now they suck more balls than an Oklahoma meth-whore. And I'm trademarking meth-whore, by the way- they're the new crackwhores. As it's the holidays, I'm not going to look up who's starting at quarterback tomorrow, Weinke or Delhomme, mostly because it doesn't matter. What matters is that the Panthers are missing Mike Rucker, a Pro Bowl caliber pass rusher. If you're playing Michael Vick you need all the Pro Bowl caliber pass rushers you can get your grubby little hands on. Factor in Vick's pretty darn good performance last week and the Falcons knowing that they have to pretty much win out to make the playoffs and this looks like an Atlanta romp. Of course Vick's been a yo-yo all season and the Jim Mora-Falcons disparity between coaching prowess and team talent may be largest in the NFL, but I'm sticking with the Falcons.

Tennessee at Buffalo

Last week I picked against the Bills and Titans at home and got burned by J.P. Losman and Pacman Jones respectively. I really have no idea who to go with in this game so I'm going with the home team. The first rule about picking a Bills game in December: Don't talk about picking a Bills game in December. The second rule about picking a Bills game in December: Re-read the first rule.

New Orleans at NY Giants

The Giants are too much of a mess for me to pick them. And as a resident of New York City I would REALLY like to see them miss the playoffs so I could comiserate with Tom in the copy center at work about something besides the Knicks and Mets. Is it foolish to make my picks with such caprice? I say no.

San Diego at Seattle

I'm not sure what is a bigger gimme- this game or the Atlanta game. San Diego still has two things to play for: a bye and a number one seed. Meanwhile the Seahawks have been losing with gusto lately. They're two losses from missing the playoffs to the 49ers, a team that still has one of the worst point differentials in the league and, if San Francisco does win their division, possibly the worst ever point differential for a playoff team in the history of organized sports. I have faith in the Seahawks ability to screw it up. Plus very few things would make me happier than seeing the 49ers and the Packers make the playoffs. Basically a puppy and a kitty snuggling and Donald Trump defending Miss USA's alcohol, drug, and sex filled escapades in New York City exhaust the list.


Okay, so all it takes to put you away is one win? Time to play prevent defense. Strategem: There's no WAY all four visiting teams will win. I'm taking all the homies. I don't need to win with style. I just need to win. And at least one home team will win.

Game 1: Tampa Bay @ Cleveland: Frankly, this is the reason I went with the four home teams tactic. What kind of jerk assigns this game? I don't even want to think about it. Pick: Cleveland

Game 2: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh: Steelers close very well. I think they shut down Baltimore's offense this week. I've decided the Ravens are the team I want the Patriots to visit in the second round. San Diego is scary even with that shaky playoff coach, and Indy already beat the Patriots in Foxboro. The Pats would need a Baltimore win here to make this path possible, but I don't see it happening. Pick: Pittsburgh

Game 3: Cincinatti @ Denver: Cutler finally has a notch in his belt. Now he gets to go home to Denver as a winner, and Denver is a tough enough place to play in without a cocky, talented QB on the other side. I feel like no one is talking about this game, but this is the most important game of the weekend. These guys are in the drivers seat for the last two playoff spot, but one of them has to lose, opening the door for SIX TEAMS below them. Pick: Denver

Game 4: Philadelphia @ Dallas: The winner of this game plays the Bears in the AFC Championship game. Just so you know. And since I've been saying it all year, don't be surprised when I say - Pick: Dallas


Side note: When I was writing about the ideal path for the Patriots, it came to mind that the ideal contending team to see in the first round would be a visiting Jacksonville team. However, Jacksonville does not make the playoffs if they lose this weekend. And who are the Jaguars playing this weekend? The Patriots.

So be fully prepared for me to remind everyone of this. If the Patriots lose, it was because Coach Belichick wanted them to.

NFL Week 15 Recap (and more)

Before the football, some quick hits: And by quick I mean Carmelo Anthony and by hits I mean bitch slaps. It's the holiday season and the only thing more cliche than an extended Christmas metaphor is a bullet-pointed rundown of the fallout from the Knicks-Nuggets holiday brawl (video.) I'd do a "Winners" and "Losers" thing but nobody ever wins when something like this happens. Except for the sports media and the cross-section of basketball and ultimate fighting fans (READ: males).

To begin, David Stern meted out some holiday justice in the form of 47 games worth of suspensions:

- Carmelo Anthony: Melo led the charge with a fifteen game suspension for his half punch, half bitch slap of Mardy Collins (it should have been an extra 10 for running away from Jared Jeffries). Honestly, it's like Carmelo Anthony is engaged in a character battle against himself. First he begins to emerge as one of the best players in the NBA, and makes that sick commercial with the tennis balls drill. Then he appears in a "stop snitching" video for a Baltimore drug dealer. Then he donates $1.5 million to build a Youth Center. And now this. Carmelo, you have to realize that you are too important to your team to be the one sucker-punching faceless rookies and getting suspended. Leave that s*** to Nene: a 15 games suspension for him means the Nuggets don't have to pay him.

- Nate Robinson: Lil' Nate got ten games and proved to be the most volatile guy on the court; getting is J.R. Smith's face after Smith was the one who was egregiously fouled. The suspension was more for the foxtrot he did with J.R. into a bunch of fans than the shoving and posturing. In Madison Square Garden those seats are expensive and those fans are important. Nate Robinson sidenote: watch how he thought twice about getting into it with Carmelo as Carmelo was retreating from an enraged Jared Jeffries. My money is probably on Nate in that contest. Once he gets inside Anthony's arms he could do some damage. He's a little ball of intensity with the short guy chip on his shoulder. It's just too bad we didn't find out.

- J.R. Smith: The real loser here. Ten games because he was bodyslammed by Mardy Collins then tackled by Nate Robinson.

- Mardy Collins: Six games. I'm not sure if he gets suspended if a fight doesn't break out, but he definitely gets fined. Nobody believes Collins was just trying to keep Smith from dunking and nobody believes his coach didn't tell him to slam Smith into the floor. He's an eleventh man rookie, he does what he's told when he's told to do it.

- Jared Jeffries: Jeffries got four games for his dedicated pursuit of Carmelo Anthony that left coaches, officials, and teammates strewn about in his wake. It's impressive he got as far down the court as he did.

- Nene and Jerome James: A game each for leaving the bench. Completely useless suspensions that were thrown in to remind players to not leave the bench during an altercation. Slightly more damaging to the teams might be the high probability that both these guys will spend their off days eating Krispy Kremes and chugging the grease from the Frialator at McDonald's. Get it? They're fat.

Of the non-suspended parties:

- Denver Nuggets: A paltry $500,000 franchise fine pales in comparison with the loss of their two leading scorers in Anthony and Smith. On the plus side Eduardo Najera earns an expanded role for fifteen games, and that can never be bad for a Denver team that's in seventh place in the ultra-competitive Western Conference.

- New York Knicks: So they lose Collins (a garbage time rookie) Robinson (a feisty yet limited guard) and Jeffries (a guy who has been hurt for most of the season anyway.) It's almost like David Stern was doing Isaiah a favor. Perhaps more importantly, they lost any dignity they still had.

- Isaiah Thomas: speaking of losing dignity at a precipitous pace, Isaiah basically said, without saying it, that he ordered the foul on Smith. No one would ever interpret telling Carmelo Anthony to stay out of the paint as telling him that he should not still be in the game, as Thomas claims, and he's a fool for thinking that would fly. If you're going to do something, do it right. Sign up Bill Laimbeer as an assistant coach and teach Eddy Curry how to throw those elbows around. I hope beyond hope that Isaiah is still the coach of this team next year. The demise of the Knicks is one of the most entertaining things for a non-New York sports fan living in New York alongside Eli Manning's interception at the end of this week's Eagles game and seeing A-Rod being irrationally mistreated by the media.

- George Karl: For embarassing the Knicks, he's my new favorite head coach in the NBA. It's just too bad he was punished so severely by losing Smith and Anthony for a combined 25 games. The message is pretty clear: don't f*** with the NBA's flagship franchise, even if they're playing like the Phoenix Mercury right now.

Thoughts? Football? Holiday cheer?


Holy smokes, Saj. You've never had a larger post, and the NBA isn't even one of your main two sports. I'm sick of agreeing with you on most issues, so I'm not going to opine on this subject. If anyone cares what I think, just re-read Saj's mammoth post.

As thrilled as I am with the Celtics recent surge, I cannot deny that 'tis the season of football. The NFC is remarkably tight for that last playoff spot. The Eagles should capture the 5 seed, leaving SEVEN teams within a game of each other for the last playoff spot. In the AFC, there are EIGHT teams within one game of each other for the two wildcard spots. To delve into all of them would send this thread over 2,000 words with only one post each.

So I'll use this time for a couple questions. Who do you think takes the last NFC playoff spot and who takes the last two AFC playoff spots?


Got the message, let's keep this short. This is a very confusing playoff picture, and since nobody really reads our blog I won't take the time to sort it out. Or will I? What I will say is that Philly is no lock to make the playoffs just yet. If they lose to Dallas this weekend and Atlanta beats Carolina, you're looking at a Week 17 Falcons-Eagles matchup which could be a do or die for both these teams, assuming the Giants win out against the Saints and the Redskins. From there it gets a little confusing. For instance, if the Eagles lose out and the Vikings win out, and only one of Atlanta and NY Giants hits a 9-7 record, the Vikings are in the playoffs by virtue of a better conference record than Philadelphia. There are other scenarios which you can work out here and here if you want to drive yourself nuts. My prediction: Eagles, Falcons.

For the AFC, Cincinnati and NY Jets. Why? Because I can feel it in me bones.


No way the Jets make it. I refuse to believe such a bad team can make the playoffs in a difficult conference. I'm glad Cincinnati lost last night, as they would have scared the heck out of me as a 5 seed. But then so would the Chiefs, and those are the two teams I expect to grab those last two spots. (NFC - Eagles and Giants)

Can you justify anything better than one and done for the Patriots? What do yer bones tell you?


Can I justify more than a one and done for the Patriots? Sure. You're talking to the guy who talked himself into thinking mixed berry mentos were a suitable substitute for fruits and vegetables in the food pyramid. My rationalization skills know no bounds.

Having no integrity allows me to suspend reality when it comes to picking NFL games. Here's a rundown of the Patriots road to the Superbowl this season: Beat the Jets at home, beat the Chargers in San Diego, DEMOLISH the Colts in Indianapolis, and finally allow the NFC champions to concede in lieu of actually playing the Superbowl, provided that the head coach of the opposing team gets a giant Patriots tattoo on his ass and walks down Tremont Street pantless, bent over, and backwards. What say you?

There's a gay joke in there about what my bones tell me about a pantless, bent over, NFL coach, but since I'd be the butt of that joke it's best left unsaid.

Football Friday: Week 15

Editors' note: Every week, these two idiots will play a Pick 'Em NFL game. The object is for each editor to pick four seemingly even NFL matchups from the upcoming weekend, challenging the other pick to the winners. A running record will be tallied. Feel free to play along at home. Leave comments with your own picks if you want to go on the record.

Standings (Week 14 in parentheses)

Ian 24-16 (2-2)
Saj 18-22 (2-2)

You must have been feeling pretty good last week at 4:00. I was sitting at 0-2 with Tennessee in overtime, while you were at 2-0 with two home teams still to play. And as good as you were feeling at 4:00 is how bad you must have been feeling on Monday night, when a potential huge swing was relegated to both of us going 2-2 on the week and you making up no ground.

Now, with three weeks of football to play, you need to make up 6 games. I'll do the math for you, because you're just a lawyer. If I go 1-3 for the rest of the season and you go 3-1 for the rest of the season, we tie in the overall standings. And since I never go worse than 1-3, it sounds like you're going to need a couple perfect weeks down the stretch.

Good luck with that. Your picks:

Miami at Buffalo (Sunday, 1:00) - Wait...is the AFC East not that bad afterall?

Jacksonville at Tennesee (Sunday, 1:00) - The Patriots' final two opponents.

Pittsburgh at Carolina (Sunday, 1:00) - Over-rated. Clap, clap, clapclapclap.

Dallas at Atlanta (Saturday, 8:00) - Yes, all 1:00 games. Your season could be over by 4.


You are such a trick. But replace the "tr" with a "d." Dick. That's it. You are such a dick. Here are your games:

NY Jets at Minnesota (Sunday, 1:00) - You hear that? That's the sound of the Jets breaking the hearts of the ten fans they still have left.

Denver at Arizona (Sunday, 4:05) - Denny Green might have bigger breasts than Bill Parcells.

Philadelphia at NY Giants (Sunday, 4:15) - You think Jeff Garcia could get away with going by J-Gar? Me neither.

Cincinnati at Indianapolis (Monday, 8:30) - Great Monday night matchup.

Go to it, hoss.


Only tricks call other people tricks. By the way, I've held you in high regard and you're a good friend. (Kill 'em with kindness, baby. Kill 'em with kindness.)

Game 1: NY Jets @ Minnesota: It's the first playoff game of the year! Both of these teams are one loss away from their season being over. It's actually a pretty tough game to call, as both teams are so inconsistent in their production. When in doubt, I usually go through this thought process: Who would Saj take? Well, I know he'd pick against the Jets in this situation, do he'd go with the Vikings. Therefore, I will go with the Jets. Pick: New York

Game 2: Denver @ Arizona: How much further can Denver fall? In early November this was a Superbowl contender. Now, in mid-December they're fighting for their playoff lives. Jay Cutler has yet to win a game. You know a Jake Plummer-led Broncos team would beat the Cardinals this weekend. I can't say the same for Jay Cutler, as despite the difficult schedule, he's winless in the NFL. The Cardinals are playing better of late, and you gotta figure Leinart is only improving down the stretch. Throw in that this game is in Arizona, and I'd be leaning towards them. However, I see a scenario developing. Cutler, via preformance or injury, won't finish this game. What's more, this is Plummer's return to the desert where he played his first six seasons, and that's always motivation for athletes. If Cutler struggles, I really think Coach Shanahan goes back to the Snake. Pick: Denver

Game 3: Philadelphia @ NY Giants: Game of the Week. These two teams hate each other. These two fanbases hate each other. The unborn fetuses of these two cities hate each other. It's that bad. Throw in the fact that these are the current 5 and 6 seeds in the conference, but the loser will drop down with an Atlanta win, and that makes this a yuge, yuge game. This is another difficult one to call because the Eagles could be 3-10 going to Giants stadium to play ab 11-2 Giants team and Philly might win. It's like UNC-Duke when one of the teams is in a down year. When they play, anything could happen. I think this game comes down to JGar being able to make more plays than EMan. EMan has yet to play well in a big game, and this is one of them. JGar is the wiley vet who has thrown 8 touchdowns to no intereceptions in his last 3 games. I love Philly doing all this without T.O. and now McNabb. This should really prove how absurd enormous contracts are in football. Anyway, since I can't pick two New York teams to win on one weekend, I gotta go the other way on this one. Pick: Philadelphia

Game 4: Cincinnati @ Indianapolis: This was the other game I was thinking about giving you. This will be the first time in Indy's slump that I will pick against them. (Apologies ahead of time if this singlehandedly turns their season around.) Still, they have yet to prove they can stop the run without putting 8 men in the box, and you canNOT put 8 men in the box against Palmer & Co. You just can't. We definitely have potential for a 40something to 30something game, but in the end, the team that can control the clock will come out on top. Pick: Cincinnati


Listen, Ian, I know I'm terrible at this and I need an 0-4 week from you but I draw the line at accepting charity. Come on, give me your real picks. As for me, the comeback starts... NOW.

(pick in bold)

Miami at Buffalo

The question any NFL fan has to ask themselves: is handing the keys to your team to J.P. Losman a bad decision or a bad decision? That's not a typo, there' s really only one option. And good news for the cold-averse Dolphins: it should be close to 50 degrees in "frigid" Buffalo this weekend. This just continues to prove my assertion that professional sports is the single aspect of civilization that will be most affected by global warming. And since I don't care to offer any real football analysis for this pick, here's a New York Jets knock-knock joke:

"Knock knock"
"Who's there?"
"Chad Pennington"
"Chad Pennington who?"
"Chad Pennington has the arm of seven year old retarded child who also suffers from early onset advanced amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (Lou Gehrig's disease). Oh, and you probably should have drafted Matt Leinart."

Jacksonville at Tennessee

Jacksonville has had the most predictable inconsistent season in the NFL. Of their five losses, four of them have come against Washington, Houston, and Buffalo. They've beaten the Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, and Colts. What does this mean for this week's game at Tennessee? At first glance, it looks like another Jaguars loss- but wait just a second here. Tennessee has won four out of its last five, including wins over the aforementioned Eagles, Giants, and Colts. So they're playing pretty well. They might actually be a GOOD team at this point in the season. Pretty sneaky, Jacksonville, but you're going to win this game.

Pittsburgh at Carolina

Let me put it this way: you could have a roster full of Steve Smiths with another practice squad with more Steve Smiths and even some Chris Gambles, Julius Pepperses, and D'Angelo Williamses, and you would still lose almost every game you play if you were starting Chris Weinke at quarterback. Remember Weinke, the 28 year old who stole the Heisman trophy from Josh Heupel in 2000? Good news for Weinke though: as a member of the All-suck Heisman team he gets to be the one to hand Troy Smith a clipboard and/or tell him he has to switch to safety to even make it three years in the NFL on draft day. Apparently Danny Wuerffel and Eric Crouch are busy; the spring/summer season is a hectic one in the used car business. Wow, that was mean and completely baseless.

Dallas at Atlanta

Tony Romo showed me something last week. Namely that he sucks, but the NFL and opposing defenses just had to see it first to believe it. In lieu of actual football analysis, I offer you a link about some 17 year old Marcus Vick banged for almost two years. Apparently she was a honors student, but it took her two years to figure out that having intercourse with a star college athlete who has a rich famous star professional athlete brother was the wrong thing to do. I especially like the part about Marcus Vick telling her he "loved her" and that he wanted her "to have his child." Seems about par for the course when compared to the 6-under Kevin Federline must have pulled over Britney Spears before he got her to marry him. I'm not sure if that golf analogy works. POPOZAO!

Miami, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Atlanta. The only home team I picked was Atlanta, and they're playing a team that, two weeks ago, was earmarked for the second seed in the NFC. Should I just concede now?


Yes, I'm waiting for your concession call so I can make a ballroom full of people very, very happy.

Baseball: Daisuke Matsuzaka(!)

Scott Boras is a prick. And he is bad for baseball. My roommate Rob made a very cogent argument last night for how, objectively, that isn't the case, but I am not objective. And I think Scott Boras is prick who is bad for baseball.

But if ESPN.com is reporting correctly, the two sides are only $3 million a year apart at the moment and in spite of how much of a prick Scott Boras is, you have to believe a deal will get done today. On the Red Sox side, it's hard to justify losing a guy like that over $3 million a year when you just gave Julio Lugo $36 million dollars. On Matsuzaka's side, it's hard to justify letting your beelzebub of an agent hold you hostage and effectively take away the $8-14 million in earnings you'd leave on the table if you waited two years until free agency, not to mention the value of your exposure to the American market and how you'd be perceived in Japan for letting a few million be a deal breaker. There's a compromise in there somewhere, but whether it's closer to the Theo Epstein's figures or Scott Boras' is the question. Oh, and Scott Boras is a prick.


I'm really concerned with the amount of input DMat has on this matter. I definitely think Boras would stop at nothing to get the deal he wants, including misleading his client. It's obvious that Boras has a reason to not compromise with the Red Sox or with Matsuzaka; Whatever he ends up getting, that will be a measuring stick for Barry Zito's upcoming contract. Boras holds the top two free agent pitchers on the palm of his hand, and one contract will effect the other. So he's purposefully yanking Matsuzaka around in an effort to get leverage on Zito's first offer. Boras would rather let the best Japanese pitcher ever go home before letting him sign an 8 million dollar a year contract, even if it's in the best interest of his client. That way, a small DMat contract won't cause Zito's money to come down.

And to you roommate, I would explain to him that, like I just previewed, Boras only has his own well-being at heart, not his client.

Exhibit A: Alex Rodriguez. Arod could have signed with Texas for unreal money and never won a division OR he could have gone to the Mets (where he said he wanted to go before the 252 million dollar contract was signed). The Mets were ponying up 200 million, but Arod would have been happier. Instead, he signed his life away to Boras, as all of his clients are forced to go. (The Satan analogy is not lost on me.) When players sign with Boras, they forgo negotiating rights with teams. Boras handles it all. Why? Because a player will take less money to sign with a team he wants to play with, but for every dollar less he accepts, that costs X percentage. If X=10%, then that's 100 thousand dollars Boras loses for every million dollars less his client accepts. So, Arod breaks the bank, has some great years on a crappy team, then Texas trades him to the Yankees, and the rest is history.

Exhibit B: All players which don't get drafted because Boras represents them. This hurts their draft pick and their guaranteed money. Rick Ankiel comes to mind. If the Mets drafted Ankiel with the #6 overall pick, he makes more money. But they didn't draft him because of Boras. Ankiel ends up sliding to the 72nd pick, doesn't make a lot of money upfront, and ends up having a crappy career and never hits it big. He probably has to work when he's out of baseball now.

There are more exhibits, but I'll let you take it away. How about this: What's the max you would give him?


On a tip from my friend Dan around 12:45pm: http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/

Hopefully we get the details soon.

Details: 6 years, $52 million. Watch the video of Matsuzaka heading into Mass. General Hospital to get his physical last night. That is simply an AWESOME coat.

NFL: Week 14 Recap

My half of the agenda today: Saints, Pats, Tomlinson, NFC 6 seed. Add to it as you wish.

I'll start. I've got four words for you, Saj.

Why not the Saints?

They just went on the road and picked apart my NFC pick. They boast the same type of diverse offense that I praise the Cowboys for having. They are very well coached. Their defense is underrated. New Orleans is in a weak conference whose top team has a clear deficiency. And the Saints have the best storyline for a team since the 2001-2002 New England Patriots and 2001 New York Yankees - two teams that went to their championship, with the former winning and the latter coming within 5 minutes of winning.

So why not the Saints?


Because Tony Romo is not that good. Because the NFL is a strange place where the confluence of parity and small sample size can make absolutely anything possible on any given play of any given game. A two yard loss can turn into a 40 yard gain by virtue of defensive end being late to jump the count. A ride home at 12:30 two nights before a game can turn into a DWI if you take the highway instead of the backroads and have one or two extra shots an hour before leaving. As in life, much of what happens in football is serendipitous. I'm going to stop myself before I get all David Halberstam on you with some grandiose sports-life philosophizing, but it should be noted that a lot of things affect the outcome of a football game and not all of them have to do with the level of talent you have on the field.

Why the Saints? Because of Reggie Bush. He has quietly registered 1,000+ yards rushing and receiving this season, seen the endzone six times, and leads his team in receptions. He's such a dynamic talent, that defenses have to change the way they play the Saints, and this is a fact that is often forgotten. Drew Brees is a very good quarterback, so far the best to come out of that 2001 NFL Draft, but does he ever have a weapon in Bush.

I have more to say (I always have more to say) but let's move on to the Patriots. When they were awful for all those years, a 9-4 season would induce backflips from me. But we've been spoiled by a great, almost unparalleled considering the way the game has changed since the early 90's, run and this season has been just a little disappointing. They're a frustrating team to watch: good but just not good enough. It's been almost like watching 13 extra Red Sox games. And watching Bill Belicheck get outcoached is like seeing Clark Kent bleed in Superman II. At least Bill was wearing a shirt with a collar last week. That's a positive.


All those reasons you listed as to why the Saints can't win are exactly the reasons why they can. I'll just come out and ask you then. If you had to wager on which team wins the NFC, who do you take? I go Seahawks, with Saints, Cowboys, then Bears behind them.

That was an outstanding Belicheck-Superman comparison you made. Dead on. And yet, I've been so brainwashed by his success that I think he's trying to dupe the league right now into sleeping on the Pats. He knows we were never getting a first round bye, so what's the difference between the 3 and 4 seed? Nothing. And that's why Maroney and Watson won't play until they're 100% healthy.

Okay, enough spin. This Patriots team has issues. They're not a top 5 NFL team anymore. There, I said it.

Who are the NFL top teams?
1. San Diego - No holes. None. I don't think even Marty Schottenheimer can blow this in the playoffs. This is the team to beat.
2. Baltimore - The showing in Kansas City on Sunday proved it. This defense is ready for the playoffs. The Baltimore - San Diego rematch (week 2) for the AFC Championship (read: Superbowl) is going to be the game of the playoffs.
3 (tie) - Seattle and New Orleans. Whoever finishes with the higher seed is winning the conference.
5. Indianapolis - But I'd take several teams winning the Superbowl before them, like Chicago, New England, Dallas, Kansas City, and Ohio State.

Your top 5?

And how about a quick commentary on that 2001 Draft. Everyone was killing San Diego for dropping down out of the #1 pick and Mike Vick. So who did they get out of it instead? Ladanian Tomlinson (MVP this year) and Drew Brees (runner up MVP this year in New Orleans.) Yeah. I think they did all right. And now they got Philip Rivers and draft picks instead of Eli Manning. In the last 6-8 years, has their been two bigger named quarterbacks coming out of college than Brees and Manning? And San Diego had shots at both of them?! And traded out of that #1 pick on both of them?!! And they're about to win the Superbowl because of it?!!!


If you look at Michael Vick in 2001 and Eli Manning in 2004, it's not like the Chargers intentionally gave up on them. In 2001 there was a falling out between how much Vick wanted as the number one pick in the draft and how much the Chargers wanted to pay him, catalyzing the trade that gave him to Atlanta (and gave the Chargers Tim Dwight and two draft picks). In 2004 they wanted Eli Manning. He just didn't want them. For their troubles they got Philip Rivers, Shawne Merriman, and Nate Kaeding. Between the two trades they received draft picks that amounted to Tomlinson, Brees, Merriman, Kaeding, and the recently departed WR Reche Caldwell (free agent, signed by Patriots) and DB Tay Cody (released, signed by Wendy's). The moral at the end of this fable: if you have the first pick in the draft and there is a consensus number one pick for better (Peyton Manning) or worse (Eli Manning) and for some reason you do not want/cannot sign him, TRADE DOWN. See also: exactly what the Houston Texans did not do in 2006.

My top five:
1. San Diego - Agree with your assessment. They're playing better than they were in the beginning of the season, which is very good. But we'll see what happens in the playoffs.
2. Chicago - Despite all this talk about Rex Grossman's inconsistent play they've scored more points than anyone but San Diego. And their defense has given up the second least points in the league behind Baltimore. Sure, not the toughest schedule but they've beaten up on a few potentially playoff bound teams and they have Devin Hester. When you give up an average of 13 points a game, a kick returner that can give you seven at any time is a game changer.
3. Baltimore - Sterling defense and a quarterback, however washed up, who has been there before.
4. New Orleans - Reggie Bush?
5. Cincinnati - They're playing very well right now.

Honorable mention: Dallas - one game and you turn on them. Bring Bledsoe back?

Seattle and Indy? No way. One lost to Arizona and the other plays what I like to call the Pepto Bismol defense: it tries to fool you into thinking it can stop the run(s).

Football Friday: Week 14

Editors' note: Every week, these two idiots will play a Pick 'Em NFL game. The object is for each editor to pick four seemingly even NFL matchups from the upcoming weekend, challenging the other pick to the winners. A running record will be tallied. Feel free to play along at home. Leave comments with your own picks if you want to go on the record.

Standings (Week 13 in parentheses)

Ian 22-14 (3-1)
Saj 16-20 (2-2)

Can't waste any time accusing you of cheating or voodoo this morning, I have a meeting to get to. Here are your games you cheater:

Baltimore at Kansas City (Sunday, 1:00)

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (Sunday, 1:00)

Tennessee at Houston (Sunday, 1:00)

New Orleans at Dallas (Sunday, 8:15)

There were a number of games I thought you'd have trouble with this week so I just picked four of them. Plus I've never been so sure of the other 11 games on the schedule in the short life of this blog of ours. I'm feeling a 4-0 weekend, yes I am.


If by cheat you mean having immense perspicacity when it comes to the NFL, then guilty as charged. Four and oh, you say? Prove it, pal.

Philadelphia at Washington (Sunday, 1:00)

Minnesota at Detroit (Sunday, 1:oo)

Green Bay at San Francisco (Sunday, 4:05)

Chicago at St. Louis (Monday, 8:30)

Let's see it, Swami.


Very shrewd in not giving me the Chargers-Broncos game. Very shrewd. And I'm glad to see you didn't choose the Jets game for me.

PHILADELPHIA over Washington

Jeff Garcia is not an attractive man. That's a good thing, because I do not trust attractive men. They always break your heart. I also have a strange feeling that Garcia will lead these Eagles into the playoffs. But I don't trust strange feelings that have to do with unattractive men. I'm so confused. Um, let's just move on.

MINNESOTA over Detroit

Chester Taylor is listed as doubtful for this weekend, which definitely hurts the Vikings, but big ole' Steve Hutchinson will still be around to pass and run block, so I'm giving Minnesota the edge. Sidenote on Taylor: as of January 26th, he'll be a proud member of the University of Toledo hall of fame. Go Toledo Rockets!!

SAN FRANCISCO over Green Bay

If this game was in Green Bay, I might consider taking the Packers. But it's in California. Frank Gore will tear this terrible Packer defense apart and the 49ers will take another step towards contending for a playoff spot they have no business contending for. Their point differential is negative 110, second worst in the league to Tampa Bay. Translation: they'll find a way to beat Green Bay, Seattle, Arizona, and Denver in their last four games to grab the fifth seed in the playoffs.

ST. LOUIS over Chicago

Super upset spectacular of the day: The underdog Rams, at home, beat the Bears outright. With Tommie Harris, the Bears run-stuffing DT, out for at least Monday, I think Stephen Jackson has a big day. I also think I'm completely wrong about this pick.


Friday: I'll get to this tomorrow. Gotta go up and see the Celtics.

Saturday: Well, another Celtics close game, another loss down the stretch. Still, I enjoyed myself because I was yelling at Doc Rivers to do things, and then two possessions later he would do them. This included defensive switches, timeouts, and especially substitutions. I don't think I'd enjoy a competant coach as much, who would always be a step or two ahead of me instead of the other way around.

As for the NFL picks, why would I give you Denver-San Diego? This is Jay Cutler's second game against a non college defense, and as I've said so many times, Tom Brady's aren't that common. Or Philip Rivers'. Or Tony Romo's. Okay, maybe my "veteran quarterbacks on contending teams shouldn't be lifted for inexperienced quarterbacks during the season" rule is losing steam. Still, San Diego is playing too well right now, so you weren't getting that one.

As for the Jets, yes, that was a gift for you. It's in appreciation of you putting a counter at the bottom of this page.

Onto the picks...

Game 1: Baltimore @ Kansas City: Tough game to call. I usually prefer great defenses and great front sevens over good offenses and great runners...but I love great homefield advantage even more. It seems like some of the old school "stone cold locks" at home...the Lambeaus, the Foxboro's, the RCA's of the world...are no longer locks. I think the Chiefs now enjoy the best homefield advantage in football. Too bad they won't get a homegame in the first round of the playoffs, when I think this game will be played again but this time in Baltimore, where Herm Edwards will find some way to mismanage the clock down the stretch. But for now, take the homies. Pick: Kansas City

Game 2: Indianapolis @ Jacksonville: I'm calling this: Indy runs the table the rest of the regular season, people hop on the Colts bandwagon again, citing Peyton Manning's ability to outgun any team, and then they lose in the playoffs to the first team with a competant coach and running game. And then everyone will go "Ohhhhhh yeah. That's why I wasn't picking them a month ago!" Until then, take the defending regular season champs. Pick: Indianapolis

Game 3: Tennessee @ Houston: Houston is still a bottom feeder and Tennessee has been promoted to average team, but Houston often wins home games against average teams. Houston can't win anywhere but home. Still, I'll take Vince Young and his squad because I think the Titans have this laughable notion in the back of their minds that they can win out and make the playoffs. And to this laughable notion I say this: Ha! Picks: Tennessee

Game 4: New Orleans @ Dallas: This is the game of the week. These are two very good football teams. I'm in such an odd position with Dallas right now. I want them to do well despite them doing it without Bledsoe, because then if Romo gets hurt in the playoffs, Bledsoe can play in the playoffs one last time before he either A) retires or B) plays for Oakland or Detroit. But if the Cowboys cut Bledsoe or if he were to not be on the team for any reason, I'd be rooting against the Cowboys pretty hard. And this is despite my prediction before the season that they'd be a top team in the NFL, which everyone else if finally starting to realize, and they cite all the reasons I have listed for the last three or four months.

This game pits the two most revived franchises in the sport. I think New Orleans finshes as the 4 seed, while Dallas can be either the 2 or 3, so it's likely they're not facing each other in the playoffs. Too bad. If you asked the NFL, this would be the premier matchup they'd want to see in the NFC playoffs. The NFL's most hated team, though also the one with the biggest fan base in the Cowboys - against eveyone's 2nd favorite team this season in the Saints for the obvious reasons. They're both well coached, they each have likeable quarterbacks with strong interest stories, two dynamic running backs, an outspoken wide receiver, a young improving defense, and most important, loads of moxie.

For this matchup, I'm going to take the Saints and I'll tell you why. First, Tony Romo is due for a bad game. He just is. And the Cowboys better hope it happens before the playoffs. Second, Reggie Bush broke out last week and now he's on national television. So either A) He carries this team tomorrow night or B) The defense keys in on him realizing the threat he is, and Brees goes to other targets (Joe Horn) through the air. I like a scoring fest here. Take the over and take the Saints. Pick: New Orleans

Baseball: Red Sox sign D.L. Drew

The Red Sox signed JD Drew to a 5 year 70 million dollar deal - worthy of a superstar.

Where do I begin?

I hate this deal.

You cannot point out one year in JD Drew's career where he played like a 14 million dollar a year player. He's never - not once - been an All Star. He's never led the league in anything - not home runs, not runs, not rbi, not hitting, not walks, not OBP, and not OPS. He has no gold gloves.

He's consistently injured, averaging 118 games played in his eight full seasons. His top 3 home run seasons are 31, 27, and 20. Only once has he hit 100 RBI, and that was exactly 100. Only once has he scored more than 84 runs. Only twice has he hit more than 19 doubles. His last two seasons have seen him steal a combined three bases. His OBP, Slugging percentage, and thusly OPS have declined for three straight seasons.

And he's 31 years old and getting older. This means injuries will become more frequent. Moreover, at the age of 31, he's past the typical "breakout years" of the late 20's. It's highly improbable that he will break out without the use of illegal substances.

The Red Sox signed JD Drew to a 5 year 70 million dollar deal - worthy of a superstar. And he's not even a star.

I have more to say. Please give me your thoughts. Also, Julio Lugo for 9 million a year? What is going on? Did Steinbrenner buy us?


I spent the latter part of last night alternating between dry-heaving and trying to rationalize the J.D. Drew signing, and I think I've succeeded:

If you factor out the money the Red Sox paid, and the fact that they signed an injury-prone 31 year old with two years left of his "prime" to a five year contract, I like this signing. Drew has a .393 career OBP and plays plus defense. Coming up, he was hailed as the next Mickey Mantle. The man broke a ridiculous amount of collegiate records at Florida State. In his first month of major league duty he hit .417 with five homeruns. Sure he never played in more than 140 games in a season until 2004 due to a litany of injuries. And yes he was involved in that cash-grabbing contract dispute after being drafted by the Phillies in 1997. And, okay, he is represented by Scott Boras, an agent affectionately known as "The Baseball Antichrist." But why dwell on these minor issues? The man was hailed as the NEXT MICKEY MANTLE. He hit five homeruns in his first month in the major leagues! I'm sick of all these naysayers picking and choosing the stats that suit their argument.

Okay back to reality. The money matters (despite the fact that the Red Sox are spending it like it doesn't) but what matters more is the potential effect this signing has on the roster. Best case scenario he plays 145+ games a year and plays at or just below the value of the contract. And by value I am ignoring the ridiculous money that guys like Gary Matthews and Juan Pierre received earlier this year. Is J.D. Drew worth $25 million more than Juan Pierre? Sure. But that only makes him worth $25 million. Worst case scenario we have five years of a brittle right fielder on the wrong side of thirty patroling a physically demanding right field in Fenway Park. Don't try and tell me that Trot Nixon wouldn't have stayed healthier if he played right field for the Yankees or the Cubs. The money isn't the principle issue here, as proven by the $51.111... million bid just to speak to Matsuzaka. The issue here is having to deal with a potentially inconsistent headache who could turn into Shawn Green in a few years and has a reputation among fans, true or not, as a cash-grabbing primadonna.

Positive spin: Manny, if he stays, finally has the protection in that lineup he lost when Nomar was traded and Ortiz started hitting in front of him. We could see 100 homeruns between the two. After all, they hit 92 in 2005 with Kevin Millar getting the bulk of the at bats in the 5-hole.

And onto Julio Lugo, which I am actually even more upset about. Theo Epstein: if you're reading this, sign up for Netflix. Go ahead, its a great deal. For less than twenty bucks you can rent any three movies in their database at a time for as long as you want with unlimited rentals per month. And you even get a free two week trial period. Do it now, I'll wait. Finished? Okay, run a search for "Edgar Renteria." The 2-disc widescreen version. It could be under Comedy or Drama. Wait a day for it to arrive. Watch the movie. Now seal the return envelope they sent you and send it back. What did you learn? OBVIOUSLY YOU LEARNED NOTHING.

Now wait a year, watch Lugo commit 25 errors, and trade him and $10 million dollars to another team for a blue chip corner infield prospect. You still with me? Good. Then find a team flooded in young outfielders that has a 26 year old true leftfielder with a career .745 OPS named Frankenberry Jones they're trying to unload and send that blue chip prospect and a half decent reliever over for him. Force Frankenberry Jones to play centerfield and watch him struggle. Lather, rinse, repeat. Make sure to film the entire thing and sell it to Miramax as "Edgar Renteria 2: The Rise of Lugo."

I'd get into Matsuzaka but that was emotionally taxing and I think I have a stomach ulcer.


Yes, we can talk ourselves into JD Drew. Red Sox fans could talk themselves into just about anything. You talked yourself into Matt Clement ("He has good stuff"). I talked myself into Josh Beckett ("He was so good in the Series!") Between us, we could talk ourselves into Johnny Pesky making a comeback ("He made such great contact, you don't need youth for that!")

But ultimately, I refuse to believe there was another team offering similar money. I refuse to believe this signing couldn't get done at 4 years 52 million. Who would have given him more money?

Why have the Red Sox turned into a team that doesn't care about money? Why couldn't Johnny Damon be signed two seasons ago? He didn't need that kind of money. And he was a centerfielder, a table setter, great in the clubhouse, and played through numerous injuries. He worked his ass off for this team. Will Nancy Drew do the same? I'm not sure.

And when I'm not sure when considering a purchase, I tend not to spend 70 million dollars on it.

As for Lugo, you were spot on. We've been down this road before. Boston got rid of Cabrera to spend more money on Renteria, when Cabrera was more than adequate. Now Gonzalez has a perfectly adequate year, including the best defense Fenway has seen at that position in my lifetime. Shortstop was not a hole on this team. Relief pitching is, and they don't even have a closer nor a reliable set up man besides Timlin, and soon we won't be able to call the aging Timlin a reliable anything. Yet the Sox spend three times as much money on Lugo than they would have on A-Gon. I can't explain it.

So if the Sox want to throw risky money around, why not bring in Gagne?


If the Red Sox do end up signing Gagne, and I think they will, it might turn out to be the best valued signing of the offseason for them. Yes, Gagne is an injury risk, having only pitched 15 innings in the last two years, and yes, he's asking for at least $5 million, but the potential payoff is phenomenal. He'll be thirty in January and in his three full seasons as a closer he did not post an ERA higher than 2.19. In 2003 he won the NL Cy Young Award and was the first reliever to do it since Dennis Eckersley's MVP season in 1992. And with more innings pitched, saves, strikeouts, and a better park-adjusted ERA+ it can be argued that Gagne's 2003 season was the best ever by a reliever, including that guy in the Bronx.

If Gagne is healthy, a big if I will admit, he can and will dominate. The luxury of taking this sort of risk on a relief pitcher is that if he is not healthy, or if he underperforms, the Red Sox can bury him in their bullpen eating 5th and 6th innings. If J.D. Drew, your starting rightfielder, hits .250 with four homeruns through July, there's nowhere to stash him. And you get all this for less than than the Yankees are paying Kyle Farnsworth. Sign me up.

P.S. Good article by Seth Mnookin regarding the idiocy of general managers.

NFL: Week 13 Recap

Nothing says "what the f***?" like Jeff Garcia throwing for 300+ yards and three touchdowns on Monday Night Football against the Carolina Panthers. I mean seriously. What the f***? Starting now I am officially not surprised by anything. I mean it. My male roommate could tell me he was impregnated by a sterile shemale transvestite cyborg and I don't think it would phase me. The NFL is a nutty place and I am afraid of it sometimes.

And speaking of afraid, how about the AFC playoff picture after Week 13? Kansas City and Denver losing and Cincinnati, New York (Jets), and Jacksonville winning leaves FIVE 7-5 teams for two playoff spots. Not only that, but those five teams are behind the four division leaders by at least two games and ahead of everyone else by the same margin. What you have here is a three tiered AFC: the division leaders, the playoff hopefuls, and everyone else. So clean cut and tidy. That is, of course, until you start thinking of tie-breaking scenarios and your brain shuts down.

Thoughts on the NFC playoff picture and the week that was?


If you look at it, BOTH conferences are three tiered with almost identical number of teams per tier.
AFC four Division winners: Indy, Pats, Chargers, Ravens.
NFC four Division winners: Chicago, Dallas, Saints, Seattle
AFC five teams for two spots: Jax, Cincy, Jets, Chiefs, Broncos at 7-5.
NFC four teams for two spots: Phily, Giants, Atlanta, Carolina at 6-6.
AFC has seven teams out of it.
NFC has eight teams out of it.

The NFC is more intriguing for two reasons. First, the teams are so much more inconsistent and mediocre that anything can happen. Second, and this is what I'll be writing about today, there are loads of head-to-head matchups involving those four NFC teams. I find it incredibly difficult to rank those four teams in probability of making the playoffs.

Carolina always finishes strong and Delhomme to Smith is one of the deadliest hookups in the sport. However, their schedule has them hosting the Giants and Steelers these next two weeks. Then the Panthers close with two road games in Atlanta AND New Orleans. That's a tough closing schedule. Rmember that they host the Giants and travel to Atlanta in two head-to-head matchups between three of these four teams. This is a theme.

Atlanta is interesting. We were both high on them earlier in the year, but then the headbird of the dirty birds gave his fans the dirty bird and now everyone involved feels dirty. Their schedule is also tough, going to Tampa, then hosting Dallas and Carolina, then finishing in Philadelphia. The Falcons host Carolina then play in Philly on the last two weeks of the season. Those will be immense games.

Philadelphia is weird, and I don't just mean the city itself. Losing McNabb hurt, but Jeff Garcia is probably the second best backup quarterback in the league. That win over Carolina last night was huge. However, I don't know if they can keep it up. They have road games the next three weeks, going to all of their NFC East rivals' home buildings. Then they welcome in the Falcons on the last week of the season. So the Eagles played Carolina last night, they play the Giants in Week 15, and the Falcons in Week 17...all of the 6-6 teams. Crazy. If they beat the Giants and Falcons, they can lose their other two games. They'll make the playoffs at 8-8.

The Giants play two of the 6-6 teams in the next two weeks. This weekend they go to Carolina in the game of the week, and then host Phily the week after. They close hosting New Orleans then traveling to Washington. Not a slouch schedule at all.

It's enough to make one's head pull a Linda Blair. I was going to rank the Panthers as the most likely to make the playoff simply because of talent and reputation, until I realized their conference record doesn't match up very well against the other contenders. A quick peak at the conference records show the Giants and Eagles at 3 losses, while the Falcons are at 4, and Panthers are at 5. So I just don't know anymore.

I'll go on the record with my prediction later today. I've already figured it out, but I want to see yours first because I am frequently emulated.

I can't get over all these head-to-head matchups between these four teams. Considering that head-to-head is the first tie breaker, that makes these games THAT much more significant. One of these teams is going to get in on the last week of the season because of a head-to-head. At least one.

So how about it? Who's coming out the NFC?


I feel like every week we make a prediction about which team is going to grab the two wildcard spots. And every week our predictions are different. Last week I said it would be the Giants and the Rams. Of course the Rams lost to the now 3-9 Cardinals and that prediction looks really stupid. And speaking of the Rams, they're only one game back of the four 6-6 teams, as are the Vikings and the 49ers. With the orgy of head to head matchups in the next four weeks it's not unlikely that one of these teams sneaks into the playoffs.

In keeping with the spirit of picking different teams every week to make the playoffs, this week my teams are Atlanta and San Francisco. Remember, you heard it here FIRST. Just kidding: New York and St. Louis.


In your defense, last week, I forced you to choose a 5-6 team that is most likely to make the playoffs. You went with St. Louis. That wasn't your actual pick for the playoffs. *End defense of Saj.* However, I don't see how the Rams became your actual pick after a loss.

Also, we're stuck by our picks. We have both saw the Giants and Carolina as the last two teams, yes? I know I have. They remain my picks. I think the Eagles come up short. I think the Giants and Falcons finish the year tied, giving the G-Men the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to their win in Atlanta earlier in the season. And I think Carolina doesn't lose again until it's safe to lose. What I mean by that is they win out to get to 10 wins unless they only need 9.

What I think this sets up is an NFC first round divisional rival extraveganza. I see Seattle winning out and they have the common opponent tie-breaker over the Cowboys. Therefore, the Seahawks hve that 2nd seed. Thus, in the first round, Dallas will host the Giants and the Saints will host the Panthers.

Football Friday: Week 13

Editors' note: Every week, these two idiots will play a Pick 'Em NFL game. The object is for each editor to pick four seemingly even NFL matchups from the upcoming weekend, challenging the other pick to the winners. A running record will be tallied. Feel free to play along at home. Leave comments with your own picks if you want to go on the record.

Standings (Week 11 in parenthesis)
Ian 19-13 (1-3)
Saj 14-18 (3-1)


Week 11 was my first sub .500 week of the season. Some might argue I'm losing my touch. Others might argue I never had touch to begin with. I argue that all three of my losses that week were flukes. To each his own.

Time to get back on the wagon. Saj, your picks for the weekend:

Atlanta at Washington (Sunday, 1:00)

Houston at Oakland (Sunday, 4:05)

Miami at Jacksonville (Sunday, 4:05)

Seattle at Denver (Sunday, 8:15)

And I have a specific prediction for bonus points. I like the Bengals over the Ravens by 6 this week.


I'm 14-18 and that includes a 3-1 week last week. I'm so bad at this. And speaking of non-sensical segues and unexpected pregnancy in television shows: why don't more television characters that find themselves unexpectedly pregnant consider an abortion? I know it's a difficult and very real decision, but it never even crosses their minds sometimes. It's the conservative media, I am telling you.

Anyway, here are your picks:

Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh (Sunday, 4:15)

New York Jets at Green Bay (Sunday, 1:oo)

Dallas at New York Giants (Sunday, 4:15)

Arizona at St. Louis (Sunday, 1:00)

Easy picks for you, I think. You're running away with this thing, just don't choke.


I hope you noticed that I didn't give you the Jets, even though I know they'll win this weekend. Remember this when you buy your big house in New London and I need a place to stay. In this slate bestowed upon me, I see two gimmies and two toughies. Both gimmies are at 1:00, so I'm going to be 2-0 heading into the afternoon. It's a comforting thought.

Game 1: NY Jets @ Green Bay: At this point, the Jets are who they are. They'll beat teams worse than them, and lose to teams better than them. Only one exception to that rule has occured all year, and unfortunately that was against the superior Patriots. That win has kept them as a technical AFC contender, though anyone who knows anything knows they aren't an actual contender for anything but Best Football Team to Play in Giants Stadium. This game will settle one thing and one thing only: Which is the worst division in football? It's either the NFC North or the AFC East, and I personally think the AFC East is leaving the NFC North in the dust. Pick: New York

Game 2: Arizona @ St. Louis: (Random thought - How many people will be momentarily confused when the announcer says "The Cardinals" and he means Arizona?) How is Arizona worse than in recent years? They supposedly signed their best back in franchise history in Edgerin James. Their dynamic young receiving duo is a year more experienced. They have a talented quarterback with an excellent prep pedigree. They have an experienced coach. The thing is, I knew Arizona would be bad this year. How? Because they're the Arizona Cardinals. Until they prove otherwise, their situation is one not conducive to a succesful football franchise. At 2-9, their season is long gone. St. Louis, however, is the team chosen as most likely to be the sixth seed if the Giants continue to fall apart. The Rams are alive. A 4-1 record the rest of the way might get them in, and with home games against Arizona and Washington, and road games against Oakland and Minnesota, that is not out of the question. Translation: The St. Louis Rams have a lot more to play for than the Arizona Cardinals. Pick: St. Louis

Game 3: Tampa Bay @ Pittsburgh: Hey, it's two of the last three Superbowl Champions!! Wow, what a rare opportunity to see football titans of opposing conferences face off in midseason. What a treat! Uh oh, the captain just turned on the No Sarcasm sign. Anyway, the inconsistencies of these two teams make this a difficult matchup to pick. I'll take the Steelers for two reasons. 1) Homefield and 2) They won a couple of games before being bludgeoned by the Ravens defense last week. (A concern of mine is that they can't come back from that. Perhaps the Steelers offense is on no sleep after being kept awake all week, thanks to a combination of nightmares and pain.) Tampa has lost four of their last five. Pick: Pittsburgh.

Game 4: Dallas @ NY Giants: Game of the Week. I expect the Giants to play very well this week. If they lose, I think they end up being a .500 team. If they win, they might make a run at ten wins and the five seed, and they can pray Dallas trips up down the stretch to also finish at ten wins, giving the Giants the division with the head-to-head sweep. This would mean a homegame as well as a chance to avoid the Bears until the AFC Championship. On the other side, you have the Dallas Cowboys, who are playing as well as anyone in the conference. They are finally playing like the team I expected. Unfortunately, I cannot pinpoint a single reason why their season turned around. I can't think of any changes they made that turned this team into a legit contender. This should be a hard fought, close game. I'd take the Giants plus the points if that were an option here, but since it's not, I'll take the Boys in a great game. Pick: Dallas.


I hate to say this, but you might go 4-0 this week. Of course if I think you're right then you're probably wrong. Some intense reverse psychology going on here. On to my picks.

ATLANTA over WASHINGTON

Is Michael Vick sorry about flipping off some fans in the Georgia Dome last weekend? No. Should Michael Vick be sorry about flipping off some fans in the Georgia Dome last weekend? No. Should he have been forced to apologize? Yes. Should the NFL have fined him and made him contribute to a charity of his choice? Yes. It's all part of the game; the illusion that these egregiously talented and self-serving athletes (sweeping generalization, there are always exceptions) are role models. They aren't. But if Mike Vick wants to sell Gatorade and Nike shoes and No. 7 jerseys he better apologize and he better donate $5,000 of his $130 million to the family of a firefighter. Even better for taking the focus off his double fingered salute to the heckling hometown crowd: winning a football game.

HOUSTON over OAKLAND

Yes, I am picking the Houston Texans on the road against an Oakland team that put up a pretty good fight against the Chargers in San Diego last week. Shut up. All of you just shut up.

MIAMI over JACKSONVILLE

Sooner or later I knew that I would be right about the Miami Dolphins. I'm not sure what steroid cocktail Nick Saban has Jason Taylor on, but he's playing like one of the best defensive linemen in the league again. And Joey Harrington is making some incredible passes. His first touchdown on Thanksgiving was a perfectly timed dart that sliced between two Lions and hit Randy McMichael in the endzone. On top of that, the Dolphins are playing with a few days extra rest against a Jacksonville team that has an enigmatic inability to beat teams with a losing record. If they were playing in the NFC they'd be my pick for the sixth spot in the playoffs. Alas, leapfrogging any two of Cincinnati, Denver, and Kansas City in the playoff race will prove too difficult for them. Especially since they still have to play New England and Indianapolis, the latter in the RCA Dome.

DENVER over SEATTLE

Very difficult to pick this game, lots of variables. In Seattle's favor, Jay Cutler is getting his first NFL start. In Denver's favor, it's almost impossible for Cutler to play any worse than Jake Plummer- like walking on water impossible. Which means that only Jesus could play worse than Jake Plummer has played this season. Jesus and those snakes that can slither across ponds. In Seattle's favor, the Denver defense has given up an average of 24.2 points over their last five games and for the season they've given up over a 100 yards rushing per game. In Denver's favor, this is only the second game back for both Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander. In Seattle's favor, Alexander ran for 200 yards and looked great last week against Green Bay. In Denver's favor, Hasselbeck had three interceptions and a completion percentage below 50% in the same game. In Seattle's favor, "Real World: Seattle" featured a Jewish black man bitch slapping a white girl with Lyme disease. In Denver's favor, "Real World: Denver" features a love triangle AND two girls making out IN THE FIRST EPISODE. That pretty much seals it for Denver.

Is talking about the Real World too much of a Bill Simmons thing? I say yes, but we're Simmons' clones anyway, for better or for worse. (for worse)