NFL: Week 14 Recap

My half of the agenda today: Saints, Pats, Tomlinson, NFC 6 seed. Add to it as you wish.

I'll start. I've got four words for you, Saj.

Why not the Saints?

They just went on the road and picked apart my NFC pick. They boast the same type of diverse offense that I praise the Cowboys for having. They are very well coached. Their defense is underrated. New Orleans is in a weak conference whose top team has a clear deficiency. And the Saints have the best storyline for a team since the 2001-2002 New England Patriots and 2001 New York Yankees - two teams that went to their championship, with the former winning and the latter coming within 5 minutes of winning.

So why not the Saints?


Because Tony Romo is not that good. Because the NFL is a strange place where the confluence of parity and small sample size can make absolutely anything possible on any given play of any given game. A two yard loss can turn into a 40 yard gain by virtue of defensive end being late to jump the count. A ride home at 12:30 two nights before a game can turn into a DWI if you take the highway instead of the backroads and have one or two extra shots an hour before leaving. As in life, much of what happens in football is serendipitous. I'm going to stop myself before I get all David Halberstam on you with some grandiose sports-life philosophizing, but it should be noted that a lot of things affect the outcome of a football game and not all of them have to do with the level of talent you have on the field.

Why the Saints? Because of Reggie Bush. He has quietly registered 1,000+ yards rushing and receiving this season, seen the endzone six times, and leads his team in receptions. He's such a dynamic talent, that defenses have to change the way they play the Saints, and this is a fact that is often forgotten. Drew Brees is a very good quarterback, so far the best to come out of that 2001 NFL Draft, but does he ever have a weapon in Bush.

I have more to say (I always have more to say) but let's move on to the Patriots. When they were awful for all those years, a 9-4 season would induce backflips from me. But we've been spoiled by a great, almost unparalleled considering the way the game has changed since the early 90's, run and this season has been just a little disappointing. They're a frustrating team to watch: good but just not good enough. It's been almost like watching 13 extra Red Sox games. And watching Bill Belicheck get outcoached is like seeing Clark Kent bleed in Superman II. At least Bill was wearing a shirt with a collar last week. That's a positive.


All those reasons you listed as to why the Saints can't win are exactly the reasons why they can. I'll just come out and ask you then. If you had to wager on which team wins the NFC, who do you take? I go Seahawks, with Saints, Cowboys, then Bears behind them.

That was an outstanding Belicheck-Superman comparison you made. Dead on. And yet, I've been so brainwashed by his success that I think he's trying to dupe the league right now into sleeping on the Pats. He knows we were never getting a first round bye, so what's the difference between the 3 and 4 seed? Nothing. And that's why Maroney and Watson won't play until they're 100% healthy.

Okay, enough spin. This Patriots team has issues. They're not a top 5 NFL team anymore. There, I said it.

Who are the NFL top teams?
1. San Diego - No holes. None. I don't think even Marty Schottenheimer can blow this in the playoffs. This is the team to beat.
2. Baltimore - The showing in Kansas City on Sunday proved it. This defense is ready for the playoffs. The Baltimore - San Diego rematch (week 2) for the AFC Championship (read: Superbowl) is going to be the game of the playoffs.
3 (tie) - Seattle and New Orleans. Whoever finishes with the higher seed is winning the conference.
5. Indianapolis - But I'd take several teams winning the Superbowl before them, like Chicago, New England, Dallas, Kansas City, and Ohio State.

Your top 5?

And how about a quick commentary on that 2001 Draft. Everyone was killing San Diego for dropping down out of the #1 pick and Mike Vick. So who did they get out of it instead? Ladanian Tomlinson (MVP this year) and Drew Brees (runner up MVP this year in New Orleans.) Yeah. I think they did all right. And now they got Philip Rivers and draft picks instead of Eli Manning. In the last 6-8 years, has their been two bigger named quarterbacks coming out of college than Brees and Manning? And San Diego had shots at both of them?! And traded out of that #1 pick on both of them?!! And they're about to win the Superbowl because of it?!!!


If you look at Michael Vick in 2001 and Eli Manning in 2004, it's not like the Chargers intentionally gave up on them. In 2001 there was a falling out between how much Vick wanted as the number one pick in the draft and how much the Chargers wanted to pay him, catalyzing the trade that gave him to Atlanta (and gave the Chargers Tim Dwight and two draft picks). In 2004 they wanted Eli Manning. He just didn't want them. For their troubles they got Philip Rivers, Shawne Merriman, and Nate Kaeding. Between the two trades they received draft picks that amounted to Tomlinson, Brees, Merriman, Kaeding, and the recently departed WR Reche Caldwell (free agent, signed by Patriots) and DB Tay Cody (released, signed by Wendy's). The moral at the end of this fable: if you have the first pick in the draft and there is a consensus number one pick for better (Peyton Manning) or worse (Eli Manning) and for some reason you do not want/cannot sign him, TRADE DOWN. See also: exactly what the Houston Texans did not do in 2006.

My top five:
1. San Diego - Agree with your assessment. They're playing better than they were in the beginning of the season, which is very good. But we'll see what happens in the playoffs.
2. Chicago - Despite all this talk about Rex Grossman's inconsistent play they've scored more points than anyone but San Diego. And their defense has given up the second least points in the league behind Baltimore. Sure, not the toughest schedule but they've beaten up on a few potentially playoff bound teams and they have Devin Hester. When you give up an average of 13 points a game, a kick returner that can give you seven at any time is a game changer.
3. Baltimore - Sterling defense and a quarterback, however washed up, who has been there before.
4. New Orleans - Reggie Bush?
5. Cincinnati - They're playing very well right now.

Honorable mention: Dallas - one game and you turn on them. Bring Bledsoe back?

Seattle and Indy? No way. One lost to Arizona and the other plays what I like to call the Pepto Bismol defense: it tries to fool you into thinking it can stop the run(s).