NFL: Week 16 Recap

What in the name of Science is going on?

Has anyone who doesn't get paid for it taken a look at the clinching scenarios? How about the wild playoff standings that show 20 of the 32 NFL teams still alive heading into the last week? It's crazier than a caffeinated Tom Cruise. One scenario paints this picture beautifully.

The Packers have five clinching scenarios, four of which are unique from each other. The most likely scenario alone is enough to make ones head look like that bald guy at the end of Raiders of the Lost Arc. Try to follow along as I try to articulate the language of nonsense into the more familiar language of gibberish.

The New York Giants and Green Bay Packers are currently the 6th and 7th teams in the NFC, respectively. Only the top 6 get in. So, one would assume if they both won, then the Giants would stay at 6 and get in, while the Packers would stay at 7 and be the first team out. However, this is not necessarily the case.

The reason the Giants get in over the Packers is because the Giants win the 3rd tiebreaker - record against common opponents, or teams that both New York and Green Bay have played. The Giants have one more win against common opponents than the Packers (Laughably, it turns out the Giants have one win against common opponents and the Packers have zero). The catch is that in Week 17, the Packers play one such common opponents - the Chicago Bears. The Giants play a non-common opponent in the Washington Redskins. Therefore, the Packers can make up that game in the last week. So, since we're assuming they both win and remain tied in their overall record, the Packers tie the Giants in the 3rd tiebreaker. That means it goes to the 4th tiebreaker - strength of victory. And, as Saj himself put it so eloquently last night: "What does that even mean?"

Neither of us are sure, but I'm fairly certain it's the equivilent of the BCS' margin of victory. And according to everything I can find, this tiebreaker is still up in the air. I suspect, considering the sizeable fanbases of the G-Men and Pack, that there will be a lot of number crunching by ESPN and the like to figure out what has to happen this weekend if both teams win.

I'll turn it over to you Saj. Thoughts on the NFL right now? How about our beloved Patriots and their possible playoff road? (We can finally talk about it now that the Pats clinched.)


Before I get into the NFL, I want to discuss something vastly more important: the dangers of fantasy football. If you have been reading this blog for the past months then you know that for a period of time Jon Kitna was the starting quarterback for both of my fantasy football teams. Jon Kitna. That should give you an idea of how my seasons went. But somehow I ended up, to Ian's chagrin, in the title game of our league this past weekend. And in true Saj form I overthought my starters and benched Trent Green, Chris Chambers, Reggie Bush and the Minnesota defense for Alex Smith, Braylon Edwards, Ronnie Brown and St. Louis, a -32 point swing in a week where I lost by THREE POINTS.

But the worst part about that loss was that I was completely engrossed in watching that trainwreck of a Monday night game between the Jets and the Dolphins. And THAT is the true danger of fantasy football. It will compel even the most honorable and stoic of men to degrade themselves by watching three hours of the most horrendous football games. That game was so bad Kornheiser and Theisman had to force themselves to trade barbs. It was like the sloppy play, Kornheiser's seasonal depression, and Theisman's probable drinking problem just took the fight out of them. It was painful to watch (but I'm glad I DVR'ed it).

Thoughts on the NFL that I think I think (apologies, Peter King)
1. I can never correctly gauge the Patriots. They always look terrible to me in games like the one they played in Jacksonville, but they still won. Not a single turnover against a pretty good Jacksonville defense, domination of the time of possession, over a 100 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns, and a 71% completion rate for Tom Brady. But the Patriots still only won by three and Jacksonville was marching for at least the game-tying field goal until Jarvis Green forced David Garrard to fumble in the waning minutes. I just can't tell how good this team is or how they'll play against good teams in the playoffs. To be fair I could never tell that about any team, but still. Sidenote on Scobee: If Josh Scobee, the Jacksonville kicker, had made a 50+ yard field goal to send the game into overtime I would have won my fantasy league but the Patriots may not have won the game to clinch their division. To make an offensive and barely apt analogy, it would have felt like Sophie's choice.
2. I hope with all of my heart that the Green Bay Packers make the playoffs. They were 4-8 three weeks ago and now they have a better shot of making it than Atlanta, Carolina, or St. Louis. Just one game against a Chicago team that has nothing to play for and some convoluted voodoo math re: the Giants is between Brett Favre and the playoffs. This may be crazy, but in the terrible NFC the Packers could win a few games in the postseason.
3. Jeff Garcia looked PHENOMENAL against the Cowboys and Tony Romo looked like a guy from Eastern Illinois who went undrafted.
4. Terrell Owens needs to realize that if his hands won't allow him to catch the football, the Cowboys will stop throwing to him.
5. ESPN needs to cool it with the video montages they play before the Monday Night Football games. Last night's game started off with a dramatization of a young child dreaming about the Jets scoring a touchdown on Christmas with the voiceover work obviously done by a 45 year old woman. Then Kiefer Sutherland showed up and rather intensely informed us that he was ready for some football and asked if we were as well. Finally they played their standard over-saturated introduction. It was like an 8 year old's art project after he/she had recently discovered glitter glue. And all of this pales in comparison to their alternate Hank Williams introduction with Silvo Dante on guitar and Angela Bassett playing Little Richard. And ESPN did so well with those brilliant "Is it Monday Yet?" television spots. At least they didn't commission Pink to sing a terrible song over some B-rate computer generated graphics. SO MANY LINKS!!!
6. Saw a mock MLB fantasy draft on Yahoo. When do pitchers and catchers report again?


Damn, you, Saj. I was going to use the pitchers and catchers line...only I was going to wait until the Pats were defeated in the playoffs! What the hell are you doing? The Pats are alive and well. There is no team the Patriots cannot defeat when they are healthy. Still, some roads to the Superbowl are easier than others. There are two teams the Patriots can face in the first round - The Denver Broncos and the New York Jets. Either game would take place in Foxboro. Which would you rather see?

Was that Romo line a thickly veiled plea to see Drew Bledsoe at the helm again? It's not as crazy as it sounds. The Cowboys are starting to put forth that lackadaisical effort that we were seeing earlier in the year. When they went to Romo, the excitable rookie who the team could rally around, all players, in every facet of the game, picked up their effort. Now, with the team once again needing an adrenelin push, couldn't they turn to the likeable, cagey veteran who the team could rally around? Remember when Brady got hurt in that Steelers AFC Championship game? Bill Simmons himself said that the Pats would not have won that Steeler game if Brady didn't get hurt. Bledsoe was the wildcard that kicked the team in gear.

Anyway, Parcells going back to Bledsoe is not as crazy as it sounds. What do you think?

Finally, a though on Jeff Garcia and those Philadelphia Eagles. I'd like to point out that they did something I'm almost positive no other team did this year. They just won three road games in three weeks. Not only that, they were all division opponents. They just defeated the Redskins, Giants, and Cowboys in front of each of their respective home fans. You just don't see that in the NFL. Is there any team in football that you would pick to defeat all three division rivals on the road in three straight weeks? I wouldn't. Not the Pats, not the Bears, not the Chargers. Hats off to the Eagles.

Which gets me to my larger point. For the Eagles-Cowboys matchup yesterday, I said the team that won that game plays the Bears in the NFC Championship. I firmly believed that then and I firmly believe that now. The Eagles are going to be the 3rd seed, win a home game, then go on the road to play the Saints, where they lost by three points when they weren't playing nearly as well and the Saints were playing much better. The Eagles are proving to be an excellent road team down the stretch. Everyone has stepped up in the absence of Owens and now McNabb. Watch out for Philadelphia!


On Eagles: If your home stadium was in Philadelphia, you'd be a better road team too.

On Bledsoe: Not Romo's fault that the Cowboys couldn't punch the ball in from the 1 yard line with three attempts. Not even an attempt at a QB sneak. And the whole time John Madden is playing the part of the old curmudgeon lamenting about how the young guys don't go with the play actionpass nowadays like they should.

On Broncos or Jets: I could see the Patriots beating either of these teams, but when it comes down to it I'd rather see the Broncos. Denver's defense isn't playing as well as it had been earlier in the season and they'll have a rookie QB on the road in the playoffs. While the Jets really, really suck, we can't forget about Mangini- he's a dour expression and mustard-stained sweatshirt away from morphing into Bill Belichick. Nobody wants to play Belicheck in the playoffs, especially Belichick.


I'm eating major crow on the Jets. I never thought they had a shot at the playoffs, and now they're a win over the hapless Raiders away from getting in. I think it ultimately comes down to this: The AFC East was never as bad as we thought it would be. The Dolphins and Bills were tough outs down the stretch. They'll both finish within a game or two of .500, and that's after having to play the Pats and the Jets twice each. Only two divisions per conference get two playoff teams, and the AFC East was one of them.

So not only are the Jets going to make it, but you could make the case they deserve to. They rolled with some punches, knocked off the Pats, played big down the stretch, and won their winnable games - ugly or nay. They're probably one and done in the playoffs, but they still overachieved because they have a coach and team that worked their ass off. Watch out for the AFC East next year. Three teams will be battling for the playoffs.

I think you're crazy to want to see the Broncos more than the Jets. Can you imagine if there was a team that the Patriots defeated in the playoffs last year AND in the regular season for years and years, and one their fans came up to you and said they wanted to see the Pats in the playoffs this year? You'd laugh in their face. That's us and the Broncos. The Broncos, for whatever reason, play the Pats very well every year. They always give Brady problems. Homefield, time of year, health of players, it doesn't matter. The Broncos play the Pats well every single year in every single scenario. So if they beat the Patriots in round 1, I don't want anyone surprised. They scare me. Bring on the Jets. Mangini may be the next Belichick, but Belichick is the current Belichick.

How about after the first round? Would you want to travel to San Diego, Baltimore, or Indianapolis?


Baltimore. I don't like our chances outscoring Indy and I don't like our chances in stopping Tomlinson. Baltimore may have the best defense in the AFC, but we can win a 13-10 game. I don't think we can win a 37-31 game.