Roger Clemens: Greedy Villain or Villainously Greedy

How long until Yankee fans plunge off Cloud Nine, and while hurdling at an ever quickening speed towards the earth, realize that Roger Clemens is not a parachute?

How long before they realize he never pitched more than seven innings last year for the Houston Astros, and only pitched seven innings five times? How long before they realize that their bullpen is taxed enough? That bringing in a 5-6 inning pitcher is not a good idea?

How long before they realize that the best hitting opponent in the NL Central last year (St. Louis Cardinals) was ranked 14th in major league baseball in batting average, with the other four teams ranked 26th and lower?

How long before they realize his five years with the Yankees produced ERA's not of the 2.98, 1.87, 2.30 variety that he earned in Houston, but of 4.60, 3.70, 3.51, 4.35, and 3.91, and that was in his late 30's?

In sum, with Clemens at 44 (45 in August), how long until they realize he's returning to the AL East, with better lineups both in the division and the American League, needing to throw more pitches (quality ones at that) than he did in the NL, thereby throwing less innings, thereby making the Yankees' bullpen throw more innings, thereby tiring them out by September and October, when the lineups become even tougher? How long until they realize they spent a record contract to get a 44-year-old with all of the above going against him?

Saj, come November, will the Yankees organization and will Yankee fans be happy they made this signing?


Sure, why not? I'm not a fatalist but I do think it was inevitable that Roger Clemens would pitch in a Yankees uniform this season. After an April like they had Roger's theatrical 7th inning announcement on Sunday was a foregone conclusion. But how much does this really help the Yankees? Very little I say. But that very little could be important. Let's say that Roger's value over a replacement player (say Igawa, Karstens, etc.) is probably less than people are saying. He's still a 6 inning pitcher and even if those six innings are very good that's still three your beleaguered bullpen will have to pitch. Best case scenario: Roger, from June 1 until the end of the season, is worth one to four more wins than a replacement pitcher. That doesn't seem like a lot, and it isn't. But if you're the Yankees and you're competing for a division title, four wins at the top side of the bell curve can be huge. This all goes back to the marginal cost of wins in baseball: as you get closer to the top of the league for each win you will have to pay more. Apparently the Yankees think that paying Roger between $5 million and $20 million a win is a worthwhile investment- not to mention keeping those wins away from the Red Sox.

That being said, Clemens landed where he should have landed. Plain and simple, he would have helped the Red Sox, with their great (so far, knock on wood) pen and their big three starters, much less than he will help the Yankees, especially if you consider Lester vs. Igawa/Karstens as the replacement players. Why not go somewhere where a large segment of the fans don't hate you and you could potentially be the best pitcher on the staff instead of the fourth best? This is all a moot point anyway, Clemens won't even be a top ten pitcher in the American League, let alone all of baseball.