Baseball: NLCS and World Series

7:04 AM
I: I know it's your turn to give the picks first, but I just want to get some baseball out of the way.

That was a truly fantastic Game 7. Not only was it a good game, it was quite representative of a wacky postseason. Examples:

• There have been six series played thus far this post season. The underdog has won five of them. Only in the Mets-Dodgers series has the favorite come out on top. Tony LaRussa will surely share this with his club.
• The Tigers and the Cardinals were arguably the worst playoff team from their respective league, and inarguably playing the worst baseball of any playoff teams heading into the playoffs. I brought this up before the NLCS began, when the Tigers were rolling, as a hope for Cardinals fans.
• If you were to tell the Cardinals that, in the NLCS, Pujols would have one RBI and the Cardinals would lose both Chris Carpenter starts...they'd immediately turn their thoughts to the Rams.
• John Maine and Oliver Perez start Game 6 and 7 back to back in a Championship Series???
• If you were to tell the Mets that John Maine would pitch 5 scoreless in Game 6 and Oliver Perez would go 6 innings of one-run ball in Game 7, they'd say "book us tickets to Detroit."
• Oliver Perez will really dissapoint Mets fans next year...but he was magnificent until that Rolen at bat.
• Endy Chavez robbing the Rolen homerun was the best play I have seen in a long time. (I actually slapped my forehead while alone in my room and noticed my mouth agape.) If the Mets had won the game, it would go down as perhaps the greatest defensive play in baseball history; maybe second to Willie Mays at the Polo Grounds. The Chavez play, especially considering the double play, was probably the better play, but the Mays Catch was in the World Series.
• Jeff Suppan was the NLCS MVP. And deservedly so.

As for the World Series itself, my quick thoughts:

• I give the Cardinals a better shot to upset the Tigers than I did the Tigers to upset the Yankees. However, I feel that would be an irresponsible way to look at the series. The difference in the two matchups? The Tigers have pitching, the Yankees did not.
• The time off the Tigers have received is interesting. There couldn't be more disparity between the two World Series teams. The ALCS started first and it was a sweep; the NLCS started second and it went seven games. This could benefit either team, really...which is good for the Cards because they can use all the variables they can get. All I know is, Zumaya loved that week off.
• Playoff rotations if I were managing: St. Louis: Save Carpenter for Game 3 and Suppan for Game 4. St. Louis is on enough fumes as it is. Go Marquis in Game 1 and save Weaver on full rest for Game 2. If it goes 6 games, bring back Carpenter on 3 days rest and Suppan for Game 7 on 3 days. Detroit: Robertson, Rogers moved up to Game 2 (to start Games 2 and 6 at home) Bonderman (want him in Game 7), Verlander.
• Tigers in 5.

Notes on your comments and comments of my own:

The Cardinals did not lose both Chris Carpenter starts. Carpenter got the no decision in his first start (game 2) and the Cards won the game when they put up three runs on Billy Wagner.

I don't think the Cardinals let Jason Marquis pitch a marketing strategy let alone Game 1 of the World Series, but I agree with you on the Cardinal rotation. La Russa will probably throw Reyes for Game 1 and Weaver for Game 2, then the day off, and then Carpenter for Game 3 at home where he pitches phenomenally. The alternative would be both Weaver and Carpenter on short rest in Detroit and if they do that, well then, the terrorists have already won.

I'm not entirely sure how Jim Leyland will set his rotation after that short vacation they had and I'm not even going to pretend that I know which way is the best to set it. Any of their four starters could pitch Game 1 and I'm guessing Leyland will keep the rotation as is: Robertson, Verlander, Rogers, Bonderman. And speaking of interminable amounts of rest between starts, remember how well Verlander pitched on long rest in the Yankee series? It's been eleven days since he last pitched. Eleven days. In the past eleven days there have been 1.1 billion videos watched on youtube, I've shaved twice, and scientists began, and completed, construction on the world's first time machine. A lot has happened in the last eleven days, except Justin Verlander has not stepped foot on a pitching mound. Ditto Zumaya.

Yes, that Endy Chavez catch was ridiculous. I was in a bar somewhere in midtown Manhattan when it happened and the atmosphere (this may be semi-sacrilegious) was a decently watered down imitation of Boston in 2004. People were back-slapping and high-fiving and calling Joe Buck a douchebag. Just like in Boston. Until...

The Mets got Molina-ed. They got Molina-ed good. Yadier "I'm not as fat as my brothers" Molina hit a two-run game winning homer in the top of the ninth. To get to the bottom of the complete improbability of this ever happening I'm going to throw out some numbers: .274, 417, 6, 87, 5. Care to guess what these numbers represent? No? Okay, I'll tell you.

The first number is Yadier Molina's ON BASE PERCENTAGE. Yes, you read that correctly. ON BASE PERCENTAGE. His OBP was almost sixty points lower than Albert Pujols' batting average.

The second is the number of at bats he had this year, fairly standard for a catcher, and the third is the number of homeruns he hit. Six homeruns in 417 at bats. That's about one every seventy at bats. If you assume he gets an average of four at bats a game, that's a homerun for every seventeen regular season games. And this was the youngest Molina's second homerun of a postseason in which he was playing his eleventh game.

Finally, the fourth and fifth numbers relate to the svelte Mr. Aaron Heilman, the man who most directly got Molina-ed. Eighty seven is the number of innings Heilman pitched this season (with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP) and five is the number of homeruns he has surrendered. That's a homerun every 17 innings or so against, on average, hitters who are a good deal better than Yadier Molina. And he was pitching in Shea Stadium which was, despite the very competent Mets offense, the fifth worst park for the long ball this year. And the Mets were 7th in MLB in homeruns with 96 of their 200 homers being hit at home. Assuming the statistics for homeruns per game held from September 6th through the end of the season, visiting teams hit only 60 homeruns at Shea Stadium. What in the name of Aaron f****** Boone happened last night??

Finally, I have to mention that bottom of the ninth. Down two runs, bases loaded, two outs, and the Mets had their best hitter at the plate. If you wrote that scenario into a movie script it would get nixed for being too trite. I swear if Beltran had hit a homerun Oliver Stone would have began shooting a conspiracy theory film the very next day (Kevin Costner as Tony La Russa?) But Beltran struck out on three straight pitches against Adam Wainwright, a guy who had already given up two base hits and a walk to load the bases. I defer to my friend Jim, a diehard Mets fans:

"They had him (Wainwright) rattled. You could see his nerves were getting to him. He bore down, though.. he bore down and threw an amazing pitch when it mattered most. Beltran has to swing at it, no matter how good it is. The pitch before that, the one he fouled off, looked like a hanger.. it was inside, so location was good, but I felt that Beltran should've been able to put a better swing on that pitch. I felt like THAT was the pitch that turned the at bat... not the gem of a curve that followed. I mean, I don't see him putting wood on that pitch even if he swings.. but he has to swing. bottom line, he has to swing..."

And Jim is right. That pitch Wainwright threw was absolutely filthy. It was the second called third strike of the inning on a devastating curveball that was dead in the strike zone. But with the count at 0-2, Beltran had to swing at it. But I still love you, Carlos. I still love you.

Cardinals in six. Think red.

Sorry, my bad. I meant Carpenter didn't get any wins.