NFL: Divisional Playoffs

Very exciting week of playoff games. And by that I mean the AFC games. The NFC games are going to be borderline unwatchable. On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (Saturday, 4;30pm)

ESPN's Len Pasquarelli does a decent job of breaking down what needs to happen on the surface for either of these teams to win so read that if you want all your bases covered. Here's my two cents: the most important factor in this game will be Baltimore's ability to stop the run without cramming eight guys in the box. If they can come out in their 3-4 set and keep Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes in check with seven or less guys that not only takes away the threat of a play action pass but also frees up some of their vicious linebackers to come in on various blitz packages or drop back into coverage. Last week the Chiefs gave up 196 rushing yards and Addai and Rhodes averaged 5.0 yards a carry. That's a product of defenses focusing too much on Peyton Manning. This isn't Urban Meyer's spread offense at Florida. If the Colts can't run the ball on the Ravens defense, the Colts can't pass the ball on the Ravens defense. And by the "can't run the ball and can't pass the ball" syllogism, the Colts probably won't score many points.

And what are the odds of a "They used to be the Baltimore Colts" puff piece rearing its boring, over-hyped head sometime this weekend? I swear on the ghost of Johnny Unitas that nobody gives a s*** anymore. Unless he's not dead yet. Then I apologize.

I think the Ravens defense can stop the run. I think the Colts defense will not duplicate the effort they put forth against the Chiefs last week. I think in this matchup of 2003 NFL co-MVPs Peyton Manning has the more impressive game statistically but heads his Opie Taylor ass back to Mayberry for some of Aunt Bee's "You got knocked out of the playoffs again" apple pie. The Ravens to win and to cover the 4.5 to 5 point spread.


A couple things before I get started. First, this is our 50th post of the blog, and may I say I am proud of the both of us for never letting our success go to our heads. Two lesser men surely would have given up by now.

Secondly, you didn't give the playoff standings for our contest. In a result that was eerily analogous to the regular season, I took 3 out of 4 as you split 2-2. Once again, I'm usually right and you're sometimes right. I promise you, however, that I will not play Marty-ball and keep the ball on the ground for the last three quarters. I've already made my four picks for the weekend. So let's get to them, shall we?

Saj, do you realize that the Colts used to play in Baltimore? That's such a great storyline. It's overwhelmingly relevant to the matchup. How exciting for all involved.

I don't think this game is too difficult to pick. In fact, it's the game I feel most confident picking, which isn't saying much as all four picks were onerous decisions. Ultimately, one can rely on the proven adage that dictates a good defense can slow down or stop a good offense. The Patriots have proven it countless times, often against these very Colts. Great offenses put up great season long numbers while roughing up the lesser teams. However, come playoff time, especially when they have to go on the road in January, good defenses can slow them down. And Baltimore has a GREAT defense. Pick: Baltimore wins, but a prevent defense helps Manning get inside the spread.


Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (Saturday, 8:00pm)

There's an old rule about picking winners in football games. When the game is going to suck and you don't care about the outcome, pick the favorite to cover the spread. When I first saw that this was the game they chose for Saturday night, I wondered why they didn't put the Colts on primetime. Then I remembered that this was primetime on Saturday night, not Sunday. What kind of loser (Ian) is going to be sitting at home watching that game?

In football related news: The Saints are very good on offense and I am supremely confident that Reggie Bush will do something really awesome tomorrow night. Thank God for Sportscenter and TiVo because I am NOT sacrificing my date with three Brazilian swimsuit models to watch the Saints play the Eagles. New Orleans to cover the spread, Jeff Garcia to cover his bald spot with a bad hairpiece.


I'm one Brazilian swimsuit model. Who are the other two?

Yes, I will be home watching this game. I've worked over twelve hours three days this week, but most of that has been at work. I am looking forward to the three day weekend, when I only have to work eight to ten hours a day and I can do it from the comfort of my bedroom. Apparently, I've broken one of the teaching commandments: Thou shalt now assign a term paper that is due during the week of exams. I have never EVER had so much work to do in a two week stretch. Why this digression? It's all my way of saying thank God for a Saturday night football game that I can follow while grading essays and papers.

This gets me to my point. God. After forsaking New Orleans because of their sin, he has clearly decided to make amends by sending their football team to the Superbowl. So even though God shows the emotion of wrath, he also shows that he admits he's fallible. What a guy. I mean God. Pick: New Orleans covers. Reggie Bush scores. Donovan McNabb rejoices.


Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (Sunday, 1:00pm)

The spread for this game is somewhere near nine points with the Bears favored and why not? They demolished the Seahawks earlier in the season, they still have their defense, and it's going to colder in Chicago than the Propecia Matt Hasselbeck applies to his scalp (assuming Propecia has to be refrigerated before use.) Wow, that's two digs at bald/balding quarterbacks for me. Thank God for Tom Brady and his full head of hair.

Speaking of Tom Brady, a game like this makes me realize how much I love him. Call it what you will, hetero or homo, I love the man. In contrast, the Bears have Rex Grossman. Yikes. Personally, I think too much is being made of out Grossman's poor performance lately. The Bears don't need him to play well to win, they could beat Seattle if they punted on every first down and routinely had eight to ten defenders on the field. I'm not sure if that's a testament to how bad Seattle is or how good Chicago is, but it's a testament to how badly one team will beat the other. I hesitate to take the Bears to cover here, just because I'm not sure if they will even score nine points. Bears to win but not cover.


First, I agree completely with the person who commented on today's blog. Second, you made a great point on Grossman. So many fans in the NFL are scared everytime their quarterback drops back. Patriots fans haven't had that feeling since Tony Eason (Shut up, Saj. Just shut up. I'm really stressed out.).

I just realized that not only is each game difficult to pick, but they are increasingly more difficult as the the weekend progresses. The espn experts would seem to disagree, as they are all but unanimous picking the top seeds this weekend.

I think this spread is way too high. Chicago is not a dominant team. How can a team that has no idea how they will score their points be over a touchdown favorite? I mean, you can't ASSUME the defense will score points. Sure, they do often, but not every week. Moreover, the chief ball-handlers of Seattle (Hasselbeck and Alexander) are experienced both in tenure and in the playoffs. They aren't nearly as turnover prone as other teams, especially in the playoffs. If they were, you wouldn't be able to explain three straight winning seasons with playoffs appearances capped off with a trip to the Superbowl.

Chicago, meanwhile, has Rex Grossman leading a mediocre offense whose ONLY playoff appearance in the last five years was last year. And what happened in that appearance? They lost after a first round bye. Pick: Seattle outright.


New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers (Sunday, 4:30pm) GOTY

Picking Seattle outright? You're insane. As for the GOTY, there's another when it comes to picking football games: Saj is a homer. I'm taking the Patriots here principally because I can't allow myself to pick against them. I could cook up some rationalizations for why they win this game, but I really don't care to. PATRIOTS.


To stop LT, the Patriots need to put 7-8 men in the box. If they do that, Gates cannot be properly guarded. I had Gates on both my fantasy teams and I was waiting all season for his 2006 breakout game. It looks like he was just waiting for 2007. He catches two touchdowns and LT has another. New England will feel like they're doing a good job on LT, and then he'll break a big one out of nowhere and it'll hurt bad.

If the Patriots can lose to last year's Broncos team, they can definitely lose to this year's Chargers team. The New England fan base is way too confident heading into this game. San Diego is better. They're just better. It's not a slight that most people are taking the Chargers. The Pats lost to Miami and the Jets, for Pete's sake. And now Pats fans want to think we're going into San Diego and beating them? It's insane.

I mean come on. The Chargers have the best record in football. They went undefeated at home. They have the best football player on the planet. They're very strong on both sides of the football. How in the hell can Patriots Nation be so confident? Is there an objective answer out there?

Yes. Yes there is. And it reads like this: 2001-2002 Rams. 2002-2003 Colts. 2003-2004 Steelers. Tom Brady. Bill Belichick. Pick: PATRIOTS

GO PATS!!!