The winner of this game will be the favorite in the AFC Championship. The winner of the AFC Championship will be a heavy favorite in the Superbowl. Therefore, via the transitive property, the winner of this game is the odds on favorite to hoist the Vince Lombardi trophy.
What makes it all the more exciting is that people are having a real difficult time picking a winner. You can make a strong case for both teams.
The Patriots have four of the six most important advantages a team would want in a playoff game. The Chargers have the other two, as well as numbers seven through infinity. The Patriots have the far superior head coach and quarterback, they have more experience, and they should do a better job controlling the passing game on both sides, as their quarterback is bright, talented, and experienced, while their defensive line is young, strong, fast, heavy, and good.
The Chargers have two of the six most important things in their column. They will run the ball better and they will better effectively stop the run. Their back is the best in the league and their linebackers are scary good.
Saj, I will hold off my pick of the game, as I'm sure the contrarian in you will go the other way, so you're just waiting for me to make the pick. Not happening. Per last week's agreement, you're going first on all picks this week. I'd like your thought on the magnitude of this game, as well as some other subplots you'd like to discuss.
Just putting it out there, but I would have named the post "NFL: GOTY." Partially because I love useless acronyms and partially because GOTY sounds funny. Anyway, GOTY is shaping up to be positively EPIC. I'm going to go a step further than you and say that this is the most important NFL game since New England beat Indianapolis 24-14 in the 2003 playoffs. Last year's Superbowl was barely a football game, not to take anything away from the Steelers. And speaking of the Steelers and important games when I told my Steeler fan co-worker how I thought the 2003 AFC Championship was the most important game of the last four years he said, "I can see how a Patriots fan would think that," and walked away. So objectively, as a Patriots fan, I am right.
Intriguing subplot #1: Shawne Merriman.
I'm not going to moralize about his suspension for steroid abuse (or maybe I am), but I'll leave it up to James Blake via SI's Jon Wertheim to expound on punishment as rewards for steroids (middle of the page):
"...In tennis, the punishment for drug cheats -- suspension -- is really no punishment at all. The sport is exceptionally grueling with virtually no offseason and an unrelenting travel schedule. Telling a player, 'You have six months of no matches and no travel, but you can work on your game, improve your fitness and convalesce your aches and pains' isn't exactly a harsh sentence.
'Take a look at guys like [Juan Ignacio] Chela and now [Guillermo] Canas,' says Blake. 'They took time off [for a doping suspension] and came back playing some of their best tennis.'"
And that's how I feel about the Merriman suspension and the entire issue of steroids in the NFL; punishments that could double as rewards. In baseball, mere speculation has altered Mark McGwire's legacy and in soccer the punishment for even missing a scheduled drug test is somewhere near eight months. The two most damning results of a positive steroid test are 1) public perception and loss of both integrity and respect and 2) severe suspension or financial punition. Merriman skirted both, only getting a four game suspension and remaining eligible for post-season honors (Defensive Player of the Year, Pro Bowl selection, etc.) Do you see how someone could abuse this system? Let's say Merriman has a existing knee condition that requires him to either shut down for a month or apply some sort of steroid cream which would facilitate the healing process and allow him to play immediately. Assuming he could weather the financial loss of four games worth of paychecks, he knows his team is in a great position to make the playoffs, he's looking at a Pro Bowl selection regardless, and the chance of not getting caught is a non-zero number, HE DOES IT EVERY SINGLE TIME. Bottom line: the deterrent to steroid abuse in the NFL is simply not strong enough. And if you disagree, ask yourself what would happen if Merriman goes on to break the all-time NFL sack record 12 years from now. The answer is that he's going to Canton. Think about that this weekend while he's breaking Tom Brady's ribs.
Intriguing subplot #2: Bill Belichick and his God Complex.
I love Bill Belichick, but if I were anybody but a Patriots fan I would absolutely hate the guy. Boring press conferences, dresses like a hobo, dour expression, shoves camera guys in the face, he is just a very, very unhappy man. The man may be the best coach in football, but does he ever know it. A lot of that is his status in New England. He could walk along the Freedom Trail in downtown Boston screaming disparaging epithets about the city and smearing his feces all over the statue of Paul Revere and not a bad word would be said about him. And he exerts an incredible amount of control over that organization, partially a result of people cherry-picking players and coaches he effectively created. How long can the Patriots hemorrhage talent, both on the field and off, before it becomes an issue? We'll find out when one too many Deion Branchs and Charles Weises leave the team.
Intriguing subplot #3: The Chargers banning ticket sales to Patriots fans.
I'm well aware that New England fans are insufferable. But this is just petty. If you're the best team in the league and you can't fill your home stadium then, with all due respect, f*** off. Sports are all we have in New England: the weather sucks, the beaches suck, the women dress like Eskimos for eight months of the year. Throw us a bone, San Diego.
Overrated intriguing subplot #1: Marty Schottenheimer.
I'm of the "way too much is being made of Schottenheimer as a bad playoff coach" school of thought. Maybe that's just me. Maybe.
Has any team been favored by 4.5 points over the Pats in the playoffs since their win over the St. Louis Rams in Superbowl XXXVI? Since that Superbowl, New England has been followed by an incredible amount of respect from oddsmakers and learned fans of the NFL. For six years, they've been as perfect of a team as could realistically be formed in the NFL of the 21st century. They've had a great coach, a great quarterback, proud veterans who never got sick of winning (Law, McGinest, Vrabel, Bruschi, Harrison, Brown), and brilliant front office managing to continue the influx of youth through the drafts (Seymour, Warren, Wilfork, Graham, Watson, Samuel, Maroney).
Not since that Rams game has this earned respect been as tested as it is now. You mentioned the 2003 AFC Championship. Please remind your Steelers fan co-worker that the Steelers went 15-1 the next year (thanks to a regular-season victory over a banged up Pats team), had homefield throughout the playoffs, and the Patriots were still favored in the AFC championship game against them.
But the Pats are not only underdogs in an easy place to play, but they're underdogs by more than a field goal. Why? Because this San Diego team, on paper, is the best non Patriots team put together since the 2000-2001 Baltimore Ravens. Arguments?
I'm going to have to disagree with you on that last one. The best non-Patriots team of the past six or so years was last year's Colts team. Tomorrow we do the picks, chronological this time.
Teams that don't win a playoff game are not that good, especially ones that lose big home games to six seeds. See you tomorrow.
No comments:
Post a Comment