Impossible Probabilities

Saj, rank the following six in probability of occurence, from most to least possible, and preferably with a short explanation.

1. Beckett (7-0 in seven starts) wins 30 games.
2. Derrick Lee (.394) or anyone hits .400.
3. Alex Rodriguez (15) or anyone finishes with 62 HR.
4. Francisco Cordero (15) or anyone saves 58 games.
5. The Milwaukee Brewers win the division.
6. The New York Yankees miss the playoffs.


1. The Milwaukee Brewers win the NL Central. Not a very strong division, they've shown great starting pitching and good hitting from their youngsters, and not even Bud Selig (Snidely Whiplash himself) can keep the Chorizo off the Miller Park race track this year.

2. The New York Yankees miss the playoffs. I had a tough time picking between this one and the next two. In the end this seemed like a safer bet. There are just too many good teams in the AL. The wild card could again take at least 90 wins and the Yankees might not have it.

3. Alex Rodriguez (15) or anyone finishes with 62 homers. I could flip-flop this and number two and be fine with it, but I won't. As long as people keep pitching to ARod he has a good shot at 62, not to mention the possibility of guys like Pujols, Howard, Ortiz, or Hafner catching fire and jacking homers like Bonds pops greenies. Plus the possibility of ARod hitting 60 homeruns and the Yankees missing the playoffs is too enticing to not root for.

4. Francisco Cordero (15) or anyone saves 58 games. This is a matter of luck more than anything. Lots of guys can close out 58 games they just need the opportunities. Unfortunately I do not think any one closer will see 60 save opportunities this year.

5. Derrek Lee (.394) or anyone hits .400. I'm beginning to think that hitting .400 is becoming the most impossible single-season hitting milestone to achieve in baseball. More than Dimaggio's 56 games or Wilson's RBI record. The guy who breaks it is going to be a Jose Reyes type (infield singles, walks some) or a Barry Bonds type (only swings at pitches he can drive, walks a lot). Either way it'll take a guy who doesn't strike out a lot and the guiding hand of lady luck to let ten to twenty more hits fall.

6. Josh Beckett (7-0) wins 30 games. Simply impossible. Best case scenario, Beckett gets 35 starts this season. That means he only has five starts in which he can lose or get the no decision and there are too many variables that contribute to a W: run support, opposing pitcher, how many players were paid off by the bookies, etc.


We agree too often. The only difference in our list is that I had Yankees missing the playoffs at 3, and Arod hitting 62 at 2. If you were offered even money on the Yanks making the playoffs, which side would you bet on?


Hands down that they miss the playoffs. I'm never unbiased in bets like these, you know that.


I disagree. I still expect them to make the playoffs, even after getting humiliated by the Rangers today. Saj, you know what's going to happen. They're going to rip off 8 in a row by scoring 65-70 runs, go on a 17 out of 20 streak, and be a few games within the playoff race and with all the momentum in the world. Then everyone will take the Yanks to make the playoffs, the only question will be if they overtake Boston. It's going to happen, it's just a matter of when.