Papelbon, Fenway ovations

Idle thoughts while waiting for the Red Sox home opener (2:05)

This was my stance on the Papelbon debate on Easter morning:

When the Sox had a 2-3 record and Papelbon had one appearance with a 3-run lead, it seemed foolish that Julian Tavarez started the game that had the Sox fall to one game under .500. If Papelbon was a starter, Wakefield's strong outing could have occured in the fifth game of the year and the Sox would be one game over .500. The only other difference would have been that a different Red Sox reliever would have been counted on for that 3 run save, and probably have gotten it. More importantly, Julian Tavarez wouldn't be starting every fifth game.

Well, I wouldn't say I've done a 180, but I certainly paused to think about going in a new direction.

On Sunday night, with Boston leading Texas 3-2 with one out and the tying run on third base and two of the most dangerous hitters in the league (Young and Teixeira) coming up, Francona called on his closer. A few minutes later, the lead is still safe and the eighth is over. An inning later and Papelbon finishes off a dominant five out save and the Sox hang on. Saj proceeded to ask me: "How big is your Papelboner right now." And I could only reply truthfully. "Enormous."

But here's the thing. He's too good. He is Rivera, Smoltz, and Gagne in their prime good. Papelbon, like Smoltz, was meant to be a starter. Guys like that are too good to be a closer. There's a reason Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson did not pitch out of the bullpen. They would have been the best two closers ever, no doubt in my mind. The door would be slammed shut as soon as they came in. But where were they more valuable? As a starter, of course.

Now, I am by no means saying I expect Papelbon to be as good as Martinez. What I am saying is that he can be a great starting pitcher. He has heat, stuff, a brain, and catcher who calls the best games in the world. He could be great. And a great starting pitcher is much more valuable than even the best closer ever. Just ask the Yankees, mired in an oh-too-long-for-that-payroll six-year drought, despite having the best closer in the league.

Anyway, with every Papelbon save, my opinion will probably waiver. I'm never going to say he doesn't look fantastic out there. He does. But the Red Sox will lose a majority of Tavarez starts, and maybe half of Wakefields. And that's difficult for a closer to make up.

Saj, I'd like your thoughts on this. Also, quick predictions before the Fenway home opener. Rank what you think will be the five loudest ovations at Fenway, and then name one or two players whose ovations will be luke warm.

Five loudest
1. Matsuzaka
2. Papelbon
3. Ortiz
4. Varitek
5. Manny

Worst ovations (non-bench players): Lugo, Crisp, Tavarez

I disagree with you on Papelbon, and here's why:

1. Papelbon was a closer in college and a damn good one.
2. This Peter Gammons piece from yesterday (ESPN Insider). It perfectly summarizes what Papelbon does for the Red Sox, mentally. He basically ensure that the Red Sox win games that they are in a position to win through seven or eight innings. It's a morale boost to know that if you score runs early you have a great insurance policy.
3. What he did on Sunday was one of the best relief performances I have ever seen. He came in with guys on first and third with a one run lead and threw 15 pitches for 5 outs and 3 strikeouts, including a three-pitch domination of Brad Wilkerson to end the game. I'm well aware of the "200 innings is better than 100 innings" argument, but we seem to take "Papelbon being an ace starter" as a given when it is not. He's got great stuff, but so did Eric Gagne and he was a complete bust as a starter.
4. That glower on the mound. Papelbon is, hands down, the scariest white dude in baseball. He personifies the intimidation that Randy Johnson used to have back when he wasn't 300 years old and his left arm wasn't fossilized.
5. Top to bottom, Papelbon makes the bullpen better. Now Francona can use Romero, Donnelly, Pineiro, Timlin in innings 5 through 8 with seemingly reckless abandon. Like I said before, this is the best Red Sox bullpen since El Guapo was rolling around out there and we all know what a good bullpen can do in the playoffs.
6. Jon Lester is only six weeks away at a time when the fifth starter is the least necessary. I do think Tavarez should be taken out of the rotation ASAP in favor of the incredible Devern Hansack (who has an incredible tale) as Lester's placeholder. Remember Lester is only 23 and, as a fifth starter, he's major league ready.

Giddy for opening day at the Fens: watching on www.mlb.tv in the office, over/under on when I get fired is 3:30.