NFL: Wild Card Round Predictions

New York Jets at New England Patriots (Sunday, 1:00pm)

When Rick Pitino was struggling through his term as Boston Celtics head coach at the close of the century, he gave us one of the most infamous press conferences in Boston sports history. He ranted and cursed about the town's perpetual pessimism. ("All the negativity that's in this town sucks.") He went on and on about the media and the fans' continual criticisms of everything that wasn't right with their teams.

Of course, that was before Patriots 2001-2005 and Red Sox 2004. Now, we're seeing the flip side of that coin.

The optimism in this town sucks. Listening to powerhouse radio station WEEI yesterday afternoon, the quartet of talking heads in the room couldn't be more confident if the Patriots were facing Ball State. It was sickening. They honestly gave the Jets no chance. The term "zero percent" was used on multiple occasions. And for the most part, 90% of the callers agreed. In fact, an entire segment was dedicated to matching the Pats up with the Chargers, in anticipation of the second round matchup. And the segment wasn't even a purposeful joke or snub. They were truly looking forward. I was ashamed.

I just wanted to say that before I picked New England. I think the Pats will win the game, but the 8.5 spread (first at 9.5, then 9) is simply too high. This is not a gimme game of any sort. I look for a big game from Maroney and an average game from Pennington. A Dillon TD in the 4th quarter will cap off a huge drive, putting the Jets behind the 8 ball. Pick: New England


Two things I hate to say and will probably never say again: 1) The Jets are a pretty good football team and 2) you're right about them. As my roommate Rob, a lifelong Jets and Mets fan, said, "The Jets are free-rolling right now." And that is exactly what they're doing, they're playing with the house's money. Not even the most optimistic of Jets fans thought they'd make the playoffs but here they are and everything else is gravy.

I'm sorry, I'm not sure if that was condescending enough. Let me start over:

You know, never would I have thought that the New York Jets would make the playoffs this season. But those plucky little guys pulled themselves up by their bootstraps and fought through an anemic +21 point differential and a schedule in which they beat only one team with a winning record (the day they laced Tom Brady's Gatorade with sedatives) to pound out ten wins and secure a spot in the playoffs. Their underdog story is enough to warm even this Patriots fan's cold heart. The only thing cuter would be if they dressed eleven puggles is Jets uniforms and had them scrimmage at halftime. It doesn't matter what happens in the playoffs, because they're already winners in my book.

That's better. Anyway, here's what I think about the Jets: they have the second best coach in the league, a quarterback who was probably stricken with polio as a child, and less talent than Kelly Clarkson. I'll take the Patriots to cover.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, 4:30pm)

The other local game also takes place on Sunday, with the New York Giants traveling to rival Philadelphia. I think this weekend can show how powerful East Coast bias is. From an objective point of view, it is the two Saturday games that have not only the greatest chance of fireworks, but the best chance of the underdog winning. On Sunday, the four most northeastern teams in football, save Buffalo, compete against each other. What day will garner the bigger ratings?

As I mentioned earlier in the year, a matchup between the Giants and Eagles is impossible to predict. They're such intense rivals that, even if one was in their down year and the other on a championship run, anything could happen. This game seems to put an overwhelming amount of checks in the category of the Eagles, from coaching to quarterback play to defense to health. The Giants greatest strength, their halfback, is also a great strength of the Eagles. So what do the Giants have? The Giants have a running back and they have receivers. So how can they win this game? The play of Eli Manning has to be strong. If not, the box will get filled and Barber will be stopped. Manning is the most important person in this game. Thus far, he has not shown he can play with this type of burden. Pick: Philadelphia to cover.


I covered the Giants in an earlier blogpost:

"...As for playoff chances, what else can I say about the Giants except that they have the talent to play with anyone but they have a quarterback who loves to throw into double-coverage off his back foot, a starting tight end that can't run block, a backup tight end that can't catch, a number one wide receiver who quits on plays (in fairness, many teams have one of these), and a coach who, for a "discinplinarian," runs his team like an alcoholic foster parent..."

And since I wrote that all of three days ago, I stand by it. As an addendum, they finished the season with a 2-6 record in their last eight games, having given up an average of 27 points in those eight games. What that means is that they'll need to score a lot of points this week to overcome their shortcomings on defense. I agree that this game is in Eli Manning's hands. The Eagles can stop the run, in two games they've limited Tiki Barber to only 126 yards on 40 carries, and in a game where they will be trading points Eli will need to be efficient and avoid mistakes. I don't see that happening. Then again the Giants could snap out of their funk and win the game by twenty points. Philadelphia to win, but not to cover.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (Saturday, 4:30pm)

Speaking of the Giants horrendous second half play, there was a great question asked at Coughlin’s last press conference after he was pleased with their win over Washington to get them into the playoffs. The reporter asked, “You just gave up 21 points in 5 minutes to a five win team. How do you feel vindicated?” I love it.

Let’s go to Indianapolis, where we have the only game where you wouldn’t be surprised to see a blow out in either direction. Since the match up was finalized, I had been leaning towards Kansas City. I told just about everyone at school that KC all week. The more I think about it, however, the more I’m moving towards the Colts. I kind of want to take Indy here to hedge my bets, but then I realize I turn out a loser on one front or the other. And I’m no loser.

The Chiefs win this shootout because both teams should be able score a bundle, but the Chiefs will have a much easier time controlling the clock, which is important for situational play. If the Colts win this game, it’s because it was a blowout. If the Chiefs get stopped twice early, and the Colts get in the endzone three of their first four possessions, than the Colts are going back to Baltimore next weekend. But I don’t think the Chiefs will be stopped more than twice all game. Pick: Kansas City


I made my feelings clear on the Chiefs-Colts matchup in the previous blogpost. For the sake of nonredundancy:

"...of the six possible teams the Colts could be playing next week, the Chiefs are, by far, the one they would have least wanted to see. They have a monster of a tailback in Larry Johnson and a competent veteran quarterback. Meanwhile the functionally-challenged Colts defense has not only allowed the most rushing yards per game and rushing yards per carry but, more alarmingly, the Colts defense has seen the second MOST rushing attempts (to Oakland) and the second LEAST passing attempts (again, to Oakland). For a team that ended the season 12-4 and scored the second most points in the league, those are telling numbers. Traditionally a football team will throw when they're behind and run when they're ahead, hence Oakland's figures (which, by the way, misrepresents how bad/good their rushing/passing defenses actually were). What those numbers from the Colts tell us is that teams were still running the ball on Indianapolis WHEN THE COLTS HAD THE LEAD..."

Clearly I'm going with Kansas City here in spite of a number of troubling factors. 1) The Chiefs, at 3-5, have the worst road record of any playoff team (Half of the playoff teams had better road records than home records this season: the Giants, Cowboys, Jets, Patriots, Saints, and Bears) and the Colts are undefeated at home. 2) Kansas City had the worst point differential of any playoff team (worse than the Jets!) at +16. 3) They're fairly one dimensional on offense. While I trust Trent Green to manage a game (in the "Brad Johnson in 2002" sense not in the "Joe Theisman called Brad Johnson a good game manager in the first game of the 2006 season" sense) I don't trust Trent Green to engineer a late comeback drive anymore than I trust (warning: stilted Paris Hilton joke) Paris Hilton to not be a whore. So if the Chiefs fall behind and time is running out, they're cooked.

Lots of people are making a big deal about Larry Johnson's 416 carries this season, but I'm not. This is only his fourth season in the league and he's a large man with incredible speed. Two seasons from now when he misses eight games for miscellaneous injuries you can look back on those 416 carries. But against the Colts this weekend LJ has to have his eyes on 200 yards. My roommate Rob, prescient and level-headed when it comes to sports, casually mentioned that this game could come down to who wins the coin toss, and I believe that. Whoever gets the ball first probably scores first. And whoever scores first probably scores more points. And whoever scores more points will probably win the game. Kansas City wins, and Peyton Manning heads back to Archie's house to throw a football through a tire in the backyard for four hours a day until training camp starts up again. Hard work.

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (Saturday, 8:00pm)

Rarely do I like to emulate Saj in anything, but as a horrendously busy guy, I can't overlook the advantage of copying and pasting something I wrote already. This was on the subject of Parcells and a possible switch back to Drew Bledsoe at quarterback.

"It's not as crazy as it sounds. The Cowboys are starting to put forth that lackadaisical effort that we were seeing earlier in the year. When they went to Romo, the excitable rookie who the team could rally around, all players, in every facet of the game, picked up their effort. Now, with the team once again needing an adrenelin push, couldn't they turn to the likeable, cagey veteran who the team could rally around? Remember when Brady got hurt in that Steelers AFC Championship game? Bill Simmons himself said that the Pats would not have won that Steeler game if Brady didn't get hurt. Bledsoe was the wildcard that kicked the team in gear. Anyway, Parcells going back to Bledsoe is not as crazy as it sounds."

And that's what it would take for me to pick Dallas. They're playing terribly right now with Romo under center. Bledsoe has four playoff wins to Romo's zero, and Bledsoe did it with less talented teams. Romo beat one good team all year, and that was the Indy game win week 11. Since then, pitiful losses to the Saints, Eagles, and ultimately the Lions have shown him to be an unexperienced quarterback who received way too much attention when his team started playing really playing well (Especially the O-Line), and the league hadn't figured him out yet.

Unfortunately, Parcells knows he can't go to Bledsoe if they fall behind by two scores. If Seattle switches to pass rush mode, Bledsoe is toast.

Seattle I like as a dark horse in the tournament. I love the experience of both four seeds. They're the only two teams with Superbowl quarterbacks. They have balanced offensive attacks. They have top notch head coaches. Watch out for the four seeds! Pick: Seattle to win, Dallas plus the points.


Dude. Seriously. Comparing the Seahawks to the Patriots? Sacrilege! You have officially been excommunicated from the Church of Brady. This has to be the most boring game of the week and I have nothing but apathy for it. Possibly the best part about the game is getting to read "Drew Bledsoe's" live blog about it.

When in doubt go with the team that doesn't have a rookie and a converted safety starting at cornerback. Say what you will about how Romo has played in the last few games but he still finished the season with 19 TDs in 10 games and a quarterback rating in the mid-90s. Meanwhile I just don't trust the Seahawks offense, despite the deepest wide receiver core in the league and a fantastic tailback. I never thought I'd say this, but Dallas to win outright.