If you don't know where you come down on the Beckett or Wakefield argument for tonight's Game 4, just consider this hypothetical scenario: If tonight's Game 4 were rained out, would Josh Beckett pitch tomorrow's game 4 on normal rest?
The answer is unequivocally yes.
And that's why Josh Beckett is the no brainer for tonight.
Is anyone questioning Beckett's effectiveness if he pitches tonight? He's 2-0 in his playoff career on three days rest. He threw one of the great World Series games on three days rest. He's completely in the zone. Sending him against Paul Byrd is the closest thing the Red Sox have to a sure thing in this series.
That is, except, Josh Beckett vs. Jake Westbrook in a potential Game 7.
And that's the crux of the issue, and neither of the WEEI guys acknowledged it in the debate this morning. The Red Sox have the potential to send Josh Beckett, head and shoulders their best pitcher, out to the mound three times this series, including a Game 7 where he'd be on FULL rest, thanks to scheduled offdays after Games 4 and 5.
I understand that the Red Sox don't want to push up Schilling and DiceK into games 5 and 6. I understand they want to give them longer than normal rest. Fine. Throw Wakefield in Game five instead of four. That's right, I'm saying let's go Beckett-Wakefield instead of Wakefield-Beckett.
The difference? Game 7.
Down two games to one means the Sox have to win three out of the next four. If Wakefield, on 18 days rest and a sore back and a cortizone shot and a terrible September, puts the Sox in a 3-1 series hole after tonight, then Boston needs to win three in a row, and that includes a DiceK Game 7 start. That's a tall order against a good Cleveland Indians club.
Finally, to really drive home the point, let's look a the four possible scenarios after tonight.
1. Wakefield starts, Red Sox lose, falling down 3 games to 1. Read the above paragraph.
2. Wakefield starts, Red Sox win, tying the series 2-2. The Red Sox still have to win two out of three, with two games coming against Sabathia and Carmona, and the last being another Matsuzaka start.
3. Beckett starts, Red Sox win, tying the series 2-2. The Red Sox have to win two out of the next three, but if they can win either Game 5 or 6, then they have Beckett on full rest against Westbrook in Fenway for Game 7. This is the most likely scenario.
4. Beckett starts, Red Sox lose, falling down 3 games to 1. Is there any possibility Beckett loses to Paul Byrd? I mean, at all?
Josh Beckett must start Game 4.
Showing posts with label Boston Red Sox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boston Red Sox. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
MLB: Second Half Predictions
Ian, before we get to our hare-brained second half predictions, let's assess last night's All Star game- particularly the end. Let's pretend that you're Tony La Russa. Let's say yesterday morning you woke up in your hotel (rising from the hyperbolic chamber in which you sleep) ordered a coffee and a croissant from room service, turned the television to the weather channel and stepped out on your balcony to breath in the fresh San Franciscan air. And then you said to yourself, "Tony, you handsome sexagenarian, if by some stroke of serendipity your National League squad finds itself down by one run with the bases loaded, two outs in the ninth inning, and career league-average hitter Aaron Rowand at the plate, by gum, you will let that Rowand boy hit. Sure you could pinch hit the best righthanded hitter in the game, Albert Pujols, and, yes, Pujols is to Rowand as Optimus Prime is to a Chevy Silverado, but why give the National League the best chance to win the game when you can lose the game AND piss off your best player at the same time?" I'm assuming that question is no longer rhetorical because that's exactly what Tony La Russa did. Why, Tony? Why?
I was watching the game with buddies Greg and Pete, and the lot of us were befuddled. We assumed that Pujols was injured and LaRussa didn't want to play his own player in an quasi-exhibition game. However, from what I've read after the game, Pujols was ready to go. Therefore, LaRussa not only robbed the NL from breaking a 9-now-10-year losing streak, not only did he rob the NL from a chance at homefield advantage in the World Series, but he also robbed us, Major League Baseball fans, from perhaps the most exciting All-Star at bat of this generation! And for that, he should not be forgiven.
If you want the answer as to why he did this, I'm sure you already read LaRussa's cockamamie excuse as to Pujols' versatility in extra innings... but since when has a manager managed for extra innings when he was DOWN ONE RUN in the ninth. A tie game is one thing, but down a run in the ninth or the bottom of an extra inning? Does Terry Francona let David Ortiz run if they're down one in the 10th? Not a chance. He gets a pinch runner. You need that run to win. I mean, managers often pinch run their second catcher in an extra innings without another catcher on the roster because they need that run to keep playing. You figure out who's playing where AFTER you extend the game.
And if the answer to all these criticisms are, "It's just an exhibition," than that is precisely the reason as to why the move should have been made. It would have been fun to see a couple guys out of position in an All-Star Game. And if the answer to that is, "The game counts, no fooling around," than Albert Pujols must see an at bat there. End of story.
I rest my case.
Saj, get us started on second half predictions.
You know, I was all set to do this: internet research, lots of reading and statistics, but I really don't want to. In lieu of any of that, here are some arbitrary statements about the next three months of baseball.
1. The Philadelphia Phillies will make the playoffs. Chase Utley will hit 45 more homeruns, the last 15 or so he'll will out of the park using only his mind and his crystal clear blue eyes. Girls you can have Cole Hamels and Grady Sizemore, the Chaser is all mine. Oh, and Brett Myers will remember that he's f****** Brett Myers. Not the beating his wife part but the good at pitching part.
2. Everyone will jump off the "Detroit Tigers are the best team in baseball" bandwagon when Curtis Granderson (of blogging fame) breaks his wrist in August and the damn thing crashes into a telephone pole. Lucky for them, the Los Angeles Angels bandwagon will pick them up when the Angels make an ill-advised trade for a hitter they don't need. None of this will prevent both these teams from being obliterated in the postseason by Boston. Angels Note: Reggie Willits will end the season hitting below .280.
3. Unless it has already happened, Ichiro will not sign an extension with Seattle. Please be aware that the rules of time do not apply to this statement. So, technically, I can't be wrong.
4. Barry Bonds will hit homeruns 755 and 756 in the same day and as he crosses homeplate the second time he will remove a mask to reveal that he is actually Mark McGwire and the real Barry Bonds has been locked in a basement since 1999. McGwire will go on to tell the media that he got the idea from the 1986 comedy "Soul Man" where a white student masquerades as an African American so that he may receive a scholarship to Harvard. McGwire will also say that he "would have gotten away with it if it weren't for those meddling kids and their damn dog."
5. The Cleveland Indians will issue an "Indian of the month" 2008 calendar as a giveaway on the last day of the season. While Grady Sizemore will be Mr. April and Travis Hafner will be Mr. May, C.C. Sabathia will be Mr. August, Mr. September, and Mr. October. The joke here is that C.C. Sabathia is fat.
6. The San Diego Padres will win the NL Pennant by sweeping the Phillies prompting Fox to go into panic mode when the Mariners take a 3-1 lead on the Red Sox in the ALCS. Before Game 5, a ski-mask clad Chris Myers will take a lead pipe to Ichiro's knee destroying Seattle's morale and saving postseason ratings from West Coast irrelevance. Ichiro will silently lament not signing that ridiculous contract the Mariners offered him back in July but then he will smile wryly because he appreciates the irony. Unless, of course, it has already happened.
Ian?
How in Mike Greenwell's name am I supposed to counter those rock solid, take-it-to-the- bank predictions? I mean, the don't even have to play the rest of the regular season anymore. Saj has figured it out for us.
Anyway, instead of building to my World Series prediction, I will start there (kind of) and work my way back. I'll start with this:
The two most important players in determining the World Series participants are the same two most important players of the 2004 season and playoffs - Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling. Simply put, those two players determine how far their respective teams advance in the playoffs.
In the case of Pedro and the New York Mets, if he looks as good as he and everyone else who has seen him says he is, the Mets will be playing in the 2007 World Series. If he's not, and especially if the Metropolitans cannot pick up another starter better than Tom Glavine, than it's the San Diego Padres in the Series. The Mets lineup is the best in the National League. All they need is two quality starters which they currently don't have. It's as simple as that.
Verdict for NL Champion
A good or better Pedro = New York
An average or worse Pedro = San Diego
Prediction - San Diego Padres, behind Jake Peavy's 2 wins and a win from David Wells and someone else, and thanks to lackluster performances from the Mets pitching staff, are in the World Series.
In the case of Schilling and the Boston Red Sox, if Schilling returns to at least 80% of the typical playoff Curt Schilling, the Red Sox are going to win the World Series. If not, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka are not enough to topple the Detroit Tigers.
Verdict for AL Champion
A good or better Schilling = Boston
An average or worse Schilling = Detroit
Prediction - Schilling, at forty years of age and decidedly out of shape, does not bounce back like he once could. Detroit matches up very well with the BoSox and takes the series in a classic seven games.
Rounding out the playoffs - Milwaukee falls apart, and a sizzling second half from Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and the Chicago Cubs' lineup gives the Cubs the NL Central. The Brew Crew and the Dodgers battle it out for the wild card, but the Dodgers' experience is victorious and earn the honor of once again traveling to New York in the first round... where they will again lose.
Over in the AL, the Yankees do make an August and September push, taking advantage of many games with Tampa, Baltimore, and Toronto. However, this postseason will give way to many "Out like the Yankees in October" jokes, as the Cleveland Indians return to the playoffs as the AL wildcard. The Tigers start their World Series run with a drubbing over the AL West Champion Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
That's it. Predictions locked in. I'll be sure to post this link again in October.
I was watching the game with buddies Greg and Pete, and the lot of us were befuddled. We assumed that Pujols was injured and LaRussa didn't want to play his own player in an quasi-exhibition game. However, from what I've read after the game, Pujols was ready to go. Therefore, LaRussa not only robbed the NL from breaking a 9-now-10-year losing streak, not only did he rob the NL from a chance at homefield advantage in the World Series, but he also robbed us, Major League Baseball fans, from perhaps the most exciting All-Star at bat of this generation! And for that, he should not be forgiven.
If you want the answer as to why he did this, I'm sure you already read LaRussa's cockamamie excuse as to Pujols' versatility in extra innings... but since when has a manager managed for extra innings when he was DOWN ONE RUN in the ninth. A tie game is one thing, but down a run in the ninth or the bottom of an extra inning? Does Terry Francona let David Ortiz run if they're down one in the 10th? Not a chance. He gets a pinch runner. You need that run to win. I mean, managers often pinch run their second catcher in an extra innings without another catcher on the roster because they need that run to keep playing. You figure out who's playing where AFTER you extend the game.
And if the answer to all these criticisms are, "It's just an exhibition," than that is precisely the reason as to why the move should have been made. It would have been fun to see a couple guys out of position in an All-Star Game. And if the answer to that is, "The game counts, no fooling around," than Albert Pujols must see an at bat there. End of story.
I rest my case.
Saj, get us started on second half predictions.
You know, I was all set to do this: internet research, lots of reading and statistics, but I really don't want to. In lieu of any of that, here are some arbitrary statements about the next three months of baseball.
1. The Philadelphia Phillies will make the playoffs. Chase Utley will hit 45 more homeruns, the last 15 or so he'll will out of the park using only his mind and his crystal clear blue eyes. Girls you can have Cole Hamels and Grady Sizemore, the Chaser is all mine. Oh, and Brett Myers will remember that he's f****** Brett Myers. Not the beating his wife part but the good at pitching part.
2. Everyone will jump off the "Detroit Tigers are the best team in baseball" bandwagon when Curtis Granderson (of blogging fame) breaks his wrist in August and the damn thing crashes into a telephone pole. Lucky for them, the Los Angeles Angels bandwagon will pick them up when the Angels make an ill-advised trade for a hitter they don't need. None of this will prevent both these teams from being obliterated in the postseason by Boston. Angels Note: Reggie Willits will end the season hitting below .280.
3. Unless it has already happened, Ichiro will not sign an extension with Seattle. Please be aware that the rules of time do not apply to this statement. So, technically, I can't be wrong.
4. Barry Bonds will hit homeruns 755 and 756 in the same day and as he crosses homeplate the second time he will remove a mask to reveal that he is actually Mark McGwire and the real Barry Bonds has been locked in a basement since 1999. McGwire will go on to tell the media that he got the idea from the 1986 comedy "Soul Man" where a white student masquerades as an African American so that he may receive a scholarship to Harvard. McGwire will also say that he "would have gotten away with it if it weren't for those meddling kids and their damn dog."
5. The Cleveland Indians will issue an "Indian of the month" 2008 calendar as a giveaway on the last day of the season. While Grady Sizemore will be Mr. April and Travis Hafner will be Mr. May, C.C. Sabathia will be Mr. August, Mr. September, and Mr. October. The joke here is that C.C. Sabathia is fat.
6. The San Diego Padres will win the NL Pennant by sweeping the Phillies prompting Fox to go into panic mode when the Mariners take a 3-1 lead on the Red Sox in the ALCS. Before Game 5, a ski-mask clad Chris Myers will take a lead pipe to Ichiro's knee destroying Seattle's morale and saving postseason ratings from West Coast irrelevance. Ichiro will silently lament not signing that ridiculous contract the Mariners offered him back in July but then he will smile wryly because he appreciates the irony. Unless, of course, it has already happened.
Ian?
How in Mike Greenwell's name am I supposed to counter those rock solid, take-it-to-the- bank predictions? I mean, the don't even have to play the rest of the regular season anymore. Saj has figured it out for us.
Anyway, instead of building to my World Series prediction, I will start there (kind of) and work my way back. I'll start with this:
The two most important players in determining the World Series participants are the same two most important players of the 2004 season and playoffs - Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling. Simply put, those two players determine how far their respective teams advance in the playoffs.
In the case of Pedro and the New York Mets, if he looks as good as he and everyone else who has seen him says he is, the Mets will be playing in the 2007 World Series. If he's not, and especially if the Metropolitans cannot pick up another starter better than Tom Glavine, than it's the San Diego Padres in the Series. The Mets lineup is the best in the National League. All they need is two quality starters which they currently don't have. It's as simple as that.
Verdict for NL Champion
A good or better Pedro = New York
An average or worse Pedro = San Diego
Prediction - San Diego Padres, behind Jake Peavy's 2 wins and a win from David Wells and someone else, and thanks to lackluster performances from the Mets pitching staff, are in the World Series.
In the case of Schilling and the Boston Red Sox, if Schilling returns to at least 80% of the typical playoff Curt Schilling, the Red Sox are going to win the World Series. If not, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka are not enough to topple the Detroit Tigers.
Verdict for AL Champion
A good or better Schilling = Boston
An average or worse Schilling = Detroit
Prediction - Schilling, at forty years of age and decidedly out of shape, does not bounce back like he once could. Detroit matches up very well with the BoSox and takes the series in a classic seven games.
Rounding out the playoffs - Milwaukee falls apart, and a sizzling second half from Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and the Chicago Cubs' lineup gives the Cubs the NL Central. The Brew Crew and the Dodgers battle it out for the wild card, but the Dodgers' experience is victorious and earn the honor of once again traveling to New York in the first round... where they will again lose.
Over in the AL, the Yankees do make an August and September push, taking advantage of many games with Tampa, Baltimore, and Toronto. However, this postseason will give way to many "Out like the Yankees in October" jokes, as the Cleveland Indians return to the playoffs as the AL wildcard. The Tigers start their World Series run with a drubbing over the AL West Champion Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
That's it. Predictions locked in. I'll be sure to post this link again in October.
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Red Sox and Mets: On a Collision Course?
Admittedly, the Yankees aren't officially done just yet, but all signs point to them finally falling off their pedestal as Champions of the American League East. Their vanquishers, the Boston Red Sox, look to be the team to beat in the American League. Over on the Senior Circuit, it's the other New York team that is dominating their under-resourced competition. It seems inevitable to me, even as early as May 29th, that these two teams are on a collision course to meet in the World Series.
This has many implications, though I weigh two more than any other. First, Pedro against the Red Sox in the World Series, which frankly would have meant a lot more if the Sox hadn't won in 2004 with Pedro. Second, and much more appealing, Yankees fans, if baseball fans at all, will have to choose one of these two teams to root for. Of course they'd take the Mets, but that doesn't mean they'll like it.
Saj, any thoughts on a possible Red Sox-Mets World Series? Pedro? Which teams in either league are most likely to stop this scenario from playing out?
It's funny, I was talking to Roommate Rob (a Mets fan and Jets apologist) this weekend, and we agreed that 1) it's pretty clear than the Red Sox and Mets are the class of their respective leagues and 2) if a Red Sox - Mets World Series were to occur one of us would have to move out for a week and a half. Not that we're combative fans, just that baseball-related anxiety tends to be exacerbated by someone on the other side of the series from you.
As for which teams are most likely to stop this scenario, I can come up with a few. First and foremost, I just can't yet count out the Yankees. Yes, they're tied for last in the AL East. Yes, a 13.5 game hole to this Red Sox team may be insurmountable. But they're Expected Win-Loss record (based on runs scored vs. runs allowed) is a full five games better. So they're playing worse than their record AND they're picking up a pretty decent arm AND they're the f****** Yankees. So don't count them out, even if the loser of the Detroit/Cleveland AL Central sweepstakes looks like the best bet to take the wild card.
Other teams:
With the Mets probably finishing the season with the best record in the NL and the NL wild card team probably coming out of the West, they might have to face San Diego, LA or Arizona is a short series. Jake Peavy or Brandon Webb in a five game series? Yikes. Of course it's silly to speculate this far into the future. Like John-Kruk-on-Baseball-Tonight-silly.
As for AL teams: I'd worry about the Angels or the Indians if they somehow merged Cleveland's hitting with Los Angeles' bullpen and maybe also spliced Travis Hafner and Vladimir Guerrero into some sort of super baseball player like how the Constructicons created Devastator. The Tigers? They don't scare me. Not nearly as much as Magglio Ordonez's Jheri-curl. And I do realize that picture is not an accurate representation of Ordonez's tresses.
Switching gears: I was watching the Spurs-Jazz series last night and I found myself pulling for the Jazz even though I was convinced that they were evil incarnate a few weeks ago when they beat the Warriors. A few questions for you, Ian: Why do I hate the Spurs enough to cheer for a team from Utah? How is Deron Williams making Bruce Bowen look like a fool? When will Eva Longoria dump Tony Parker for me? What other questions do you want to answer?
I'm so sick of people hating on the Spurs. I guess that means I'm sick of you.
The Spurs are winners. As the NBA representative from the three major sports, they're part of the triumvirate of Winners of the last decade. They're not as likeable as the Patriots but they're not nearly as hateable as the Yankees. It's astonishing how much the average fan ends up hating winners, especially if their style of play is lacking in the aesthetics department. This was a constant criticism of New England's play during the first Superbowl run and leading up to the second: They won by 3 points, they had a system quarterback, they were lucky, they played physical and weren't pretty (except for their quarterback who's astoundingly pretty).
The Spurs don't win pretty, either. Bowen is dirtier than Paris Hilton, Ginobili flops more than a beached trout, and after a ref calls a foul on him, Tim Duncan looks like Reche Caldwell. Moreover, the Spurs, as a whole, are not your fun run and gun Phoenix Suns. They should not ever apologize for this. All of that is irrelevant to me. They play the slow it down brand of basketball that has won every NBA Championship since Riley's Lakers. Phoenix, Dallas, and Sacramento did not win in the last ten years because they play exactly the type of basketball you like to watch. But guess what. A team isn't winning until they learn to slow it down and play some f'n defense.
So quit hatin' on greatness. Four titles in a decade.
Ian, you ignorant slut.
This has many implications, though I weigh two more than any other. First, Pedro against the Red Sox in the World Series, which frankly would have meant a lot more if the Sox hadn't won in 2004 with Pedro. Second, and much more appealing, Yankees fans, if baseball fans at all, will have to choose one of these two teams to root for. Of course they'd take the Mets, but that doesn't mean they'll like it.
Saj, any thoughts on a possible Red Sox-Mets World Series? Pedro? Which teams in either league are most likely to stop this scenario from playing out?
It's funny, I was talking to Roommate Rob (a Mets fan and Jets apologist) this weekend, and we agreed that 1) it's pretty clear than the Red Sox and Mets are the class of their respective leagues and 2) if a Red Sox - Mets World Series were to occur one of us would have to move out for a week and a half. Not that we're combative fans, just that baseball-related anxiety tends to be exacerbated by someone on the other side of the series from you.
As for which teams are most likely to stop this scenario, I can come up with a few. First and foremost, I just can't yet count out the Yankees. Yes, they're tied for last in the AL East. Yes, a 13.5 game hole to this Red Sox team may be insurmountable. But they're Expected Win-Loss record (based on runs scored vs. runs allowed) is a full five games better. So they're playing worse than their record AND they're picking up a pretty decent arm AND they're the f****** Yankees. So don't count them out, even if the loser of the Detroit/Cleveland AL Central sweepstakes looks like the best bet to take the wild card.
Other teams:
With the Mets probably finishing the season with the best record in the NL and the NL wild card team probably coming out of the West, they might have to face San Diego, LA or Arizona is a short series. Jake Peavy or Brandon Webb in a five game series? Yikes. Of course it's silly to speculate this far into the future. Like John-Kruk-on-Baseball-Tonight-silly.
As for AL teams: I'd worry about the Angels or the Indians if they somehow merged Cleveland's hitting with Los Angeles' bullpen and maybe also spliced Travis Hafner and Vladimir Guerrero into some sort of super baseball player like how the Constructicons created Devastator. The Tigers? They don't scare me. Not nearly as much as Magglio Ordonez's Jheri-curl. And I do realize that picture is not an accurate representation of Ordonez's tresses.
Switching gears: I was watching the Spurs-Jazz series last night and I found myself pulling for the Jazz even though I was convinced that they were evil incarnate a few weeks ago when they beat the Warriors. A few questions for you, Ian: Why do I hate the Spurs enough to cheer for a team from Utah? How is Deron Williams making Bruce Bowen look like a fool? When will Eva Longoria dump Tony Parker for me? What other questions do you want to answer?
I'm so sick of people hating on the Spurs. I guess that means I'm sick of you.
The Spurs are winners. As the NBA representative from the three major sports, they're part of the triumvirate of Winners of the last decade. They're not as likeable as the Patriots but they're not nearly as hateable as the Yankees. It's astonishing how much the average fan ends up hating winners, especially if their style of play is lacking in the aesthetics department. This was a constant criticism of New England's play during the first Superbowl run and leading up to the second: They won by 3 points, they had a system quarterback, they were lucky, they played physical and weren't pretty (except for their quarterback who's astoundingly pretty).
The Spurs don't win pretty, either. Bowen is dirtier than Paris Hilton, Ginobili flops more than a beached trout, and after a ref calls a foul on him, Tim Duncan looks like Reche Caldwell. Moreover, the Spurs, as a whole, are not your fun run and gun Phoenix Suns. They should not ever apologize for this. All of that is irrelevant to me. They play the slow it down brand of basketball that has won every NBA Championship since Riley's Lakers. Phoenix, Dallas, and Sacramento did not win in the last ten years because they play exactly the type of basketball you like to watch. But guess what. A team isn't winning until they learn to slow it down and play some f'n defense.
So quit hatin' on greatness. Four titles in a decade.
Ian, you ignorant slut.
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Who cares about the ponies?
The answer to that question: more people than there are who care about hockey. This past weekend the overtime period of a possible elimination game in the Eastern Conference finals was booted off NBC in favor of 20 minutes of pre-race coverage of the Preakness. Now I am as indifferent to hockey as the next guy but this seems a little harsh. I mean, think of the Canadians. Won't somebody please think of the Canadians?!?!
The Canadians, like you, are totally lame. The game was still shown in Canada, but can you blame an American network for going to where the ratings are at? The steadily decrepid dignity of NBC sports does not have many cash-cows left, but the Triple Crown horse races are among them. The NHL, to put it plainly, is not. Now, guys like you and me, no friends to hockey but with an appreciation of playoff sports, not to mention an understanding of three "periods" and "overtimes," might think it's crazy to leave one of our structured sports to go to a sport which is unlike that with which we are familiar, but NBC could care less. Like NASCAR, there's a significant portion of the country that lives and dies with that horse race. Even I bet money on both, giving that money away to the casino for the Derby and to my father for the Preakness.
The point is this, if some Saturday afternoon, Fox was showing the finals of the World Shuffleboard Championship, which had just gone into extra shuffles, but the broadcast began to run into a Matsuzaka-Mussina matchup, we'd throw things at the screen if the network decided to stay on shuffleboard. Moreover, Fox would be crazy to not to go to the baseball game, as they know what makes their advertisors happy, not to mention what gets their ratings up.
Speaking of Yankees-Red Sox...does a Yankees sweep this week worry you at all?
I don't blame NBC or the viewers. I blame the NHL for being NBC's bitch when they signed the television contract.
Yes the sweep worries me. I want to bury this team. I want 11.5 games before the Rocket puts his meaty hand on a baseball in a major league park this summer. I want to find a six year old wearing an ARod t-shirt and I want to kick his baby teeth in. The point: there is blood in the water and the Boston Red Sox have a chance to finish their season half way through June.
That being said, I'm okay with losing two of three. But a Yankee sweep? Every idiot in Massachusetts will be calling WEEI.
The Canadians, like you, are totally lame. The game was still shown in Canada, but can you blame an American network for going to where the ratings are at? The steadily decrepid dignity of NBC sports does not have many cash-cows left, but the Triple Crown horse races are among them. The NHL, to put it plainly, is not. Now, guys like you and me, no friends to hockey but with an appreciation of playoff sports, not to mention an understanding of three "periods" and "overtimes," might think it's crazy to leave one of our structured sports to go to a sport which is unlike that with which we are familiar, but NBC could care less. Like NASCAR, there's a significant portion of the country that lives and dies with that horse race. Even I bet money on both, giving that money away to the casino for the Derby and to my father for the Preakness.
The point is this, if some Saturday afternoon, Fox was showing the finals of the World Shuffleboard Championship, which had just gone into extra shuffles, but the broadcast began to run into a Matsuzaka-Mussina matchup, we'd throw things at the screen if the network decided to stay on shuffleboard. Moreover, Fox would be crazy to not to go to the baseball game, as they know what makes their advertisors happy, not to mention what gets their ratings up.
Speaking of Yankees-Red Sox...does a Yankees sweep this week worry you at all?
I don't blame NBC or the viewers. I blame the NHL for being NBC's bitch when they signed the television contract.
Yes the sweep worries me. I want to bury this team. I want 11.5 games before the Rocket puts his meaty hand on a baseball in a major league park this summer. I want to find a six year old wearing an ARod t-shirt and I want to kick his baby teeth in. The point: there is blood in the water and the Boston Red Sox have a chance to finish their season half way through June.
That being said, I'm okay with losing two of three. But a Yankee sweep? Every idiot in Massachusetts will be calling WEEI.
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
Remy and Orsillo: the best broadcast team in baseball
And speaking of why I think Jerry Remy and Don Orsillo are the best broadcasters in baseball:
Red Sox Love
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I swear, Remy and Orsillo deserve some sort of Super-Emmy since regular Emmys are worthless and nobody knows what the Cable Ace Awards are.
Red Sox Love
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They're laughing so hard they barely call the double play that ends the inning. And thank G*d for that double play, otherwise who knows how far Manny would have gotten. Of all people, noted psychopath and Gathright-puncher Julian Tavarez?!? I felt like I was watching Oz, and I've never seen the show. Between this and the Pizza throwing Masshole...
I swear, Remy and Orsillo deserve some sort of Super-Emmy since regular Emmys are worthless and nobody knows what the Cable Ace Awards are.
Roger Clemens: Greedy Villain or Villainously Greedy
How long until Yankee fans plunge off Cloud Nine, and while hurdling at an ever quickening speed towards the earth, realize that Roger Clemens is not a parachute?
How long before they realize he never pitched more than seven innings last year for the Houston Astros, and only pitched seven innings five times? How long before they realize that their bullpen is taxed enough? That bringing in a 5-6 inning pitcher is not a good idea?
How long before they realize that the best hitting opponent in the NL Central last year (St. Louis Cardinals) was ranked 14th in major league baseball in batting average, with the other four teams ranked 26th and lower?
How long before they realize his five years with the Yankees produced ERA's not of the 2.98, 1.87, 2.30 variety that he earned in Houston, but of 4.60, 3.70, 3.51, 4.35, and 3.91, and that was in his late 30's?
In sum, with Clemens at 44 (45 in August), how long until they realize he's returning to the AL East, with better lineups both in the division and the American League, needing to throw more pitches (quality ones at that) than he did in the NL, thereby throwing less innings, thereby making the Yankees' bullpen throw more innings, thereby tiring them out by September and October, when the lineups become even tougher? How long until they realize they spent a record contract to get a 44-year-old with all of the above going against him?
Saj, come November, will the Yankees organization and will Yankee fans be happy they made this signing?
Sure, why not? I'm not a fatalist but I do think it was inevitable that Roger Clemens would pitch in a Yankees uniform this season. After an April like they had Roger's theatrical 7th inning announcement on Sunday was a foregone conclusion. But how much does this really help the Yankees? Very little I say. But that very little could be important. Let's say that Roger's value over a replacement player (say Igawa, Karstens, etc.) is probably less than people are saying. He's still a 6 inning pitcher and even if those six innings are very good that's still three your beleaguered bullpen will have to pitch. Best case scenario: Roger, from June 1 until the end of the season, is worth one to four more wins than a replacement pitcher. That doesn't seem like a lot, and it isn't. But if you're the Yankees and you're competing for a division title, four wins at the top side of the bell curve can be huge. This all goes back to the marginal cost of wins in baseball: as you get closer to the top of the league for each win you will have to pay more. Apparently the Yankees think that paying Roger between $5 million and $20 million a win is a worthwhile investment- not to mention keeping those wins away from the Red Sox.
That being said, Clemens landed where he should have landed. Plain and simple, he would have helped the Red Sox, with their great (so far, knock on wood) pen and their big three starters, much less than he will help the Yankees, especially if you consider Lester vs. Igawa/Karstens as the replacement players. Why not go somewhere where a large segment of the fans don't hate you and you could potentially be the best pitcher on the staff instead of the fourth best? This is all a moot point anyway, Clemens won't even be a top ten pitcher in the American League, let alone all of baseball.
How long before they realize he never pitched more than seven innings last year for the Houston Astros, and only pitched seven innings five times? How long before they realize that their bullpen is taxed enough? That bringing in a 5-6 inning pitcher is not a good idea?
How long before they realize that the best hitting opponent in the NL Central last year (St. Louis Cardinals) was ranked 14th in major league baseball in batting average, with the other four teams ranked 26th and lower?
How long before they realize his five years with the Yankees produced ERA's not of the 2.98, 1.87, 2.30 variety that he earned in Houston, but of 4.60, 3.70, 3.51, 4.35, and 3.91, and that was in his late 30's?
In sum, with Clemens at 44 (45 in August), how long until they realize he's returning to the AL East, with better lineups both in the division and the American League, needing to throw more pitches (quality ones at that) than he did in the NL, thereby throwing less innings, thereby making the Yankees' bullpen throw more innings, thereby tiring them out by September and October, when the lineups become even tougher? How long until they realize they spent a record contract to get a 44-year-old with all of the above going against him?
Saj, come November, will the Yankees organization and will Yankee fans be happy they made this signing?
Sure, why not? I'm not a fatalist but I do think it was inevitable that Roger Clemens would pitch in a Yankees uniform this season. After an April like they had Roger's theatrical 7th inning announcement on Sunday was a foregone conclusion. But how much does this really help the Yankees? Very little I say. But that very little could be important. Let's say that Roger's value over a replacement player (say Igawa, Karstens, etc.) is probably less than people are saying. He's still a 6 inning pitcher and even if those six innings are very good that's still three your beleaguered bullpen will have to pitch. Best case scenario: Roger, from June 1 until the end of the season, is worth one to four more wins than a replacement pitcher. That doesn't seem like a lot, and it isn't. But if you're the Yankees and you're competing for a division title, four wins at the top side of the bell curve can be huge. This all goes back to the marginal cost of wins in baseball: as you get closer to the top of the league for each win you will have to pay more. Apparently the Yankees think that paying Roger between $5 million and $20 million a win is a worthwhile investment- not to mention keeping those wins away from the Red Sox.
That being said, Clemens landed where he should have landed. Plain and simple, he would have helped the Red Sox, with their great (so far, knock on wood) pen and their big three starters, much less than he will help the Yankees, especially if you consider Lester vs. Igawa/Karstens as the replacement players. Why not go somewhere where a large segment of the fans don't hate you and you could potentially be the best pitcher on the staff instead of the fourth best? This is all a moot point anyway, Clemens won't even be a top ten pitcher in the American League, let alone all of baseball.
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
MLB: Two weeks in
Quick little plug for my Presidential Politics blog...Much like Saj and I posting everyday in the month of March with our baseball preview, I am making nine straight days of posts during my April vacation.
Anyway, random thoughts on random teams in baseball.
Arizona - They should be pretty happy with baseball's fourth best record and Randy Johnson not yet with the big club. Brandon Webb is a nice anchor, but to get a quality #2 starter will go a long way into maintaining a solid record. Now we just have to see if Johnson can return to quality.
Atlanta - Funny how much easier things are when your bullpen is three-deep.
Baltimore - I really feel bad for these fans. At 7-6 and a game out, they must be optimistic. But how much longer can Eric Bedard and Daniel Cabrera pitch well?
Cleveland & Seattle - They've played nine and eight games, respectively, which is 50% less than many teams. Not only does this throw them off their rhythm now, but they'll be playing double headers in the dog days.
Kansas City - At 3-10, the worst record in baseball. The more things change...
LA Dodgers - Best record in baseball... and Grady Little in charge come postseason time.
Milwaukee - Awww, these guys are so cute on top of their division.
NY Mets - This lineup is scary and it will come around when the weather warms up. The starting pitching is as eclectic as it gets...we'll see if it can hold together for six months.
NY Yankees - This pitching staff is in shambles. SHAMBLES I TELL YOU! Still, it looks as if there's a chance they can line up both Pettitte and Wang for the weekend's showdown at Fenway.
Boston - Starting pitching looks great. Bullpen has been solid and has yet to be involved in a decision. The offense is consistent. The manager is experienced. This is the best team in baseball.
Anyway, random thoughts on random teams in baseball.
Arizona - They should be pretty happy with baseball's fourth best record and Randy Johnson not yet with the big club. Brandon Webb is a nice anchor, but to get a quality #2 starter will go a long way into maintaining a solid record. Now we just have to see if Johnson can return to quality.
Atlanta - Funny how much easier things are when your bullpen is three-deep.
Baltimore - I really feel bad for these fans. At 7-6 and a game out, they must be optimistic. But how much longer can Eric Bedard and Daniel Cabrera pitch well?
Cleveland & Seattle - They've played nine and eight games, respectively, which is 50% less than many teams. Not only does this throw them off their rhythm now, but they'll be playing double headers in the dog days.
Kansas City - At 3-10, the worst record in baseball. The more things change...
LA Dodgers - Best record in baseball... and Grady Little in charge come postseason time.
Milwaukee - Awww, these guys are so cute on top of their division.
NY Mets - This lineup is scary and it will come around when the weather warms up. The starting pitching is as eclectic as it gets...we'll see if it can hold together for six months.
NY Yankees - This pitching staff is in shambles. SHAMBLES I TELL YOU! Still, it looks as if there's a chance they can line up both Pettitte and Wang for the weekend's showdown at Fenway.
Boston - Starting pitching looks great. Bullpen has been solid and has yet to be involved in a decision. The offense is consistent. The manager is experienced. This is the best team in baseball.
Thursday, April 05, 2007
The Greatest Baseball Preview in America: Conclusion
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: Trillionaires Collide!*
*Might be overstating it a bit.
The day before the season's first full slate of games, Saj and I will break down the greatest rivalry in sports this side of Sorenstam-Pak. This rivalry, first born out of tradition and mutual disdain, has evolved into baseball version of the Cold War, with each side outspending all other competitors in the time-honored male activity of oneupsmanship. The last two seasons have had the New York Yankees spending over 200 million dollars each year, an accomplishment no other American sports organization has ever come close to. While the Red Sox stood a solid 70 million behind, that was still enough to be comfortably ahead of the third highest spender. Now the rough 2007 numbers have the Red Sox approaching 160 million, while the Yanks have only slightly trimmed down their gargantuan budget.
But now 'tis the season to see how well money can swing a bat and paint the corner. Time to break it down, position by position. Saj and I will alternate posting and responding at each position. Tomorrow afternoon, check back in for our official predictions of the 2007 season. We will then take a week off to recooperate from the longest month of our lives. (My fingers won't stop bleeding.)
Once again, my font is in bold, while Saj's font is regular. Without further ago, the conclusion to our month long baseball preview:
THE BOSTON RED SOX AND THE NEW YORK YANKEES
CATCHER
To properly gauge who has the better catcher, one needs to decide what is the catcher's most important job on the team. Is it to provide good hitting to extend the potence of a lineup? Is it to be a human backstop behind the plate? Is it to be a de facto leader of the team? Is it to handle the pitching staff? The Red Sox and Yankees have two of the better catchers of the last six to eight years, but of late they have become known as such for two different reasons. Jorge Posada has consistently been one of the top hitting catchers in the game. He has hit 20 or more homeruns in six of the last seven seasons (the other season was 19). Last season he hit 24 home runs, drove in 93 runs, and played 143 games while hitting an admirable .277. As a switch hitter, he's more than a catcher, but an asset at the plate.
Jason Varitek, meanwhile, is much more of an asset behind the plate. His offensive numbers are in steady declinaton, but no one in baseball calls a better game or handles a pitching staff with as much skill. His powers of making a pitcher their best even extend into the fantasy realm. Last year, my fantasy baseball team, brilliantly named Cheney's Pacemaker, was in first place right through August. However, in mid-August at our trade deadline, I decided to shore up my last week link before the playoffs, and traded Varitek in a deal for Josh Willingham. My pitching staff promptly fell apart, and my first place regular season team lost in the semi-finals. That is the power of Varitek.
Lately, of course, mentioning power and Varitek in the same sentence is impossible. He looked increasingly terrible at the plate last year and looks atrocious this spring, hitting barely over .100. So we return to the beginning of this verbose catcher preview. Which do I prioritize as the chief task of the catcher? While all are important, I'll take the guy that can lower my pitching staff's ERA. Slight Edge: Red Sox
Ian, I agree with you. Posada is a better hitting catcher (Varitek will be atrocious at the plate this year), which may be more valuable than a catcher's effect on a pitching staff (great BP article), but as they both enter their age 35 season I just can't see Posada hitting like he used to which is where the bulk of his value lies. As far as more conventional defensive stats Posada has given up 43 passed balls in the last four years to Varitek's 11 and while Posada has a better caught-stealing percentage, people tend to run on him more for whatever reason and that could skew the numbers. In the end I give the edge to Varitek because there is no way in hell Posada could ever grow such an awesome goatee. And do I even have to mention how awesome THIS was? Edge: Red Sox.
FIRST BASE
The Yankees are a mystifying team in that for all their All-stars they always have one or two fundamentally terrible players in their lineup. Karim Garcia was one. Miguel Cairo was another. And the list goes on. In the spirit of that time-honored tradition, the 2007 Yankees have handed the first base reins over to the two-headed monster that is the Doug Mientkiewicz/Josh Phelps experience. Mientkiewicz is very, very bad at the plate. And while good, he's overrated as a defensive specialist. I think it was Confucius who said, "Fielding first base better than Kevin Millar is like beating a cripple in a footrace. You may win but that does not make you Jesse Owens." And that Confucius was a smart fella, I'll tell you that much. Oh, and Giambi might suit up at first for a few games (especially in inter-league play). Get ready to Tivo that steroid-fueled three ring circus. The guy can barely touch his toes with a yardstick.
Meanwhile the Red Sox are suiting up a man affectionately known to all as "The Greek God of Walks." Kevin Youkilis is an on-base machine who, as a transplanted third baseman, plays plus defense. He's very well suited to hit second ahead of Manny Ortez and the gang. Edge: Red Sox.
Am I the only one who was surprised that the Yankees didn't enter the now over Todd Helton talks? Either they upgrade at first base OR they drive up the price on the Sox. Giambi out of the infield is truly addition by subtraction, and the Yankees have enough hitting as it is, so I don't blame them for trying to shore up the defense of their entire infield (Can you say E-Rod?) by starting better defensive first basemen. Still, one cannot deny the pluses Youkilis brings to the table as a perfect table setter for the Sox loaded middle of the order. I'd like to see him hitting #1 or #2 all year. The Yankees platoon, defensively, is not far superior to Youkilis', but they will be a very weak spot in the Yankees offense, while Youkilis is an intergral part of the Sox' lineup. Edge: Red Sox
SECOND BASE
By the end of this season, Robinson Cano will be Yankees fans' second favorite player after his double play partner. He will hit well over .300, play a decent second base, and make every Yankee fan proud that he's one of the few players that came up through the system. The Red Sox counter with their own home grown product, Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia has been a name good Red Sox fans have known for a couple years. The 2007 season was always his target date of arrival, but now that he's here, Sox fans are more nervous than excited. With Hanley Ramirez, Freddy Sanchez, and Anibal Sanchez doing so well as ex-Red Sox farm products, Sox fans might become furious that the one that remained was the one that didn't amount to anything. Edge: Yankees
Agreed, Cano is good. Nothing to add. Edge: Yankees.
SHORTSTOP
This guy versus this guy? Long story short I am finally willing to admit that I want to be Derek Jeter. For the longest time I was 100% sure Jeter was overrated but he had a MVP-caliber season last year and he's shored up his spotty defense in recent years. He's still overrated by Yankee fans but he's a Hall-of-Famer in both the sport of baseball and the sport of banging impossibly hot and famous women. And for some goddamn reason the Red Sox paid Julio Lugo $36 million. Edge: Yankees.
Nah, I gotta take Lugo over Jeter. And then I'll take the Yankees to go all the way. Both statements are laughable. Edge: Yankees.
THIRD BASE
Man, this hurts. Where's Scott Cooper when you need him? Mike Lowell is respectable. He works hard, he's a good clubhouse guy, he can hit for power and hit in the gaps. Defensively, he plays a great third base. He has a goatee. And that's about it. He's not getting any younger and this will probably be his last year in Boston. On the Yankees' side, we have what could be the most talented player in the game. Sure, he's a bigger head case than Jason Voorhees, but he's still a five tool player who scares you for six innings a game and 140 games a year. Unless you're David Wright or Miguel Cabrera, the third base matchup will always go to the Bronx Bombers. Edge: Yankees.
I don't want to talk about it. Edge: Yankees
OUTFIELD
Very difficult to tell this one. So I'm going to say it's a wash. A healthy Coco Crisp and a healthy J.D. Drew alongside Manny Ramirez could eclipse the production of the vaunted Yankees outfield of Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, and Johnny Damon. All three of them aren't getting any younger and Matsui might be the only to reach upper 20's in homeruns. But they'll stay healthy which is more than you can say for the Red Sox. Edge: Even
What are you smoking? *Editor's note: You know what I'm smoking* As a whole this Yankee outfield is easily better than the Red Sox outfield. One by one, it's Manny over Matsui, but Damon and Abreu by a mile over Crisp and Drew. Edge: Yankees
DESIGNATED HITTER
Whew. Big Papi puts a stop to this Yankees run of four straight edges since the Sox took the first two. Giambi is a very good hitter. Nice OBP. Good eye. Good power, especially at Yankee Stadium. But David Ortiz is the best designated hitter in the league, and one of the top five hitters in all of baseball. Edge: Red Sox
Completely in agreement. Jason Giambi IS a very good hitter and his last two seasons in Oakland were actually statistically better than anything anyone else (not named Barry Bonds) has done in the last two decades of baseball, including Pujols, Hafner, and Ramirez. but Giambi is five or six seasons removed from those seasons and presumably from steroid abuse. He's still a dangerous hitter in a pro-lefty park but David Ortiz is 1B to Hafner's 1A in terms of the best DH's in the league. And he has the Papi-mystique, the 500-foot homeruns, the personality, and the second-best righthanded hitter in the game protecting him in the lineup. Simply put, David Ortiz is the best non-Ryan Howard bet to hit 60 homeruns this year. Edge: Red Sox
LINEUP
Edge: Yankees
Quick lineup note: It's easy to forget how good the Yankees lineup actually is. They lead the league in runs scored last year (scoring runs being the principle objective of an offense) by 60 and they are a good bet to do it again. But Cano is their only regular younger than 31 and their defense is weak. Edge: Yankees
PITCHING
I'm really happy to state this: the Red Sox have an unequivocally better pitching staff than the Yankees. You can't even argue this point. Top to the bottom in the rotation, and even, finally, in the bullpen. Schilling, even despite his opening day hiccup, Beckett, and Matsuzaka might be baseball's best top three and with Papelbon closing and guys like Romero, Donnelly, Pineiro, Timlin around to set up, this Red Sox bullpen is the best it has been since the days of Hipolito Pichardo and Rich Garces. Meanwhile the Yankees had to start THIS GUY on opening day, Andy Pettitte is sporting grey streaks in his hair (and a balky back), Mike Mussina will be 38 this season, and Chien-Ming Wang started the season on the DL with a strained right hamstring. Hamstring injuries don't just fade away (SEE ALSO: Junior Griffey) and his right leg is the one he uses to push off the rubber. How effective will his power sinker really be this season? Speaking of power sinkers, don't you need a good infield defense to complement them? I guess Brian Cashman never got that memo. And their bullpen looks just about as crappy as any other Yankees bullpen since they overused Tom Gordon and Paul Quantrill: cross your fingers for a few innings and let Mariano Rivera dominate the ninth. In the end the Yankees will score enough runs to make the playoffs in spite of their pitching, but to stick around in the playoffs I'll take Schilling, Beckett, and Daisuke. Edge: Red Sox.
My thoughts almost exactly. Though your comparison of lineups reeked of bias, this pitching comparison is spot on. I don't have anything else to add to the starters. For the bullpen, I'd say that Joel Piniero does not help ones argument when discussing the strength of Boston's bullpen. (I expect him to be traded soon.) Who you did forget was Craig Hansen and Manny Del Carmen, who are both very young, improving, and won't have to be relied upon to get big outs in the 8th and 9th. Papelbon's move to the bullpen I did not agree with, but it did mean that Boston's bullpen became a strength, as Romero, Timlin, and Donnelly is actually a damned good trio of set up men. Edge: Red Sox.
Final tally:
Yankees 4
Red Sox 4
Here we go again.
Ian calling me a biased sports fan is like Mussolini calling FDR a fascist.
Saj using humor as a defense mechanism is as automatic as Papelbon in the ninth.
Previous Previews
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Al East
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
AL Central
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
Kansas City Royals
AL West
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
NATIONAL LEAGUE
NL East
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Florida Marlins
Washington Nationals
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals
Houston Astros
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
NL West
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
*Might be overstating it a bit.
The day before the season's first full slate of games, Saj and I will break down the greatest rivalry in sports this side of Sorenstam-Pak. This rivalry, first born out of tradition and mutual disdain, has evolved into baseball version of the Cold War, with each side outspending all other competitors in the time-honored male activity of oneupsmanship. The last two seasons have had the New York Yankees spending over 200 million dollars each year, an accomplishment no other American sports organization has ever come close to. While the Red Sox stood a solid 70 million behind, that was still enough to be comfortably ahead of the third highest spender. Now the rough 2007 numbers have the Red Sox approaching 160 million, while the Yanks have only slightly trimmed down their gargantuan budget.
But now 'tis the season to see how well money can swing a bat and paint the corner. Time to break it down, position by position. Saj and I will alternate posting and responding at each position. Tomorrow afternoon, check back in for our official predictions of the 2007 season. We will then take a week off to recooperate from the longest month of our lives. (My fingers won't stop bleeding.)
Once again, my font is in bold, while Saj's font is regular. Without further ago, the conclusion to our month long baseball preview:
THE BOSTON RED SOX AND THE NEW YORK YANKEES
CATCHER
To properly gauge who has the better catcher, one needs to decide what is the catcher's most important job on the team. Is it to provide good hitting to extend the potence of a lineup? Is it to be a human backstop behind the plate? Is it to be a de facto leader of the team? Is it to handle the pitching staff? The Red Sox and Yankees have two of the better catchers of the last six to eight years, but of late they have become known as such for two different reasons. Jorge Posada has consistently been one of the top hitting catchers in the game. He has hit 20 or more homeruns in six of the last seven seasons (the other season was 19). Last season he hit 24 home runs, drove in 93 runs, and played 143 games while hitting an admirable .277. As a switch hitter, he's more than a catcher, but an asset at the plate.
Jason Varitek, meanwhile, is much more of an asset behind the plate. His offensive numbers are in steady declinaton, but no one in baseball calls a better game or handles a pitching staff with as much skill. His powers of making a pitcher their best even extend into the fantasy realm. Last year, my fantasy baseball team, brilliantly named Cheney's Pacemaker, was in first place right through August. However, in mid-August at our trade deadline, I decided to shore up my last week link before the playoffs, and traded Varitek in a deal for Josh Willingham. My pitching staff promptly fell apart, and my first place regular season team lost in the semi-finals. That is the power of Varitek.
Lately, of course, mentioning power and Varitek in the same sentence is impossible. He looked increasingly terrible at the plate last year and looks atrocious this spring, hitting barely over .100. So we return to the beginning of this verbose catcher preview. Which do I prioritize as the chief task of the catcher? While all are important, I'll take the guy that can lower my pitching staff's ERA. Slight Edge: Red Sox
Ian, I agree with you. Posada is a better hitting catcher (Varitek will be atrocious at the plate this year), which may be more valuable than a catcher's effect on a pitching staff (great BP article), but as they both enter their age 35 season I just can't see Posada hitting like he used to which is where the bulk of his value lies. As far as more conventional defensive stats Posada has given up 43 passed balls in the last four years to Varitek's 11 and while Posada has a better caught-stealing percentage, people tend to run on him more for whatever reason and that could skew the numbers. In the end I give the edge to Varitek because there is no way in hell Posada could ever grow such an awesome goatee. And do I even have to mention how awesome THIS was? Edge: Red Sox.
FIRST BASE
The Yankees are a mystifying team in that for all their All-stars they always have one or two fundamentally terrible players in their lineup. Karim Garcia was one. Miguel Cairo was another. And the list goes on. In the spirit of that time-honored tradition, the 2007 Yankees have handed the first base reins over to the two-headed monster that is the Doug Mientkiewicz/Josh Phelps experience. Mientkiewicz is very, very bad at the plate. And while good, he's overrated as a defensive specialist. I think it was Confucius who said, "Fielding first base better than Kevin Millar is like beating a cripple in a footrace. You may win but that does not make you Jesse Owens." And that Confucius was a smart fella, I'll tell you that much. Oh, and Giambi might suit up at first for a few games (especially in inter-league play). Get ready to Tivo that steroid-fueled three ring circus. The guy can barely touch his toes with a yardstick.
Meanwhile the Red Sox are suiting up a man affectionately known to all as "The Greek God of Walks." Kevin Youkilis is an on-base machine who, as a transplanted third baseman, plays plus defense. He's very well suited to hit second ahead of Manny Ortez and the gang. Edge: Red Sox.
Am I the only one who was surprised that the Yankees didn't enter the now over Todd Helton talks? Either they upgrade at first base OR they drive up the price on the Sox. Giambi out of the infield is truly addition by subtraction, and the Yankees have enough hitting as it is, so I don't blame them for trying to shore up the defense of their entire infield (Can you say E-Rod?) by starting better defensive first basemen. Still, one cannot deny the pluses Youkilis brings to the table as a perfect table setter for the Sox loaded middle of the order. I'd like to see him hitting #1 or #2 all year. The Yankees platoon, defensively, is not far superior to Youkilis', but they will be a very weak spot in the Yankees offense, while Youkilis is an intergral part of the Sox' lineup. Edge: Red Sox
SECOND BASE
By the end of this season, Robinson Cano will be Yankees fans' second favorite player after his double play partner. He will hit well over .300, play a decent second base, and make every Yankee fan proud that he's one of the few players that came up through the system. The Red Sox counter with their own home grown product, Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia has been a name good Red Sox fans have known for a couple years. The 2007 season was always his target date of arrival, but now that he's here, Sox fans are more nervous than excited. With Hanley Ramirez, Freddy Sanchez, and Anibal Sanchez doing so well as ex-Red Sox farm products, Sox fans might become furious that the one that remained was the one that didn't amount to anything. Edge: Yankees
Agreed, Cano is good. Nothing to add. Edge: Yankees.
SHORTSTOP
This guy versus this guy? Long story short I am finally willing to admit that I want to be Derek Jeter. For the longest time I was 100% sure Jeter was overrated but he had a MVP-caliber season last year and he's shored up his spotty defense in recent years. He's still overrated by Yankee fans but he's a Hall-of-Famer in both the sport of baseball and the sport of banging impossibly hot and famous women. And for some goddamn reason the Red Sox paid Julio Lugo $36 million. Edge: Yankees.
Nah, I gotta take Lugo over Jeter. And then I'll take the Yankees to go all the way. Both statements are laughable. Edge: Yankees.
THIRD BASE
Man, this hurts. Where's Scott Cooper when you need him? Mike Lowell is respectable. He works hard, he's a good clubhouse guy, he can hit for power and hit in the gaps. Defensively, he plays a great third base. He has a goatee. And that's about it. He's not getting any younger and this will probably be his last year in Boston. On the Yankees' side, we have what could be the most talented player in the game. Sure, he's a bigger head case than Jason Voorhees, but he's still a five tool player who scares you for six innings a game and 140 games a year. Unless you're David Wright or Miguel Cabrera, the third base matchup will always go to the Bronx Bombers. Edge: Yankees.
I don't want to talk about it. Edge: Yankees
OUTFIELD
Very difficult to tell this one. So I'm going to say it's a wash. A healthy Coco Crisp and a healthy J.D. Drew alongside Manny Ramirez could eclipse the production of the vaunted Yankees outfield of Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, and Johnny Damon. All three of them aren't getting any younger and Matsui might be the only to reach upper 20's in homeruns. But they'll stay healthy which is more than you can say for the Red Sox. Edge: Even
What are you smoking? *Editor's note: You know what I'm smoking* As a whole this Yankee outfield is easily better than the Red Sox outfield. One by one, it's Manny over Matsui, but Damon and Abreu by a mile over Crisp and Drew. Edge: Yankees
DESIGNATED HITTER
Whew. Big Papi puts a stop to this Yankees run of four straight edges since the Sox took the first two. Giambi is a very good hitter. Nice OBP. Good eye. Good power, especially at Yankee Stadium. But David Ortiz is the best designated hitter in the league, and one of the top five hitters in all of baseball. Edge: Red Sox
Completely in agreement. Jason Giambi IS a very good hitter and his last two seasons in Oakland were actually statistically better than anything anyone else (not named Barry Bonds) has done in the last two decades of baseball, including Pujols, Hafner, and Ramirez. but Giambi is five or six seasons removed from those seasons and presumably from steroid abuse. He's still a dangerous hitter in a pro-lefty park but David Ortiz is 1B to Hafner's 1A in terms of the best DH's in the league. And he has the Papi-mystique, the 500-foot homeruns, the personality, and the second-best righthanded hitter in the game protecting him in the lineup. Simply put, David Ortiz is the best non-Ryan Howard bet to hit 60 homeruns this year. Edge: Red Sox
LINEUP
Edge: Yankees
Quick lineup note: It's easy to forget how good the Yankees lineup actually is. They lead the league in runs scored last year (scoring runs being the principle objective of an offense) by 60 and they are a good bet to do it again. But Cano is their only regular younger than 31 and their defense is weak. Edge: Yankees
PITCHING
I'm really happy to state this: the Red Sox have an unequivocally better pitching staff than the Yankees. You can't even argue this point. Top to the bottom in the rotation, and even, finally, in the bullpen. Schilling, even despite his opening day hiccup, Beckett, and Matsuzaka might be baseball's best top three and with Papelbon closing and guys like Romero, Donnelly, Pineiro, Timlin around to set up, this Red Sox bullpen is the best it has been since the days of Hipolito Pichardo and Rich Garces. Meanwhile the Yankees had to start THIS GUY on opening day, Andy Pettitte is sporting grey streaks in his hair (and a balky back), Mike Mussina will be 38 this season, and Chien-Ming Wang started the season on the DL with a strained right hamstring. Hamstring injuries don't just fade away (SEE ALSO: Junior Griffey) and his right leg is the one he uses to push off the rubber. How effective will his power sinker really be this season? Speaking of power sinkers, don't you need a good infield defense to complement them? I guess Brian Cashman never got that memo. And their bullpen looks just about as crappy as any other Yankees bullpen since they overused Tom Gordon and Paul Quantrill: cross your fingers for a few innings and let Mariano Rivera dominate the ninth. In the end the Yankees will score enough runs to make the playoffs in spite of their pitching, but to stick around in the playoffs I'll take Schilling, Beckett, and Daisuke. Edge: Red Sox.
My thoughts almost exactly. Though your comparison of lineups reeked of bias, this pitching comparison is spot on. I don't have anything else to add to the starters. For the bullpen, I'd say that Joel Piniero does not help ones argument when discussing the strength of Boston's bullpen. (I expect him to be traded soon.) Who you did forget was Craig Hansen and Manny Del Carmen, who are both very young, improving, and won't have to be relied upon to get big outs in the 8th and 9th. Papelbon's move to the bullpen I did not agree with, but it did mean that Boston's bullpen became a strength, as Romero, Timlin, and Donnelly is actually a damned good trio of set up men. Edge: Red Sox.
Final tally:
Yankees 4
Red Sox 4
Here we go again.
Ian calling me a biased sports fan is like Mussolini calling FDR a fascist.
Saj using humor as a defense mechanism is as automatic as Papelbon in the ninth.
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