Editors' note: Every week, these two idiots will play a Pick 'Em NFL game. The object is for each editor to pick four seemingly even NFL matchups from the upcoming weekend, challenging the other pick to the winners. A running record will be tallied. Feel free to play along at home. Leave comments with your own picks if you want to go on the record. Standings (Last week in parenthesis).
Standings (Last week in parenthesis)
Ian 16-8 (3-1)
Saj 10-14 (0-4)
10:07 AM
What in God's name happened to you last week? You fell for two traps (Lions, Philly) but in the other two we both got completely blindsided (Chargers, Cardinals). When making the 2nd set of picks in any given week, a clear disadvantage, I like to go with games where I could see how the underdog could win, even if I myself wouldn't pick them. Last week was the first time this plan worked flawlessly. You, sir, have some work to do.
Does your comeback begin this week? Let's find out.
Arizona at Green Bay (Sunday, 1:00) stalwarts
NY Jets at Cleveland (Sunday, 4:15) *snickers*
Indianapolis at Denver (Sunday, 4:15) You can run in circles on this one
Dallas at Carolina (Sunday, 8:15) be careful
The Philly game? Trap? Absolutely not. If not for Ronde Barber (who did an excellent job on both those interceptions) and a freak 62 yard field goal from Matt Bryant (ESPN: "Nothing in Matt Bryant's career suggested he was capable of making the kick of his life.") Tampa Bay does what they should have done. And that is lose. As for the Lions game, I knew what I was doing. An impartial party takes the Jets there. But I'm not impartial nor do I have any integrity. F*** the Jets. F*** them.
Speaking of the f****** Jets, thanks giving me their game, again. I really appreciate it. I do. For you:
Atlanta at Cincinnati (Sunday, 1:00) If before last season you asked me who would blow out his knee first, Carson Palmer or Michael Vick, I would probably have bet my life savings ($102.45) on Vick.
Baltimore at New Orleans (Sunday, 1:00) Reggie Bush!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'm not sure if that's enough exclamation points.
St. Louis at San Diego (Sunday, 4:05) Shawne Merriman: Steroid-abuser or steroid-abuser? Discuss.
Houston at Tennessee (Sunday, 1:00) Featuring the frontrunners for the Most Awkward Release by a Quarterback ESPY.
Go to town.
6:20 PM
I thought Tampa was going to win that game. They did win in some crazy, improbable ways, but they ended up winning nonetheless. As for this week, you gave me some good matchups, only one of which I feel comfortable picking. Good thing I have such an enormous lead, huh?
Game 1: Atlanta @ Cincinatti: These are the proto-typical 'above average' teams who probably aren't playing in their conferences championship game, but hold out hope that they might. They have 5-6 seed written all over them. I think Cincinatti is the slightly better team of the two, and here's why: First, their conference and division is better, so 5-6 seed potential means more for the Bengals than the Falcons. Second, Vick is definitely showing some of his deficiencies as an NFL quarterback. Third, the Bengals are proving to be more of a complete team than the Falcons, even if they can't handle physical teams as well. Atlanta relies on their speed, not their physicality. Fourth, Ocho Cinco is ready for a juego grande. The Bengals should handle the Falcons this weekend, especially on Cincinatti turf. Pick: Cincinatti
Game 2: Baltimore @ New Orleans: Is this the week the Ravens can run the ball again? Once they do, they'll be a contender. The problem, obviously, is that Jamal Lewis is playing like Richard Lewis (I honestly couldn't think of a better Lewis metaphor). Defenses are good enough to consistently win football games only if the offense can either A) run the ball well, B) throw the ball well, or C) do each so-so. Right now, the Ravens don't fit into any of that critereon. This road game against the upstart Saints can go either way, but it's on Jamal Lewis having a good game. It's too bad Jamal Lewis will use the sub-sealevel status of New Orleans as a justification to get high some time this weekend. Pick: New Orleans
Game 3: Houston @ Tennesee: Say want you will about the struggling Titans franchise, but they try hard every week. They played Indy really tough, then they beat Washington. Kudos to Jeff Fisher. They should grind this one out and feel good about going back to back...and then kick themselves come draft time when they're picking after the top 5 and miss out on a receiver for Vince Young. Pick: Tennessee
Game 4: St. Louis @ San Diego: Hmmmm... A borderline NFC playoff team on the road against a top 4 AFC team. Pick: San Diego.
Sunday-11:45 AM
Saj has had trouble with the Internet for a few days, so he has just relayed his picks to me via telephone. Arizona, Cleveland, Denver, Carolina. I would have taken Green Bay, the Jets, and Indy...but you know Saj and his craziness.
Friday, October 27, 2006
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
NFL: Week 7 Recap
7:09 AM
I: I will say this: the Bledsoe interception was terrible. Just terrible. I was shocked, however, that he was lifted for the second half. After a rough start, which the whole country could see was due to a terrible Offensive Line, Bledsoe started moving that offense. The O-Line was so bad that they started rolling out Drew Bledsoe to buy him time, and he had success doing this. They were down 12-7 at half. Last week they had 3 points at half against Houston, and broke out in the second half. I am shocked that Parcells buried the Dallas season after 7 weeks, just to satisfy some unknowledgeable fans who think Tony Romo is the next Tom Brady. This just in: Backup quarterbacks with no playing experience should not be playing when a team is a contender. Take your lumps with your vet. It's why McNair and Brunell have jobs. Fans fell in love with the Romo story, and the fact that his name was Romo. If his name was Horowitz, he never would have endeared himself to Dallas fandom. I truly believe this.
Anyway, my point is, the winner of that game was in first place and they were only down 5 at the half after getting the last score of the half. To make that move then was unacceptable. Let Bledsoe finish the game, worst case you're 3-3 (though they had a better chance to win keeping him in there) then give Romo all week with the first team preparing for Carolina. Bad job by Parcells, and three second half interceptions showed this.
Thoughts on Week 7?
Right before Tony Romo called his first play from scrimmage, Mike Tirico pointed out Tony Romo's stat line: 2/2, 35 yds, 1 TD. But, as Tirico went on to say, these were not only his statistics for this season, they were the statistics for Tony Romo's ENTIRE CAREER.
I've had as much fun with "Romo Watch 2006" as the next guy, and Romo shuffling around the pocket like a windup Jake Plummer doll was great fun, but how in the world do you toss him into that situation and expect something good to happen. The score was only 12-7 at halftime and the Cowboys had done absolutely nothing in the first 20 minutes. The game was still within reach. It's sad that Bledsoe was the fall guy. Yes, there was the safety and the interception and Drew Bledsoe cannot be absolved of all blame here, but the real culprit was the Cowboys lack of a running game.
On the safety: when the Cowboys had the ball on their own one-inch yard line (great punt and coverage downfield by the Giants) they opted to throw on both first and second down. Why? Because the Cowboys had no confidence in their running game. Conventional wisdom says you run the ball there, and if the situations were reversed you can bet Brandon Jacobs would have charged through the line devouring three Cowboys and the referee while leaving, in his wake, an astronomical swath of destruction. It's not like the Giants were going to pack 11 guys in the box in that situation. If Julius Jones or Marion Barber breaks through that line you're looking at a replay of Garrison Hearst in 1998 when he took the ball, pretty much untouched, for 96 yards. Hard to imagine not getting at least a couple of yards to help out your punter.
And if you're committed to the pass in that situation, run the play in shotgun formation. Give your quarterback a better view of what's coming at him. Maybe you want to make the defense think run, but when Lavar Arrington is practically on top of the line of scrimmage and foaming at the mouth, a few extra steps can make a big difference. And speaking of Arrington, isn't it pretty standard that you find a way to block the twitching linebacker who's screaming, "I'm gonna break you in half, white boy"? Could you shift the line to make sure he doesn't tear Drew Bledsoe's head off? Maybe next time the Cowboys should let some 14 year old kid from El Paso picks these plays with his Playstation controller. Isn't the L1 button slide protection?
The interception on the goalline, on the other hand, was prototypical Bledsoe. But if the Cowboys could muster any yards on the ground, that second and goal from the four is probably second and goal from the two and that pass is never thrown. The Cowboys had so little faith in their running game that their first touchdown came on a Drew Bledsoe bootleg keeper on first down from the one yard line. They sent the slowest guy on the field around the right end on that play? That's like asking a man with no hands to hold your drink. Sure he can rest it between his nubs but it's not pretty and there's often spilling. (Sidenote: Last night's game had the two most exciting plays in football occur only 15 minutes apart: a safety and a Drew Bledsoe scramble for a touchdown. Not sure if this has ever happened before, I'm calling ELIAS to confirm).
But enough about the football game, how about the tension between Kornheiser and Theisman in the booth? I think this stems from the fact that Theisman is an idiot and Kornheiser isn't, but I'm not really sure. When they were talking about how Michael Strahan was approaching Lawrence Taylor's all-time Giants record in sacks and Theisman said something about being the victim of some of those, I was positively willing Kornheiser to say something like,"That reminds me, Joe, didn't LT violently sack you that one time and break your leg in three places? And wasn't that hit immortalized in the opening sequence of the Tecmo Super Bowl video game?" followed by Theisman grabbing him by the throat and calling him a bald, pencil-necked, weaselly, journalist bitch. If only I was better at mind control.
Not much else I want to say right now about Week 7. The overproduced circus that is MNF was entertaining enough last night to write volumes. Ian, please speak on the Philly game.
I agree with most of your Cowboy-Giants points, so we can put that to bed after you answer me this question: Does not smart money say the Giants win that division AND have as good a shot as anyone to get the 2 seed in the NFC? Does not smart money also say that the Giants, carrying the New York sports team torch, will get their fans unreasonably confident and abbrasive, followed by the inevitable collapse when it matters most, leaving their fans angry and still abbrasive?
The Eagles traveling to Tampa was a definite trap game for Philly. They're used to playing those huge NFC East games and are coming off a hard fought game in New Orleans. Tampa Bay is easy to overlook. Remember that the Bucs had been playing well for three weeks, they're the home team, they're still well coached, they shoot cannons at enemies, and Philly has yet to have a bye week to rest. (That bye week can't come soon enough, they're running out of gas and losing ground to the Giants.) So anyway, Tampa comes out like a ball of fire against a flat footed Philly team and jumps out to a 17-0 lead. McNabb starts to realize what's going on and turns it up a notch, teaming with Brian Westbrook to put up major yards and points in the second half to take a lead late. And then, of course, it takes a Matt Bryant miracle 62 yard field goal - one yard off the record - to win it. Stuff happens...usually to Philly fans.
My Power Rankings have four familiar faces, though faces 3 and 4 are both closing in on 1 and 2.
1. Chicago
2. Indy
3. Denver
4. Pats
My fifth team is not the Saints, as their record implies. I think those G-Men of New York are playing some great football, and would beat the Saints straight up. And even though I hate Dallas, I feel bad that they ran into Jacksonvilles, Philly, and New York when those teams were playing their absolute best football. Jax and Philly took a major tumble afterward their Dallas games, and early in the year the Giants stunk worse than the Bronx. Them's the breaks.
Does the Pats game in Minnesota worry you at all this weekend? It'd be unlike the Patriots to do so, but might they look forward to that Indy game the following week? Speaking of that Indy game, (watch now as I look past the Vikings) won't New England be favored to win that game. That is a run defense that Dillon and Maroney can exploit AND it's at Foxboro.
I won't prognosticate on the Giant just yet. While they've looked good these last few weeks the remainder of that schedule is still very difficult. Do they have as good a shot as anyone at that Number 2 seed? Sure, especially with Seattle relegated to a backfield of Seneca Wallace and Maurice Morris for a couple of weeks. As for Giants fans there are two kinds: 1) Giants-Yankees fans and 2) Giants-Mets fans. Guess which I can't tolerate?
The Patriots in Minnesota is definitely a game we can't overlook. While nothing makes sense in the NFL, the Vikings did beat the Seahawks at Qwest Field (that 12th man gimmick has run its course) and they made a pretty good run at the Bears earlier in the season. The Patriots can run the ball with anyone, but the Vikings are no slouch in the ground game either (Note to Chester Taylor: after you make the Pro Bowl this season, make sure to take Steve Hutchinson out to a nice steak dinner).
On the Indy game: Thank goodness Peyton Manning had the game he did against Washington because I didn't want him getting his 400 yard passing jollies against the Patriots. Now that that's out of his system he's ready to be the same old Foxboro-Peyton in two weeks: confounded by Belicheck's blitzes and seethingly jealous of Tom Brady. I guarantee you his wife/girlfriend/Marvin Harrison is nowhere near as hot as Bridget Moynahan. And speaking of really attractive women dating sports stars, what's with the Kutcher-Moore relationships here? Brady is seven years younger than Moynahan. Tony Parker is seven years younger than Eva Longoria. And Alyssa Milano is 21 years older than the Florida Marlins organization. I guess star athletes choose not to settle down with the younger hot celebrities, and that bodes well for us studly sports bloggers (JBiel, whaddup?).
I: I will say this: the Bledsoe interception was terrible. Just terrible. I was shocked, however, that he was lifted for the second half. After a rough start, which the whole country could see was due to a terrible Offensive Line, Bledsoe started moving that offense. The O-Line was so bad that they started rolling out Drew Bledsoe to buy him time, and he had success doing this. They were down 12-7 at half. Last week they had 3 points at half against Houston, and broke out in the second half. I am shocked that Parcells buried the Dallas season after 7 weeks, just to satisfy some unknowledgeable fans who think Tony Romo is the next Tom Brady. This just in: Backup quarterbacks with no playing experience should not be playing when a team is a contender. Take your lumps with your vet. It's why McNair and Brunell have jobs. Fans fell in love with the Romo story, and the fact that his name was Romo. If his name was Horowitz, he never would have endeared himself to Dallas fandom. I truly believe this.
Anyway, my point is, the winner of that game was in first place and they were only down 5 at the half after getting the last score of the half. To make that move then was unacceptable. Let Bledsoe finish the game, worst case you're 3-3 (though they had a better chance to win keeping him in there) then give Romo all week with the first team preparing for Carolina. Bad job by Parcells, and three second half interceptions showed this.
Thoughts on Week 7?
Right before Tony Romo called his first play from scrimmage, Mike Tirico pointed out Tony Romo's stat line: 2/2, 35 yds, 1 TD. But, as Tirico went on to say, these were not only his statistics for this season, they were the statistics for Tony Romo's ENTIRE CAREER.
I've had as much fun with "Romo Watch 2006" as the next guy, and Romo shuffling around the pocket like a windup Jake Plummer doll was great fun, but how in the world do you toss him into that situation and expect something good to happen. The score was only 12-7 at halftime and the Cowboys had done absolutely nothing in the first 20 minutes. The game was still within reach. It's sad that Bledsoe was the fall guy. Yes, there was the safety and the interception and Drew Bledsoe cannot be absolved of all blame here, but the real culprit was the Cowboys lack of a running game.
On the safety: when the Cowboys had the ball on their own one-inch yard line (great punt and coverage downfield by the Giants) they opted to throw on both first and second down. Why? Because the Cowboys had no confidence in their running game. Conventional wisdom says you run the ball there, and if the situations were reversed you can bet Brandon Jacobs would have charged through the line devouring three Cowboys and the referee while leaving, in his wake, an astronomical swath of destruction. It's not like the Giants were going to pack 11 guys in the box in that situation. If Julius Jones or Marion Barber breaks through that line you're looking at a replay of Garrison Hearst in 1998 when he took the ball, pretty much untouched, for 96 yards. Hard to imagine not getting at least a couple of yards to help out your punter.
And if you're committed to the pass in that situation, run the play in shotgun formation. Give your quarterback a better view of what's coming at him. Maybe you want to make the defense think run, but when Lavar Arrington is practically on top of the line of scrimmage and foaming at the mouth, a few extra steps can make a big difference. And speaking of Arrington, isn't it pretty standard that you find a way to block the twitching linebacker who's screaming, "I'm gonna break you in half, white boy"? Could you shift the line to make sure he doesn't tear Drew Bledsoe's head off? Maybe next time the Cowboys should let some 14 year old kid from El Paso picks these plays with his Playstation controller. Isn't the L1 button slide protection?
The interception on the goalline, on the other hand, was prototypical Bledsoe. But if the Cowboys could muster any yards on the ground, that second and goal from the four is probably second and goal from the two and that pass is never thrown. The Cowboys had so little faith in their running game that their first touchdown came on a Drew Bledsoe bootleg keeper on first down from the one yard line. They sent the slowest guy on the field around the right end on that play? That's like asking a man with no hands to hold your drink. Sure he can rest it between his nubs but it's not pretty and there's often spilling. (Sidenote: Last night's game had the two most exciting plays in football occur only 15 minutes apart: a safety and a Drew Bledsoe scramble for a touchdown. Not sure if this has ever happened before, I'm calling ELIAS to confirm).
But enough about the football game, how about the tension between Kornheiser and Theisman in the booth? I think this stems from the fact that Theisman is an idiot and Kornheiser isn't, but I'm not really sure. When they were talking about how Michael Strahan was approaching Lawrence Taylor's all-time Giants record in sacks and Theisman said something about being the victim of some of those, I was positively willing Kornheiser to say something like,"That reminds me, Joe, didn't LT violently sack you that one time and break your leg in three places? And wasn't that hit immortalized in the opening sequence of the Tecmo Super Bowl video game?" followed by Theisman grabbing him by the throat and calling him a bald, pencil-necked, weaselly, journalist bitch. If only I was better at mind control.
Not much else I want to say right now about Week 7. The overproduced circus that is MNF was entertaining enough last night to write volumes. Ian, please speak on the Philly game.
I agree with most of your Cowboy-Giants points, so we can put that to bed after you answer me this question: Does not smart money say the Giants win that division AND have as good a shot as anyone to get the 2 seed in the NFC? Does not smart money also say that the Giants, carrying the New York sports team torch, will get their fans unreasonably confident and abbrasive, followed by the inevitable collapse when it matters most, leaving their fans angry and still abbrasive?
The Eagles traveling to Tampa was a definite trap game for Philly. They're used to playing those huge NFC East games and are coming off a hard fought game in New Orleans. Tampa Bay is easy to overlook. Remember that the Bucs had been playing well for three weeks, they're the home team, they're still well coached, they shoot cannons at enemies, and Philly has yet to have a bye week to rest. (That bye week can't come soon enough, they're running out of gas and losing ground to the Giants.) So anyway, Tampa comes out like a ball of fire against a flat footed Philly team and jumps out to a 17-0 lead. McNabb starts to realize what's going on and turns it up a notch, teaming with Brian Westbrook to put up major yards and points in the second half to take a lead late. And then, of course, it takes a Matt Bryant miracle 62 yard field goal - one yard off the record - to win it. Stuff happens...usually to Philly fans.
My Power Rankings have four familiar faces, though faces 3 and 4 are both closing in on 1 and 2.
1. Chicago
2. Indy
3. Denver
4. Pats
My fifth team is not the Saints, as their record implies. I think those G-Men of New York are playing some great football, and would beat the Saints straight up. And even though I hate Dallas, I feel bad that they ran into Jacksonvilles, Philly, and New York when those teams were playing their absolute best football. Jax and Philly took a major tumble afterward their Dallas games, and early in the year the Giants stunk worse than the Bronx. Them's the breaks.
Does the Pats game in Minnesota worry you at all this weekend? It'd be unlike the Patriots to do so, but might they look forward to that Indy game the following week? Speaking of that Indy game, (watch now as I look past the Vikings) won't New England be favored to win that game. That is a run defense that Dillon and Maroney can exploit AND it's at Foxboro.
I won't prognosticate on the Giant just yet. While they've looked good these last few weeks the remainder of that schedule is still very difficult. Do they have as good a shot as anyone at that Number 2 seed? Sure, especially with Seattle relegated to a backfield of Seneca Wallace and Maurice Morris for a couple of weeks. As for Giants fans there are two kinds: 1) Giants-Yankees fans and 2) Giants-Mets fans. Guess which I can't tolerate?
The Patriots in Minnesota is definitely a game we can't overlook. While nothing makes sense in the NFL, the Vikings did beat the Seahawks at Qwest Field (that 12th man gimmick has run its course) and they made a pretty good run at the Bears earlier in the season. The Patriots can run the ball with anyone, but the Vikings are no slouch in the ground game either (Note to Chester Taylor: after you make the Pro Bowl this season, make sure to take Steve Hutchinson out to a nice steak dinner).
On the Indy game: Thank goodness Peyton Manning had the game he did against Washington because I didn't want him getting his 400 yard passing jollies against the Patriots. Now that that's out of his system he's ready to be the same old Foxboro-Peyton in two weeks: confounded by Belicheck's blitzes and seethingly jealous of Tom Brady. I guarantee you his wife/girlfriend/Marvin Harrison is nowhere near as hot as Bridget Moynahan. And speaking of really attractive women dating sports stars, what's with the Kutcher-Moore relationships here? Brady is seven years younger than Moynahan. Tony Parker is seven years younger than Eva Longoria. And Alyssa Milano is 21 years older than the Florida Marlins organization. I guess star athletes choose not to settle down with the younger hot celebrities, and that bodes well for us studly sports bloggers (JBiel, whaddup?).
Friday, October 20, 2006
Football Friday: Week 7
Editors' note: Every week, these two idiots will play a Pick 'Em NFL game. The object is for each editor to pick four seemingly even NFL matchups from the upcoming weekend, challenging the other pick to the winners. A running record will be tallied. Feel free to play along at home. Leave comments with your own picks if you want to go on the record. Standings (Last week in parenthesis)
Ian 13-7 (2-2)
Saj 10-10 (1-3)
1:30 PM
S: Okay, I have a new strategy. Every week I will make my picks and then bet large sums of money that I am wrong. That should work, right? I mean we're not even dealing with handicaps here and I'm 10-10. Disgraceful. Here are your four games:
Carolina at Cincinnati (Sunday, 1:00)
Pittsburgh at Atlanta (Sunday, 1:00)
Green Bay at Miami (Sunday, 1:00)
NY Giants at Dallas (Monday, 8:30)
A bit of gamesmanship here, Ian: I gave you the Dallas game yet again just to piss you off; have fun picking Bledsoe and company against the surging Giants. I also made it impossible for you to give me the Miami game because I know I could not keep myself from picking Miami this week. One of these days they'll win a game and on that day I will be vindicated. Joe-Joe for life.
Ian 13-7 (2-2)
Saj 10-10 (1-3)
1:30 PM
S: Okay, I have a new strategy. Every week I will make my picks and then bet large sums of money that I am wrong. That should work, right? I mean we're not even dealing with handicaps here and I'm 10-10. Disgraceful. Here are your four games:
Carolina at Cincinnati (Sunday, 1:00)
Pittsburgh at Atlanta (Sunday, 1:00)
Green Bay at Miami (Sunday, 1:00)
NY Giants at Dallas (Monday, 8:30)
A bit of gamesmanship here, Ian: I gave you the Dallas game yet again just to piss you off; have fun picking Bledsoe and company against the surging Giants. I also made it impossible for you to give me the Miami game because I know I could not keep myself from picking Miami this week. One of these days they'll win a game and on that day I will be vindicated. Joe-Joe for life.
1:51 PM
I: If I ever find the time and motivation, I'm going to go through out blogs and find all my dead-on predictions. I don't mean picking a certain game, I mean things like: "Miami is the most overrated team heading into the season," and "watch out for multiple T.O. T.D's" against the Texans. Afterall, if we don't get picked up by a paying employer, the best part about this blog will be looking back on all broad predictions 6 months from now.
Anyway, good strategy on Miami. I usually look for games that will dupe you into making the wrong pick, much like you're now doing with Dallas. Chin up, though; a .500 record might win the NL West some day.
Here you go, buddy. When picking these, I realized there's never been more deviation of difficulty between the first four and next four games.
San Diego at Kansas City (Sunday, 1:00)
Detroit at New York Jets (Sunday, 1:00)
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (Sunday, 1:00)
Arizona at Oakland (Sunday, 4:15)
2:53 PM
Right you are on the deviation in difficulties. I can't go 4-0 this week (because I can't pick the Jets. Ever) but if I don't go 3-1 this week then I'll be just flabbergasted.
SAN DIEGO
In German, San Diego means "a whale's vagina." Have you ever tried running the ball in or around a whale's vagina? It's not easy. Not easy at all. And with Trent Green still out of commission the Chiefs have to rely on Damon Huard and/or Brodie Croyle to man the offense. That means lots of touches for Larry Johnson for not that many yards against a pretty darn good defense. And speaking of exuberance, does anyone else notice how incredibly jazzed up Philip Rivers' is after a good play? Jumping up and down and acting a fool? I love it.
DETROIT
You completely set me up with this one, thank you. I can't pick the Jets, I have to stand by my buddy Jon Kitna and you knew all of this. On the bright side the cable is finally on in my new place so I can be reminded of exactly how terrible it is to ALWAYS GET THE JETS GAMES IN NEW YORK CITY. Man I hate the Jets.
PHILLY
This is what you came up with? I mean come on. This can't be one of the top eight hardest games to pick this week. What about Minnesota at Seattle or Washington at Indy? Do the Eagles and Bucs even have to play? Donovan McNabb, if you're reading this, here's what you do. When you go out for the coin toss just say, "Listen, the guys are really tired from the New Orleans game last week, what if we just agreed upon a score and called it a day? You know something respectable we can both live with. 20-17? You guys can even have a couple of interceptions, maybe a fumble recovery, what do you say? I mean Lito already left for the day, and Coach Reid is taking a nap." It's a deal Tampa Bay would be crazy not to take.
ARIZONA
So this is the trendy pick for the Oakland Raiders first win. But I don't see it. I don't see it at all, not against the Cardinals, a team that was four flukey plays from beating the Chicago Bears. Granted they should have put the game away when they had the chance, but that doesn't mean they didn't have the ability to do it. The Oakland Raiders "end to futility" watch will have to wait until December 3rd when they host the Texans or December 31st when they visit the Jets in the Meadowlands. They'll still be futile, but maybe not without a win. Sidenote: The Oakland D-line vs. the Arizona O-line is the mini-battle of the week. We'll finally find out what happens when the blockable object meets the object that effectively doesn't exist. Something has got to give.
You're up.
5:29 PM
"We'll finally find out what happens when the blockable object meets the object that effectively doesn't exist. Something has got to give." Brilliant line, perhaps the best of our fledgling blog. And you're spot on about my Jets strategy. You use my foolish Cowboy love against me, so I reciprocate the gesture my capitalizing on your overwhelming hatred of the Jets. Still, don't forget who you're dealing with (cough, 13-7). I have correctly made all Cowboys picks, including the loss in Philly. Speaking of Philly, be careful, my young padawan. Your cockiness might be your downfall. Either that or your drinking problem.
Yikes, I'm at a yuge disadvantage this week. I'm hoping to break even this week before retaking momentum in Week 8. Without further ado...
Game 1: Carolina @ Cincinatti: Tough pick. The Panthers are hot with 4 wins in a row after opening with back to back losses. What's more, the second of those losses was that flukish lateral play, so you can almost look at it as five wins in a row coming into this. Cincinatti, on the other hand, is a strong team playing at home. It's really hard picking against that. But I will anyway. Why? Because despite the Bengals' talent, it's becoming clear that they're not that good against other good teams - especially physical good teams, like the Steelers, Patriots, and Panthers. Am I saying the Bengals are soft? No. But they're not exactly hard. [Insert typical Saj phallic joke here] Pick: Carolina
Game 2: Pittsburgh @ Atlanta: I just have no idea. That Giants win in Atlanta last week really shook me up. I have been hating on New York while loving Atlanta all year. The lesson, as Joe Morgan might point out if he were a football analyst, "when your quarterback throws a pick and fumbles four times, you have a worse chance to win the game than if he didn't do any of those things." On the other side, you have a Steelers team that thinks they have found their way, when all they've done is improve to 2-4 by hosting and beating a 2-3 Kansas City Chiefs team. Long story short, I'm not high on either one of these teams, which is more than I can say for Mike Vick, who seems like he's always playing high. Home team pulls it out. Pick: Atlanta
Game 3: Green Bay @ Miami: A real battle of the titans - thanks a lot. In fact, having the Titans instead of one of these teams might even improve the game, which is really saying something. This doesn't even deserve my time. My logic for picking this one is simple: If I gave you the game, you'd take Miami. But since you're wrong as often as you are right, that doesn't help me in itself. What does help me is that if you pick Miami, they lose. So I take the Pack. Pick: Green Bay
Game 4: New York Giants @ Dallas: T.O. is trying to take the Cowboys hostage. Team not names the Texans are begging balls to get throw to T.O. He's always covered! Why do you think Julius Jones is breaking 100 yards every week and Terry Glenn, in all her glory, is on pace for a Pro-Bowl appearance? It's because NFL defenses are concerned about the best receiver in the game. Marvin Harrison didn't get a TD catch until Week 6, but his team still is undefeated. Good receivers get attention and their numbers go down. It happened to Harrison, it happened to Moss, and it's happening to Johnson. But T.O. can't accept this. He has a gun to the Cowboys' head, ready to make the Cowboys season unravel faster than a Grady Little bullpen decision. Parcells and Bledsoe are hanging on for dear life. I just hope someone is getting through to Owens: Stay a decoy and we'll get into the playoffs. Demand the ball and we won't.
Where am I going with this? It's Monday Night Football. It's a national audience. T.O. will demand the ball. Pick: New York.
Baseball: NLCS and World Series
7:04 AM
I: I know it's your turn to give the picks first, but I just want to get some baseball out of the way.
That was a truly fantastic Game 7. Not only was it a good game, it was quite representative of a wacky postseason. Examples:
As for the World Series itself, my quick thoughts:
I: I know it's your turn to give the picks first, but I just want to get some baseball out of the way.
That was a truly fantastic Game 7. Not only was it a good game, it was quite representative of a wacky postseason. Examples:
- There have been six series played thus far this post season. The underdog has won five of them. Only in the Mets-Dodgers series has the favorite come out on top. Tony LaRussa will surely share this with his club.
- The Tigers and the Cardinals were arguably the worst playoff team from their respective league, and inarguably playing the worst baseball of any playoff teams heading into the playoffs. I brought this up before the NLCS began, when the Tigers were rolling, as a hope for Cardinals fans.
- If you were to tell the Cardinals that, in the NLCS, Pujols would have one RBI and the Cardinals would lose both Chris Carpenter starts...they'd immediately turn their thoughts to the Rams.
- John Maine and Oliver Perez start Game 6 and 7 back to back in a Championship Series???
- If you were to tell the Mets that John Maine would pitch 5 scoreless in Game 6 and Oliver Perez would go 6 innings of one-run ball in Game 7, they'd say "book us tickets to Detroit."
- Oliver Perez will really dissapoint Mets fans next year...but he was magnificent until that Rolen at bat.
- Endy Chavez robbing the Rolen homerun was the best play I have seen in a long time. (I actually slapped my forehead while alone in my room and noticed my mouth agape.) If the Mets had won the game, it would go down as perhaps the greatest defensive play in baseball history; maybe second to Willie Mays at the Polo Grounds. The Chavez play, especially considering the double play, was probably the better play, but the Mays Catch was in the World Series.
- Jeff Suppan was the NLCS MVP. And deservedly so.
As for the World Series itself, my quick thoughts:
- I give the Cardinals a better shot to upset the Tigers than I did the Tigers to upset the Yankees. However, I feel that would be an irresponsible way to look at the series. The difference in the two matchups? The Tigers have pitching, the Yankees did not.
- The time off the Tigers have received is interesting. There couldn't be more disparity between the two World Series teams. The ALCS started first and it was a sweep; the NLCS started second and it went seven games. This could benefit either team, really...which is good for the Cards because they can use all the variables they can get. All I know is, Zumaya loved that week off.
- Playoff rotations if I were managing: St. Louis: Save Carpenter for Game 3 and Suppan for Game 4. St. Louis is on enough fumes as it is. Go Marquis in Game 1 and save Weaver on full rest for Game 2. If it goes 6 games, bring back Carpenter on 3 days rest and Suppan for Game 7 on 3 days. Detroit: Robertson, Rogers moved up to Game 2 (to start Games 2 and 6 at home) Bonderman (want him in Game 7), Verlander.
- Tigers in 5.
Notes on your comments and comments of my own:
The Cardinals did not lose both Chris Carpenter starts. Carpenter got the no decision in his first start (game 2) and the Cards won the game when they put up three runs on Billy Wagner.
I don't think the Cardinals let Jason Marquis pitch a marketing strategy let alone Game 1 of the World Series, but I agree with you on the Cardinal rotation. La Russa will probably throw Reyes for Game 1 and Weaver for Game 2, then the day off, and then Carpenter for Game 3 at home where he pitches phenomenally. The alternative would be both Weaver and Carpenter on short rest in Detroit and if they do that, well then, the terrorists have already won.
I'm not entirely sure how Jim Leyland will set his rotation after that short vacation they had and I'm not even going to pretend that I know which way is the best to set it. Any of their four starters could pitch Game 1 and I'm guessing Leyland will keep the rotation as is: Robertson, Verlander, Rogers, Bonderman. And speaking of interminable amounts of rest between starts, remember how well Verlander pitched on long rest in the Yankee series? It's been eleven days since he last pitched. Eleven days. In the past eleven days there have been 1.1 billion videos watched on youtube, I've shaved twice, and scientists began, and completed, construction on the world's first time machine. A lot has happened in the last eleven days, except Justin Verlander has not stepped foot on a pitching mound. Ditto Zumaya.
Yes, that Endy Chavez catch was ridiculous. I was in a bar somewhere in midtown Manhattan when it happened and the atmosphere (this may be semi-sacrilegious) was a decently watered down imitation of Boston in 2004. People were back-slapping and high-fiving and calling Joe Buck a douchebag. Just like in Boston. Until...
The Mets got Molina-ed. They got Molina-ed good. Yadier "I'm not as fat as my brothers" Molina hit a two-run game winning homer in the top of the ninth. To get to the bottom of the complete improbability of this ever happening I'm going to throw out some numbers: .274, 417, 6, 87, 5. Care to guess what these numbers represent? No? Okay, I'll tell you.
The first number is Yadier Molina's ON BASE PERCENTAGE. Yes, you read that correctly. ON BASE PERCENTAGE. His OBP was almost sixty points lower than Albert Pujols' batting average.
The second is the number of at bats he had this year, fairly standard for a catcher, and the third is the number of homeruns he hit. Six homeruns in 417 at bats. That's about one every seventy at bats. If you assume he gets an average of four at bats a game, that's a homerun for every seventeen regular season games. And this was the youngest Molina's second homerun of a postseason in which he was playing his eleventh game.
Finally, the fourth and fifth numbers relate to the svelte Mr. Aaron Heilman, the man who most directly got Molina-ed. Eighty seven is the number of innings Heilman pitched this season (with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP) and five is the number of homeruns he has surrendered. That's a homerun every 17 innings or so against, on average, hitters who are a good deal better than Yadier Molina. And he was pitching in Shea Stadium which was, despite the very competent Mets offense, the fifth worst park for the long ball this year. And the Mets were 7th in MLB in homeruns with 96 of their 200 homers being hit at home. Assuming the statistics for homeruns per game held from September 6th through the end of the season, visiting teams hit only 60 homeruns at Shea Stadium. What in the name of Aaron f****** Boone happened last night??
Finally, I have to mention that bottom of the ninth. Down two runs, bases loaded, two outs, and the Mets had their best hitter at the plate. If you wrote that scenario into a movie script it would get nixed for being too trite. I swear if Beltran had hit a homerun Oliver Stone would have began shooting a conspiracy theory film the very next day (Kevin Costner as Tony La Russa?) But Beltran struck out on three straight pitches against Adam Wainwright, a guy who had already given up two base hits and a walk to load the bases. I defer to my friend Jim, a diehard Mets fans:
"They had him (Wainwright) rattled. You could see his nerves were getting to him. He bore down, though.. he bore down and threw an amazing pitch when it mattered most. Beltran has to swing at it, no matter how good it is. The pitch before that, the one he fouled off, looked like a hanger.. it was inside, so location was good, but I felt that Beltran should've been able to put a better swing on that pitch. I felt like THAT was the pitch that turned the at bat... not the gem of a curve that followed. I mean, I don't see him putting wood on that pitch even if he swings.. but he has to swing. bottom line, he has to swing..."
And Jim is right. That pitch Wainwright threw was absolutely filthy. It was the second called third strike of the inning on a devastating curveball that was dead in the strike zone. But with the count at 0-2, Beltran had to swing at it. But I still love you, Carlos. I still love you.
Cardinals in six. Think red.
Sorry, my bad. I meant Carpenter didn't get any wins.
Monday, October 16, 2006
Baseball: NLCS
9:00 AM
I: This NLCS is turning out to be pretty good...even if the winner is fodder for the juggernaut known as the Detroit Tigers (who can believe I'm even saying that?). Zumaya's sore wrist even gets a week of recooperation time. Still, with the Tigers having so much mojo, maybe the week off can get them rusty giving the National League champions a shot.
I'd like to see how much chance you give either NL team to win the World Series. Rank the following in order of probability, and once I see how you like the NL team's chances, we'll circle back to talking NLCS:
The National League team beats the Detroit Tigers in the World Series.
The Chicago Bears win at least 15 games in the regular season.
The New England Patriots get the top seed in the AFC.
Roger Federer and Tiger Woods combine to win six majors next year.
Sorry for the delay in posting. Some of us have "jobs" and"responsibilities" and "lives." To rank the above four scenarios from likeliest to unlikeliest:
Roger Federer and Tiger Woods combine to win six majors next year.
Easily the most likely; these guys are unfathomably good. The only way this does not happen is if they combine to win MORE than six majors. Or if Tiger picks up tennis and Roger picks up golf. Then they'll tie each other for first place in all eight so that's sixteen titles between the two of them. There must be some kind of bonus is their respective Nike contracts for this.
The National League team beats the Detroit Tigers in the World Series.
I don't see why the Mets or Cardinals can't beat the Detroit Tigers. Sure there's all that baseball talk about pitching and hitting and defense, and blah blah blah, but in the end it's only a best of seven series. A small sample size. It could happen. Let's say the Mets win the NLCS. Glavine would probably be ready to start Game 1 and he's exactly the type of pitcher (a good one) that can be effective against the Tigers lineup of free swingers. The 85-year-old El Duque said he'd be okay to pitch if the Mets make the Series and NOBODY throws a 56 mph curveball like El Duque. And what about Darren "Willie Randolph Jr." Oliver throwing those six shut out innings on Saturday night? Freaky things happen in baseball games. And the same can be said for the Cardinals if they win the NLCS but I won't get into it because I don't want to. Forget all this talk about rust and rest and my man-crush on Carlos Beltran. The Mets are going to win the World Series.
The New England Patriots get the top seed in the AFC
I'm not sure how likely this really is, but looking at the schedule for the rest of the season for the Patriots, Colts, Broncos and Chargers it could happen. The Patriots play only three tough opponents for the rest of the season: Indy, Chicago, and Jacksonville, and they have the Colts and Bears at home. A 12-4 record is not only probable, it's the baseline here. The Colts play Washington, Denver, New England, Dallas, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Cincinnati. The Broncos play Indy, Pittsburgh, San Diego (x2), Seattle, Kansas City, and Cincinnati. And the Chargers play Kansas City (x2), St. Louis, Cincinnati, Denver (x2), and Seattle. Tough games all around, and the Broncos and Chargers already have a loss each. So this crazy Pats getting the top seed scenario is slightly more likely than...
The Chicago Bears win at least 15 games in the regular season.
Too much variation in football. If it weren't for three touchdowns scored by the defense and special teams and a missed 41 yard field goal by a guy who was so automatic last year you could schedule your bowel movements by him the Bears would have their first loss at this very moment. Not only did Rex Grossman break the record for most Grossman-related turnovers in a game (set in 1963 by the great Adelai "One arm" Grossman) he broke the record against the CARDINALS DEFENSE. What in Sally Struthers is that all about? At least Adelai Grossman had the excuse of having only one arm. I guess all those sportswriters who keep saying that Rex Grossman has finally grown up are right. He has finally grown up. Into Kurt Warner.
I: This NLCS is turning out to be pretty good...even if the winner is fodder for the juggernaut known as the Detroit Tigers (who can believe I'm even saying that?). Zumaya's sore wrist even gets a week of recooperation time. Still, with the Tigers having so much mojo, maybe the week off can get them rusty giving the National League champions a shot.
I'd like to see how much chance you give either NL team to win the World Series. Rank the following in order of probability, and once I see how you like the NL team's chances, we'll circle back to talking NLCS:
The National League team beats the Detroit Tigers in the World Series.
The Chicago Bears win at least 15 games in the regular season.
The New England Patriots get the top seed in the AFC.
Roger Federer and Tiger Woods combine to win six majors next year.
Sorry for the delay in posting. Some of us have "jobs" and"responsibilities" and "lives." To rank the above four scenarios from likeliest to unlikeliest:
Roger Federer and Tiger Woods combine to win six majors next year.
Easily the most likely; these guys are unfathomably good. The only way this does not happen is if they combine to win MORE than six majors. Or if Tiger picks up tennis and Roger picks up golf. Then they'll tie each other for first place in all eight so that's sixteen titles between the two of them. There must be some kind of bonus is their respective Nike contracts for this.
The National League team beats the Detroit Tigers in the World Series.
I don't see why the Mets or Cardinals can't beat the Detroit Tigers. Sure there's all that baseball talk about pitching and hitting and defense, and blah blah blah, but in the end it's only a best of seven series. A small sample size. It could happen. Let's say the Mets win the NLCS. Glavine would probably be ready to start Game 1 and he's exactly the type of pitcher (a good one) that can be effective against the Tigers lineup of free swingers. The 85-year-old El Duque said he'd be okay to pitch if the Mets make the Series and NOBODY throws a 56 mph curveball like El Duque. And what about Darren "Willie Randolph Jr." Oliver throwing those six shut out innings on Saturday night? Freaky things happen in baseball games. And the same can be said for the Cardinals if they win the NLCS but I won't get into it because I don't want to. Forget all this talk about rust and rest and my man-crush on Carlos Beltran. The Mets are going to win the World Series.
The New England Patriots get the top seed in the AFC
I'm not sure how likely this really is, but looking at the schedule for the rest of the season for the Patriots, Colts, Broncos and Chargers it could happen. The Patriots play only three tough opponents for the rest of the season: Indy, Chicago, and Jacksonville, and they have the Colts and Bears at home. A 12-4 record is not only probable, it's the baseline here. The Colts play Washington, Denver, New England, Dallas, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Cincinnati. The Broncos play Indy, Pittsburgh, San Diego (x2), Seattle, Kansas City, and Cincinnati. And the Chargers play Kansas City (x2), St. Louis, Cincinnati, Denver (x2), and Seattle. Tough games all around, and the Broncos and Chargers already have a loss each. So this crazy Pats getting the top seed scenario is slightly more likely than...
The Chicago Bears win at least 15 games in the regular season.
Too much variation in football. If it weren't for three touchdowns scored by the defense and special teams and a missed 41 yard field goal by a guy who was so automatic last year you could schedule your bowel movements by him the Bears would have their first loss at this very moment. Not only did Rex Grossman break the record for most Grossman-related turnovers in a game (set in 1963 by the great Adelai "One arm" Grossman) he broke the record against the CARDINALS DEFENSE. What in Sally Struthers is that all about? At least Adelai Grossman had the excuse of having only one arm. I guess all those sportswriters who keep saying that Rex Grossman has finally grown up are right. He has finally grown up. Into Kurt Warner.
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