Football Friday: Week 7

Editors' note: Every week, these two idiots will play a Pick 'Em NFL game. The object is for each editor to pick four seemingly even NFL matchups from the upcoming weekend, challenging the other pick to the winners. A running record will be tallied. Feel free to play along at home. Leave comments with your own picks if you want to go on the record. Standings (Last week in parenthesis)

Ian 13-7 (2-2)
Saj 10-10 (1-3)

1:30 PM
S: Okay, I have a new strategy. Every week I will make my picks and then bet large sums of money that I am wrong. That should work, right? I mean we're not even dealing with handicaps here and I'm 10-10. Disgraceful. Here are your four games:

Carolina at Cincinnati (Sunday, 1:00)

Pittsburgh at Atlanta (Sunday, 1:00)

Green Bay at Miami (Sunday, 1:00)

NY Giants at Dallas (Monday, 8:30)

A bit of gamesmanship here, Ian: I gave you the Dallas game yet again just to piss you off; have fun picking Bledsoe and company against the surging Giants. I also made it impossible for you to give me the Miami game because I know I could not keep myself from picking Miami this week. One of these days they'll win a game and on that day I will be vindicated. Joe-Joe for life.

1:51 PM

I: If I ever find the time and motivation, I'm going to go through out blogs and find all my dead-on predictions. I don't mean picking a certain game, I mean things like: "Miami is the most overrated team heading into the season," and "watch out for multiple T.O. T.D's" against the Texans. Afterall, if we don't get picked up by a paying employer, the best part about this blog will be looking back on all broad predictions 6 months from now.

Anyway, good strategy on Miami. I usually look for games that will dupe you into making the wrong pick, much like you're now doing with Dallas. Chin up, though; a .500 record might win the NL West some day.

Here you go, buddy. When picking these, I realized there's never been more deviation of difficulty between the first four and next four games.

San Diego at Kansas City (Sunday, 1:00)

Detroit at New York Jets (Sunday, 1:00)

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (Sunday, 1:00)

Arizona at Oakland (Sunday, 4:15)

2:53 PM

Right you are on the deviation in difficulties. I can't go 4-0 this week (because I can't pick the Jets. Ever) but if I don't go 3-1 this week then I'll be just flabbergasted.

SAN DIEGO

In German, San Diego means "a whale's vagina." Have you ever tried running the ball in or around a whale's vagina? It's not easy. Not easy at all. And with Trent Green still out of commission the Chiefs have to rely on Damon Huard and/or Brodie Croyle to man the offense. That means lots of touches for Larry Johnson for not that many yards against a pretty darn good defense. And speaking of exuberance, does anyone else notice how incredibly jazzed up Philip Rivers' is after a good play? Jumping up and down and acting a fool? I love it.

DETROIT

You completely set me up with this one, thank you. I can't pick the Jets, I have to stand by my buddy Jon Kitna and you knew all of this. On the bright side the cable is finally on in my new place so I can be reminded of exactly how terrible it is to ALWAYS GET THE JETS GAMES IN NEW YORK CITY. Man I hate the Jets.

PHILLY

This is what you came up with? I mean come on. This can't be one of the top eight hardest games to pick this week. What about Minnesota at Seattle or Washington at Indy? Do the Eagles and Bucs even have to play? Donovan McNabb, if you're reading this, here's what you do. When you go out for the coin toss just say, "Listen, the guys are really tired from the New Orleans game last week, what if we just agreed upon a score and called it a day? You know something respectable we can both live with. 20-17? You guys can even have a couple of interceptions, maybe a fumble recovery, what do you say? I mean Lito already left for the day, and Coach Reid is taking a nap." It's a deal Tampa Bay would be crazy not to take.

ARIZONA

So this is the trendy pick for the Oakland Raiders first win. But I don't see it. I don't see it at all, not against the Cardinals, a team that was four flukey plays from beating the Chicago Bears. Granted they should have put the game away when they had the chance, but that doesn't mean they didn't have the ability to do it. The Oakland Raiders "end to futility" watch will have to wait until December 3rd when they host the Texans or December 31st when they visit the Jets in the Meadowlands. They'll still be futile, but maybe not without a win. Sidenote: The Oakland D-line vs. the Arizona O-line is the mini-battle of the week. We'll finally find out what happens when the blockable object meets the object that effectively doesn't exist. Something has got to give.

You're up.

5:29 PM

"We'll finally find out what happens when the blockable object meets the object that effectively doesn't exist. Something has got to give." Brilliant line, perhaps the best of our fledgling blog. And you're spot on about my Jets strategy. You use my foolish Cowboy love against me, so I reciprocate the gesture my capitalizing on your overwhelming hatred of the Jets. Still, don't forget who you're dealing with (cough, 13-7). I have correctly made all Cowboys picks, including the loss in Philly. Speaking of Philly, be careful, my young padawan. Your cockiness might be your downfall. Either that or your drinking problem.

Yikes, I'm at a yuge disadvantage this week. I'm hoping to break even this week before retaking momentum in Week 8. Without further ado...

Game 1: Carolina @ Cincinatti: Tough pick. The Panthers are hot with 4 wins in a row after opening with back to back losses. What's more, the second of those losses was that flukish lateral play, so you can almost look at it as five wins in a row coming into this. Cincinatti, on the other hand, is a strong team playing at home. It's really hard picking against that. But I will anyway. Why? Because despite the Bengals' talent, it's becoming clear that they're not that good against other good teams - especially physical good teams, like the Steelers, Patriots, and Panthers. Am I saying the Bengals are soft? No. But they're not exactly hard. [Insert typical Saj phallic joke here] Pick: Carolina

Game 2: Pittsburgh @ Atlanta: I just have no idea. That Giants win in Atlanta last week really shook me up. I have been hating on New York while loving Atlanta all year. The lesson, as Joe Morgan might point out if he were a football analyst, "when your quarterback throws a pick and fumbles four times, you have a worse chance to win the game than if he didn't do any of those things." On the other side, you have a Steelers team that thinks they have found their way, when all they've done is improve to 2-4 by hosting and beating a 2-3 Kansas City Chiefs team. Long story short, I'm not high on either one of these teams, which is more than I can say for Mike Vick, who seems like he's always playing high. Home team pulls it out. Pick: Atlanta

Game 3: Green Bay @ Miami: A real battle of the titans - thanks a lot. In fact, having the Titans instead of one of these teams might even improve the game, which is really saying something. This doesn't even deserve my time. My logic for picking this one is simple: If I gave you the game, you'd take Miami. But since you're wrong as often as you are right, that doesn't help me in itself. What does help me is that if you pick Miami, they lose. So I take the Pack. Pick: Green Bay

Game 4: New York Giants @ Dallas: T.O. is trying to take the Cowboys hostage. Team not names the Texans are begging balls to get throw to T.O. He's always covered! Why do you think Julius Jones is breaking 100 yards every week and Terry Glenn, in all her glory, is on pace for a Pro-Bowl appearance? It's because NFL defenses are concerned about the best receiver in the game. Marvin Harrison didn't get a TD catch until Week 6, but his team still is undefeated. Good receivers get attention and their numbers go down. It happened to Harrison, it happened to Moss, and it's happening to Johnson. But T.O. can't accept this. He has a gun to the Cowboys' head, ready to make the Cowboys season unravel faster than a Grady Little bullpen decision. Parcells and Bledsoe are hanging on for dear life. I just hope someone is getting through to Owens: Stay a decoy and we'll get into the playoffs. Demand the ball and we won't.

Where am I going with this? It's Monday Night Football. It's a national audience. T.O. will demand the ball. Pick: New York.

Baseball: NLCS and World Series

7:04 AM
I: I know it's your turn to give the picks first, but I just want to get some baseball out of the way.

That was a truly fantastic Game 7. Not only was it a good game, it was quite representative of a wacky postseason. Examples:

• There have been six series played thus far this post season. The underdog has won five of them. Only in the Mets-Dodgers series has the favorite come out on top. Tony LaRussa will surely share this with his club.
• The Tigers and the Cardinals were arguably the worst playoff team from their respective league, and inarguably playing the worst baseball of any playoff teams heading into the playoffs. I brought this up before the NLCS began, when the Tigers were rolling, as a hope for Cardinals fans.
• If you were to tell the Cardinals that, in the NLCS, Pujols would have one RBI and the Cardinals would lose both Chris Carpenter starts...they'd immediately turn their thoughts to the Rams.
• John Maine and Oliver Perez start Game 6 and 7 back to back in a Championship Series???
• If you were to tell the Mets that John Maine would pitch 5 scoreless in Game 6 and Oliver Perez would go 6 innings of one-run ball in Game 7, they'd say "book us tickets to Detroit."
• Oliver Perez will really dissapoint Mets fans next year...but he was magnificent until that Rolen at bat.
• Endy Chavez robbing the Rolen homerun was the best play I have seen in a long time. (I actually slapped my forehead while alone in my room and noticed my mouth agape.) If the Mets had won the game, it would go down as perhaps the greatest defensive play in baseball history; maybe second to Willie Mays at the Polo Grounds. The Chavez play, especially considering the double play, was probably the better play, but the Mays Catch was in the World Series.
• Jeff Suppan was the NLCS MVP. And deservedly so.

As for the World Series itself, my quick thoughts:

• I give the Cardinals a better shot to upset the Tigers than I did the Tigers to upset the Yankees. However, I feel that would be an irresponsible way to look at the series. The difference in the two matchups? The Tigers have pitching, the Yankees did not.
• The time off the Tigers have received is interesting. There couldn't be more disparity between the two World Series teams. The ALCS started first and it was a sweep; the NLCS started second and it went seven games. This could benefit either team, really...which is good for the Cards because they can use all the variables they can get. All I know is, Zumaya loved that week off.
• Playoff rotations if I were managing: St. Louis: Save Carpenter for Game 3 and Suppan for Game 4. St. Louis is on enough fumes as it is. Go Marquis in Game 1 and save Weaver on full rest for Game 2. If it goes 6 games, bring back Carpenter on 3 days rest and Suppan for Game 7 on 3 days. Detroit: Robertson, Rogers moved up to Game 2 (to start Games 2 and 6 at home) Bonderman (want him in Game 7), Verlander.
• Tigers in 5.

Notes on your comments and comments of my own:

The Cardinals did not lose both Chris Carpenter starts. Carpenter got the no decision in his first start (game 2) and the Cards won the game when they put up three runs on Billy Wagner.

I don't think the Cardinals let Jason Marquis pitch a marketing strategy let alone Game 1 of the World Series, but I agree with you on the Cardinal rotation. La Russa will probably throw Reyes for Game 1 and Weaver for Game 2, then the day off, and then Carpenter for Game 3 at home where he pitches phenomenally. The alternative would be both Weaver and Carpenter on short rest in Detroit and if they do that, well then, the terrorists have already won.

I'm not entirely sure how Jim Leyland will set his rotation after that short vacation they had and I'm not even going to pretend that I know which way is the best to set it. Any of their four starters could pitch Game 1 and I'm guessing Leyland will keep the rotation as is: Robertson, Verlander, Rogers, Bonderman. And speaking of interminable amounts of rest between starts, remember how well Verlander pitched on long rest in the Yankee series? It's been eleven days since he last pitched. Eleven days. In the past eleven days there have been 1.1 billion videos watched on youtube, I've shaved twice, and scientists began, and completed, construction on the world's first time machine. A lot has happened in the last eleven days, except Justin Verlander has not stepped foot on a pitching mound. Ditto Zumaya.

Yes, that Endy Chavez catch was ridiculous. I was in a bar somewhere in midtown Manhattan when it happened and the atmosphere (this may be semi-sacrilegious) was a decently watered down imitation of Boston in 2004. People were back-slapping and high-fiving and calling Joe Buck a douchebag. Just like in Boston. Until...

The Mets got Molina-ed. They got Molina-ed good. Yadier "I'm not as fat as my brothers" Molina hit a two-run game winning homer in the top of the ninth. To get to the bottom of the complete improbability of this ever happening I'm going to throw out some numbers: .274, 417, 6, 87, 5. Care to guess what these numbers represent? No? Okay, I'll tell you.

The first number is Yadier Molina's ON BASE PERCENTAGE. Yes, you read that correctly. ON BASE PERCENTAGE. His OBP was almost sixty points lower than Albert Pujols' batting average.

The second is the number of at bats he had this year, fairly standard for a catcher, and the third is the number of homeruns he hit. Six homeruns in 417 at bats. That's about one every seventy at bats. If you assume he gets an average of four at bats a game, that's a homerun for every seventeen regular season games. And this was the youngest Molina's second homerun of a postseason in which he was playing his eleventh game.

Finally, the fourth and fifth numbers relate to the svelte Mr. Aaron Heilman, the man who most directly got Molina-ed. Eighty seven is the number of innings Heilman pitched this season (with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP) and five is the number of homeruns he has surrendered. That's a homerun every 17 innings or so against, on average, hitters who are a good deal better than Yadier Molina. And he was pitching in Shea Stadium which was, despite the very competent Mets offense, the fifth worst park for the long ball this year. And the Mets were 7th in MLB in homeruns with 96 of their 200 homers being hit at home. Assuming the statistics for homeruns per game held from September 6th through the end of the season, visiting teams hit only 60 homeruns at Shea Stadium. What in the name of Aaron f****** Boone happened last night??

Finally, I have to mention that bottom of the ninth. Down two runs, bases loaded, two outs, and the Mets had their best hitter at the plate. If you wrote that scenario into a movie script it would get nixed for being too trite. I swear if Beltran had hit a homerun Oliver Stone would have began shooting a conspiracy theory film the very next day (Kevin Costner as Tony La Russa?) But Beltran struck out on three straight pitches against Adam Wainwright, a guy who had already given up two base hits and a walk to load the bases. I defer to my friend Jim, a diehard Mets fans:

"They had him (Wainwright) rattled. You could see his nerves were getting to him. He bore down, though.. he bore down and threw an amazing pitch when it mattered most. Beltran has to swing at it, no matter how good it is. The pitch before that, the one he fouled off, looked like a hanger.. it was inside, so location was good, but I felt that Beltran should've been able to put a better swing on that pitch. I felt like THAT was the pitch that turned the at bat... not the gem of a curve that followed. I mean, I don't see him putting wood on that pitch even if he swings.. but he has to swing. bottom line, he has to swing..."

And Jim is right. That pitch Wainwright threw was absolutely filthy. It was the second called third strike of the inning on a devastating curveball that was dead in the strike zone. But with the count at 0-2, Beltran had to swing at it. But I still love you, Carlos. I still love you.

Cardinals in six. Think red.

Sorry, my bad. I meant Carpenter didn't get any wins.

Baseball: NLCS

9:00 AM
I: This NLCS is turning out to be pretty good...even if the winner is fodder for the juggernaut known as the Detroit Tigers (who can believe I'm even saying that?). Zumaya's sore wrist even gets a week of recooperation time. Still, with the Tigers having so much mojo, maybe the week off can get them rusty giving the National League champions a shot.

I'd like to see how much chance you give either NL team to win the World Series. Rank the following in order of probability, and once I see how you like the NL team's chances, we'll circle back to talking NLCS:

The National League team beats the Detroit Tigers in the World Series.
The Chicago Bears win at least 15 games in the regular season.
The New England Patriots get the top seed in the AFC.
Roger Federer and Tiger Woods combine to win six majors next year.



Sorry for the delay in posting. Some of us have "jobs" and"responsibilities" and "lives." To rank the above four scenarios from likeliest to unlikeliest:

Roger Federer and Tiger Woods combine to win six majors next year.

Easily the most likely; these guys are unfathomably good. The only way this does not happen is if they combine to win MORE than six majors. Or if Tiger picks up tennis and Roger picks up golf. Then they'll tie each other for first place in all eight so that's sixteen titles between the two of them. There must be some kind of bonus is their respective Nike contracts for this.

The National League team beats the Detroit Tigers in the World Series.

I don't see why the Mets or Cardinals can't beat the Detroit Tigers. Sure there's all that baseball talk about pitching and hitting and defense, and blah blah blah, but in the end it's only a best of seven series. A small sample size. It could happen. Let's say the Mets win the NLCS. Glavine would probably be ready to start Game 1 and he's exactly the type of pitcher (a good one) that can be effective against the Tigers lineup of free swingers. The 85-year-old El Duque said he'd be okay to pitch if the Mets make the Series and NOBODY throws a 56 mph curveball like El Duque. And what about Darren "Willie Randolph Jr." Oliver throwing those six shut out innings on Saturday night? Freaky things happen in baseball games. And the same can be said for the Cardinals if they win the NLCS but I won't get into it because I don't want to. Forget all this talk about rust and rest and my man-crush on Carlos Beltran. The Mets are going to win the World Series.

The New England Patriots get the top seed in the AFC

I'm not sure how likely this really is, but looking at the schedule for the rest of the season for the Patriots, Colts, Broncos and Chargers it could happen. The Patriots play only three tough opponents for the rest of the season: Indy, Chicago, and Jacksonville, and they have the Colts and Bears at home. A 12-4 record is not only probable, it's the baseline here. The Colts play Washington, Denver, New England, Dallas, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Cincinnati. The Broncos play Indy, Pittsburgh, San Diego (x2), Seattle, Kansas City, and Cincinnati. And the Chargers play Kansas City (x2), St. Louis, Cincinnati, Denver (x2), and Seattle. Tough games all around, and the Broncos and Chargers already have a loss each. So this crazy Pats getting the top seed scenario is slightly more likely than...

The Chicago Bears win at least 15 games in the regular season.

Too much variation in football. If it weren't for three touchdowns scored by the defense and special teams and a missed 41 yard field goal by a guy who was so automatic last year you could schedule your bowel movements by him the Bears would have their first loss at this very moment. Not only did Rex Grossman break the record for most Grossman-related turnovers in a game (set in 1963 by the great Adelai "One arm" Grossman) he broke the record against the CARDINALS DEFENSE. What in Sally Struthers is that all about? At least Adelai Grossman had the excuse of having only one arm. I guess all those sportswriters who keep saying that Rex Grossman has finally grown up are right. He has finally grown up. Into Kurt Warner.

Football Friday: Week 6

Editors' note: Every week, these two idiots will play a Pick 'Em NFL game. The object is for each editor to pick four seemingly even NFL matchups from the upcoming weekend, challenging the other pick to the winners. A running record will be tallied. Feel free to play along at home. Leave comments with your own picks if you want to go on the record.

Standings (Last week in parenthesis)

Ian 11-5 (3-1)

Saj 9-7 (3-1)

6:50 AM

I: Look at our records. If this were the NFL,I'd be coasting to a 2 seed and first round bye. You'd be scoreboard watching hoping to get in on some cheap tie-breaker. Man, you're cheap. See if you can make headway with these (I'm definitely trying to bait you with one of these):

Buffalo at Detroit (Sunday 1:00pm)

Philadelphia at New Orleans (Sunday 1:00pm)

Miami at NY Jets (Sunday 4:15pm)

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (Sunday 4:15pm)

11:08am

Talk big while you can, Ian. It's only two games. Speaking of only two games, there are only 13 games on the NFL schedule this week. Six teams have byes. Six teams! I'm not sure why this is alarming to me but it is. Anyway, here are your games conejo:

Carolina at Baltimore (Sunday 1:00pm)

NY Giants at Atlanta (Sunday 1:00pm)

Seattle at St. Louis (Sunday 1:00pm)

Houston at Dallas (Sunday 1:00pm)

Have fun with that last one.

1:27 PM

Two gimmies and two tough ones, therefore the best you can do in the overall standings this week is tie me. Thanks for a stressless Sunday.

Game 1: Carolina @ Baltimore: One of the tough ones. I think Baltimore may have peaked at 4-0, but they're still a good team. The problem is, Jamal Lewis isn't as good as I thought he was. Combine that with average or below average players at every other offensive position (sans the above average Todd Heap) and the Ravens won't be making too much noice down the stretch. They can beat Cleveland twice and maybe even Pittsburgh twice to finish at 10 wins, but this is not a good team - just a good defense. I see Carolina having a very difficult time putting points on the board in Baltimore. If someone were to offer them a total of 13 points for the game, take it or leave it, they'd take it. McNair, like in Weeks 3 and 4, does juuuust enough to win. Pick: Baltimore

Game 2: NY Giants @ Atlanta: One of the gimmies. Atlanta has shown to be the better team in ever facet of the game with the possible exception of quarterback. (And I mean possible, but come on, Vick can't hit receivers.) Add in home field advantage and it's a lock. Pick: Atlanta

Game 3: Seattle @ St. Louis: One of the toughies. Seriously. I don't know who's going to win this game. If we had a spread, I'd take the dog Rams because they get three points. Straight up though, this is really tough. If Shawn Alexander were playing, I'd give it to the Seahawks, but with Morris in their running game, I'm not confident. On the Rams side, there are legit weapons all over the offensive side of the ball, and the Seahawks will look to keep pace with a growing score. Look for Seattle to use a lot of 4 Wide Receiver sets and make it a track meet on the St. Louis turf. Shootout here, and the team with the better coach, quarterback, and receivers win. Pick: Seattle

Game 4: Houston @ Dallas: Please. If it weren't for Oakland traveling to Denver, this would be the lock of the week. This is only Dallas' second home game, and I like them putting up close to 40 points here. Look for a couple T.O. T.D.'s. Pick: Dallas

2:49pm

The Giants game is not a gimmie, but I'm glad you think so you overconfident ass. On to the picks...

DETROIT

I am not making this pick because Jon Kitna is the starting QB for both of my fantasy teams. Again, that is NOT why I am making this pick. Okay, this is why I am making this pick. Admitting that Jon Kitna cannot beat the Buffalo Bills at home is the same as admitting that my fantasy teams are terrible. And that is something, however true, that I refuse to admit. One of my teams also has Kevin Jones. Shoot me.

PHILADELPHIA

Who doesn't love Reggie Bush? Nobody. Nobody doesn't love Reggie Bush. He is really effing good. It's too bad the Eagles are better.

MIAMI

This is a stupid pick. A very stupid pick. But Miami has to finally win a game within their division (right?) and there's no better time than Joe-Joe's second start as a Dolphin. Well there could be a better time. Like when they Green Bay. Or when they play Detroit. But I can't pick the Jets. Ever. I don't care if the Tuna Bowl rivalry has been dead for nigh six seasons, any time I can see the Jets and Jets fans suffer, I take it. So this pick would be doubly satisfying. J-E-T-S!! S-U-C-K!!

KANSAS CITY

This was a tough pick and a great example of why someone who knows absolutely nothing about football (i.e. my friend Lindsey) probably picks this game correctly more often than someone who thinks they know something about football (i.e. me). So I let her do it for me. I was probably going to overthink it and end up picking the Steelers after predicting that this is the game where Ben Roethlisberger finally adds 2+2 and gets 4. But I would be wrong. P.S. as a backup, I flipped a coin. It landed tails: Kansas City. Just too many random determinants coincide here for me to pick against them.\

Good luck, and go Texans.

Baseball: More playoffs

6:58 AM
I: First, let's eradicate the elephant in the room. The Cory Lidle tragedy is obviously a sad story, but it really could have been worse, so let's be glad it wasn't. At the end of the day, when the uniforms come off, all baseball players are workers in society. They're just more famous for what they do. Anyway, too bad. Sad story for baseball yesterday.

Back to on-the-field: The Oakland A's have no homefield advantage in terms of fan support. Empty seats in a Championship Series? That's unacceptable, especially since they haven't been there since 1990. Detroit will be rocking for Games 3-5, and that is why I want them to win the whole thing at this point. And to think, three years ago they were chasing the worst record ever. Good story.

As far as the X's and O's of the ALCS, this has to go the Tigers way. Thought Zito is arguably the best starting pitcher of the series, he has already lost and the Tigers' starting pitching seems to be throwing a better ball right now. Add in the Rodney-Zumaya-Jones option at the end of a game(And no, I cannot believe I just laid praise on Fernando Rodney and Todd Jones), and this team is tough to score runs on. Their lineup is the second best lineup still going in baseball, if for no other reason than they have the knack of getting those huge hits.

Thoughts on the ALCS?


12:15pm
Way to pick the Tigers after they're already up 2-0. Risk taker. Normally people make these picks before the series starts but since we don't have that luxury I am going to retroactively predict that the Athletics will win this series in five games on the strength of their starting pitching. Of course now that proves impossible and I look like an idiot.

Speaking of starting pitching, what happened to the Athletics? You say that Barry Zito is arguably the best pitcher of the series, and considering the job he did on Tuesday that is definitely arguable. Listen here Mets, Yankees, Angels, and other teams looking to throw millions of dollars at a starting pitcher this offseason: Barry Zito is not that good (despite what Scott Boras may tell you). His numbers this season were strikingly similar to his 2004 campaign where he went 11-11 and had a 4.48 ERA playing half his games in his cavernous home park. His WHIP and K/BB were actually worse and his OPS against and ground ball to fly ball ratio were identical. Sure he has pretty hair and a curveball good enough to bring Candy Cummings back from the dead, but he's not worth the 12 to 15 million a year he will get. In fact, very few pitchers are in a world where Josh Johnson can give you a 3.10 ERA and success on the mound can be as fleeting as a professional athlete's relationship with Alyssa Milano.

And what more can be said about Esteban Loaiza aside from the fact that he should have decked Milton Bradley instead of being a huge gaping mangina about it. Okay, so it really wasn't a big deal but I would have loved to see that fight. Maybe Loaiza would get absolutely owned by our angry young friend but he's got three inches and 25 lbs on Bradley. And who would play peacemaker in that fight? Adam Melhuse or Marco Scutaro?

Bottom line: The A's are down two games to none and the Tigers haven't even pitched their two best starting pitchers. As Scooby Doo would say, "Ruh Roh Raggy..."

NLCS?


1:39 PM
The NLCS is tough, as the Cardinals have the best starting pitcher in the series, but the Mets have the best everything else. Often times, however, it comes down to who has the best starting pitcher to clinch those two games. That leaves the team only needing to take two of the remaining five games, while the opponent has to win four of the remaining five. The trick is, of course, to get those two wins from the stud pitcher. Just ask the Twins.

So, I'm taking Mets. They can probably split the Carpenter starts, and their lineup can definitely outslug the Cardinals' lineup in three of the other five games. If, however, the Cardinals do win, it'll be because Carpenter has two wins and Pujols pulled a Carlos Beltran 2004. (I'm looking forward to see if Carlos Beltran 2006 can pull a Carlos Beltran 2004.)

These first two games definitely set the pace for the series. If the Mets can leave Shea up 2-0, it probably shows St. Louis is out of their league, and the series will be done in four or five games. If the Cardinals can salvage a game at Shea, this series is definitely coming back to New York for Game 6 and probably 7, as the Cardinals should take two at home once they prove they can take one on the road.

I refuse to believe that this is the year either the A's or Cardinals finally break through for a World Series victory after all of their great teams earlier in the decade. Both of them have had consistently better teams come up short in recent times.

I'm not only predicting, but I'm hoping for a Tigers-Mets World Series. Two great crowds, two historical teams...that series will have a lot of juice. What are your predictions and what are you hoping for?

3:45pm
In response to being asked for a prediction, Clubber Lang once said,"Prediction? PAIN." And I too predict pain for anyone watching the NLCS this year. It's going to be ugly, ugly stuff. Bad pitching from both teams involved in a series is just no fun to watch. No fun at all.

It's hard to not see a Tigers-Mets World Series. It was my wish to see the Athletics win the World Series but the odds of that happening are looking bleak after the 2-0 defecit they put themselves in.

I don't have much to say about the Cardinals except that Bruce Bochy is the reason they made it to the the NLCS this year. As long as Willie Randolph is smart enough to not pitch to Albert Pujols I think the Mets will be fine. And speaking of fine Mets, how about that Tom Glavine? Interesting and esoteric statistics are great fun!

Final note on the NLCS: Game 4 is fixin' (yes, fixin') to match up pitchers Darren Oliver and Anthony Reyes in quite possibly the worst postseason pitching matchup in history. I'm calling ELIAS to confirm this.


5:36 PM
That's a great observation about Game 4. While I agree that it's much more compelling to watch well pitched series, I would definitely say that the viewing audience prefers slugfests. I think 10-8, 8-7, 9-6, 11-9 games would be very entertaining for the general audience. And it's those types of games that the Cardinals need when Carpenter isn't pitching, so you have a team trying for those scores. I'd much rather watch a pitching duel, but America wouldn't. Remember, these are the same people who will watch American Idol and Dancing with the Stars over The West Wing and Arrested Development.

Back to baseball, did you notice that it was the Tigers and Cardinals who staggered across the finish line? They really collapsed near the end. Now, the Tigers are the hottest team on the planet. Moreover, the Cardinals just ousted the Padres who had to play well to take their division over the Dodgers. Does this mean anything? Might the Cardinals surprise us, showing their midseason form over their September form, just like the Tigers did? How about this: Which is more likely to happen: The Cardinals win their series OR the A's force a Game 6.

5:57pm
I think the public, more than anything, wants to watch a game that progresses quickly. You can have your 11-9 slugfest, but it better be done in less than three and a half hours. I don't think you can make the Tigers-Cardinals corollary here. Different teams in different situations. The Tigers played themselves out of winning the division, the Cardinals almost played themselves out of the playoffs entirely.

I'm going to say that it's more likely that the A's force a Game 6 than the Cardinals win the NLCS. If either will happen is a different question entirely.